ORH_wxman

We actually achieved it in back to back years in 2019-20 and 2020-21. Both years had bigger Decembers than January. In 2019-20, December was by far the biggest month and then it went completely dead the rest of the winter. In 2020-21, February rebounded big time after a lackluster January.

If there’s one golden nugget of hope, it’s that the Euro suite is dragging the SW energy the most and it’s a known model bias for it to do so. So perhaps we may see some slightly better solutions going forward if it can “catch up” to reality…that is assuming it is dragging the energy too much. If it’s not, then we’re cooked. But if it is, then we still have a legit chance for something decent. The discouraging part is that the other guidance has been dragging the southern vort too, just not as much as the Euro.

At least we got nice trends from the JMA and NAVGEM today. Who needs the EPS?

Southern vort is pretty different. Really dragging on EPS. But yeah, if it speeds up a bit, it could theoretically come back strong.

Yep that southern stream just wants to drag. If we can somehow speed it up just a tick, then I think we might be back in the game since the northern stream is trying to play ball on all guidance now…. but it gets harder to reverse trends once you get closer to the event…although we did see it in this last one when it tried to start coming north only to get shoved back south and jackpot Virginia.

It’s trying at 84h. Might try and pull a GFS at the last second and clip SE MA. Biggest problem is we’re getting inside of 60h on the key players for phasing potential so it gets hard to make decent sized moves on those.

Euro looks no good at 66h. Might be slightly better than 06z but we need more than nominal trends. The bigger solutions are on life support imho.

Thanks for the analysis.

Ukie got significantly worse. Might be an ominous sign for Euro later.

Yep. Improvement from 00z but when you’re improving from total garbage, there’s still work to do. A lot of the 12z solutions are very similar so far. The garbage ones from 00z got better but the decent ones haven’t.

Some of these runs are becoming more northern-stream dominant as the southern stuff gets sheared while the N stream simultaneously is trying to improve and dig more. So we’re getting some middle solutions. Perhaps it morphs into something like that….but if we can speed back up that southern stream a bit, then some nukes might start showing up again too.

Yeah the end result was slightly better than 06z for south shore and SE MA. Not a huge difference but there’s a path for warning snowfall if you give it just a little more phasing.

Southern energy really tries to catch up at last second. N stream digs down and it’s close. Frustrating to track this event on guidance because visually I can keep seeing how damned close it is to a much bigger deal.

Yeah not gonna happen this run. Clock is ticking faster and faster on this threat.

Southern stream is dragging a bit though on GFS this run. That’s becoming an issue on multiple models.

Energy in Canada looks a bit better on 12z GFS through 39 hours. Hopefully this starts coming back a bit.

They were on suicide watch up north in 2015-16. But yeah once you get back to something resembling normal climo, they will always clean up and make up lost ground….2018-19 was another monster winter up in NNE while it was kind of meh down here.

We’ll be moving onto the ARW runs in another couple days….powderfreak in 2015 drinking straight out of the bottle posting random ARW runs that deformed BTV instead of BOS. We almost lost him that winter.

RGEM actually is trying more than I thought once you get to 84h. Still wouldn’t be a big solution but might be one of those knife’s edge advisory type snowfalls if we could see a few more panels.

Icon took a step back at 12z. RGEM looks better. Neither is going to produce much for us verbatim in those solutions

100 mi SE of BM is mostly a fish storm. Maybe the cape and E coastline gets some if the precip shield isn’t too compact…but a somewhat compact precip shield is a risk in this one.

Yeah the 06z OP and EPS both improved decently. We need another one at 12z though.

Gonna need a good 12z bump today or it’s prob curtains.

Globals not loving the storm so far at 00z. Euro has been the eastern model so it would be nice if we saw a more phased solution later. Euro coming west would keep us in the game at least.