bluewave

Why do you think I am talking about your forecasts? If I had a question for you then I would ask you directly. The negative modes of those indices weren’t strong enough last winter to prevent the storm tracks on the wettest .20+ precipitation days from Philly to Boston from cutting through the Eastern Great Lakes. Your perception of those modes were from a colder era when they were more effective at driving colder storm tracks to our south when the Pacific Jet was weaker. For the general pattern since 18-19 to change we would need to see the Pacific Jet relax and stop producing the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks. Hard to believe our last effective wide scale relaxation of this pattern was in January 2022 with the great MJO 8 pattern.

It’s certainly underperforming model forecasts as this dry pattern since last fall has been very persistent.

This was the 7th latest 70° minimum at Islip. 269 SXUS71 KOKX 250637 RERISP RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 234 AM EDT THU SEP 25 2025 ...RECORD DAILY HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE SET AT ISLIP NY... THE LOW TEMPERATURE WAS ONLY 70 DEGREES WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 24 AT ISLIP MACARTHUR AIRPORT. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD HIGH MINIMUM OF 69 DEGREES, SET IN 1970. RECORDS FOR THE ISLIP NY AREA GO BACK TO 1963. ALL CLIMATE DATA ARE CONSIDERED PRELIMINARY UNTIL REVIEWED BY THE NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION (NCEI). First/Last Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1990 06-23 (1990) 70 10-13 (1990) 70 111 2018 06-19 (2018) 70 10-11 (2018) 70 113 2017 06-23 (2017) 71 10-09 (2017) 71 107 2005 06-14 (2005) 70 10-08 (2005) 72 115 2010 06-24 (2010) 73 09-30 (2010) 70 97 1970 07-10 (1970) 70 09-25 (1970) 72 76 2019 06-29 (2019) 73 09-24(2025) 70 85

We maintained the -EPO and -WPO throughout the 13-14 and 14-15 seasons. The Pacific Jet was much weaker so frequent shortwaves weren’t constantly lowering heights in the region. Notice how much lower the -EPO and -WPO domain 500mb heights were in 2025 than 2014 with the much stronger Pacific Jet. Also look how the subtraction of 2025 from 2014 resembled 2024. Much stronger ridge last winter near Hudson Bay than 2014. This is exactly where the ridge was during 2024.

I would spend half the time looking out of the windows of Lindell School which was right on the bay and under the flight landing path to JFK near the edge of Lawrence Marsh. We would also have the really big barges going by since that was such a busy waterway. I thought it was the coolest thing when the bay was nearly frozen across during all the cold winters growing up back in Long Beach.

I actually got used to being right under the flight path for planes landing at JFK when I was back in Long Beach. But it was hard to ignore the Concorde which flew over my house every morning shortly after 9am coming into JFK. But kids think that kind of stuff if pretty cool anyway. I live near a much smaller airport now and the flight path doesn’t go directly over my house. But it’s really cool walking around the airport and seeing all the takeoffs and landings. There is a dirt lot where the locals park to watch all the flights landing and taking off. I still enjoy the low flyovers when walking on the sidewalk which crosses directly under the planes just off the end of the runway. I have noticed that the Boeing 737 is a much louder jet than the Airbus A 220. The airbus has more of a higher pitched whine and the Boeing is more of a deep roar. Had friends in the aviation business that would get to ride the jump seats on flights.

You are a very funny guy and appreciate the levity. But it’s been difficult to sustain any wall to wall DJF -EPO -WPO patterns since 2018-2019. It was much easier to lock in the -EPOs and -WPOs from December to March in 2013 to 2015 when the WPAC was much colder and the jet stream weaker. This allowed the NEPAC blocking to extend through the season since the weaker jet wasn’t constantly lowering heights with repeated shortwaves eroding the ridge from the west. As long as we have the enormous WPAC warm pool above and below the surface, the gradient between Siberia and the WPAC will drive these faster jet streams and frequent extensions. So what we are beginning to see now with the big EPO reversal this month is just a microcosm of the larger pattern since 2018-2019. The EPO reversal last year from late November into December was much more impressive. It’s actually been easier to sustain the NEPAC blocking during the summers since 2018 than during the winters. My guess is that this is due to the gradient between Siberia and the WPAC being much weaker during the summer. November 2024 into December 2024 -EPO couldn’t lock in and the daily +EPO max in late December was more impressive than the -EPO min in late November. Major Jet max and extension sent multiple shortwaves into the EPO domain lowering heights. 2024 11 20 -168.33 2024 11 21 -243.29 2024 11 22 -258.96 2024 11 23 -229.99 2024 11 24 -222.98 2024 11 25 -212.57 2024 11 26 -174.73 2024 11 27 -153.02 2024 11 28 -130.16 2024 11 29 -105.10 2024 11 30 -81.63 2024 12 01 -43.78 2024 12 02 -14.50 2024 12 03 -35.60 2024 12 04 -34.12 2024 12 05 -14.08 2024 12 06 28.23 2024 12 07 49.16 2024 12 08 -27.22 2024 12 09 -137.55 2024 12 10 -149.44 2024 12 11 -49.79 2024 12 12 35.08 2024 12 13 64.11 2024 12 14 70.96 2024 12 15 -21.55 2024 12 16 -72.62 2024 12 17 -59.81 2024 12 18 -48.59 2024 12 19 -98.46 2024 12 20 -88.76 2024 12 21 -9.80 2024 12 22 99.09 2024 12 23 112.77 2024 12 24 186.45 2024 12 25 280.91 2024 12 26 310.29 2024 12 27 225.40 2024 12 28 135.47 2024 12 29 75.67 2024 12 30 11.94

