ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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1/7 is a really strong sig for this far out but given it’s still a week out I wouldn’t get too committed yet regardless of how bad December was.
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Could be a pretty fun period…esp if we can sort of morph that 1/10 threat into a SWFE front ender type instead of a true cutter.
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Aside from the storm threats over the next 10 days, the LR improved overnight…that NAO blocking is still showing but the N PAC looks a lot better. Poleward EPO ridging showing up post-10th.
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Dewpoints starting to fall below freezing here. Can’t remember the last time we had that.
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Pretty much all of the I-35 corridor cities in TX will get totality. San Antonio/Austin/Waco/Dallas. Waco is right in the middle though so they’ll get it the longest.
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Give us that type of trend a couple more runs and we’re in business.
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Yeah some of those prob had some northern stream insert at some point before turning the corner. That event doesn’t look like a classic phase since there’s a trough out west…but getting a bit of northern stream energy into it prior to it turning north would help out.
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Pounds of goose meat?
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The two systems almost have opposite problems. 1/5 we’re needing a bit more southern stream phasing (ala GGEM) and for 1/7 we need more northern stream injection. That’s what I’d be looking for on each model cycle.
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I honestly have no idea what you’re talking about. The 1/7 setup has a high to the north. It’s not advecting in PAC air as it approaches. It would be drawing down air from that high.
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No it isn’t. It’s cold enough to snow down to Mid-Atlantic.
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I actually agree that 1/7 is still a longshot but I won’t confidently dismiss as easily as you because it’s not a prerequisite to have a ridge out west to get those to gain latitude. You’d just want to see that southern stream a little deeper…incorporate a bit more N stream energy before it tries to turn the corner. We’ve seen several big southern stream storms in the past with a trough out west.
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EPS is really trying to build the -NAO mid-month. Like retrograde that North Atlantic ridge back into Greenland and Baffin/Davis Strait. That would keep things interesting despite a meh N PAC
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Surprised to see this
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You need a bit more northern stream insert on the Euro for 1/7 or you need confluence to lift out a little faster. Plenty of time on that one, but that’s what you’ll want to look for in the coming days.
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Especially when that blocking is starting to CAD the 1-10 system. That one might not have rain for at least NNE.
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GFS suite is producing more northern stream light snow than before. Southern stream doesn’t really phase in well like on GGEM or ICON…but that deeper northern stream does give us a “consolation prize”.
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It’s extremely hard to put a percentage of attribution on a thing like snowfall over a short 5 year period. Snowfall is one of the highest variance weather outcomes we have. Some of the warmth is definitely connected to CC but not all of it.
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Yeah honestly not bad for 8+ days out. That’s a very intriguing setup with plenty of cold too.
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GFS not really biting on 1/5 for a big solution. Does have a general light snow over much of New England though. Maybe 1-2” for many.
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More snow on the season for Scooter than Mitch?
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The old saying is it’s darkest before light. Just keep giving us chances…we got 1/5 and 1/7-8…hopefully at least one of them works. Then who knows…maybe we can flip the script and turn 1/10 into an overrunning threat. Not having chances is probably a lot worse…ala 2020 or even for long stretches last year (though honestly, last year we had a decent number of chances that just failed in a variety of different ways).
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Kind of weird that the 00z Euro suite basically got rid of the 1/5 storm while other guidance all has it. The 06z EPS did bring it back a decent amount just looking now. Not sure what was up with the 00z run. The 00z EPS did have a number of decent hits for 1/7-8 again despite OP being south and wide right. Something to watch still…esp for southern peeps.
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Pattern change starts with the 15th cutter….complete by the 25th.
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And even pre-TWC (we didn’t get cable until late ‘93 though my grandparents had it a couple years earlier) You would just wait until the local news came on and when you saw the snow symbols on the map you immediately perked up
