bluewave

Yeah, 2nd warmest summer on record so far for Long Island with numerous top 10s since 2010. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Warmest June 1st- July 27th Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2010-07-27 77.8 0 2 2025-07-27 75.9 0 3 2011-07-27 75.8 0 4 2024-07-27 75.6 0 5 2008-07-27 75.2 0 - 1948-07-27 75.2 46 6 2020-07-27 75.1 0 7 2016-07-27 75.0 0 - 2013-07-27 75.0 0 - 1994-07-27 75.0 0 8 1983-07-27 74.9 0 9 2012-07-27 74.7 0 - 1949-07-27 74.7 0 10 1999-07-27 74.6 0 - 1991-07-27 74.6 0 - 1952-07-27 74.6 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Warmest June 1st-July 27th Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2010-07-27 75.0 0 - 1999-07-27 75.0 0 2 2025-07-27 74.9 0 3 2024-07-27 74.3 0 4 2013-07-27 74.1 0 - 1994-07-27 74.1 0 5 2020-07-27 73.8 0 6 2011-07-27 73.7 0 7 2008-07-27 73.6 0 8 2019-07-27 73.5 0 9 1966-07-27 73.0 0 10 2014-07-27 72.9 0 - 1991-07-27 72.9 0

The record breaking smoke back in June 2023 dropped the temperature by 5.4°F. https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-025-02214-3

Well the ridge axis has been further west than recent years. Recent summers it has been east of New England with more onshore flow. So this is why places like JFK have seen more 100° days with the increased westerly flow.

None of the models had 100° today anyway. The heat was always expected to peak Tuesday into Wednesday. Smoke only becomes an issue for temperatures when it’s thick enough. Even then the effect would only be a degree or two unless we have June 2023 levels which was historic due to the magnitude and closeness of the wildfires in Canada. The current wildfires are further away in Canada so it hasn’t been as thick as 2023. But a few days ago the low level smoke was thick enough to drop the air quality.

Last winter the underestimation of the Southeast Ridge or Western Atlantic ridge occurred with the storm track. So the heaviest snows kept shifting north right up until storm time with a stronger ridge than forecast. But in previous winters it has been both storm track and the overall average 500 mb pattern that the models regularly underestimate.

These smoke forecasts from the models vary quite a bit from run to run. So it’s much more of a trial and error process. Always have to check in the mornings to see how close to reality the HRRR and other models are doing.

Another longer range modeling underestimation of the Southeast Ridge which has been a frequent occurrence last decade.

Very strong La Niña background state continuing with the record July heat and Southeast Ridge. So a continuation of these record subtropical ridges. The models have frequently been underestimating the heat and ridging in the East.

I think that the 09-10 and 10-11 winters were so phenomenal, that we just couldn’t sustain that level of historic snowfall production for 3 seasons in a row.

I can see some -AO and -NAO overlap also. Like last 24-25 winter we had the -5 -AO drop in mid-February with the record snows in Montreal and Toronto. Similar strong drops in 20-21 and especially March 2018. The We all know about 2010 and the -AO -NAO intervals in 05-06 and of course 95-96. But again not sure about a one to one casual relationship as these features could be markers for another underling process. Perhaps related to the underlying forcing and Rossby wave breaking.

I was able to find one relationship between La Ninas and ACE going back to 1950. Any Atlantic hurricane seasons with 160 ACE or higher like last year tended to have a +PNA December. Now I am not sure if there is any type of causal relationship involved. Could just be a marker. What I mean by this is that the high ACE and +PNA December are part of the same underlying process. It also worked out that the October MJO indicator also was reliable in 2017, 2020, and 2024. So the MJO is also part of the same underlying process at least in more recent years. Those years featured a MJO 5 above +2.70 in October before the December strong +PNA La Ninas mismatch. Atlantic hurricane season ACE above 160 and December +PNA during La Ninas 2005….245 ACE…..+1.38 …..December PNA 1995……227………….+0.92 2017……224…………..+0.89…..October MJO 5….+3.35 1950……211……………+0.02 1998……181……………-0.09 2020…..180…………..+1.58…..October MJO 5…..+2.81 1999……176………….+0.21 2010…..165…………..-1.78….+1.25 +PNA delayed until January 2024…..161………….+1.70….October MJO 5…….+2.76

JFK has a shot at their first 80° July since 2010. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2010 80.7 0 2 2011 79.8 0 3 2013 79.5 0 4 2025 79.3 6 - 2022 79.3 0 - 2020 79.3 0 5 2019 78.8 0 6 1999 78.7 0 - 1993 78.7 0 7 2016 78.6 0 - 1983 78.6 0 - 1949 78.6 0 8 2015 78.4 0 - 2012 78.4 0 9 1994 78.1 0 10 1955 78.0 0 11 2024 77.8 0 - 2023 77.8 0 - 2002 77.8 0 12 1995 77.7 0 13 1952 77.6 0 14 2008 77.3 0 - 1981 77.3 0 15 1971 77.2 0

Stronger ridge now so the heatwave has been extended to Wednesday.

