bluewave

It’s a back and forth pattern with the warm ups being more impressive than the cool downs.

Still a very moderate event for most of us as the two weaker lows didn’t consolidate into one stronger event like earlier model runs forecast. A few spots like the GSB had a low end major event. But that is still below the really big nor’easters of the 90s which had extensive higher level major across nearly all our stations. Plus widespread 75+ and 80+ wind gusts with more extensive power outages.

I just said that where the mesoscale banding sets up could be considered luck like in February 2024 in regard to which specific areas got the heaviest totals. But the wider winter pattern in 23-24 being so warm was a function of the pattern. Plus the banding locations are due to the pattern at the time of the storm. Even if the banding was closer to NYC, then it would still have been a well below average snowfall season for them. Since it’s very hard to reach average with just one snowfall event. Unless it’s a high end KU like February 1983 or January 2016. So if the best the winter can produce is a very narrow snow band surrounded by most areas finishing with well below average snow it’s due to specific meteorological and climatic warming factors. We only got one week that winter during February when the record STJ streak was able to have some positive influence. In a way it was a much weaker El Niño backloaded winter event but the warmth that winter was the dominant factor. So as the winters continue to warm it results in the odds being tilted to more below normal snowfall outcomes. This isn’t to say we can’t eventually see a really solid snowfall month going forward like a reflection of January 2022. But we still haven’t seen a month that good especially across the SE NJ sections like ACY northeast to Islip.

There is no luck involved for the general pattern since 18-19. Maybe you can argue luck when mesoscale banding dumps the heaviest totals outside your immediate neighborhood. But the smaller number of opportunities to even get an event that can produce decent banding within a certain distance of where you live is all on the warmer storm tracks and overall patterns. So the odds have been favoring lower snowfall totals. Just like in great patterns you get more opportunities for snowy outcomes as you will eventually find yourself under the best banding since the higher number of opportunities eventually puts your neighborhood under the heaviest mesoscale banding. What happened in your area during 2021-2022? Boston got 54.0” which is around 10” above the long term average.

The big story last winter was diminishing snowfall returns from past La Nina strong +PNA mismatches. The past La Nina’s with strong +PNA’s from December into January all featured at least 35”+ in NYC going back to the 90s. Since this was the first time in 30 years that the Pacific Jet didn’t relax during this pattern, NYC only recorded 12.9”. So we weren’t able to see a repeat of the 38.6” in 20-21….40.9” in 17-18….40.0” in 05-06…35.0” in 00-01….75.6 in 95-96. The only times the Pacific Jet has been able to sufficiently weaken since 18-19, was during DJF 20-21 and January 22. So no luck was involved during those winters. Just solid fundamentals which allowed 20-21 to be the only snowy season in NYC out of the last 7. But there were some issues during December 2020. First, the Greenland block linked up with the Southeast ridge causing the storm to track very close to ACY. This shifted the record 40” snows to go inland near BGM instead of closer to the coastal plain. But thankfully, the late January into early February event took the classic KU track and delivered for much of the region. The January 22 pattern favored eastern areas for the heaviest snows. But it was still a great month for snow and cold due to the classic MJO 8 pattern. January 22 was the last both cold and snowy winter month for many across the region. Going forward we’ll have to see if maybe we can get at least one solid winter month for snow and cold like January 22. That was MJO 8 driven which allowed the Pacific Jet to weaken for a short period. As the Pacific Jet was really dominant in the other two winter months that year.

The storms from DC to Philly in January weren’t that impressive compared to what they used to get in the past. Suppression was still at play even in northern sections of those areas. My area in February was wet but only the weaker storms were cold enough for some snows. The strongest storm had highs in the 50s and heavy rain. We can refer to luck as a one-off or random event. But the continuation of the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks with the much faster Northern stream of Pacific Jet since 18-19 is a dominant weather pattern that doesn’t involve luck.

The one small piece of good news regarding all the tree damage starting with the March 2010 nor’easter is that many of the weaker trees are no longer around. Residents and power companies have been very proactive removing older damaged trees rather than waiting for another storm to blow them down. The landscape in a place like Long Beach is completely different due to them losing all their sycamores with the salt water damage in Sandy.

The only month last winter that suppression was an issue for NYC Metro was January. Those teleconnections could have worked for us prior to 18-19 especially in an El Niño dominant STJ pattern. But the split flow and overpowering Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet instead caused the Southern stream suppression. Both December and February were fairly wet but the storm tracks were too warm to our west for a major snow event.

Another 5 sigma jet max for Alaska. The strong gradient between the record SSTs over the WPAC and Siberian cold is driving this. So this leads to the continuing warmth for North America.

Very moderate event as the system split into two weaker lows instead of one strong consolidated one. Generally 1 to 1.5 so far for my area. While we have had much heavier rains with October nor’easters in the past, I will take it since we need the rains.

Continuation of the warm ups being more impressive than the cold downs across the area.

