ORH_wxman

I looped the EPS individual storm tracks from 06z on the 6th onwards until the 10th and you can def see how the chances look to become more numerous as time goes on that pattern…it’s obviously a bit buckshot and diffuse being so far out but there’s definitely a pattern of more chances deeper into the run

That’s a decent way to look at it. When the pattern is not favorable, then we have to thread the needle to get a system. A good pattern gives us wiggle room on the track of a shortwave and as a cherry on top, favorable patterns are often stormier too, so in addition to not needing a perfect track, you also have more chances in general. (This isn’t the case every time. Sometimes we get too dry and suppressed)

Nobody likes waiting…esp when we haven’t had a major (double digits) event yet this year and some peeps here haven’t had one since 2022. So I can understand the impatience. But in this case, I don’t feel anything has been can-kicked. It’s always been the first week of January for a while. Originally weeks ago we were hoping for late December after Xmas looked like shit but then our cold period got extended into Xmas and the shit period decided to happen the week after Xmas before the big reload. But for at least the past week or so, it’s looked like first week of January to flip.

Yeah first legit shot for SNE is prob after 1/3-ish. Timeline has been pretty similar for almost a week now: 1. Pure crap for everyone until New Years 2. NNE might sneak something from Jan 1-2, but iffy even for them. 3. Maybe something smaller in Jan 3-4 time range (scraper or clipper) 4. Larger potential beyond Jan 5th

Pattern does get a lot more active after the 3rd/4th it seems. I think most people have a hard time conceptually understanding good pattern/bad pattern discourse from a probabilistic standpoint. A good pattern doesn’t guarantee anything but it loads the dice in our favor. A bad pattern doesn’t exclude snowfall either but it loads the dice against us. But I’d say about 75% of the forum posters don’t care for probabilistic discourse. They want guarantees. If the storms aren’t showing up in the short/medium term guidance inside of 5-6 days, then its going to be negative talk from them regardless of what the longer range shows…if the LR looks excellent, they will roll their eyes and say wake me up when it’s closer. If it looks like crap, they will assume it’s correct and bitch about that…I always found that part funny.

EPS:

I’d say the two dates to watch in the next couple weeks for snow potential are 1/3 and 1/8. The earlier system around new years looks too warm…maybe NNE can grab something from that. 1/3 isn’t supported by euro suite but GFS has been trying to amplify a wave behind the NY system. 1/8 is a more supported longwave look. But obviously too far out to really have a strong signal yet but there’s been a weak one for a couple days.

Be sure to tell RIC weenies that they can lock in their entire seasonal snowfall climo in one storm these next couple weeks.

Think we had about 15-17” or so in 1995 in ORH. But we had some extra snow OTG from 12/9 which made it a glacier base whereas closer to the coast didn’t do as well in that one.

The “falling on Christmas” was always made up at least as far back from when I was a kid. All the Mets used to say a white Xmas meant 1” or more OTG at 12z Xmas morning. Maybe there was some other definition back during the days of snow up to thy knickers. Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukkuh weenies.

It helps that they have like 20+ hours of darkness though.

The threat on Jan 1-2 has subtly cooled today on guidance. I am skeptical for SNE on a lot of wintry precip for that one. But it could trend enough for CNE and NNE. But yeah, the time range still makes something more interesting down here at least plausible. I really like the look after that system but it would be a great bonus to score anything from Jan 1-2.

A little bit grinchy on the Cape with temps near 40F. They did already have several inches OTG though. Might get some OES later tomorrow too.

Prob not gonna get more than a half inch but it’s nice to refresh the snow from the other day after my boys trampled all over it

Snowing good now in this second band. Baking powder borderline moderate. Everything covered ina fresh coating

He’s not gonna answer until he wakes up and shakes off the hangover at noontime. He does this every 1-2 weeks during winter when the libations are flowing generously.

First band disintegrated as it got here. Not really surprising. Steady light snow but prob like 1-2 mile vis. We’ll se if band #2 does better

Hoping this band holds together

The sound of crappy snow growth. I feel like every storm in ‘07-08 during those SWFEs sounded like that. Like 9 to 1 baking powder falling from the sky. It’s great for building pack though since it’s kind of dense even though it’s dry/powdery.

Yeah I think some people got sucked into the idea of a marginal threat prior to 1/3 or so….that’s prob where some of the whining is coming from. The ensembles look gangbusters still beyond that so don’t see anything that screams red flags for January.

Def fighting dry air in SNE but some decent bands N of pike at the moment

Woodstove has eaten a lot of wood over the past couple days. When it’s colder out, you really gotta keep that internal stove temp up and when it’s that hot inside the stove, the wood almost vaporizes as you put it in, lol.

2nd week of January is quite the cold signal on the weeklies today…keep in mind this is a 5-day mean

Could be a random storm signal, agreed. But it’s strange how different it is. Pretty good agreement on MJO going into phase 8 after new years so I think you would no longer have destructive interference so the pattern reverting back to something favorable would make sense.

GEFS vs EPS for January 3rd