ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Starting to look a lot like Jan '87 over North America....
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@Typhoon Tip 12/29/76 was an absolute whopper for the 128 belt down into N RI. It wasn't a super phased monster blizzard, but it produced a lot of 12-20" amounts in that corridor. That is the storm Ray loves because ORH was too far west and only got 4".
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Euro still showing that weak signal around 12/23 too....verbatim it runs into a block and gets shoved SW....it's not a big system, but could be the last chance to whiten the ground before Xmas. 26 years ago was a pretty weak-ass looking system too.....lol.
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Yeah that was a fun look. Big slow mover too. But I think we’ll start getting some good chances late month and esp into January.
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12/22-23 was a big rainer for all of New England.
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I wouldn’t totally sleep on 12/23-25 yet if Canada wants to get blocky. Those can go either way…you can end up under a ridge and be 50F and partly cloudy, or you could end up with snow and 27 if there’s a block over Hudson Bay and shortwaves are diving under you. It’s not something I’d bank on, but it’s plausible.
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I’d take the Euro and run. That would prob be a few inches anyway.
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Ukie is interesting too but it has the ULL a little bit west of optimal so the snow is mostly in far western SNE into SE NY. But at this range, we’re mostly just interested in the trend of a trailing ULL being strong enough to spark cyclogensis to our south…we’ve seen it on the GEM and Ukie….GFS is not biting but I have a feeling the Euro might considering the EPS look at 06z.
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GEM looks interesting. Like some of the EPS members on the trailing ULL. GFS is ridiculous in that it does that retrograde job and produces a bunch of snow/sleet/ice over the region in a long duration event next weekend. Selling that clown look.
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No that was the 12/29/76 storm....the 1981 storm was decent in ORH...I think they had close to a foot. But it was definitely better in the 128 belt where some 18+ amounts happened.
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Yeah we’ll have to watch the ULL…nothing last night was great verbatim but it was very close on a few different solutions. Might be able to sneak a few inches if it broke right…low probability but plausible.
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Yes the bulk of the 1981 storm was Saturday 12/5 to Sunday 12/6. Good memory.
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Almost looks like the 12/5-6/81 storm that backed it from the east.
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I think the 12/19 storm is likely warm. The week after that looks more interesting though than it did.
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‘94-95 prob would’ve been much better if it weren’t for a bad polar domain.
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I wish we could trust the weeklies more…they look amazing for January. But really the confidence drops so much after D10-12 even on the regular ensembles…nevermind weeklies. If there’s one takeaway from the last couple of runs starting last night, it’s that even if the central Canada blocky pattern doesn’t produce, it’s a good omen for the polar domain later on…we should avoid a ‘94-95 evolution even if we temporarily look like 1994 for a week in December.
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They are pretty horrible after week 2 which is how far out the ensembles go anyway. They really don’t provide a ton of value.
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Ensemble member 6 was run out of Ray’s basement. Gets warning snows on the backside of next week and then another system hits just before Xmas for the double whammy.
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EPS cooled quite a bit in the 11-15....that ridging over central Canada is looking more blocky which is helping us get some better airmasses riding down the eastern side of that....it's not Siberian express cold, but it would be enough for some wintry threat if we can get some shortwaves underneath.
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Most other guidance is pretty warm still for 12/18-19 but the period after that is starting to look more interesting even if that one doesn’t produce anything. Might have an opportunity in the 12/21-12/26 range.
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I don’t think it’s likely by any means, but if we keep seeing that high to the NW build in, then you could get a sneaky icing event…but right now guidance is all over the place on that look.
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Yeah if you can get blocky in central Canada then that is one way to get some threats to work out..interior favored though given the airmass but you can often see some sneaky highs pike down with like -8C type 850 temps and that is more than enough in many cases. I agree with Scott that as we get closer to New Years and into early January, it becomes easier because you’re continuing to slowly cool the seasonal baseline state…home brew cold if you will prior to the cross polar flow returning.
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06z GFS actually funnels down a lot of cold at the sfc early next week and creates an icing problem even though it’s torched aloft.
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It’s the progged pattern. Early December was definitely different than ‘94.
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What? There’s been no preference on the MJO this cold season
