ORH_wxman

Looks even more like S Canada run. Ottawa to Massena. Even in mid-winter the appetite would be fairly small but in early April after a terrible winter, nobody will stay and track a storm that doesn’t give good snow within 50-75 miles. We are basically one more 00z run bump north from 80-90% of the forum checking out…myself included.

I’d hold off up there. Latitude will matter. But yeah, you want a tick south. N of pike crowd between pike and ASH/MHT can still get a big system if this nudges south a little but the trends haven’t been favorable the last 24 hours.

It actually trended so far south it looked like all of us were gonna get skunked and then at the last second it bumped back enough to crush CT. We still got screwed up here. We got maybe 4”.

Yes. The northward push of the primary is where the issues occur. A system sliding due east from Chicago to Cleveland and redeveloping E of ACY is totally fine. But when the primary rips up into Lake Huron, it’s hard to hold the midlevel structure of the storm in a manner that produces huge snows for SNE.

Euro looks a bit warmer and north again. Almost game over for SNE but it does still hit ORH county to Berkshires decent.

Yep. Prob gonna check out on this one soon. I’ll give it another couple cycles though since there is still some spread south/colder. But this is starting to get the feeling of an NNE elevation storm and not the more cleanly phased tempest over the benchmark up to ACK. Gonna need a shift south on subsequent cycles.

NAM is actually sub-freezing over high terrain of SNE and 925s are between -3 and -4 so you’d get good accumulations that way. But you want to see more global models trend that cold before you consider it realistically.

CCB prob wouldn’t get cranking for another few frames as the ULL is still back west. It’s quite cold though so NAM would prob work in a lot of spots even if 10 to 1 is overdone.

I think ideally for non-ORH hills/Berks interior SNE (and I’ll loosely define this as 495 belt from Ray right down to near Kevin on 84 NE of HFD) we want to see that primary die a little quicker instead of getting wrapped up into the thumb of Michigan. If you can can keep it more toward CLE instead then it’s balls to wall.

Yeah there will be a lot of white rain lingering as the ULL takes its time to move out but I don’t expect much of that stuff to stick. Maybe briefly in heavier snow showers. The key for siggy accums is getting into the meat of the CCB on the coastal.

You’re still in a good spot. Maybe even down to ORH but it would feel A little better even in that area to see things tick a little south.

It was fun for a couple days. But we’re prob cooked unless we sink this back south 50-100mi

Yeah it’s not surprising that is also where some laughable storm totals have occurred when the stars line up. Like 60”+ type totals every once in a while in that high terrain east side near Pinkham Notch.

Phineas could get a 30 burger in this setup.

The more consolidated solutions have incredible dynamics. But something like the GFS is less intriguing until you are into high terrain of NNE. You have the low trying to escape northeast too quickly early before it finally gets tugged back.

Disjointed crap still on 18z GFS until it gets W Maine/White mountains. Not consolidated like some other guidance.

Go back to the pre-clown map era when you have marginal temp profile….esp under 800-1000 feet 1. Look for 6 hourly QPF greater than 0.50”…preferably 0.75”+. The heavier the better, but 0.25 or 0.37 over 6 hours isn’t gonna cut it. That’s mostly white rain. 2. Look at 925 temps. Typically want -2ish or colder to avoid total slop though -1 will work if youre pounding with good snow growth aloft. If you aren’t satisfying both of those criteria, then you’re looking at something significantly under 10:1 ratios. Nocturnal timing for max precip can help a bit too, but it’s less significant than the two factors above.

This is why consolidation matters. Keeping the system disjointed is going to make sure there’s a much stronger elevation gradient and also just lower rates in general. Even OP Euro wasn’t quite there despite the decent CCB late in the game but the EPS was better.

Always a fear this winter. At least there’s pretty good agreement right now compared to other guidance plus that’s a pig NAO block that develops which should help hold the goalposts a little firmer. The GFS suite is kind of the outlier right now being more disjointed (though some of the GEFS did look like the foreign models, just not as many of them). If this was 3 weeks earlier, we’d have enough wiggle room that you can probably honk away right now. But this is gonna need to get closer before having any confidence.

Individual EPS. You can see how slow-moving it is. There’s also still some spread with some members trying to escape the low to the northeast before it gets captured.

EPS def trended better from 00z and 06z for SNE. More consolidation. I’d say that’s better for CNE too for sure. You want to avoid a disjointed system to maximize amounts.

I’d like it another smidge south so that it stays more consolidated, but verbatim that would be poundtown for at least 6-8 hours I think right into eastern areas.

That’s a hell of a CCB for eastern New England for a time.

Latitude is going to help Ray. This isn’t an isothermal airmass. It’s fairly chilly aloft…esp further north. If we get a GFS solution then it’s a moot point but something a little more organized then it matters.