ORH_wxman

Not biting yet despite the large move on 18z euro. Need to see a definitive move on 00z from most guidance. If we see that, then it gets interesting…esp south of pike.

We do get scraped by a 959mb low on 1/15. These runs aren’t afraid to put out absolute bombs. Just need to phase one properly for us.

ORH is still running too high anyways. Been that way since 2020. Crazy that it’s almost 5 years worth of data now. I meant to put together a spreadsheet but haven’t done it yet…but now that we have all the months through the end of 2024, I may line up all the monthly anomalies for first order SNE sites and then graph them. That would be the ultimate tell.

Yeah the 1/10 look has subtly improved today despite not getting an OP run tempest. Still could easily miss of course. Ensembles showed a bit more separation of the main shortwave and ambient lower heights near us and to our northeast. So hopefully we’re able to space something.

When the PV gets trapped in your back yard, EPO becomes less of a worry. Honestly looked like the ridge was rebuilding in the Bering near end of EPS anyway.

Yes but you have been ultra negative on many threats that crushed you in the past. That’s how someone becomes not credible. Saying the same thing regardless of outcome.

Only way for SNE to see decent snow from the 1/6-7 threat is for a partial phase with TPV. If we can phase one of the spokes of energy then maybe it had a shot but we haven’t really seen those solutions…a couple runs have come close but nothing that leaves you waiting on the edge of your seat for next model run.

Yeah credibility matters when you are talking about public discourse.

No reason to look at guidance for a day 10 threat at 7am.

How fast did Cleveland superbomb in 1978 deepen? I know it got down to about 955mb in Ohio

It’s an empirical fact we’ve seen more of the huge SE ridge linking with a -NAO the pst few years but just because that part is true, it doesn’t mean it’s true going forward or that a warmer climate caused it. Im always cautious in attributing largely stochastic features to a particular variable. So much of our snow blitzes in the 2000s/2010s came from that -NAO/-PNA couplet despite heights being noticeably higher than the 1960s when we saw a bunch of similar snow blitzes on that couplet.

Why would it make it more common for ridge linkage? You’d need the heights in the mid-latitude band to be rising faster than the heights in the arctic to make that true….otherwise you just get the same exact pattern as 1996 except everything is just up 10 or 20dm if the heights are rising together in similar magnitude. We’ve had excellent -PNA/-NAO patterns relatively recently (portions of 2016-17 come to mind and even the massive Mar 2018 snowgasm was -PNA/-NAO)

Well both times it failed we were snowing in the Rose Bowl so it’s kind of a limited example there. Your more classic RNA with the trough into WA/OR and maybe N CA would typically do very well with that pattern.

Yeah the NAO itself is stochastic enough and variable enough in it's own episodes that it's hard to generalize. You can have a very strong block but if you don't have a very strong TPV pinned under it, then you aren't going to get as much suppression. So the block isn't the only variable in that case....the strength and size of the TPV plays a role. REplace a monster TPV with a much smaller TPV lobe pinned underneath, and now maybe the same block is perfect for Boston snowstorm instead of DC. I do agree with @Typhoon Tip that we probably shouldn't take too much beyind D6-7 seriously at the moment (not that we ever should, but especially in this case) because that TPV/NAO coupling behavior is definitely notoriously bad on guidance. You have spokes of energy rotating around and other piece of energy diving down in the northern stream all interacting with it and it can change quickly.....hence why sometimes we'll see a monster bomb running due north near the BM on one run near 1/10 while the next set of runs might have nothing within 500 miles of that spot.

Big NAO blocks tend to be the most helpful during -PNA patterns. Much of the epic stretch in Feb 1969 consisted of that type of pattern and the first half of January 2011 did as well with that huge block. During +PNA, I'd rather have the NAO block centered toward Iceland or at least central Greenland....we saw sort of an Iceland block in the Feb 2003 pattern during that +PNA. Feb 1978 did have a west-based block and +PNA, but orientation was slightly different so that the PV wasn't sitting on top of our head. My biggest fear is a January 1985 repeat which I have mentioned a few times. We lost probably 2-3 legit threats that month due to overpowering NAO block with PV too close to us in SE Canada.

And that was 00z....12z barely gets 0.1" to Kevin's backyard. 00z got it almost to Canadian border. So those bigger northward members have probably almost all been eliminated.

At least you cleaned up in 12/20/09. Retro storm was pretty good too around New Years.

Yeah I'm pretty much ready to punt 1/6-7 after today's 12z suite. It was decidedly the opposite trend we wanted to see. Status quo would've been manageable at this lead time, but trending worse with the confluence just about closes the door. We'd need to see a quick reversal which is unlikely. I might keep an eye out further southwest near NYC but even there is starting to look bleak.

Dec through the New Years retrograde storm was actually a solid period....really shat the bed after that though west of you we did get the epic WINDEX event plus the MLK storm that caused Kevin to have a top 3 meltdown in the history of the forum.

Ukie is still amped....was the most amped at 00z too. It still has confluence problems though at the last second. Does get maybe 2-4" into most of SNE....less further northeast abd maybe a bit more in SW CT.

We want that PV west. Having it sit over us would basically be 10-14 days of cold/dry. Epic pond skating.

Except the confluence was decidedly stronger on the GFS....ICON is was weaker. Canadian was a bit stronger with confluence.

Too bad we can't phase in one of the PV spokes to get this north....prob the only realistic way to overcome such a stout TPV pinned there.

Canadian has an awesome shortwave which tries to push it north, but still too much confluence.

Way more confluence this run...total opposite trend of the ICON