I think the record cold in Siberia creating the tight gradient between the record SSTs south of the Aleutians is helping this very strong shift to +EPO. This is following a similar pattern of recent years. Currently the Aleutians are experienceing a 4 sigma jet max helping to dig the +EPO trough and pump the warm ridge over North America. So as we have seen in recent years it tough to maintain a -EPO indefinitely. This EPO reversal was among the strongest we have seen from September into October. 4 sigma jet max near Aleutians Strong EPO reversal https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/epo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt 025 09 01 -195.59 2025 09 02 -217.86 2025 09 03 -189.23 2025 09 04 -134.91 2025 09 05 -108.24 2025 09 06 -90.21 2025 09 07 -71.66 2025 09 08 -37.71 2025 09 09 3.25 2025 09 10 39.61 2025 09 11 71.15 2025 09 12 90.96 2025 09 13 97.24 2025 09 14 92.25 2025 09 15 53.53 2025 09 16 -6.59 2025 09 17 -20.75 2025 09 18 -29.60 2025 09 19 33.92 2025 09 20 133.17 2025 09 21 158.66

This looks like our best rainfall potential in a while. Good signal from the CAMs for a widespread 1.5”+ with pockets of 3”+ possible. Just had brief heavy downpour here.

Yeah, looks like all the real cold is limited to Siberia.

Very challenging seasonal forecast that winter for anyone that was making an attempt in the early days of forecasting. Pretty much unprecedented up until time for parts of the CONUS to have a -15 December followed by a +15 January in other spots. Still the coldest December at 25.9° that I have ever experienced which was colder than all of our Januaries since 2004.

Very rare occurrence this August and September. Several stations are on track for a colder August monthly minimum temperature than in September. First time at Allentown since 1982. Looks like a warmer pattern to close out the month. Monthly Lowest Min Temperature for Trenton Area, NJ (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2025 49 50 49 2024 52 45 45 2023 57 50 50 2022 58 41 41 2021 58 49 49 2020 58 40 40 Monthly Lowest Min Temperature for PHILADELPHIA/MT. HOLLY WFO, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2025 48 49 48 2024 51 44 44 2023 54 49 49 2022 57 44 44 2021 59 49 49 2020 58 40 40 Monthly Lowest Min Temperature for SOMERSET AIRPORT, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2025 44 46 44 2024 48 40 40 2023 52 45 45 2022 53 37 37 2021 53 45 45 2020 54 34 34 Monthly Lowest Min Temperature for Allentown Area, PA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1986 41 38 38 1934 41 43 41 1927 42 40 40 1982 43 47 43 1976 43 38 38 1944 43 38 38 1940 43 34 34 2025 45 47 45

I mostly remember how cold it was waiting for the school bus every morning during those late 70s winters.

