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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    H7 low basically tracks over southern shore of LI to Block Island or maybe just a touch S of BID on the GFS....that's a great spot for HFD/ORH/BOS.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Looks a touch better than 06z
  3. ORH_wxman
    There;s your NJ model low on the ICON....GFS was close at 06z, we'll see if it comes aboard at 12z.
  4. ORH_wxman
    Yeah it's wringing out all the QPF where the best 850-900 forcing is...I'd expect to see that when you have a really weak vort and a more rounded trough....not a neg tilt with a strong vort.
  5. ORH_wxman
    Funny how the Reggie QPF is so paltry again outside of SE MA but the H7 fronto is in the roughly same spot as NAM
  6. ORH_wxman
    ICON is south of 06z....though the 06z ICON was easily the furthest north model. The 12z ICON is going to look a lot like the 12z NAM
  7. ORH_wxman
    NAM was pretty much there...you'd prob get the northern part of the good banding
  8. ORH_wxman
    Agreed....QPF is very useful, though even that can be iffy at times, but QPF is an order of magnitude better than snow maps. When it comes to coastals, give me some good Mid-level maps with fronto and a few soundings....the QPF map can then be used with those other variables to get a more accurate picture of the potential snowfall.
  9. ORH_wxman
    Going to be a sharp cutoff....I don't think it goes from like 10-12" to 2" in 10 miles....but it could go from 12" to about 5-6" in 15-20 miles.
  10. ORH_wxman
    You don't want that bumped more....best banding is typically just N of H7 fronto
  11. ORH_wxman
    I've become more and more disillusioned with clown maps...they are lazy and often too wrong...looking at mid-levels and soundings is way better.
  12. ORH_wxman
    This is poundtown look at H7
  13. ORH_wxman
    Def a good bump N of 06z through 24h.
  14. ORH_wxman
    12z NAM so far seems to have more northern stream interaction through 18h vs 06z....so we'll see if this bumps back a touch NW with the precip shield.
  15. ORH_wxman
    Alright man....see you in April then.
  16. ORH_wxman
    Eastern coastline....it's fine back west.
  17. ORH_wxman
    Clipper for Thu night has been coming back stronger the last 24h.
  18. ORH_wxman
    Tossed. Southern outlier now.
  19. ORH_wxman
    Can’t rule it out. You prob want to see a little tick back north to feel safe there.
  20. ORH_wxman
    Midlevels look very good for that corridor. But prior to going to bed last night I had mentioned a steep cutoff in precip and that’s still showing up this morning so im thinking it’s real. I think less northern stream interaction is helping increase the gradient. Someone is going to get absolutely smoked though on the northern side where the fronto band sets up.
  21. ORH_wxman
    There definitely seems to be not only a southward trend, but the precip cutoff is becoming tighter. You might go from a foot to 2” in a span of 15 miles if these solutions are correct. Something we’ll have to watch for on the next couple cycles…if that very tight gradient persists.
  22. ORH_wxman
    You are correct with this for most of the SNE forum members and a chunk of the southern CNE members. Coast still has some legit concerns though…esp like cape over to SE CT coast.
  23. ORH_wxman
    Clown maps are prob going to be woefully overdone on the southern 20% of their coverage.
  24. ORH_wxman
    No they dont
  25. ORH_wxman
    That was actually a really nice run for your ‘hood looking at H7.
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