ORH_wxman

EPS are a little more bullish on 1/7 than 1/5…the 1/5 wave a weaker and more seaward but still has some decent members. The 1/7 wave seems to have a lot more members and the mean is closer to the BM.

Yeah that’s been a popular period on the ensembles. Lower probability for something around 1/2. But that one has trended more sheared the last few cycles.

They looked fine to me. But we’re only supposed to ignore clown range these days unless it shows a torch, then we believe it.

Oh yeah I remember you posting here in some of the greats. Didn’t realize you moved to FL. Gonna have to do a weenie storm chase when you get a chance.

This 18z euro panel shows just how close of a miss the weekend system is to being something way better. If that northern stream shortwave comes in just a little further west (maybe 100 mi if that), then you get a phase a probably a nice interior Nuke…but instead it’s a close miss.

Saturday is the day for snow chances. Too warm prior to that. Best chance in CNE and NNE but can’t rule out interior SNE yet.

Yeah quite active. It’s not very cold for NE (in fact we may average AN the first week) but it’s still cold enough for snow threats. Bulk of the cold is out in the plains after the first few days of the month.

No, though both were still bad at ORH (69.6” combined)…but they can’t compete with 1953-54 and 1954-55 which had a pathetic 52.4” combined.

Def doable but quite unlikely. Esp in an El Niño where an SSW is almost certainly going to occur in early January.

1979-80 to 1980-81 were the worst back to back winters on record for BOS in terms of snowfall….34.8” total combined for the two. In order to beat that, they’d need 22.3” or less this winter.

Strawman though…lots of seasons (eps El Niño seasons) made good comebacks without being as prolific as 2015….do we think ‘57-58, ‘65-‘66, ‘66-‘67, ‘02-03 (coastline), ‘12-‘13 (coastline) were all meh winters because we didn’t get 100” in 3 weeks like 2014-15?

Yep. Got used to averaging like 55” per year for a couple decades during the formative years. Anyways, still think we might get something in the interior this weekend. Can’t rule out eastern coast either if we can strengthen a little midlevel circulation before it exits.

The biggest bias has been speed…models have been wayyyy to slow with the MJO propagation. They were trying to stall it in phase 7 for a week-plus like 10 days ago and then less than 3 days later it was already out of phase 7 and right now we’re already in phase 1.

06z gfs went back to showing snow for Saturday night. 00z euro did give about 1-2” over the interior too N of pike. There were a few members on the EPS that did have warning snows but it wasn’t many. Still something to watch…esp interior.

Except in Asia.

That almost looks like a favorable Niña pattern at the end. You have a stout AK/Aleutian ridge with a -NAO and a PV down in Hudson Bay.

Ukie and GFS both trying to get some accumulating snow into southern zones. Really close there. Nice feed of colder 925 temps pulled into the secondary.

Weeklies have been showing a lot of NAO blocking trying to develop during that time the last couple runs….caveats of course on that lead time but it does match what we’d expect after an early January SSW. Im hoping we can bridge the early January pattern to the developing -AO without much of a relaxation in between.

Yeah a lot of times there’s hype about them and they don’t occur but this one is looking pretty likely to occur. Yeah I’m not as worried about the cold aspect in an El Niño because we don’t typically have to deal with a SE ridge like in La Niña. So even if the “bulk of the cold” goes into Europe or somewhere else, you’re still talking a -AO pattern in an El Niño with low SE heights….that’s powderkeg for big storms. I don’t need blizzard at 10F with ball-shriveling cold for a week afterwards…a pattern with lots of highs in the 20s/30s is just fine with me which isn’t far off from peak winter climo as it is.

Yes it would still be useful even if PV goes to other side because it promotes a -AO. When you have that in an El Niño, your chances for big storms drastically increase. As always, no guarantees it works out but also as always, you want as many variables in your favor as possible.

All ensemble guidance is calling for an SSW with a split of the SPV by Jan 5-6.

That’s a very strong cross-guidance signal for a split for 10+ days out. Impressive to see the convergence on the different ensemble suites.

I would have at least given out extra credit points if he said that pattern wouldn’t work in 2023 but instead he just tried to gaslight everyone and say the weeklies were further south than the ‘83 map even though both of them are right in front of us to see. Jan 1958 also had a similar look. What’s funny about Jan ‘58 is even though it was a pretty snowy month (esp interior), there was a storm late that month which was a perfect benchmark track that was mostly rain. Imagine what the discourse would be in here this season if a late January storm in an El Niño produced a mostly rain event on an ideal track….

That’s not even a bad pattern. It’s quite reminiscent of the first half of Feb ‘83.

This happens every winter…everyone looks for the KU cookbook pattern and when it doesn’t show up, there’s some incredibly awful analysis about snow chances…particularly in New England. I understand the margin for error is a lot lower down in the Mid-Atlantic.