ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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At least the NAM has a storm at all now. My guess is guidance like the Canadian is too far west and NAM-esque solutions too far east.
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IF we can keep that ridge nice and poleward into the Bering and north of it, then I think we'll continue to have chances even if we have to deal with a cutter mixed in at some point. It will keep loading the source region with arctic air so the airmasses won't become perpetually stale.
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Just mentioned above in my post to Scott that the Euro ensembles have been reducing the SE ridge....but a bit of model battle because the GEFS have it more stout for the beginning of February.
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Looked good for the start of February too. I've noticed on the ensembles too they are beating down the SE ridge. It's still there, but we're north of the gradient, which is what we want to see.
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His climo for the past 3 years is like 4 to 1 transparent slush
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Oh for sure. It's what saved the white Xmas that year (at least where I was) when we had the 12/24 grinch cutter. The snow from 12/13, 12/16, and 12/20 all had a combined 2-3" of QPF in it.
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Yeah and even in colder profiles, I've had 10 to 1 or worse....I think it was the 12/13/07 traffic catastrophe storm where I had 8-9" of pure baking powder at 22-24F and it was prob slightly under 10 to 1...had nearly an inch of QPF. I think even the ORH ASOS only had near 10 to 1 and we know how the ASOS undercatches snowfall QPF a lot.
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Euro doesn't quite amplify Jan 24th enough....but obviously that's still 200 hours out....it does give a hefty snowstorm for 1/29 but that is clown range. There does seem to be some opportunity in that final week-plus of the month though.
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Ukie is not quite as juiced as GFS/GGEM....prob more like high end advisory snows for a lot of SNE.
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Yeah I hope its' that wave that gets us....it's just choked with gulf moisture. Even verbatim, gets SE MA/Cape/RI with an advisory scraper. But back that NW a couple hundred miles and it's a blizzard.
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Canadian and GFS are interested in the Jan 22-25 event....they focus on different shortwaves. Canaidan tries to amplify the first one for Jan 22nd....GFS is trying for Jan 24-25th.
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Even Canadian is close for you....so anything SE of that is good. But it def has the QPF too
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We'll see how Euro looks but that is a large increase in QPF for the event
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GFS is low end warning snowfall for a good chunk of the region.
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Yeah it looks like it's stuck at 60h
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Reminds me a bit of this storm....some might remember it http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1996/us0302.php
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21.2" in 1954-55
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The fact that the two are polar opposites on this storm tells me to ignore the mesos for a bit longer. We'll see what they look like by 00z tonight.
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Kind of weird how the NAM isn't even remotely interested in this event....Still in clown range for that model though. Showed no interest at 06z either.
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RGEM is def more "Huggy" than others, but still prob snow for most of SNE except far SE....this is 925mb at 84h right before it gets in here....you actually still have weak advection from Maine at this point too
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Would need to intensify more rapidly…ala 12/29-30/93. That was like a sharper/more intense version of one of the systems with very strong fronto on the cold side.
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10” of fluff? Don’t think we’re on that train yet.
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Track in GGEM would jackpot west of us. Prob Hudson valley. I want the sharpness of the GGEM except not having the trough that far west.
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Get some meat in the snow before the cold shot. Hopefully we can sharpen up the vort one more tick and make this a low end warning event.
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Definitely very good trends overnight. All major guidance now has solid advisory amounts…just need to hold it now.
