ORH_wxman

I mean, what’s the alternative, 44F rainstorms with an AK vortex? I’ll keep rolling the dice with a good look and hope the nuances don’t screw us over…in the long run, you’ll do well betting on those looks.

Look at the NAO region right back into Hudson Bay on the OP run versus the ensemble mean.

I think there is always undertones of CC baked in anywhere, but the question is whether it explains 60% of the issue or 1% of the issue. I lean toward the latter in this specific case. There's so many other variables (including other parts of the atmospheric circulation that CC influences) that can offset a single variable....a very simplistic example would be "more precip in the winter is offsetting warmer temps which is why we saw an increase in snowfall from the 1970s-2010s". There's probably a large influence of natural variability there as well, but we do know that increased precip and increased temps are an undertone to CC and both of those occurred...however, when it came to snowfall, one of those was offsetting the other.

Yeah it's true in a vacuum....the idealized model so-to-speak. You are preaching to the choir on the physics of this. But clearly there is something offsetting the isolated variable of westerlies/polar jet because our cold season precipitation is not even holding neutral. That's why I'm skeptical of "oh the reason we can't get a storm to amplify right now is because climate change has screwed the orientation of the jet stream so now we're stuck with a disproportionate number of positively tilted troughs versus the 1981-2010 baseline." If that were true, we'd see a drastic decrease in cold season precipitation, but we haven't. It's hard to ever prove anything in the case of a few events or even a few seasons....but my hunch is the reason we're failing in the shorter term here is that the block is verifying stronger and further west than originally progged which is turning the flow extremely meridional to our west next week while simultaneously not allowing any real downstream ridging....so it is going to leave us with a positively tilted longwave trough.

Poleward shift but also weaker trend as well....i dunno, doesn't seem very convincing in explaining our current predicament. But my default is always to be skeptical of attribution of any given setup to a larger trend. It would seem to only explain a general warming trend and the the result of deceasing delta-T between polar region and mid-latitudes (hence the weakening of the jets when arctic warms faster than mid-latitude). Of course, I'm sure we'll have no problem getting negatively tilted troughs when we are lacking good confluence in Quebec.

Do we know for a fact that we are getting more positively tilted troughs than usual in recent years? That would normally have a consequence of much drier sensible wx than normal, but that doesn't seem to fit the observed data.

CC monitoring on a global or even national scale won't be affected by a few bad data points....there's so many of them that it amounts to a rounding error. But it will certainly affect the local climo records. When you have a 5 year period that is consistently calibrated 1-2F too warm, that would definitely be a problem. It will also affect model verification stats and could be an increasing problem for models that learn from observed data. If the models are accurate for their temps, but they "think" they are running 1-2F too cold versus reality when they actually aren't, that would be an issue too.

Yeah maybe it doesn't work out....but then again, this current pattern is still only in its infancy. Something in the 1/10-1/15 range could easily pop. We had zero problems getting negatively tilted troughs on New Year's day.....

Gladly take a roll of the dice with this pattern at end of EPS.....slightly neg PNA with AK ridging and an east-based -NAO....at least suppression would be less of a worry.

Yeah PSM is the same, but they should prob be a touch warmer than DAW....and DAW being 3-4F warmer than SFM seems a bit suspect. At least its not like 3-4F warmer than PSM now, lol.

Looks like it’s better…now ORH/BDL OTOH….

Someone with an NWS tech background posted in here before and said if the ASOS thermometers are within 2F of calibration, it “passes”. I remember being astounded that it wasn’t an order of magnitude less than that.

The “ineedsnow” intensity correction formula for falling snow is to just move the decimal one place to the right on reported visibility (or implied visibility from reported snow intensity).

Solid 1-2F of separation. That’s so bad. The reason the graph is such a tell is that if differences in departures were due to random variance in weather conditions, you’d expect different stations to be warmer/colder outliers each time. But this is a consistent pattern which tells us the instrumentation is not correct.

That's the really hard part...you need to keep the trends going and not have it revert back even partially.

GFS prob gets a C-1" deal into a chunk of CT.

Not very interesting up here....it might suck the CT crew back into the 1/6-7 threat though.

That was the final big storm threat of the season near the equinox....I remember it well. ORH only needed like 3-4 inches to break their all time March monthly snowfall record and they couldn't even do it. It's amazing how much snow we got that month despite two large busts (at least in the interior)....the other one was the Mar 2nd storm which was supposed to be a rain to heavy wet snow scenario over interior. Didn't flip until way too late.

Graph of monthly departures since January 2021 for the 4 major first order BOX climo sites Legend: Blue = BOS Orange = ORH Purple = BDL Yellow = PVD Frankly, the last 2-3 years has been particularly embarrassing....absolute clown show from ORH and BDL slipped off the reservation too. PVD (we noted this a while ago too) started going cold as well in the other direction. You can see they fixed BOS sometime in late 2021...we had known they were too warm prior to that. All of these are going into the official database too to produce more normals once we get to 2030. @dendrite@CoastalWx

Almost looks like a neutral or even slightly negative PNA pattern developing beyond 1/15 to go with the -NAO.

Ptype issues.

Sygyzy storm…that was one of the few great ones in the 1980s. Jan 9187 was actually an epic month at ORH. Almost 50” of snow that month. That decade did have some good November and spring storms as well (April ‘82, 3/29/84, 4/28/87).

18z euro was a headfake. Glad I didn’t stay up and wait for 00z runs. Hopefully the stuff beyond 1/7 trends better in the coming days.

Feb 2013 had an Iceland block/ridge too. Just give us that one. Not asking too much.

The NAO configuration I like a lot more on that too. We talk about about different types of -NAOs but the version that backs up from Scandinavia through Iceland and Greenland tend to be extremely productive for us when we have western ridging. They don’t suffocate us as much.