ORH_wxman

So the problem is snowfall is not a normal distribution. It has a high tail because of the fact we can’t have negative numbers on snowfall. So the easiest way to exclude outliers equally in a fast/crude manner is to put your entire array of values in a column on excel (you prob already did this)….now go to “formulas” tab on the top of the spreadsheet and go to the drop-down menu that says “more functions” and then go to “statistical” and then scroll all the way down to “Percentile.exc”. Once you do that it’s going to ask you select the array of values, so click on the first value of your snowfall total, hold shift, and then select the last value so that it includes all of them in the array. Now, below the array line there is a “K” value. For your 10th percentile value, type in “0.1” and you should see a low-ish snowfall value appear below the K line on the right. That is your 10th percentile snowfall value…write it down or type it someonewhere . Now do the same thing for 90th by inputing “0.9” for the K value. Once you have have your 10th and 90th percentile values, you can toss all values above the 90th and below the 10th if you want to exclude outliers in an even manner. This gets rid of the problem of trying to use methods you’d normally use for a normal distribution. Now you could do this for any percentile value you wanted. If you wanted the 50th percentile, you type in 0.5 into the K line…for 25th you input 0.25….you get the idea.

Now we know the weeklies are actually going to be correct and we’re gonna rip snow bombs into the equinox like its 1958.

I’m surprised there were no -10 inch snowfall seasons.

Yeah if we can set up a true blocking episode…it will help prolong the favorable look so that maybe we have longer than just a 7-10 day window. I’m skeptical until it’s right in front of us. Weeklies do try and run with that blocking and take us well into mid-March at the end of their run still with a favorable look. Not that any of us should trust the weeklies.

Pattern mid-month still looks excellent. But it’s pretty much snoozefest for 10 days before that…only question is whether we can sneak a 60F nape tanner or two in there at the end of next week/weekend. But the pattern beyond that is still about as good as you could draw it up.

Yeah there were three of them that always teamed up and reported totals within an inch or two of eachother in those bigger storms. And they were always higher than everyone else in that area.

Positive bust too. Was supposed to be like 8-12” and a slot but at the last second the rgem scored the coup on secondary development which prolonged the snow into afternoon and early evening.

4th biggie kind of missed you too on 2/15

Yeah the amplitude on these runs is pretty extreme for a D12-15 ensemble prog and it’s across all guidance too…not just one set of ensembles. I think the pattern shift is basically inevitable at this point but the bigger question is how long it lasts and if it trends more amplified or less. If you only get a 7-10 day period of favorability, then you can more easily whiff on storm chances versus if you get 3-4 weeks…just obvious probability/statistics.

There is no doubt there is a very strong consensus for a more favorable pattern by mid-February. Details TBD and of course nobody in here cares unless it produces a deformation band over their noggin….but the current evidence is that the pattern will become quite favorable for colder/stormy….it could deteriorate as we get closer but there’s nothing yet that would make me actually predict that outside of “vibes”.

There’s def a big difference over just 100-200 feet of elevation. The lowest parts of town have less than half of what we have here.

Not as much as N ORH county and monadnocks but quite wintry here today still as well.

Scooter is full throttle back to shore to set the market with 60,000 pounds of swordfish on board….he doesn’t care if the Perfect Storm is in his tracks. He’s gotten his second wind with the Hail Mary coastal storm on the GFS next week and then the ensemble going full weenie pattern by mid-month….he’s gonna fight and not lay down in the woodshed.

Yeah this is a weird temp pattern for a strong Nino January

Yep. But if the first 10-12 days of the month is bone dry, that wouldn’t be too bad for the second half of the month. If we finished the month an inch below normal on QPF but almost all of the precip falls after the 12th, we’d take that in a heartbeat.

Seems like next weekend (about 9-11 days out) is the period to watch if we’re gonna sneak in some true torch days in the 50s or higher. At the moment, most guidance seems more muted but could change as we get closer. If that pattern beyond that keeps showing up without degrading, then I’ll become more enthusiastic for a potential larger snow threat. Pretty crazy ridge showing up out west.

Scooter getting sucked back in. Might be some south shore goodies with that colder airmass and onshore flow next week and then after that the ensembles showing a loaded pattern by mid-month.

Yeah Edgemere area is right on the Shrewsbury/ORH line on rt 20 on the southern tip of Lake Quinsigamond. It’s basically the lowest point in Worcester proper.

Oh that was the big fluffer bust. Like Walpole to Taunton had 8”+ when the forecast was like 2-4”. A thin band late that evening started from me to Ginxy and nobody else was snowing. Then things finally expanded overnight and it went to town over SE areas with pristine snow growth and it ended maybe middle of next morning. Almost a mini 2/7/03.

Holden is a great spot. Retention there is night and day compared to even lower areas of Worcester. It’s why I often say ORH can be sliced in half in the city. The NW side from Indian Hill to Winter Hill on the Holden line over to Salisbury area over to Tatnuck square and ORH airport are way different than downtown to Webster square. You can go even weeks at times where there will be deep pack in that area while Webster square has patches of bare ground.

Crunchy under foot on the deck tonight grilling. Winter feel. Trees still have some snow on them while down at bottom of hill it’s all off the trees.

Yeah there’s def gonna be some model fantasies out of that pattern shown. Might be several. A few whiffs in a powderkeg setup near the end of the season should do well on here.

One final shot I think we’ll have to get a big dog…and I think Ray’s window makes sense when you look at the MJO progression and general seasonality of ENSO. Hopefully we can get one. Maybe we will repeat the 1957-58 timing again like we did in January. (For refresher, in 1957-58, the first big snow of the season here was 1/7….then there were additional smaller events but also a huge rainstorm with a bit of interior wet snow on a benchmark track around 1/23-1/25….sound familiar yet?) The pattern turned significantly colder during the 2nd week of February in 1958 and then we got the first big dog on 2/16/58. There was a reload during the 2nd week of March and we got the monster storm around the equinox too. This year is obviously not going to run as cold as Feb ‘58 since that was an exceptional arctic outbreak, but I could see some good storm chances.

Yeah I remember. Once the CCB got cranking, a lot of guidance had this airmass get entrained and we saw output dropping it into the 20s on the coast and even some upper teens inland. But that high trended north and arrived later as we got closer.