ORH_wxman

Euro AI itself is a massive hit for us in the moderate interior. But trusting any OP right now is asking for trouble. I think we’d take a model blend right now and run.

Yeah I thought for a minute it was gonna try and NAM further south for the ending but it didn’t quite have enough juice aloft. NAM is still in its own world with that h5 look deepening so fast.

Yep but it was after the 12z rogue GFS run. Nobody believed the GFS and then the 18z runs all started trending toward it.

Crazy gradients around 495 on both models. Rgem looked a little cooler by a smidge. Not that we really care what these models say unless the euro and GFS agree with them at this time range.

I think Boxing Day 2010 was basically the only time the GFS scored a NW coup in the 2005-2020 era. I do remember it scored a NW coup in back when it was the AVN in the New Years weekend 2000 storm. But that was back when the 12z Euro came out at 8pm on weather.unisys

I think you all are overestimating how good the forecasts/model guidance was 10 or 15 years ago. We used to have SWFEs in the late 2000s and early 2010s hammering DC like 4 days out and then mixing got into S NH by verification. Back in the days when Ekster was trolling Nikolai 4 days out on how the GFS DC jackpot was a great sign for New England. Once we got inside 84 hours, we started getting deadly at times (and all of us knew many of the model biases back then as they were more distinct)….but even then, we had plenty of crazy moves inside of 3 days.

A 2 to 1 blend in favor of Euro would actually be one of the few ways we get widespread 4-8” amounts across a lot of SNE into CNE. Maybe we’ll actually catch a knife’s edge in our favor this time. Would be nice juju to start the season after the last several years.

Euro would be nice for interior SE MA. Wonder if Brett can whine his way to a warning event.

Yeah mean either but also not sold on the low going up your Fanny or even Canal runners. Tough forecast.

NAM and ICON get play because they come out first.

Good news is the EPS has been manhandling the GEFS for the early December period. GEFS has been caving to EPS when it gets to like D10-11-12. Hopefully that continues because EPS looks really good. Even popping western ridging week 2 where a more substantial system could develop in that look.

All of these H5 looks (not including the NAM which goes crazy deep and consolidated) are trending toward this partial phase with northern stream and the vort gets sheared and attenuates…this is turning this system pretty ugly from an organization standpoint. I’d like to see a trend back toward keeping the southern vort a little more independent longer at 00z tonight but I’m becoming skeptical we will see that.

I’m tossing the NAM. Even the crazy GFS runs weren’t that amped.

They are gonna be really bad near the isothermal mix line. But I think they will be fine over the interior and comfortably north of the 0C 925-850 zone.

Yeah it has 6”+ here. I’m still pretty pessimistic for warning snows but maybe advisory has a decent chance.

Yes. But prob just advisory snows.

It’s prob gonna be a compromise lime usual. But evena compromise isn’t that great because the trend has been to keep the midlevels kind of open. So it’s gonna be weaker with dynamics and QPF.

Yep still shunts east like 06z. Kind of ugly. Would be cold enough across a lot of SNE but flaccid rates mean 2-4” type deal or even less near coast.

It’s still not as phased as those other solutions but keep an eye on trends.

12z euro looks more phased so I’m thinking we’re gonna get the big WAA push ahead of it instead of turning things to the east quicker. If that trend continues, it probably turns into a mostly non-event for SNE.

Yeah the Ukie is quite flaccid with rates. Not gonna be much warning snow on that look.

Euro is keeping that southern vort independent of the northern stream for quite a bit longer. These more amped models are trying to phase earlier so you get a big WAA surge out ahead of it.

GGEM was even slower than the GFS to turn the low and midlevels out of the east. And it’s because of how it handles the vort. It keeps a strong vort tracking through western NY. You aren’t getting big snowstorms for a good chunk of New England like that.

Similar but def warmer.

That was a trend better for SNE than previous runs. Still warmish but it at least holds snow for longer…gives you maybe advisory snows instead of a quick coating.