ORH_wxman

Airmass on Saturday night/Sunday is good delivery for us. Montreal express vector. If we can grab some snow cover, it’s a taking-the-under type of forecast…rarity the last few winters.

Yeah at least it gets nice and cold behind the storm. Airmass of yore. Hopefully this isn’t another fake trend and everyone can pick up at least enough to cover the grass.

That’s a pretty solid CF. Like upper 20s to mid 30s over 10-15 miles on the high res stuff.

00z RAP went west again. That would be very interesting for SE MA and the Cape if we could see another few frames

Story of this system. If we were getting these trends on top of the 00z runs last night, then we’d be in business. But we always sneak in a regression just in time to screw it up like at 12z today. The 12z runs were def the most frustrating because the trend last night is something you think might stick given that we were getting into that 48h range. Usually those are real.

Precip field is def pretty far west compared to 18z. He might have been talking about vs 23z which wasn’t much of a change.

@OceanStWx talks about that game since he went to it. It was so cold the beers were freezing in the stands if you didn’t keep drinking them.

Still not enough. Been the theme of this event. Outside of a few NAM runs and maybe another rogue model, the left goalpost has generally been not far enough for a big hit. It admittedly wouldn’t take much to get a decent hit into SE MA but this system just doesn’t want to go that final 40-50 miles NW.

Then in the playoffs there was the AFC Championship snow game vs the Colts in Jan ‘04 a month later. Then the very next year was the Jan 2005 snow game against the colts again, but in the divisional round playoffs. So many snow games over a 2 season period.

Yeah it’s way amped versus earlier runs (comparing it to 18z is easier since the 18z run went out past 18 hours.)

@CoastalWx you’re right about Miami. There was also a snow game the following week but it was against Jacksonville. Snowed pretty good in the second half of that game.

21z trend is hot right now. RAP and SREFS coming NW…who needs the Euro and GFS?

12/14/03 was a big front ender changing to sleet and eventually rain on coast (good amount of icing in ORH in that) and it was on a Sunday.

December 14, 2003 I think was a snow game Vs Miami.

The rap has been hideous most of today but the 21z run decided to bump well NW. We’ll see if the 00z runs make any attempt to follow suit. Even 25-30 miles could make a decent difference. I don’t think those crazy double digit totals are going to come back but if you move the forcing NW a tick then there could be more low end advisory amounts.

Then fast-forward 8 months the same year…unreal positive bust over interior for 12/23/97

Feb 24-25, 1989 was the first massive bust I remember and you could see it coming in real time even as a young elementary school weenie. The snow was originally supposed to start that Friday night or predawn Saturday morning. I was watching the evening news and they said it was only snowing on parts of LI and the immediate NJ shore but that we should eventually get into the heavy snow during the day on Saturday. That was the first “hint” that things weren’t exactly going as originally planned. Then I wake up Saturday morning to overcast but it was kind of thin. You could see the disc of the sun at times. The local noontime broadcast showed snow on the Cape. It was snowing lightly with a few inches there but we have bare ground still. Then Barry Burbank comes on at noontime weather segment and says the snow might not start until late afternoon. This is when I started getting that pit in my stomach. I think I stared at the spotlight out back for almost two hours straight between 6-8pm without seeing a flake in the beam of light. Then I finally saw a few weenie flakes before bed around 830-9pm. It snowed all night and finally stopped about mid morning. The storm still ended up a bust but at least we didn’t get shutout like many others I would learn only years later. We finished with about 4” of arctic sand after the original forecast on Friday had been 1-2 feet. Parts of the cape verified with double digits.

Yeah the euro has been more consistent with light snows. I think it maybe had advisory snows for a run but it’s been mostly in that 1-3” range except last night when it went with flurries. GFS has been all over the map from warning snows to nothing.

Lol I wouldn’t get too excited but it’s a band of 1-2”….it would at least give a good chunk of the area a White Xmas

Euro likes Xmas Eve over SNE. Looks better than last nights run.

Yes....1/4/18

RGEM moving east too...12z suite definitely saw something that is causing the eastward bump.

The 06z Euro is more impressive than the NAM now

Yep, back SE