ORH_wxman

GEM looks interesting. Like some of the EPS members on the trailing ULL. GFS is ridiculous in that it does that retrograde job and produces a bunch of snow/sleet/ice over the region in a long duration event next weekend. Selling that clown look.

No that was the 12/29/76 storm....the 1981 storm was decent in ORH...I think they had close to a foot. But it was definitely better in the 128 belt where some 18+ amounts happened.

Yeah we’ll have to watch the ULL…nothing last night was great verbatim but it was very close on a few different solutions. Might be able to sneak a few inches if it broke right…low probability but plausible.

Yes the bulk of the 1981 storm was Saturday 12/5 to Sunday 12/6. Good memory.

Almost looks like the 12/5-6/81 storm that backed it from the east.

I think the 12/19 storm is likely warm. The week after that looks more interesting though than it did.

‘94-95 prob would’ve been much better if it weren’t for a bad polar domain.

I wish we could trust the weeklies more…they look amazing for January. But really the confidence drops so much after D10-12 even on the regular ensembles…nevermind weeklies. If there’s one takeaway from the last couple of runs starting last night, it’s that even if the central Canada blocky pattern doesn’t produce, it’s a good omen for the polar domain later on…we should avoid a ‘94-95 evolution even if we temporarily look like 1994 for a week in December.

They are pretty horrible after week 2 which is how far out the ensembles go anyway. They really don’t provide a ton of value.

Ensemble member 6 was run out of Ray’s basement. Gets warning snows on the backside of next week and then another system hits just before Xmas for the double whammy.

EPS cooled quite a bit in the 11-15....that ridging over central Canada is looking more blocky which is helping us get some better airmasses riding down the eastern side of that....it's not Siberian express cold, but it would be enough for some wintry threat if we can get some shortwaves underneath.

Most other guidance is pretty warm still for 12/18-19 but the period after that is starting to look more interesting even if that one doesn’t produce anything. Might have an opportunity in the 12/21-12/26 range.

I don’t think it’s likely by any means, but if we keep seeing that high to the NW build in, then you could get a sneaky icing event…but right now guidance is all over the place on that look.

Yeah if you can get blocky in central Canada then that is one way to get some threats to work out..interior favored though given the airmass but you can often see some sneaky highs pike down with like -8C type 850 temps and that is more than enough in many cases. I agree with Scott that as we get closer to New Years and into early January, it becomes easier because you’re continuing to slowly cool the seasonal baseline state…home brew cold if you will prior to the cross polar flow returning.

06z GFS actually funnels down a lot of cold at the sfc early next week and creates an icing problem even though it’s torched aloft.

It’s the progged pattern. Early December was definitely different than ‘94.

What? There’s been no preference on the MJO this cold season

Yeah, we cooled down late that month and into early January but then we had a monster MJO wave right back into phases 4/5/6 in Jan 1995 which reignited the torch until February that season. I do think the prospects of a much better arctic region are there for this winter versus that one. So hopefully we can start cashing in on some chances pretty quickly once we go into MJO 8.

The pattern right now is almost a carbon copy of Dec 1994 on the longwave look....I don't think we get out of it until late month.

Didn't melt until the 12/27 cutter....

I dunno, we've had some paste bombs recently inland....Mar 2023 (though I know your area mostly missed that...it was more ORH county)....Mar 7-8, 2018 was one. 12/5/20 was a 10" paste bomb in ORH....I think you mixed a lot but still had 6 or 7". Those are all in the last 5-6 years. Feb 1, 2021 was pretty pasty for the second half of the storm....coast got skunked pretty bad. But if you're looking for 20-30" of paste inland, you aren't going to find it very often....Dec '92 is the top example. Be glad you lived to see it.

Huh? Dec '92 was a generational storm...they aren't supposed to be common.

I think that report was Ipswich, MA....I always discounted it because it was such an outlier. I also feel like their map was light over interior N Middlesex county where most places had around 18-20"

They don;t have the lag we do out there in most spots.

That's my favorite storm of all time. Witnessed the entire thing unfold in it's unpredictable glory. One of the worst snowfall busts too. They were predicting 2-4/3-6" of snow the day before the storm in central MA.