bluewave

The current forecasts have it more neutral by fall.

The updated information incorporating a possible +IOD and La Niña with record Atlantic SSTs shows how active the hurricane season can be if all the pieces come together.

Widespread 0.5 to 1.5 with localized higher amounts.

Good question since we usually don’t see record SSTs in the NW Indian Ocean and a +IOD during developing La Ninas.

Yeah, it’s a nice improvement on next weeks forecast from a week ago. New run Old run

Looks mostly like a spring elevated convective event now focused during Thursday night. Good MUCAPE and near record PWATS will probably result in some locally heavy downpours. So more of a spring-like feel than our other recent storms which were big washouts.

Yeah, looks like our first possible extended warm up next week as the blocking pattern which began around 3-20 begins to fade.

Some amazing views from around BTV.

March was the 10th consecutive record breaking month for global temperatures. The SSTs also continue to set daily records. We’re are a few weeks now past the typical spring peak on 3-22.

First time since 1992 that NYC had its first 80° of the year before Newark. Data for January 1, 2024 through April 10, 2024 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 80 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 79 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 77 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 76 CT DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 76 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 75 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 75 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 75 CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 75 Data for January 1, 1992 through April 24, 1992 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 81 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 81 NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 80 NJ CRANFORD COOP 80 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 79 NJ LODI COOP 79 NJ WAYNE COOP 79 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 79

It’s pretty rare for NYC to have their first 80° day before Newark. But the lack of leaves on the trees to block the ASOS coupled with the bay breeze at Newark allowed them to do it. It’s also rare this time of year for NYC to beat Newark by 3°.

Yeah, looks like it’s a function of the rapidly warming subtropical oceans. https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-023-00839-w In this study, we evaluate the ocean warming pattern derived from four decades of satellite measurements. We find widespread strong subtropical ocean warming, concentrating mostly on the western ocean basins. In contrast to these observations, studies of paleoclimate suggest that the greatest ocean warming occurs at higher latitudes. By pairing the observed warming pattern with SST evolution in long-term climate simulations, we propose that the observed warming pattern is constrained by ocean dynamics of surface convergence (downwelling, subtropical gyres) and divergence (upwelling, subpolar gyres) rather than being dominated by internal variabilities, such as the PDO.

Yeah, upper 70s to around 80° just west of the backdoor.

One of the stronger west based blocking patterns that we have seen in early April. Interesting how the spring has been one of our better blocking seasons of the year recently. This has allowed the cooler maxes to dominate with the mild minimums.

Gorgeous satellite loop. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/GOES_US/loop60.html

Looks like the HRRR has it factored in.

It would be a rarity not to reach 80° by the end of April since we have done it every year since 2001. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Highest Max Temperature Jan 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 2024-04-30 75 23 2023-04-30 93 0 2022-04-30 88 0 2021-04-30 89 0 2020-04-30 80 0 2019-04-30 80 0 2018-04-30 84 0 2017-04-30 87 0 2016-04-30 83 0 2015-04-30 82 0 2014-04-30 83 0 2013-04-30 85 0 2012-04-30 88 0 2011-04-30 87 0 2010-04-30 92 0 2009-04-30 93 0 2008-04-30 82 0 2007-04-30 86 0 2006-04-30 83 0 2005-04-30 88 0 2004-04-30 88 0 2003-04-30 88 0 2002-04-30 97 0 2001-04-30 87 0 2000-04-30 78 0

Areas north and east of NYC have had close to 70”of precipitation since last July. Data for July 1, 2023 through April 8, 2024 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Precipitation CT PROSPECT 1.9 ENE CoCoRaHS 70.99 CT NORWICH 2.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 70.16 NY STONY POINT 0.7 NW CoCoRaHS 70.06 NY WEST POINT COOP 69.73 CT NORTHFORD 0.8 SW CoCoRaHS 68.28 CT OAKDALE 2.6 WNW CoCoRaHS 67.53 CT GRISWOLD 0.9 N CoCoRaHS 67.47 NY PEEKSKILL 0.4 N CoCoRaHS 67.24 Data for July 1, 2023 through April 8, 2024 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Precipitation CT BRISTOL 2.7 WNW CoCoRaHS 73.82 CT COLUMBIA 2.6 S CoCoRaHS 73.55 CT BRISTOL 2.8 NNE CoCoRaHS 73.08 CT NEWINGTON 1.9 SSW CoCoRaHS 72.88 MA CONWAY 3.4 WSW CoCoRaHS 72.49 CT SALMON BROOK 4.9 WSW CoCoRaHS 71.88 CT SOUTH WINDHAM 1.3 NNE CoCoRaHS 70.86 Data for July 1, 2023 through April 8, 2024 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Precipitation CT BAKERSVILLE COOP 68.48 CT WINSTED 3.8 ESE CoCoRaHS 68.38 CT LITCHFIELD 5.3 ESE CoCoRaHS 67.85 CT WATERTOWN 3.4 N CoCoRaHS 65.97

Yeah, record moisture levels across the world now accompanying the big global temperature spike since last year.

We had a very strong MJO 8 -NAO pattern flip around March 20th. These pattern changes usually last a minimum of 30 days. So we’ll have to see what the models come up with as we approach April 20th. If we still keep seeing these troughs reloading onto the East, then we’ll know the pattern change on March 20th will last even longer than a month. But if models become more optimistic next few weeks by the 20th, then we’ll know it was only a 30 day event.

Yeah, a few showers on Wednesday as the warm front comes north. Then the heavier rains with embedded convection from Thursday into Friday with more 50+ mph gusts. The low pulls away on Saturday with more strong NW winds gusting over 30 mph.

If you like 100° days that much you have to move north or west of the sea breeze front. The stronger high east of New England has keep the South Shore cooler since the 15-16 super El Niño. Data for January 1, 2015 through April 6, 2024 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 100 NJ HARRISON COOP 10 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 8 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 6 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 3 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 2 NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP 2 NJ CRANFORD COOP 1 Data for January 1, 2015 through April 6, 2024 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 100 NJ FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 6 NJ SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 5 PA PHILADELPHIA FRANKLIN INSTITUTE COOP 5 NJ LONG BRANCH-OAKHURST COOP 4 NJ HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 4

The epic deluge in August into September 2011 came after the record heat in June and July.

All it took was a dry July and August in 2022 for 4-6 days reaching 100° away from the sea breeze influence in NJ. NJ probably could have made it 10 days if they were able to get a real drought like back in 2002. Data for July 1, 2022 through August 31, 2022 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 100 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 6 Newark Area ThreadEx 6 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 5 SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 5 CANOE BROOK COOP 4 HARRISON COOP 4