ORH_wxman
-
Posts
90,902 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by ORH_wxman
-
Someone could see that if things work perfectly....but i agree I wouldn't forecast anyone to get that amount. But if someone inland gets both good WAA snow and then hammers in the CCB, I'd bet ratios for them could easily pop a few 18-20 burgers.....but again, thats only in an optimal scenario. I think low end warning is the way to hedge right now with maybe some 12-16 lollis.
-
Trailing s/w captures it just in time to give a nice CCB finish.
-
Depends where the snow is coming from and the cross sections....the WAA snow is prob going to be less than 10 to 1 in a lot of places in lower elevations....might be higher in the interior high terrain though. But the CCB snows if they happen will probably be better than 10 to 1 since the column just rapidly cools and temps drop into the 20s.....and as of now, it looks like excellent snow growth in the CCB.....but the question is still where the CCB occurs and how quickly it develops.
-
Ukie on board with the big Sunday finish. It's a little faster though....more like late morning/midday is when eastern areas get croaked instead of deeper into Sunday afternoon like the GFS
-
The block doesn't retrograde into an awesome spot until really post-1/17.....after that, the ensembles were going full 1978 with the arctic look (hopefully that keeps showing up), but it's still kind of precarious prior to that. The fact that the block is in the process of building/retrograding hopefully makes the corrections colder as we get closer, but I could still see a cutter in that 1/14-1/15 threat.
-
Yeah that 1/10-1/17 period is probably going to be key in whether this month ends up as a higher end snow month or not...and perhaps how this winter is remembered. Even if we have a blockbuster February, if we add in extra events with continuous snow cover during that 1/10-1/17 period, then it changes the whole vibe. You could honestly have 2 big warning events in that period or two giant rainy cutters.
-
Yeah it just rips that initial front-running s/w north into Maine with very little resistance....that causes the trailer to close off further north too. Tossed for now, but we keep an eye on that possibility. A much stronger initial s/w would make the WAA thump really good, but it would make the grand finale rtoo far northeast for most of us....mostly a Maine thing.
-
GFS pretty damned cold again for 1/10....GGEM warmed again, though the evolution is kind of weird....nothing like the previous two runs, so not sure what to think. ICON (if we care) cooled from 00z....though 00z was pretty torchy like the Euro.
-
That's like a 12/9/05-lite ending. We're getting 60+ knots inflow at 850 by Sunday PM. That's crazy.....considering it starts as light WAA 12 hours earlier.
-
Just gotta fire up the ARW for those. But a NAM run that gets pingers to Ray is probably due in the next 2-3 cycles.
-
Maybe we can 12/9/05 your area....grab a few inches and 90-100mph winds at the end.
-
Pretty pasty for a chunk of it though so it wouldn't all be 10:1 there....but some of the CCB would prob be better than 10:1 as temps crash and there's excellent snow growth.
-
Yeah though it was a bit more subdued and a tick south of the 06z run which was even more wild. Still a really good solution for a lot of the forum though.
-
Pivotal https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=500hv&rh=2024010412&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
-
RGEM was pretty wild. Just nukes out near ACK.
-
I miss when the SREFS were half-useful for winter event. The old ETA/RSM mixture.
-
Powder blizzard for 3-5 hours to finish?
-
NAM has the explosive ending during Sunday PM.
-
Dude, it's the Henry the VIII song. Or watch the movie "Ghost"
-
Could get nasty sunday PM....a lot of places that were getting paste will freeze pretty quickly as temps crash into the 20s.
-
FWIW, the 06z EPS tracks really close to the 06z OP run....maybe a bit SE of the OP run.
-
06z GFS gone wild. Double digits for most of SNE.
-
Uncle looks to be staying sober this evening. A solid warning event for many but not the higher end type solutions.
-
Much colder GFS run but GGEM went significantly warmer. GEM was so cold at 12z that even the warmer 00z run is still a decent thump (esp over interior)…we’ll see if euro can cool more. It’s been the stubborn one despite cooling some at 12z.