New JMA has Greenland to Eastern Canada blocking linking up with Southeast ridge in the means. Variable PNA with a ridge off the California Coast and an Aleutian ridge. Active storm track through the Great Lakes and a quiet Southern stream. Several elements related to the dominant pattern in recent years. https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/wmc/products/model/map/7mE/map1/zpcmap.php

Yeah, all-time October warmth up in those areas this last week with highs near 90° close to the Canadian border. Time Series Summary for MALONE, NY - Month of Oct Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2025 88 21 2 2023 85 0 3 2005 81 0 4 2016 80 0 - 2014 80 0 5 2018 79 0 - 2017 79 0 - 2007 79 0 - 1998 79 0

Multiple big snowstorms missed to our south from 2-6-80 to 3-3-80 with 32.6” at Norfolk and only 2.3” at JFK. Data for Norfolk Area, VA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1980-02-06 35 23 11.8 1980-02-07 37 26 0.6 1980-02-08 38 23 0.0 1980-02-09 37 29 2.3 1980-02-10 34 13 4.2 1980-02-11 40 9 0.0 1980-02-12 37 16 0.0 1980-02-13 36 22 0.0 1980-02-14 50 19 0.0 1980-02-15 46 29 0.0 1980-02-16 50 32 0.0 1980-02-17 33 22 0.0 1980-02-18 42 19 0.0 1980-02-19 48 23 0.0 1980-02-20 58 34 0.0 1980-02-21 62 44 0.0 1980-02-22 72 48 0.0 1980-02-23 63 43 0.0 1980-02-24 55 43 0.0 1980-02-25 45 36 0.0 1980-02-26 42 28 T 1980-02-27 48 23 0.0 1980-02-28 46 32 T 1980-02-29 37 25 0.0 1980-03-01 25 18 8.1 1980-03-02 24 20 5.6 1980-03-03 36 20 T Data for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1980-02-06 30 14 0.0 1980-02-07 33 28 T 1980-02-08 41 24 0.0 1980-02-09 32 23 0.0 1980-02-10 35 23 0.0 1980-02-11 37 20 0.0 1980-02-12 37 26 T 1980-02-13 38 26 0.0 1980-02-14 44 25 0.0 1980-02-15 36 29 T 1980-02-16 40 23 1.3 1980-02-17 27 19 0.0 1980-02-18 32 18 0.0 1980-02-19 41 26 0.0 1980-02-20 45 25 0.0 1980-02-21 56 32 0.0 1980-02-22 38 31 1.0 1980-02-23 49 34 0.0 1980-02-24 49 36 0.0 1980-02-25 41 30 0.0 1980-02-26 32 16 0.0 1980-02-27 36 16 T 1980-02-28 30 22 0.0 1980-02-29 22 9 0.0 1980-03-01 24 8 T 1980-03-02 26 12 T 1980-03-03 40 15 0.0

The big winner that winter was Virginia. I can remember flying out of JFK with bare ground and seeing the ground covered with snow in the mid-Atlantic from over 30K feet. We were under a winter storm warming here on a Sunday morning in February and the storm missed to our south. That was common in the old days with really big snowfall misses from the models only 12-24 hrs out in time. Data for October 1, 1979 through April 30, 1980 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. BIG MEADOWS COOP 68.3 MOUNT LAKE BIOL STN COOP 66.1 MONTEREY COOP 56.6 LANGLEY AIR FORCE BASE WBAN 50.0 GOSHEN COOP 48.0 CHARLOTTESVILLE 2W COOP 45.9 SCOTTSVILLE 6SE COOP 45.5 NORFOLK NAS WBAN 45.4 DRIVER 4 NE COOP 44.5 BUCKINGHAM COOP 43.5 SUFFOLK LAKE KILBY COOP 43.0 OCEANA NAS WBAN 42.6 BURKES GARDEN COOP 42.5 DIAMOND SPRINGS COOP 42.0 NORFOLK INTL AP WBAN 41.9 Norfolk Area ThreadEx 41.9

Pretty much the greatest divergence between the max and min departures for the first week of October that you will see. Saranac Lake may be the best example of this big spread. Record temperature rises and falls for early October within a few days. They were at a +9.4° max and a -2.9° min through yesterday. Climatological Data for Saranac Lake Area, NY (ThreadEx) - October 2025 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Sum 617 293 - - 127 0 1.11 Average 68.6 32.6 50.6 3.2 - - - Normal 59.2 35.5 47.4 - 159 0 1.14 2025-10-01 59 26 42.5 -6.4 22 0 0.00 2025-10-02 64 23 43.5 -5.0 21 0 0.00 2025-10-03 72 29 50.5 2.4 14 0 0.00 2025-10-04 77 38 57.5 9.8 7 0 0.00 2025-10-05 82 42 62.0 14.6 3 0 0.00 2025-10-06 80 36 58.0 11.0 7 0 0.00 2025-10-07 75 42 58.5 11.9 6 0 1.08 2025-10-08 59 34 46.5 0.3 18 0 0.03 2025-10-09 49 23 36.0 -9.9 29 0 0.00 2025-10-10 M M M M M M M 2025-10-11 M M M M M M M 2025-10-12 M M M M M M M 2025-10-13 M M M M M M M 2025-10-14 M M M M M M M 2025-10-15 M M M M M M M 2025-10-16 M M M M M M M 2025-10-17 M M M M M M M 2025-10-18 M M M M M M M 2025-10-19 M M M M M M M 2025-10-20 M M M M M M M 2025-10-21 M M M M M M M 2025-10-22 M M M M M M M 2025-10-23 M M M M M M M 2025-10-24 M M M M M M M 2025-10-25 M M M M M M M 2025-10-26 M M M M M M M 2025-10-27 M M M M M M M 2025-10-28 M M M M M M M 2025-10-29 M M M M M M M 2025-10-30 M M M M M M M 2025-10-31 M M M M M M M

