ORH_wxman

Ukie only goes out to 144 on freebie maps but it looks more like the phased solution of northern and southern streams. Prob ptype issues on that look.

Yep I would like to see that second northern stream s/w dive in and phase after the initial northern streamer s/w outruns the southern s/w. Certainly a good background pattern to trend a sharper northern stream with the building western ridge. We’ll see how it plays out. Canadian is trying to force the first northern stream shortwave to be the main show with the southern stream lagging behind a bit but not enough to ruin the storm. Verbatim a nice hit on GGEM but an unstable solution.

Wide right on GFS. But honestly not a terrible spot for 7 days out. There’s a lot of ways to get that further north.

ICON wants to play ball but more for 2/14 rather than 2/12-13. It lags the southern stream behind and let’s northern stream outrun it and then amplifies the southern stream into the main event. That’s a pretty good look because it creates a better antecedent airmass out ahead of the storm. We’ll see what the real models say in a bit.

I’m in Quincy today and could see the line of clouds just to the west when I left home but then everything got thicker and thicker overcast as I went east. Pretty cool to see.

It would have been a monster storm without CC. I think that is where people get tied up in knots. I mean, there was 50”+ in the 1888 blizzard down at our latitudes (just not in eastern areas) too. So yeah…CC enhanced it, but it’s not like that would’ve been a run-of-the-mill 25” blizzard without it. Atmospheric Water vapor increases about 7% with every degree Celsius rise…so you can do some quick math to see how much extra water we’re working with compared to several decades ago.

It’s inherently tough to “blame” things on multiple causes. Our brains aren’t really wired that way…we want to have a quick and easy one-stop-shop explanation. That’s why you get so many people who bristle anytime you try and assign multiple causes for a weather event or season. As someone who has looked at so much climate data since I started studying this stuff over 2 decades ago, I was already aware of the large swings we see in the past so when we get them in the present, I don’t feel the need to pretend it’s a new phenomenon. It’s easier to break warm records now and harder to break cold records due to CC. Aside from that, I’m usually hesitant to put too much attribution on CC for other weather phenomenon since those are much messier datasets and you lose the robustness of the relationship. This is particularly true for snowfall in New England. Even temps are a bit messy…they increase long term but we see large temporal and spacial variations (I always tell people to look at the 2-3 decade trend in the N plains/Rockies)…sometimes natural variation is working in the same direction as CC and sometimes it is not.

Let’s not get carried away just yet. Start at 3-4 feet and we can always adjust higher.

And yes, there was a pretty awful stretch of snowfall between 1930-1955 at ORH. It covers both sites, but even if you bumped up the totals slightly from the old site prior to 1947, you’d still have low totals in the 1930s and 40s.

ORH pre-airport site is anything prior to 1947-48 I think.

Yeah if you’re gonna separate those two streams, then you def want that northern stream running out far enough ahead so it didn’t suppress the southern stream too much.

@CoastalWx did 06z eps look better aloft at 144? I only got sfc mean…spacing looked better but can’t tell if trough looked a bit healthier or not.

Enough ensemble support to keep an eye on.

I’d be happy with one major (double digits) and one moderate warning event from here on out. I’m hoping for more than that, but realistically we have about 4-5 weeks left starting next week when things become favorable again. Sometimes you can get on a heater and grab a bunch of snow in a short time, but until I see the storm threats lining up, I am not holding my breath.

That was a great system that came way west in the final 48-60 hours. It was almost a whiff at like 84 hours iirc.

Mean has advisory type stuff N of the pike....so that probably tells me there's some decent members mixed with the skunk jobs and cutters. I'm not particularly interested in that threat, but I think there's a subtlety growing threat for that Feb 16-18 timerange. I think if we're gonna pull off something major in this pattern, that's the first real chance. Sometimes the first chance is the only chance too....hopefully not this time.

Snow is still frozen in my front yard despite being near 40F....but it's shaded and the dewpoint is like 6F.

Phase 8 in February El Nino since 1975 (when archives of RMM plots began) Feb 1977: None Feb 1978: Feb 7-28 Feb 1983: None Feb 1987: None Feb 1988: Feb 21-29 Feb 1992: None Feb 1995: Briefly Feb 1-2 (Feb 4th was only large storm that year) Feb 1998: Briefly Feb 26th Feb 2003: Briefly Feb 15-16 Feb 2005: Feb 19-28 Feb 2007: Feb 10-13 Feb 2010: Feb 6-28 (sans Feb 22-24 when it looped back to phase 7) Feb 2015: Feb 5-12 Feb 2016: None Feb 2019: Feb 14-23

Yeah although the 2010 block was on epic 'roids. I'd be surprised if we repeat the strength of that block. I'm not overly worried about the pattern, but I wanted to point out differences. A GEFS type evolution would allow more chances for mild-ish days to sneak into the picture even if it's not really a massive impediment to larger coastal storms. The tropical forcing does seem to want to counter it from getting to an actual hostile level as you said....I'd fade torch/snowless when we're in phase 8 in february, since it basically never happens in an El Nino.

I think it depends on how hostile the PAC is...it doesn't go 2022-2023 on us....at least not yet. If it's just a "meh" PAC rather than overtly hostile, then a solid -AO/NAO can do wonders....that's exactly what happened in February 2021...and if you want to go back further, Feb 1969.

Also noting some divergence in the EPS and GEFS out at the end of their runs....GEFS is trying to really push a very strong low into the GOA....Euro keeps it weaker and a bit further west....e.g., GEFS has a rapidly deteriorating PAC while the EPS does not. Both have a potent -NAO/AO though....which would be quite beneficial in the event of a deteriorating PAC, but a more hostile PAC starts to leave you with less wiggle room. Good news is that EPS led the GEFS for the mid-month switch, so hopefully they are more correct. We're also dealing with a potential SSW around the ides....if that happens, it could affect early March.

Interior elevations....airmass is marginal and system looks weak. I guess if we make it a more potent system, it could get more interesting.

The 2/13 threat is prior to good airmass advecting in…i mentioned this a couple days ago. Not a system of interest outside the interior elevated areas.

I got snow cover in my front yard while across the street is grass. Spring snow pack pattern.

Yeah your area hasn’t been bad at all. December was a tire fire but you’ve had pack since 1/7 and around 30” in January.