bluewave

These long range OP runs can be very pretty. You can see a very broad -PNA trough developing in the ensemble means. Ongoing tug of war between the competing forcing influences On one hand you have the forcing near the Maritime Continent causing the -PNA trough. The 2nd factor is the forcing over the Western Hemisphere trying to build a ridge bridge over the top from Northern Greenland to the -WPO ridge. I suspect this split forcing is why we are getting a composite blend very long range between a Phase 6-7-8 look. The RMMS may try to slow the progression on the 7-8 border in response to split forcing. So at this point I would say early December will feature a broad gradient type pattern with cold across the Northern tier. Mid month will depend on the progression of the forcing. if the ridge bridge over the top wins out, then we will know a phase 8 is trying to take hold. If the -PNA and +EPO become more dominant and the trough pulls back to the west, then we will know the forcing near the Maritime Continent is having a greater influence. Recent experience has favored the 2nd option of a relaxation of the pattern mid to late month. If this doesn’t happen, then we’ll know something new is taking place which we haven’t seen in a while.

The same thing happened back in my old neighborhood of Long Beach. Growing up in the 1970s it was more like Coney Island with numerous boardwalk arcades and an amusement park. Then gentrification began in the 1980s and now multimillion dollar condos took the place of these former attractions. I always found very interesting people living there and it reminded me more of a NYC cosmopolitan neighborhood than a Long Island suburb. Out of all the places that I lived on Long Island, Long Beach had the most character. The condos and apartments below are right where the bowling alley used to be before it closed around 1980. https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/100-Boardwalk-Unit-1001_Long-Beach_NY_11561_M99207-31637 https://www.realtor.com/rentals/details/180-Boardwalk_Long-Beach_NY_11561_M94073-56016

Thanks for posting such beautiful photos. Probably one of the most in demand urban places in the U.S. that people want to move to. You are really lucky to be living in such a charming historic area. https://www.instagram.com/reel/DQZcBGhAEp7/

We haven’t been able to bet on El Niños or La Ninas near NYC over the past 7 winters with how strong the Northern Stream has become. In the old days some of my heaviest snowstorms were during El Niños back on the South Shore up to 2015-2016. These days you really want elevation and latitude in the Northeast.

Even with a very strong -EPO +PNA this fall on the storm days, the Western Atlantic ridge found a way to flex. The composite below is for the 11 wettest days of fall in NYC. The main storm track was still through the Eastern Great Lakes.

Plus we are talking about the long term increasing influence of the Southeast or Western Atlantic ridge on our sensible weather.

I will take warm winter with a cold storm track over a cold or near normal winter and a warm storm track.

December has been one of the most challenging months for sustaining deep -NAO patterns since 2011. Pretty much the opposite of May. This is one of the reasons why we haven’t seen a repeat of record December snows from 2000 to 2010 around NYC.

Mount Mansfield off to a great start.

This is why I would much rather roll the dice with a very strong El Niño even if the winter is very warm like 23-24. We got a one week relaxation from the overpowering Northern Stream which has been dominating last 7 years. The El Niño driven Southern Stream was 2nd strongest on record for DC.

This is also a function of the weaker PNA than last December which we were both expecting. More cold available in Canada than last December. But the same stubborn storm track.

Which is better for the Great Lakes into New England. Gradients usually end up farther north than originally forecast once we get into the short term compared to the longer range forecasts. Models not varying the storm track pattern with a dominant Northern Stream.

The ensembles always show variations with week 2 forecasts. There really hasn’t been that much of a change. Still looking at a Southeast ridge or Western Atlantic ridge and a trough digging into the Baja to start December. New day 6-10 Old day 11-15

The significant trend the models have been showing for early December is more of a Southeast ridge. Of course every run is going to show the departures on any given day being a little different when we are talking week 2 modeling. Some days the ridge will pulse up and others pulse down. But the continuing very fast Pacific flow will continue to limit or storm track options at least into early December.

It’s less important what the long range models are showing since that can vary from run to run. But the long range forecast biases for each type of regime remain more constant over time. Plus the inability of the models to see seasonal repeating patterns until the actual pattern is getting close to occurring.

Same storm track pattern heading into December. Great Lakes cutter, I-78 to I-84 hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream. Plus we haven’t had a gradient pattern work for us in over a decade.

Looks a little above average but noting too extreme like I pointed out in my original post.

