ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Looks like Ukie is going to be a bit tamer than 00z but that isn’t a shock since 00z was super amped tainting most of SNE.
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Pretty tight cluster on northern edge but none of them get inland. EPS had a couple onshore in CT but most of them stayed S of LI and all of them do on the GEFS save maybe one right near it. There is a northern extent to this because of the trough out west and the confluence up north. Here 12z GEFS.
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La Niña pattern. Looks like 07-08 or 08-09 on some of these progs with that gradient.
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GGEM went way colder and more CAD as well for 1/10. Doesn’t even taint once you get up to dendrite. Maybe a sneaky warm layer for a brief time.
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Coast and SE areas don’t want that low gaining too much latitude before it slides ENE due to onshore flow. Gotta keep it a bit south. That’s actually true for everyone but interior has a lot more wiggle room for how close the sfc low gets.
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GGEM similar tho maybe a little south of GFS. These tracks are very similar to that EPS cluster that were NW of the mean…basically going over ACK.
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I feel mildly optimistic that 1/10 is going to be totally fine for NNE. Might be some ptype mixing but I think there’s going to be a LOT of frozen precip there. Things could change for the worse but there’s been some ensemble support for a colder profile (front end thump to triple point type evolution)…so we’ll see.
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That was just about perfect for maximizing the snow coverage across SNE. Prob some ML goodies getting up to the chickens over to PWM too.
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I actually took the snowblower out of my shed yesterday because I needed to make sure it was working after leaving it in there all of last winter. There was a chipmunk nest in it but thankfully they didn’t chew any wires off so everything seemed to work. Gonna have to rodent-proof it before storing it again. If the storm and subsequent pattern afterward shit the bed, you can all blame it on me.
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The syzygy storm. I think that’s the one where Tip posted he watched the the ridiculous surf and tide on Cape Anne. That was mostly paste near 495 too.
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It was really thick frost here too. Wonder if the excess moisture in the ground helped with that. Almost looked like it snowed a dusting when I went out but it was pure frost. Usually don’t get that on the hill here…we get frost but it’s normally lighter and the heavy frost is reserved for the lower spots down near the bottom. But today it was thick everywhere.
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Lot of snow and cold…no real torches or true cutters (has the 1/10 system as a pretty good front ender with a triple point low limiting the low level warming duration)…plenty of threats into mid-month too. The mid-month pattern is kind of high risk high reward. There’s some western troughing which could risk a cutter but it’s also very active so if we avoid the cutters, prob a good amount of snow can result.
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EPS individual ensemble members still have a large cluster that is a closer track
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Agreed. Those subtle difference is why I’d keep expectations in the moderate range even if we get an ideal track. I do think there will be some double digit totals wherever the CCB meat sets up but as of now, I don’t think those will extend to outside those bands. But we’ll see. Sometimes these southern steamers like to juice up in the final few days.
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What a weenie run on 06z GFS. That’s how to run the upcoming pattern.
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Still a good amount of spread…and still skewed NW
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That first cutter had huge wind with it that was aided by a line of convection. I remember we had a severe tstorm warning for a big chunk of SE MA…I remember it so well because we drove through it on the way to the Cape that Friday.
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Yeah it kind of sucks that the EPS right now is about as good as it gets for most of SNE. The extreme NW edge and far SE areas (moreso them than NW) will quibble but outside of that, it’s a great look. It only sucks because it’s 138-144 hours out. But OTOH, you theoretically want ensemble guidance to look good. That way, even if you don’t jackpot, a little trend north or south and you’re still in the game.
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You got that train of lows from near CHH down to a position a bit W of the BM.
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Prob slight tick SE but same vibe. Still spread to NW
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He said with CAD. That first ‘96 screamer had zero CAD. We were actually quite mild the couple days leading into it. We’ll see on the 1/10 deal, but a lot of guidance shows some CAD even if a couple GFS runs haven’t showed as much.
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Def still a lot of spread NW of the mean
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Yes it was. Good memory on that one.
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Prob a scraper for SNE.
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MLK 2010 was good in ORH (not so much for Tolland…lol)…those pics I posted of 8-10” of paste triggered Kevin into an all time melt.
