ORH_wxman

19z RAP ticked back NW a little bit compared to the 18z run. 19z HRRR doesn't look like it moved much at all. Gonna keep an eye on these post-18z runs. I don't think you should expect anything other than S trends with other 18z guidance that hasn't come out yet.

If you want to follow something definitive upstream that will tell us whether the latest southern guidance is more correct, look at the radar along the Ohio River in SE Ohio tonight between 8pm-midnight....almost all of the guidance that crushes SNE gets good precip just over the Ohio river into the border counties of SE Ohio....the crappy runs keep it in West Virginia and basically completely whiff those Ohio counties. It ends up making a big difference downstream later on for us as the difference gets magnified....

Euro uses more up-to-date data than the earlier 12z runs....part of its data assimilation process is that it can use ground truth to "Check" some of the 2z ingest. I'm not a total expert on the data assimilation for NWP guidance, but I do remember reading that was an advantage the Euro had several years ago.

I don't think it will be all that interesting...it's going to go way south because the 18z RAP/HRRR already did that....the 18z cycles clearly have data ingested that say this is going to be way south. The more interesting part of me is going to be if we see the mesos try and tick back N on the post-18z runs.

This is prob what Feb 1989 would have looked like if we had the same frequency of model output back then.

the 18z HRRR is already a solid 30 miles south of the 15z run at 14 hours.

What is concerning isn't just the south trend in and of itself...it's also causing the dynamics to be weaker because you're not curling up that vort as much like we see when you get just a tiny bit of northern stream insert.

It looks like it is going to....coming in flatter on 18z so far. Not sure it will be as bad as the RAP, but the trend will be south this run.

18z RAP gets no precip to the pike. 0.1" of QPF to about HFD.

1/27/11 was similar up here (down by you, it was always going to be a big storm)....models went from a huge hit around 48h out to almost a total whiff 24h out but then in the final 12 hours, they blitzed back NW....at first, the old RUC had us getting crushed at 12-18 hours out, but we sort of discounted it as RUC amped bias beyond 6 hours, but then it kept showing it and finally the 18z NAM came in and jumped way NW. Most of SNE got like 12-18" from that one

This type of model performance this close to the event is almost unheard of in the past 5-10 years...even 15 years ago it was not common.

Ukie is almost a copy....

Not verbatim, but it's still concerning if there's even a compromise between it and other guidance.

This is one of the worst modeled systems i can remember in the past 10-15 years. Guidance has been really bad with this. Reminds me a little of the 1/27/11 event in that respect, but that one actually started coming back in the final 12 hours....this one better reverse course soon if it wants to match that progression.

Dude was locking in the ICON a couple days ago while calling everyone weenies when it had mostly rain south of rt 2.....utter embarrassment.

Both NAMs, ICON and HREF all give you double digits. GFS technically a little south, but you'd prob score 10"+ on that run too given the ML fronto look. You may miss the goods if this ticks a little south, but there is guidance that hits you hard at 12z.

Temps or are you worried about the best stuff going south? Seems like if you end up with an inch of QPF but 925mb is like -3C during the bulk of the good stuff, you'll pound paste.

Your elevation there in "northern" SW CT might be a great spot for one of the highest totals.

PVD will do fine...they'll get warning criteria even if they don't jackpot.

GFS has another clipper right behind the 2/17-18 system. Active northern stream.

A lot of good cross-hair sigs showing up on different pieces of guidance.....if QPF is around an inch, wouldn't be surprised to see some of the hills get 15"+ since they can prob go 15 to 1 or better on the ratios with that look. Might be tougher to pull those ratios lower down where it's more like 32-33F.

Here's HREF QPF on the 12z run...looks kind of like the NAM though maybe a tiny tick S.

Actually I may have spoke too soon on 2/18...that's still a decent look and close to the NJ model low that @Typhoon Tip and I were discussing.

Looks a bit SE of where'd I'd expect. You don't have any worries there.

GFS juiced up the clipper this run...but the 2/18 threat looks weaker behind it.