We haven’t had any real cold around Thanksgiving since 2018. Data for November 22, 2018 through November 23, 2018 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY PORT JERVIS COOP 4 CT DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 6 CT OXFORD WATERBURY WBAN 6 NY WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP WBAN 6 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 7 NY SHRUB OAK COOP 7 NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN 7 NY CARMEL 4N COOP 7 CT DANBURY COOP 9 CT MOUNT CARMEL COOP 9 CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 10 NY WEST POINT COOP 11 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 11 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 11 CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 12 NY SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN 12 CT GROTON NEW LONDON AP WBAN 12 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 13 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 13 NJ HARRISON COOP 13 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 13 CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN 13 NY UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 13 CT GROTON COOP 13 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 13 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 14 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 14 NY MATTITUCK COOP 14 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 15 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 15 NY CENTERPORT COOP 15 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 15 NY BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 15 NY ORIENT POINT STATE PARK COOP 15 Data for November 22, 2018 through November 23, 2018 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. PA POCONO MOUNTAINS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT WBAN -2 NJ SUSSEX 1 NW COOP 5 NJ SUSSEX AIRPORT WBAN 6 PA SPRINGTOWN 1 NNE COOP 7 PA EAST STROUDSBURG COOP 7 PA BELTZVILLE DAM COOP 8 PA LEHIGHTON 1SSW COOP 8 NJ BELVIDERE BRIDGE COOP 8 NJ AEROFLEX-ANDOVER AIRPORT WBAN 8 NJ HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 9 NJ WERTSVILLE 4 NE COOP 9 NJ SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 9 NJ NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 9 PA BLUE MARSH LAKE COOP 10 PA GRATERFORD 1 E COOP 10 PA SELLERSVILLE COOP 10 PA BUCKSVILLE COOP 10 NJ FLEMINGTON 5 NNW COOP 10 NJ FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 10 NJ BOONTON 1 SE COOP 10

86-87 was one of those years when the 45-“50” amounts went just to our south with the El Niño that year. Data for October 1, 1986 through April 30, 1987 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. SUSSEX 1 NW COOP 70.0 HIGH POINT PARK COOP 53.9 LAKEHURST NAS WBAN 53.3 ESTELL MANOR COOP 48.1 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 47.3 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 47.3 POTTERSVILLE 2 NNW COOP 46.1 OAK RIDGE RESERVOIR COOP 45.5 INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP 45.4 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 44.8

Yeah, missing data interrupts the streaks even though they continue. The only time we had some relaxation of the Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet in recent years was in mid-February 2024. That was when that really narrow snowband in association with the record El Nino STJ streak occurred. But since it was only a one week pattern in such a warm winter, there wasn’t sufficient time for follow up events to occur and end the NYC and LGA streaks. So it upped the odds of the streak continuing at spots like NYC and LGA.

It’s a function of the snow drought that we have been in over the last 7 years that the entire area hasn’t had a daily 4” snowfall. Load the dice for lower seasonal snowfall totals over time and it makes streaks like this more likely. If we had long term continuous snowfall observations at smaller sites than NYC and LGA, then I am sure other spots beyond NYC and LGA would be continuing their under 4” streak also.

