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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    No help on trends from RGEM or ICON. We’re prob toast up here for anything more than C-1”. South coast to Cape still has a chance at something more interesting.
  2. ORH_wxman
    17 years ago today…hard to believe. Almost all of this fell at about 31F
  3. ORH_wxman
    NAM looks like it regressed slightly from 18z. It’s definitely been fairly consistently paltry.
  4. ORH_wxman
    GEFS continuing the semi-interesting look going into Xmas Eve/Xmas. It’s obviously not your ideal coastal storm pattern but we’ve seen some interesting winter wx systems on looks like the below…overrunning snow/SWFE/potential ice…something to watch…you get a ripple or vort energy being shot across the center of the CONUS and it runs into that brick wall north of New England
  5. ORH_wxman
    18z euro brought the lighter QPF a bit north but trimmed back slightly south coast and Cape. Mostly just noise though.
  6. ORH_wxman
    We’ll need slight nudges north almost every cycle from here on out to get solid advisory amounts more than 25 miles north of the south coast. Your area might not need quite as many nudges.
  7. ORH_wxman
    Rgem looked a little skimpier but pretty close to 12z. Icon came north like the NAM did so that was the two most suppressed models at 12z coming north and the juiciest one slightly nudging S (or at least less QPF)…so there is some model convergence going on.
  8. ORH_wxman
    South coast is really close to a big hit there. The system as a whole was more organized.
  9. ORH_wxman
    Only out to 20 hours, but 18z NAM prob gonna join the rest of guidance…not quite as suppressed with heights over GL/Northeast as 12z run. Not a total shock as the NAM was one of the most suppressed runs at 12z.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Probably assuming the cutter is real. Still some disagreement but I’d be shocked if we didn’t get at least one very mild day. Sunday’s event is just for aesthetics for a few days…we’re gonna need something in the 12/22-12/25 range to get the White Xmas…and it’s possible we could get that…ensembles have been coming around to the idea of overrunning/SWFE potential when looking at the H5 anomalies heading into Christmas Eve.
  11. ORH_wxman
    I think outside of the NAM (which is prob safe to ignore for now…maybe by 00z it starts be more useful), the 12z suite was enough to at least give a 1-3” floor for the south coast/Cape. Hopefully we can inch this a little further north.
  12. ORH_wxman
    Yeah 12z euro gives most of New England a nice event on Xmas eve (maybe starting overnight 12/23)…high end advisory and then frigid Xmas day.
  13. ORH_wxman
    Yeah could be a C-1” deal. Wish we’d get a 2-4” clipper for once.
  14. ORH_wxman
    All small ponds here totally frozen over. Charles river in Dover was frozen on the way to work today. I wonder if it’s starting to freeze near back bay. That would be extra impressive.
  15. ORH_wxman
    I think the one hope is the vort comes in a little stronger. Should get a better sample of it on the 00z runs. I don’t think it would be enough to help further north but it could be enough to get the pike region more firmly into a 2-4” type zone instead of C-1”. It would also help get the southern peeps in on a borderline warning event. Again, unlikely but we’ve seen some last second trends before and the stronger vort is probably the most likely way you’d get the small bump.
  16. ORH_wxman
  17. ORH_wxman
    Skynet prob not seeing John McClane’s caution flags and broadbrushing QPF too far north.
  18. ORH_wxman
    12z euro backed down a little from the 06z “zonked” run…no surprise. Still a decent event for far Se areas.
  19. ORH_wxman
    You can get huge cutters in a gradient pattern. It will be very hard to avoid one. It’s possible but unlikely. The gradient also sets up decently north…so it’s gonna get milder and milder relative to normal once you’re getting south of NNE.
  20. ORH_wxman
    Need a lot more than that outside of the Cape/South coast
  21. ORH_wxman
  22. ORH_wxman
    Not buying Reggie
  23. ORH_wxman
    Might be. Dry air will be eating away at the precip shield as it moves ENE. Could be a scenario where SW CT does a lot better than SE MA outside of the Cape.
  24. ORH_wxman
    C-2” deal except maybe south coast and Cape can still get something a little higher.
  25. ORH_wxman
    It’s def possible we are cold around Cmas. That H5 look really needs to be further east for us to furnace.
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