ORH_wxman

We might still get a storm prior to January. There’s some signal on both GFS and Euro suites of something around 12/31. And yes, the pattern looks solid beyond that.

You’d need a huge vortex pushing down from eastern Canada to make it work. Prior to the Christmas 2002 storm we had that. A really deep SW trough into Baja but look at our area…that was setting it up for a Miller B redeveloper instead of a torching cutter.

Funny, it wasn’t a hit at D10…just a close call…so nothing needs to happen for it to miss.

Close call for 12/31 on euro.

Typically I've found on this forum over the past 15-20 years (but especially the last 6-8 years) is that if no snowstorms are imminent on guidance, many will just look for deep blue temperature anomalies over us and if they don't see them, then it means we're not getting snow through the end of that 15 day ensemble period. It's roughly a 5th grade way of looking at the wx pattern, but you can only lead a horse to water.

Still a large difference in some guidance for next week...esp in NNE....Canadian is quite icy for them while GFS is a torch. We'll have to see which way the Euro breaks today. But agreed on longer range GFS....that's a nice looking pattern overall, decent cold around and hopefully one of those many shortwaves can line up correctly for us.

If a bunch of us had 40 and 50 burgers by 1/23, that would be like Jan 2011 stretch.

Yeah I’ve posted various maps that show this…CC doesn’t occur evenly on the spacial/temporal scale. Some areas accelerate and then stall (or even decrease a bit) before resuming warming. Plains are a great example with the rapid warming late 20th century and then a slight negative trend since the late 90s. I’m sure we’ll go through a period of slower or non-existent warming for a time..and it will likely be in conjunction with more warming in places like northern Rockies and western Canada.

Yeah what would have that map looked like if you started in 1985 instead of 2000?…it would be dark blue shades for “top 10% in snow cover increase”….no doubt that long term you’ll see snow cover days decrease with warming temps, but that 22 years doesn’t tell you much anything. You get a few snowy winters like the 2007-2011 period and it changes the math very quickly.

Got colder but not enough for most of us. But it helps them out up there.

Maybe we get screwed again, but it definitely won't be the same style as last year....such a different looking PAC.

It appears BOS stopped reporting snow depth after the 2003-2004 winter. So I have no idea what station they are using to determine anything past December 2003 for snow depth and white Xmas. We obviously know 2009 had snow there but in more marginal years, I'm not sure what they are using. I don't even think 2010 was that marginal either.

FWIW, the Hingham coop had a white christmas that year....still not sure what they are using to say BOS didn't have one because Logan airport didn't report snow depth in 2010.

Where are they getting the snow depth numbers from anyway? BOS stopped reporting snow depth well before 2010.

Just checked the NOHRSC maps and they seem to agree

I think 2010 was mostly Logan-specific. I was in Boston on Xmas eve and the common was covered with about 2-3" of snow and there was about 2" OTG the entire way back to ORH.

For ORH, general climo is the snowiest 1 month period is January 28th to February 28th. For CON, it looks like it's pretty similar, maybe January 30th to March 2nd.

I should be there pretty early around 430 im guessing. Won;t be able to stay too late though.

He's going pretty heavy on the snow for Jan/Feb....esp Feb which makes sense in an El Nino.

Tip is absolutely correct that if the posters who always post about warmth and no snow started their own thread, it would get almost no engagement. That’s how we know it’s trolling in here even if they claim otherwise. There’s a definite purpose to it to get responses from easily-baited snow lovers. Its a very easily tested theory…one of them should start a parallel thread for it. As for the LR, I don’t feel any differently than I did the last few days other than the longshot on 12/28 looks like an even longer shot today. But who knows, maybe it trends colder again tomorrow…either way, it doesn’t change the way it looks beyond that. Better pattern by month-end even if it’s not brutally cold. We probably get a bit more cold into our region in the first half of January as the ridge pops more poleward.

That’s actually pretty impressive verification from 300+ hours. Nailed the N PAC decently and the western ridge. Missed on the Atlantic side though.

Yeah but to be fair, when we were tracking it on the weeklies, it was mostly near or after Xmas…and it actually seems like that is going to verify now since we’re already seeing the seeds of the pattern creeping inside D10. There were a few brief times where it looked like we could get a big -NAO to offset some of the bad PAC but it was mostly transient…we did sneak in a semi-favorable look in the first week of December but wave-spacing hurt us in SNE and only the south shore of MA got that 1-3” event.

Yeah I think there’s a chance for that one but not a great one. But it’s been trending better the last couple of cycles so if that keeps up then maybe we have something to track for real by this weekend. Ensembles have been sharpening the ridge near Hudson Bay.

I wouldn't be all that critical of those who used that type of defensible reasoning....but most of the posts aren't of that substance. In fact, most of the posts don't have much substance at all other than it's not going to snow...sometimes with reference to "we heard this last December", as if that is really a logical scientific argument. QGomega (who can make a decent post when he wants to) did mention the MJO the other day claiming we would stall in phase 7, but that argument isn't really going to be all that viable now since we clearly didn't stall there and we're actually already exiting out of phase 7.

The sustained winds were more impressive than the gusts here.....we had some good gusts, but it was the constant 30-40mph sustained bursts that would last a long time.