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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Needed another all-day 40s on New Year’s Eve to have a chance but it looks like NYE is going to be sort of chilly for recent standards. Highs around 34-36 with lows a bit below freezing. Tomorrow morning’s low looks like it will get counterfeited too prior to midnight tomorrow night.
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1/5 got weaker on guidance yesterday but it has come back much stronger today. 1/7-8 has been pretty weak on OP runs today (though 12z GFS tried to clip us) but stronger on the ensembles. Both are still a ways out. We’re talking 6+ days away for 1/5 and 9 days for the following system.
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Mark Rosenthal used to sometimes use “tempest” and we all remember him saying “snowing to beat the band”…he loved that expression.
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EPS was more interested in 1/7 than 1/5 today which was kind of surprising to me based on OP run. Def didn’t agree with the OP on which one was more likely. There are quite a few solid hits for 1/7 on the EPS. The LR did look better too beyond that as you mentioned. Hopefully the cutter turns more into a CAD system.
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You’d think but we haven’t gotten many breaks in the past 4-6 winter months going back to Feb 2022…I guess for your area it’s longer since you kind of got skunked by the Jan 2022 blizzard. We’ll see on these two systems.
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Yeah many of those “non-major teleconnector” storms have late trends. Hopefully we can squeeze on of these into an ideal track.
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That one is def worth watching. Close call…get a little more neg tilt on that sucker and it would be a pretty big storm for eastern areas. Still watching 1/7 too but that one needs a bit more work. Would help if we had a northern stream shortwave trying to dive into it as it hits the east coast to turn it north.
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Most of them are significantly colder. Look at January and esp February temp anomalies in El Niño…a lot of those comeback years had like -6 departures in February. Years like 2007 and 1958…of course 2015 is the extreme example when Feb 2015 became the coldest month on record for a number of places round here.
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Yeah both are still too far out to be using OP runs more than just eye candy (or lack there of) But they seem to be coming back a little stronger as signals on the 12z suite so far. There is a nice cluster of further west members on GEFS at 12z
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GFS trying to give more room for 1/7-8. Still has 1/5 but it’s a bit SE. GGEM is more amped for 1/5 but it’s an interior special. Wide right for 1/7.
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You should be more honest with yourself and I think people would give you more benefit of the doubt. I specifically asked you a couple weeks ago why you thought no changes as far as the eye can see and you told me because were going to stall the MJO in phase 7…well not only did that not happen, we screamed through phases 8/1/2 in a span of like 2 weeks. So…correct for the wrong reason? Make your case for why we shouldn’t treat you as the warm/snowless version of JB…you were pulling this act back in snowy 2010s winters too which is how you earned your post limit. You used to be a decent poster your first few years and then decided it was more fun to troll.
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Yeah if you get a good arctic it’s likely going to work out unless you have a really bad pattern out west. Hell, even a couple years ago the areas near NYC got 40”+ in a few weeks from the below pattern (strong -PNA) but that NAO block was key…and they have a less wiggle room on temps than we do
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The problem is we hardly have any El Niños that look like 72-73 with a good polar domain. It’s a pretty unique year. Maybe 68-69 but that was a weakish Nino…it did have the deep -PDO and -PNA, but obviously huge blocking eventually overcame it. (Not after a horrific Jan ‘69 though)
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If we keep that deeper -PDO influence overwhelming the ENSO signal in the N PAC, then we could be in serious trouble like Jan/Feb ‘73. The only thing on that upper level analog is that the polar region is was pretty awful. I doesn’t seem like that’s going to be the case this winter.
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I would think if we’re getting a high amplitude wave then it should respond. By definition that means we’re getting a lot of convection there. But yeah, if it sort of tries to go lower amplitude closer to the COD (like many of the ensemble suites right now), then it could see that western trough lasting for well over a week. But if guidance is once again underestimating the speed and amplitude of these waves then I’d expect a change as we get closer…guess we’ll find out soon enough. It would prob start showing up in the next 3-5 days on guidance if that’s the case.