Close to a 20° difference between 2m and 85m further to your east this morning.

My first 30s of the season here with a low of 38°.

This has pretty much been our default August and September pattern since 2022. Strong blocking in Canada with a weak low near the Northeast. Impressive to get a similar pattern for 4 years in a row.

10-22-40 was the earliest single digits that I could find for the old Sussex COOP. There used to be a station at Layton in the Delaware water gap not far from the current Walpack station with had their first single digits on 10-28-36. The earliest below 0° reading for Layton and other surrounding sites was 11-26-38. NJ SUSSEX 1 NW COOP 1940-10-22 49 7 28.0 -21.1 Data for October 28, 1936 through October 28, 1936 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ LAYTON 3 NW COOP 9 Data for November 26, 1938 through November 26, 1938 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. RUNYON COOP -7 CANOE BROOK COOP -5 LAYTON 3 NW COOP -5 CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP -1 INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP 0 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 0 BELVIDERE COOP 1 Belvidere Area ThreadEx 1 FLEMINGTON 5 NNW COOP 2 PEMBERTON COOP 4 LONG VALLEY COOP 4 SOMERVILLE 4 NW COOP 5

Yeah, one of the only times the October minimums were lower than December for many locations. It was a great idea to put a weather station in that location to see how much lower the readings can be in the valley. The last time NJ had single digits during October was in 1940 and 1936. Monthly Data for October 1940 for New Jersey Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. SUSSEX 1 NW COOP 7 CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 11 RUNYON COOP 12 LAYTON 3 NW COOP 14 CANOE BROOK COOP 15 Monthly Data for October 1936 for New Jersey Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. LAYTON 3 NW COOP 9 CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 10

It’s ironic that the last time Walpack dropped under 20° in October we got the historic +13 December in 2015 and they stayed above 20°. ▼ Walpack NJ 2015-10-18 Mesonet 47 18 ▼ Walpack NJ 2015-10-19 Mesonet 54 19 ▼ Walpack NJ 2015-12-06 Mesonet 49 21 ▼ Walpack NJ 2015-12-24 Mesonet 70 40 Data for October 19, 2015 through October 19, 2015 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. SUSSEX AIRPORT WBAN 20 SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 22 INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP 23 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 23 SUSSEX 1 NW COOP 23 AEROFLEX-ANDOVER AIRPORT WBAN 23 FLEMINGTON 5 NNW COOP 24 CRANFORD COOP 24 BELVIDERE BRIDGE COOP 24 Belvidere Area ThreadEx 24 CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 25 ATSION COOP 25 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 26 ESTELL MANOR COOP 26 MILLVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT WBAN 27 TRENTON-MERCER AIRPORT WBAN 27 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 27 WERTSVILLE 4 NE COOP 27 CANOE BROOK COOP 27 CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 27 TOCKS ISLAND COOP 27 SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 27 Trenton Area ThreadEx 27 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 27 ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP WBAN 28 HAMMONTON 1 NE COOP 28 TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 28 PHILADELPHIA/MT. HOLLY WFO COOP 28 Atlantic City Area ThreadEx 28 TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 28 PHILLIPSBURG-EASTON BRIDGE COOP 29 SOMERDALE 4 SW COOP 29 EB FORSYTHE NEW JERSEY RAWS 29 WRIGHTSTOWN COOP 29 SEABROOK FARMS COOP 30 LONG BRANCH-OAKHURST COOP 30 BOONTON 1 SE COOP 30 PENNSAUKEN 1N COOP 30 MANASQUAN 1 NW COOP 30 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 31

The wildest stat is that Baltimore had 77.0” during just a few months and a total of 69.6” over the last 7 seasons.

This storm will pull the trough into the East once it passes. So we have probably seen our last 80° day of the season. But all the cold is locked up in Siberia. So the trough will capture mild Pacific air. While it will be cooler than we have been experiencing recently, the airmass isn’t that cold for October. So the cooler days will probably be a little below average but nothing too cold for mid-October. But much more comfortable and fall-like than the record heat of the last few weeks.