Still the record for number of days with lows at or below 0° at Islip. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Dec through Feb Days with low temperature at or below 0° Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1978-1979 6 0 2 1964-1965 4 0 3 1967-1968 3 0 - 1966-1967 3 0 4 1987-1988 2 0 - 1983-1984 2 0 - 1981-1982 2 0 - 1980-1981 2 0 5 2015-2016 1 0 - 2013-2014 1 0 - 1984-1985 1 0 - 1976-1977 1 0 - 1975-1976 1 0 - 1973-1974 1 0 - 1969-1970 1 0 - 1963-1964 1 2 Data for December 1, 1978 through February 28, 1979 Days with low temperature at of below 0° Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY WALDEN 1 ESE COOP 16 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 11 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 11 NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W COOP 11 NY CARMEL COOP 10 CT NORWALK GAS PLANT COOP 9 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 9 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 8 NJ CRANFORD COOP 8 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 8 NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 8 NY SUFFERN COOP 8 CT MIDDLETOWN 4 W COOP 8 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 8 NJ JERSEY CITY COOP 7 NY MIDDLETOWN 2 NW COOP 7 CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 7 CT DANBURY COOP 7 NY SCARSDALE COOP 7 CT MOUNT CARMEL COOP 7 CT GROTON COOP 7 NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 6 NY WEST POINT COOP 6 NY PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP 6 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 6 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 5 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 5 NY VANDERBILT MUSEUM COOP 5 CT NEW HAVEN COOP 5 NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP 5 Data for December 1, 1978 through February 28, 1979 Days with low temperature at or below 0° Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. PA BELTZVILLE DAM COOP 16 PA TOBYHANNA POCONO MOUNTAIN ARPT WBAN 14 NJ LONG VALLEY COOP 13 NJ NEWTON COOP 13 NJ SUSSEX 1 NW COOP 13 PA COATESVILLE 1 SW COOP 10 NJ FLEMINGTON 5 NNW COOP 10 PA READING 4 NNW COOP 10 NJ HIGH POINT PARK COOP 10 NJ FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 9 NJ SOMERVILLE 4 NW COOP 9 NJ MORRIS PLAINS 1 W COOP 9 PA EAST STROUDSBURG COOP 9 NJ BELVIDERE COOP 9

Areas closer to Southern NJ did. Data for February 18, 1979 through February 19, 1979 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. TUCKERTON 2 NE COOP 21.0 ESTELL MANOR COOP 19.4 CAPE MAY 2 NW COOP 18.2 FLEMINGTON 5 NNW COOP 18.0 RAHWAY COOP 18.0 ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP WBAN 17.1 Atlantic City Area ThreadEx 17.1 WOODSTOWN PITTSGROV 4E COOP 17.0 PLAINFIELD COOP 17.0 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 16.6 Newark Area ThreadEx 16.6 AUDUBON COOP 14.0 BELVIDERE COOP 14.0 Belvidere Area ThreadEx 14.0 MORRIS PLAINS 1 W COOP 12.5 MILLVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT WBAN 12.0 PEMBERTON COOP 12.0 MOORESTOWN 4 E COOP 12.0 LAMBERTVILLE COOP 12.0 INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP 11.6 CRANFORD COOP 11.0 CANOE BROOK COOP 11.0 MIDLAND PARK COOP 11.0 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 10.5 SANDY HOOK COOP 10.0

Still the coldest 14 day period at Islip. Minimum 14-Day Mean Avg Temperature for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Period of record: 1963-09-05 to 2025-09-21 1 11.4 1979-02-06 through 1979-02-19 0 2 11.5 1979-02-07 through 1979-02-20 0 3 11.9 1979-02-05 through 1979-02-18 0 4 12.5 1979-02-08 through 1979-02-21 0 5 13.4 1979-02-04 through 1979-02-17 0 6 13.8 1979-02-09 through 1979-02-22 0 7 14.6 1967-12-31 through 1968-01-13 0 8 14.8 1967-12-30 through 1968-01-12 0 9 15.0 1979-02-03 through 1979-02-16 0 10 15.4 1979-02-10 through 1979-02-23 0 11 15.5 1968-01-01 through 1968-01-14 0 12 15.9 1979-02-02 through 1979-02-15 0 13 16.0 1967-12-29 through 1968-01-11 0 14 16.3 1968-01-02 through 1968-01-15 0 15 16.3 1968-01-04 through 1968-01-17 0 16 16.5 1979-02-01 through 1979-02-14 0 - 16.5 1968-01-05 through 1968-01-18 0 17 16.8 1968-01-03 through 1968-01-16 0 18 17.2 1977-01-11 through 1977-01-24 0 19 17.4 2017-12-26 through 2018-01-08 0 20 17.4 1981-01-01 through 1981-01-14 0 21 17.5 1981-01-03 through 1981-01-16 0 - 17.5 1981-01-02 through 1981-01-15 0 22 17.7 1980-12-31 through 1981-01-13 0 - 17.7 1967-12-28 through 1968-01-10 0 1979-02-06 25 13 19.0 -12.9 46 0 0.00 0.0 0 1979-02-07 22 13 17.5 -14.5 47 0 0.65 6.5 0 1979-02-08 30 17 23.5 -8.6 41 0 0.03 0.3 7 1979-02-09 19 8 13.5 -18.7 51 0 0.00 0.0 6 1979-02-10 15 -1 7.0 -25.4 58 0 0.00 0.0 5 1979-02-11 11 -2 4.5 -28.0 60 0 0.00 0.0 4 1979-02-12 15 -6 4.5 -28.2 60 0 0.09 0.9 2 1979-02-13 12 5 8.5 -24.3 56 0 T T 3 1979-02-14 13 -1 6.0 -27.0 59 0 0.00 0.0 3 1979-02-15 20 9 14.5 -18.6 50 0 T T 2 1979-02-16 18 8 13.0 -20.3 52 0 0.02 0.2 1 1979-02-17 10 0 5.0 -28.5 60 0 0.00 0.0 1 1979-02-18 14 -2 6.0 -27.7 59 0 0.00 0.0 1 1979-02-19 24 10 17.0 -16.9 48 0 0.88 8.8 2

