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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    OP euro looks like a clean whiff. Might be the furthest east now.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Yep. One of them is gonna crash and burn and it’s prob gonna be the AI guidance. But no guarantees. We wait and see.
  3. ORH_wxman
    In a synoptic threat 3-4 days out, it’s going to be extremely tough to defeat the Euro/GFS and their ensembles if they are in close agreement. I’d want to see the 12z euro improve at least…otherwise I’d be more inclined to punt the AIs. However, a 70/30 compromise in favor of the OP models will still produce some accumulating snow in eastern zones, but obviously not a big event.
  4. ORH_wxman
    Gonna be a couple threats next week…Friday looking like the most threatening, but perhaps a smaller one on Wednesday. Most are focused on the 1/18 failure, but next week may fly under the radar until then.
  5. ORH_wxman
    GEFS are pretty damned close to EPS now as well. A little better than the OP runs but not by a lot. Maybe an inch or two for eastern areas.
  6. ORH_wxman
    Wagons east on the Ukie. Whiff.
  7. ORH_wxman
    You could argue it never bought into the deep ULL traveling south of us for 1/15 when the other guidance was trying to show it. It turned out more correct. But that wasn’t nearly as high stakes imho than this one. This one is definitely more of a fundamental difference. I’m skeptical AI will score the coup but this is a good test.
  8. ORH_wxman
    Yeah that’s actually a tick worse than 06z. No difference to us, but at least 06z was getting outer Cape and islands into decent stuff.
  9. ORH_wxman
    This is actually the best test yet because we have definitive camps for the AI models on both GFS and Euro. Big difference in the same direction between OP runs and the skynet runs.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Pretty much on par with 06z on OP run. Skynet actually trended better.
  11. ORH_wxman
    OP run looks like ka-ka through 72
  12. ORH_wxman
    If we can get that MN kicker s/w to keep digging west, that is going to help. You want to do anything to help the southern vort gain latitude without sacrificing too much eastward longitude. NAM is digging it further west which was good…not that the NAM is good, but that’s what you’ll want to see on other model guidance.
  13. ORH_wxman
    Prob a scraper for SE areas. Not relevant though at this time range.
  14. ORH_wxman
    We need to lock Scooter into a padded room until we are 24 hours away from a big storm…once we’re confident it’s a hit, we’ll let him out.
  15. ORH_wxman
    EPS continues to be quite bullish post-1/20. So regardless of this 1/18 system, I think we’re gonna have chances. But I do think it would go a long way to trying to still salvage normal or AN snow if we can get at least a moderate hit out of 1/18. Esp if the last 10 days of the month can deliver too. This is gonna be a higher stakes pattern though. We play with the SE ridge for about a week or slightly less before we have another bout of western ridging to close the final 5-7 days of the month out.
  16. ORH_wxman
    What is making it more perplexing to me is we’re seeing conflicting trends so I don’t see how we just punt this yet. Yeah, the 06z gfs looked awful but both AIs got better at 06z and the euro maybe slightly got better (not saying much though). It’s admittedly a tight squeeze and I don’t expect a major event like some of the more bullish solutions. But I wouldn’t write off a solid advisory to perhaps even low end warning event in spots yet.
  17. ORH_wxman
    Clown range for both of them. Want to see GFS come back NW and euro make a move at 12z. Really the only two that matter at 72-84h. The mesos will become slightly more useful as we get closer but not really that trustworthy until like < 48h
  18. ORH_wxman
    Yeah I mean a bad trend at 12z might be enough to mostly write off any chance at a warning event but even with a poor trend at 12z, hard to punt any accumulating snow for eastern areas yet. It would have to be a severe trend I think.
  19. ORH_wxman
    Why is everyone just punting? Even the shittiesr solutions are scraping the coast. Doesn’t take much to get accumulating snow at least to eastern areas.
  20. ORH_wxman
    ORH to Kevin should be plenty cold enough for snow. It’s the QPF that is the question. If you get less than a tenth of QPF at 31-33F then it might be just coatings. But you rip a quarter inch and I can easily see 1-3”
  21. ORH_wxman
    I think you could easily pick up 1-2” provided the QPF is there on Saturday.
  22. ORH_wxman
    06z euro no real change from 00z….maybe ticked slightly better if you squint.
  23. ORH_wxman
    That 06z GFS was kind of spooky. Everything was trending great until that run. Hopefully we get a tick west here on 06z Euro. The skynet models (both GFS and Euro skynet) have kept ticking west though. Good sign there.
  24. ORH_wxman
    GEFS individual lows
  25. ORH_wxman
    Ukie was still mostly a miss. Scraper. But it was better than 12z.
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