ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Give me an example of previous ones. Other than Dec ‘92. Huge pasters aren’t THAT common. They typically are smaller events. Anyways, there’s a long ways to go in this one. Could easily fall apart but today was a good day for model runs since we’re getting inside 6 days now where you’d expect things to start falling apart if they are going to. Hopefully we can keep this strong on guidance for the next couple days and that will get us inside 100 hours.
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Unless this really hugs I don’t think so. Looks like 20s and powder for much of interior with any offshore track.
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Yeah this one is gonna reach a certain point and then slide ENE most likely unless the shortwave mechanics change a lot. The good thing about that is it will likely prolong the CCB snows where that happens so it could give us a higher ceiling. The bad news is that it could be frustrating if you’re just north of the goods. You’d keep expecting the heavy bands to get to you but they never quite reach or they weaken by the time they do.
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Going to post in here just for archive purposes. EPS clusters below
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This look reminds me some of Jan 2011…esp prior to the 1/12/11 storm. Big AK/Bering ridge with -PNA and big -NAO block.
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Check out compared today first Dec ‘96 storm…colder profile in this one but somewhat similar H5 evolution with kicker behind it http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1996/us1206.php#picture
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I’m still not convinced whiff is the primary concern. There is room for this to be too amped too. At 6+ days out though that is going to usually be the case…room for both options.
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Lot of spread on GEFS.
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Can’t see the next frame after 144 but that looks like a run from Ray’s computer. Prob near jackpot for his area back to ORH while SE areas struggle with ptype.
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Ukie is pretty north too. Weird evolution…absolutely torches the Mid-Atlantic despite kind of a coastal track but there’s a lot of energy back in the OH valley so it keeps midlevels from closing off until just south of New England.
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Yeah you want a phased 1/7 system helping with confluence ahead of the 1/10 system. GGEM was better for 1/10 too and I’m betting it’s 1/7 solution helped.
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Wow GGEM came way north.
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Gonna whiff south or be a fringe job this run.
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Almost looks like Feb ‘83 aloft…with a bit of the first storm from Dec ‘96 mixed in (12/6/96) since it comes in slightly more neg tilted and west of ‘83….but just like ‘83, there’s that risk of shooting ENE.
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Yeah the longwave pattern isn’t going to change much but there’s some details that will matter a lot on both threats. For both, what happens to our north and east is going to affect things.
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And the 10th might even be a net gain even if we’re flipping. Esp interior. Hopefully we trend that one just a bit more.
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Don’t hate seeing the north trend stop for now. There’s still 6 days of trends to go and these juiced southern streamers have been known to sneak north again as we get closer.
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It is far from forgone that 1/10 will be mostly rain.
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For 80-90% of this forum, it’s going to be snow if the low tracks anywhere between the benchmark and ACK in the current synoptic setup. Now if we get more of a hugger, then you’re going to introduce more ptype issues. EPS has a lot more hugger solutions so that’s going to be messier…esp southern areas and coastline.
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Don’t think there’s enough room for that with a 50/50 low. But it could get close enough for snow changing to a mix of crap…but right now most guidance is SE of the Euro which was still all snow for SNE outside the cape and islands.
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So for a potential big coastal a week out, we have EPS suite amped and the GEFS mostly a fringe job SE….sounds like the universe is starting to return to normal.
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Yeah the only way cold is an issue is if 1/7 somehow cuts. Any coastal track is going to have plenty of cold.
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I don’t think I’d want a southern stream system cutting inland in model guidance 7 days out. I’d much rather need a little bump north.
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1/10 looks CAD-ish to me. Doubt interior would get wiped…could even be a net gain if you get a decent front-ender. It’s still 10 days so not sure the obsession with it anyway.
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That’s just the starting point. Can always adjust up as we get closer.