It looks like the LGA daily record streak under 4” is continuing also. There may be a glitch in the program they use to calculate. Since it shows it ending last January 10th and there were no daily 4” snowfall totals after that date. But there were several daily 3.5” totals last winter. Number of Consecutive Days Snowfall < 4 for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Period of record: 1940-01-01 to 2025-11-22 1 1077 2022-01-30 through 2025-01-10 2 1051 1961-02-05 through 1963-12-22 3 761 2018-11-16 through 2020-12-15 4 746 1950-02-14 through 1952-02-29 5 744 1979-02-20 through 1981-03-04 6 743 1996-03-09 through 1998-03-21 7 742 2011-01-28 through 2013-02-07 8 715 1972-02-24 through 1974-02-07 9 701 1975-02-13 through 1977-01-13 10 690 1941-03-09 through 1943-01-27 Climatological Data for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - January 2025 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Sum 1165 845 - - 1003 0 0.51 4.1 2025-01-01 52 40 46.0 9.9 19 0 T 0.0 0 2025-01-02 44 35 39.5 3.6 25 0 T 0.0 0 2025-01-03 40 32 36.0 0.3 29 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-01-04 34 29 31.5 -4.0 33 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-01-05 34 28 31.0 -4.4 34 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-01-06 32 23 27.5 -7.7 37 0 0.04 0.5 0 2025-01-07 34 20 27.0 -8.0 38 0 0.00 0.0 T 2025-01-08 31 24 27.5 -7.4 37 0 0.00 0.0 T 2025-01-09 34 24 29.0 -5.7 36 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-01-10 41 28 34.5 -0.1 30 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-01-11 36 29 32.5 -2.0 32 0 0.02 M T 2025-01-12 43 31 37.0 2.6 28 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-01-13 44 34 39.0 4.8 26 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-01-14 36 26 31.0 -3.2 34 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-01-15 33 24 28.5 -5.6 36 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-01-16 31 25 28.0 -6.0 37 0 T T 0 2025-01-17 44 27 35.5 1.6 29 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-01-18 46 36 41.0 7.1 24 0 0.11 0.0 0 2025-01-19 41 26 33.5 -0.3 31 0 0.18 3.6 M 2025-01-20 28 18 23.0 -10.8 42 0 T T 2 2025-01-21 20 13 16.5 -17.3 48 0 0.00 0.0 2 2025-01-22 21 13 17.0 -16.8 48 0 0.00 0.0 1 2025-01-23 30 18 24.0 -9.8 41 0 0.00 0.0 1 2025-01-24 34 25 29.5 -4.3 35 0 0.00 0.0 1 2025-01-25 33 23 28.0 -5.8 37 0 0.00 0.0 1 2025-01-26 44 32 38.0 4.2 27 0 0.00 0.0 T 2025-01-27 42 33 37.5 3.6 27 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-01-28 42 33 37.5 3.6 27 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-01-29 53 32 42.5 8.5 22 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-01-30 38 26 32.0 -2.1 33 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-01-31 50 38 44.0 9.9 21 0 0.16 0.0 0 Climatological Data for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - February 2025 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Sum 1174 827 - - 810 0 2.61 7.7 - Average 41.9 29.5 35.7 -0.6 - - - - 0.3 Normal 42.7 29.9 36.3 - 804 0 2.93 9.8 2025-02-01 50 22 36.0 1.8 29 0 T 0.0 0 2025-02-02 32 18 25.0 -9.3 40 0 0.10 1.2 0 2025-02-03 49 31 40.0 5.6 25 0 T T T 2025-02-04 50 31 40.5 5.9 24 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-02-05 37 27 32.0 -2.7 33 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-02-06 40 29 34.5 -0.3 30 0 0.32 0.4 T 2025-02-07 45 30 37.5 2.6 27 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-02-08 36 27 31.5 -3.6 33 0 0.58 3.5 0 2025-02-09 36 31 33.5 -1.7 31 0 0.05 0.1 2 2025-02-10 38 31 34.5 -0.9 30 0 0.00 0.0 2 2025-02-11 36 27 31.5 -4.1 33 0 0.12 1.0 1 2025-02-12 36 31 33.5 -2.2 31 0 0.10 0.5 2 2025-02-13 47 34 40.5 4.6 24 0 0.18 T T 2025-02-14 37 30 33.5 -2.6 31 0 0.00 0.0 T 2025-02-15 36 28 32.0 -4.3 33 0 0.37 0.6 0 2025-02-16 49 34 41.5 5.1 23 0 0.79 0.0 0 2025-02-17 38 27 32.5 -4.1 32 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-02-18 28 20 24.0 -12.8 41 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-02-19 31 18 24.5 -12.5 40 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-02-20 30 19 24.5 -12.7 40 0 T 0.4 0 2025-02-21 35 22 28.5 -8.9 36 0 0.00 0.0 T 2025-02-22 41 22 31.5 -6.1 33 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-02-23 47 35 41.0 3.2 24 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-02-24 49 34 41.5 3.5 23 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-02-25 57 43 50.0 11.8 15 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-02-26 57 43 50.0 11.6 15 0 T 0.0 0 2025-02-27 55 40 47.5 8.8 17 0 T 0.0 0 2025-02-28 52 43 47.5 8.6 17 0 T 0.0 0

Several of us came to the conclusion that the PNA would be weaker than last December by using different methods which converged on the same solution.

Thanks for the kind words. I really enjoy our discussions over the years. My guess is that the reason for both the CCKW and MJO activity following the pattern we have been describing is the extensive +28 to +30C warm pool near the 6-7 zones on the chart that you posted. So this has been causing the looping activity on the RMM charts that we have been frequently observing over recent years. The CCKW and MJO interaction could also be why we are seeing these stronger Southeast ridge patterns than just using a straight MJO 7 composite. I was hinting at this in our recent conversation on the MJO 7 composites. Perhaps these composites lose some effectiveness since the sample size of events is smaller and merged with the CCKW interactions which has been more recent as the WPAC warm pool has been expanding. So when the forcing stalls closer to the 6-7 regions, it delays the passage into Phase 8 like we have seen so often since February 2022. Plus the continuing 6-7 area convection interferes with the typical MJO 8 composites like last January when the Pacific Jet remained rather strong due to the lingering forcing there in concert with the very strong SST gradient over the midlatitude Pacific to the east of Japan and south of the Aleutians.

Thank you for the kind words. It’s good to see that we can each use different methods and converge on similar solutions. You do a fantastic job putting together your seasonal outlooks. It’s why this extended format discussion forum is such a valuable resource bringing us all together in the same spot.