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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    Western trough has been underestimated many times in the last few years. So far this year though it’s been fairly tame so we’ll see. 12z OP Euro still not buying it. Has a huge ridge out there in early January. We’ll see what ensembles say.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Almost a 2F step change in July after what looks like a very slow drift down before that (which may or may not just be an artifact of local mesonets coming online…but usually a prolonged drift is not from new mesonets.)
  3. ORH_wxman
    There’s a bit of a model battle. GEFS have diverged decently for the first week of January (really the first 4-5 days) It’s hitting the deeper troughing out west which will keep us much milder and prob at least one cutter. Maybe a couple. EPS not buying that idea. Keeps the warmer look to mostly pre-New Years.
  4. ORH_wxman
    How long has it been that bad? Even the very very lenient “within 2F” margin they use on calibration would fail miserably. Cant imagine why it hasn’t been axed and replaced yet.
  5. ORH_wxman
    That was a good storm with a solid 6-10” front ender…really nasty cold tuck with ice all the way into BOS and SE MA the next morning. Eventually we all warm sectored though in SNE except maybe the deep valleys near Hippy/Your old neck of the woods and N ORH county.
  6. ORH_wxman
    Sunset looked nice tonight behind the ridge line with the snow and lights. Grabbed this pic around 4:30.
  7. ORH_wxman
    Yeah it’s been kicked down into South America. That period between Jan 3-6 looks really ripe at least.
  8. ORH_wxman
    Very little cold air for that new years threat so it will be marginal and likely favor NNE and/or interior.
  9. ORH_wxman
    EPS 11-15 day composite. That’s pretty classic…even with a little STJ involvement for once as others have pointed out. Potential and verification are two different things though. Hopefully it produces.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Was in Boston last night and even though I already knew they did well in the storm, it still surprised me somewhat to see how much snow they had. I guess 2-3 years of them getting skunked has started to numb me…I always expect the snow to disappear once inside 128 but it got meatier and meatier. Looked and felt like deep winter there. Great to see during the lead up to Xmas.
  11. ORH_wxman
    I guess maybe. I don’t really make a distinction between a coating and an inch at 20 or 25 to 1 ratios…other than statistics on the seasonal snow totals. It could easily just dry out and be a couple hundredths. If we were getting widespread 0.1-0.2” QPF it would be more interesting.
  12. ORH_wxman
    Looks paltry for SNE. It has a little more QPF than other guidance but we’re still talking under a tenth.
  13. ORH_wxman
    Only 13 days to go! The longwave look is quite nice though for that period in the Jan 3-5 range. So we could def cook something up there.
  14. ORH_wxman
    Not bad. That might be the high today…maybe another degree but hard to get more diurnal warming after 1pm near the solstice. BOS will miss their record low max by only a degree or two today. More snow OTG than in 1989 though…
  15. ORH_wxman
    Nice band over mid cape
  16. ORH_wxman
    I could see N ORH county doing better than most in SNE but for the majority it’s a few flakes to maybe a coating.
  17. ORH_wxman
    Might get some brief LL convergence too overnight near the canal. If that happens, could be a brief time of enhancement. Pretty cool that a good chunk of the Cape is gonna get their second white Xmas in 3 years. Many on the cape (including my aunt and mom’s place in Yarmouth) had OES on SW flow overnight into Xmas morning in 2022.
  18. ORH_wxman
    Next one will go south like Jan 2004 and nail NYC while we get an inch of arctic sand.
  19. ORH_wxman
    8F this morning with squeaky snow under foot as I took out trash. December of yore feel.
  20. ORH_wxman
    With that high nosing down, you’re not gonna be able to mix to 50-55 at the sfc very well…so you could get days that are like 38/28 despite 850 temps near 0C or even a bit higher. So it will be above normal but not your typical 50s unless the wholesale pattern changes and we see more westerly or southwesterly flow.
  21. ORH_wxman
    Danger is sublimation, not melting. It’s a dry arctic airmass so you can sublimate an inch of snow in the sunny spots over a few days. It might help if the inch is pasty…more water content will make it take longer.
  22. ORH_wxman
    You’ll be interested in the GEFS too. Mostly because of the subtropics…when was the last time it looked like that?
  23. ORH_wxman
    Hopefully RGEM is right. Gets 1-2” down into pike region and maybe as far south as Kevin. I’m skeptical though. Prob mostly a NNE deal.
  24. ORH_wxman
    Yes reggie is like one of those hitters who goes on a tear and hits bombs and liners every at bat…like Giancarlo in the playoffs. But otherwise he just whiffs 90% of the time, lol. Hopefully it stays on a heater.
  25. ORH_wxman
    Looks worse than it did. Prob just flurries but maybe enough to do a fresh coating. There’s a little vort up in Canada that phases in with the lakes vort and causes all the best forcing to be up north so we’re left with almost nothing. Hope for Reggie to be correct again. That model still has 1-2”. Esp from your area northward.
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