Especially in places like the Adirondacks. I remember wondering as a kid how Old Forge made it down to -52° in February 1979. The Arctic high settled right over that region for perfect radiational cooling. Data for February 18, 1979 through February 18, 1979 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. OLD FORGE COOP -52 STILLWATER RESERVOIR COOP -44 WANAKENA RNGR SCHOOL COOP -41 HINCKLEY 2 SW COOP -40

The shallow nature is what makes it such an interesting phenomenon. I radiate much better here by a wooded area just north of the sound. You really notice the temperature falling pretty quickly when the sun goes down. My old area back on the South Shore didn't radiate very well. So I had to rely more on strong CAA and the winds staying strong for my colder mornings near the ocean and bays.

It’s pretty wild how shallow those radiational cooling inversions are. The low was only 57° at 50 meters up just above the treetops. That’s what the urban areas experienced this morning due to UHI around NYC.

LGA remains the cool spot as we get a warmer pattern to close out the month. LGA….-1.8 BDR….-1.4 NYC….-1.1 JFK…..-1.1 HPN….-0.3 EWR…..0.0 SMQ….+0.1 ISP……+0.2 FWN…+0.6 HVN….+1.0

We’ll see if a piece of the over the top warm up in Canada near the end of September can build down into the Northeast in October.

This summer was much drier in New England than 2010 was leading to the record low streamflows that some areas are experiencing.

Mid to perhaps upper 80s Tuesday as the models are slowing the front down. New run Old run

The recent summer pattern across the U.S. is a reversal of the Dust Bowl. The record heat has been located in the West and East with cooler and wetter in the middle. This is the opposite of the Dust Bowl with record heat and drought focused in the middle. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/36/20/JCLI-D-22-0716.1.xml Abstract A cooling trend in summer (May–August) daytime temperatures since the mid-twentieth century over the central United States contrasts with strong warming of the western and eastern United States. Prior studies based on data through 1999 suggested that this so-called warming hole arose mainly from internal climate variability and thus would likely disappear. Yet it has prevailed for two more decades, despite accelerating global warming, compelling reexamination of causes that in addition to natural variability could include anthropogenic aerosol–induced cooling, hydrologic cycle intensification by greenhouse gas increases, and land use change impacts. Here we present evidence for the critical importance of hydrologic cycle change resulting from ocean–atmosphere drivers. Observational analysis reveals that the warming hole’s persistence is consistent with unusually high summertime rainfall over the region during the first decades of the twenty-first century. Comparative analysis of large ensembles from four different climate models demonstrates that rainfall trends since the mid-twentieth century as large as observed can arise (although with low probability) via internal atmospheric variability alone, which induce warming-hole-like patterns over the central United States. In addition, atmosphere-only model experiments reveal that observed sea surface temperature changes since the mid-twentieth century have also favored central U.S cool/wet conditions during the early twenty-first century. We argue that this latter effect is symptomatic of external radiative forcing influences, which, via constraints on ocean warming patterns, have likewise contributed to persistence of the U.S. warming hole in roughly equal proportion to contributions by internal variability. These results have important ramifications for attribution of extreme events and predicting risks of record-breaking heat waves in the region.

Still looks pretty warm to me since the Atlantic is currently the 5th warmest on record for the date. We also have to remember that this is the warmest 1991-2020 climo. So the actual historical ranking is pretty high. The cold pool west of Ireland is from the locally stronger winds there with the deep low pressure.