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MJO is screaming along way faster than guidance keeps progging. I think it’s going to be hard to lock in a pattern until we get one of those standing waves. Remember when it was stalling it in phase 7 until well after Xmas? Now it’s going to into phase 3 on or just after new years. They are trying to drag it in phase 3 for like 10 days right now but my guess it is does not do that and moves right along. The weird thing is that despite model guidance showing a prolonged phase 3, it’s still trying to dig that trough in the west which is the opposite of phase 3 during January El Niño. Esp for higher amplitude waves…wonder if we’ll see guidance try to correct a bit as we get closer if that wave stays strong like all the previous ones have.
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Might be 37F and mist by tomorrow morning…keep hope alive.
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Jan 58 had a large event on the 7th/8th. Hopefully we get the same this winter during that first 10 days.
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That was a crazy comeback that winter. We just missed out on some additional big snow in ORH late that winter but still managed to pull close to 50” despite having 5” entering 2/1….still the lowest on record at the end of January. It really wasn’t that far off from getting to climo if that April event worked out and we got just a bit less mixing during Vday.
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Scott and I used to preach all the time on how awful the 2m verification was. Also, there’s different flavors of “warm source region”….if it’s warm up there and also warm to our south, we’re usually screwed. But anytime I see like NYC-southward normal to BN then I immediately think “ok that’s not a torchy pattern per say, maybe no arctic cold so we’re not getting 0F nights, but easily should support some snow threats in New England in January.” Like getting stuck in that -5C to -8C band at 850….you’re gonna pop highs into the 30s a lot when it’s not precipitating under that but any storm would typically be snow assuming no cutter track (which that H5 profile doesn’t favor). We have a lot of example of this type of pattern working for us. Patterns like Jan ‘87 come to mind or even Jan 2001 and into early Feb 2001 was another great one…absolutely torched into Canada and a bit AN into New England but not to the south….and we got dumped on during that stretch.
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In the interior up here 2000-01 was one of the best. After the 12/17 cutter, it snowed a few inches on 12/20, then 12/22 and we never saw the ground again until April….funny part was that winter wasn’t super cold. It just lacked any real torching cutters or prolonged warm spells…but I think overall it was like a -1 to -1.5 departure winter. ‘02-03 was pretty solid too…again, eps over interior where they got whacked by 12/25 and 1/3. Snow didn’t go aby where after that until well into March. That winter, unlike 00-01, was very cold. Something like -5ish.
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Retention is huge for sledding and skiing up north. Hopefully we can lay down a few synoptic events at least for NNE over the next 10-12 days and get things restarted. That arctic shot on the euro today would be kind of nice…get those water bars frozen up.
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The 1980s El Niños were a lot more prolific in the interior…I think especially for BOS to NYC. Down in DC area they were pretty solid. But up here you had near normal or slightly subpar in the ‘82-83, ‘86-87, and ‘87-88 Ninos along the coast with much better amounts relative to average in the interior. Exception might be the Cape in ‘86-87. Problem with that decade was there weren’t any super prolific snow winters near the coast and several bottom 10% type winters. The old “not much upside but lots of downside” rule which is going to make for a rough decade.
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I wouldn’t call forecasting a huge snowstorm for the Mid-Atlantic in a potent El Niño sometime in late January or early February complete luck. That is basically their most climatologically favorable window and favorable ENSO state to get one. You’d have to know that type of climo and ENSO background to do it. But overall I agree with the difficulty in pinning down favorable windows. There’s so much chaos that can throw things off that we aren’t able to comprehend.
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The last thing you want models doing is heuristic output. You want them to obey physics as much as possible or their solutions will be even more error-prone. The reason sometimes analog forecasting can outperform a LR model is because of potential model biases in either initial conditions or their inability to weigh certain influences more heavily. For example, I don’t think models are trying to weigh the likelihood of an SSW months in advance like a long range forecaster might….someone like Ray knows that -QBO and El Niño have a much higher chance than climo of producing one. But as model guidance gets closer and can “see” that type of event, then the physics will respond and you’ll see changes. Model guidance used to be so much worse beyond day 6 than they are now. In fact, we hardly looked at any OP solutions beyond day 6 other than just for fun. Even ensembles were so-so. They still have issues but not like 15 years ago.