ORH_wxman

I’m assuming AI will eventually learn from its errors. But it’s prob gonna be a bumpy road.

Nasty forecast here…if gradient is closer to 128, then we rip here. If it’s more like just outside of 495, we’re in trouble. I think ORH to Ray’s area is in good shape.

Sorry I meant storm vista. The wx bell isn’t that different than the weathermodels. Some differences on the margins but SV was like a Taunton to Carver jackpot, lol

I also cannot believe the model differences at less than 48 hours out.

What’s up with the wx bell clown maps. Doesn’t look like the weathermodels one.

GFS came in a little colder too. Maybe we’ll get a GFS/Euro convergence today.

They look a bit juicier than the OP in terms of amplification but not by much. But that’s prob a good sign we’re gonna see model convergence. Betting OP is still a bit too flat

Euro AI itself is a massive hit for us in the moderate interior. But trusting any OP right now is asking for trouble. I think we’d take a model blend right now and run.

Yeah I thought for a minute it was gonna try and NAM further south for the ending but it didn’t quite have enough juice aloft. NAM is still in its own world with that h5 look deepening so fast.

Yep but it was after the 12z rogue GFS run. Nobody believed the GFS and then the 18z runs all started trending toward it.

Crazy gradients around 495 on both models. Rgem looked a little cooler by a smidge. Not that we really care what these models say unless the euro and GFS agree with them at this time range.

I think Boxing Day 2010 was basically the only time the GFS scored a NW coup in the 2005-2020 era. I do remember it scored a NW coup in back when it was the AVN in the New Years weekend 2000 storm. But that was back when the 12z Euro came out at 8pm on weather.unisys

I think you all are overestimating how good the forecasts/model guidance was 10 or 15 years ago. We used to have SWFEs in the late 2000s and early 2010s hammering DC like 4 days out and then mixing got into S NH by verification. Back in the days when Ekster was trolling Nikolai 4 days out on how the GFS DC jackpot was a great sign for New England. Once we got inside 84 hours, we started getting deadly at times (and all of us knew many of the model biases back then as they were more distinct)….but even then, we had plenty of crazy moves inside of 3 days.

A 2 to 1 blend in favor of Euro would actually be one of the few ways we get widespread 4-8” amounts across a lot of SNE into CNE. Maybe we’ll actually catch a knife’s edge in our favor this time. Would be nice juju to start the season after the last several years.

Euro would be nice for interior SE MA. Wonder if Brett can whine his way to a warning event.

Yeah mean either but also not sold on the low going up your Fanny or even Canal runners. Tough forecast.

NAM and ICON get play because they come out first.

Good news is the EPS has been manhandling the GEFS for the early December period. GEFS has been caving to EPS when it gets to like D10-11-12. Hopefully that continues because EPS looks really good. Even popping western ridging week 2 where a more substantial system could develop in that look.

All of these H5 looks (not including the NAM which goes crazy deep and consolidated) are trending toward this partial phase with northern stream and the vort gets sheared and attenuates…this is turning this system pretty ugly from an organization standpoint. I’d like to see a trend back toward keeping the southern vort a little more independent longer at 00z tonight but I’m becoming skeptical we will see that.

I’m tossing the NAM. Even the crazy GFS runs weren’t that amped.

They are gonna be really bad near the isothermal mix line. But I think they will be fine over the interior and comfortably north of the 0C 925-850 zone.

Yeah it has 6”+ here. I’m still pretty pessimistic for warning snows but maybe advisory has a decent chance.

Yes. But prob just advisory snows.

It’s prob gonna be a compromise lime usual. But evena compromise isn’t that great because the trend has been to keep the midlevels kind of open. So it’s gonna be weaker with dynamics and QPF.

Yep still shunts east like 06z. Kind of ugly. Would be cold enough across a lot of SNE but flaccid rates mean 2-4” type deal or even less near coast.