It’s the first time this summer that the GFS is running warmer than the Euro. The GFS has 100° heat from Monday to Wednesday. But the Euro only gets to 100° on Wednesday.

Unfortunately, the upcoming heatwave looks like another where the urban corridor will be 90° at 11pm after getting near 100° during the day.

Yeah, easily the worst air quality of July so far here just east of HVN. Jul 26, 11:20 am 84 61 45 84 NE 8 4.00 Haze

Many areas in the East have also seen a steady increase in 90° days over the years. In the old days it was rare for areas to reach 40 days of 90°. Now it’s occurring much more frequently.

Yeah, we were discussing this prospect a few weeks ago when this new paper was released. The authors have been interviewed about their findings since then. The shift to persistent 500mb ridging and SST warming across the mid-latitude Pacific may be an inherent response to a warming world which the research indicated occurred in previous warming eras for the earth. If we continue to see this block of warming and 500mb ridging continuing into the 2030s, then the new model simulation that was run could be onto something. Time will tell. https://insideclimatenews.org/news/18072025/southwestern-drought-likely-to-continue-through-2100/ But in this case, the phenomenon can last far longer than the usual 30-year cycle of the PDO. But if, as we hypothesize, this is a forced change in the sea surface temperatures in the North Pacific, this will be sustained into the future, and we need to start looking at this as a shift, instead of just the result of bad luck.” Todd was able analyze drought conditions during the mid-Holocene period 6,000 years ago, a period in Earth’s history when the Northern Pacific warmed and the Southwestern U.S. experienced hundreds of years of drought. That led to a warming of the North Pacific that was similar to the PDO that drives drought in the Southwest, but in this case, the drying lasted for centuries. “As soon as we saw that, you know, we started thinking about what’s happening today,” Todd said. Using an ensemble of historical and future climate models forecasting climate and precipitation patterns until 2100, they found the PDO-like negative phase continues through this century. But unlike the mid-Holocene period’s warming, which was brought on by vegetation change, today’s is driven by greenhouse gas emissions. Certain models revealed that the change in the ocean pattern was less about vegetation absorbing solar radiation, Todd said, and more about warming in general. In many ways, Richter said, what people are seeing on the ground is outpacing science.

This was the 5th 90° day of the season at Newark moving into 4th place on the all-time list. There were 4 NYC micronet stations which reached 100° also. So among the warmest stretches that our area has seen from late June into late July. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Highest number of 100° days Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1993 9 0 2 1949 8 0 3 2022 6 0 - 1953 6 0 4 2025 5 159 - 1988 5 0 - 1966 5 0 5 2011 4 0 - 2010 4 0 - 1955 4 0 - 1944 4 0 6 2012 3 0 - 2006 3 0 - 2005 3 0 - 2001 3 0 - 1999 3 0 - 1911 3 1 7 2024 2 0 - 2021 2 0 - 2013 2 0 - 2002 2 0 - 1997 2 0 - 1994 2 0 - 1991 2 0 - 1980 2 0 - 1977 2 0 - 1954 2 0 - 1948 2 0 - 1943 2 0 - 1936 2 0 - 1919 2 40 - 1901 2 4 - 1898 2 7 8 1995 1 0 - 1986 1 0 - 1982 1 0 - 1973 1 0 - 1963 1 0 - 1959 1 0 - 1957 1 0 - 1952 1 0 - 1937 1 0 - 1934 1 0 - 1933 1 0 - 1923 1 0 - 1918 1 38 - 1917 1 72 - 1913 1 6 - 1900 1 9 - 1881 1 18 13th St./16th / Alphabet City 99 78 85 108 78 80 41 0.09 14 1:50pm 6 2:35pm 21.3 160 Ave. / Howard Beach 95 75 83 110 75 85 54 0.08 28th St. / Chelsea 99 77 85 108 77 78 41 0.05 18 4:10pm 7 4:10pm 19.1 Astoria 100 78 86 109 78 74 40 0.00 16 3:45pm 7 3:45pm 19.5 Bensonhurst / Mapleton 97* 76* 82* 113* 76* 87* 49* 0.06 21.6 Bronx Mesonet 96 77 84 105 77 75 42 0.00 22 4:05pm 13 4:05pm 21.1 Brooklyn Mesonet 95 75 82 104 75 79 46 0.02 54 4:05pm 31 4:10pm 23.1 Brownsville 101 77 85 110 77 75 39 0.05 Corona 101 78 86 112 78 75 40 0.00 E 40th St. / Murray Hill 98 78 85 107 78 74 43 0.04 East River at Alphabet City Fresh Kills 99 75 82 110 75 96 43 0.44 48 4:00pm 27 4:00pm 20.8 Glendale / Maspeth 99 77 85 109 77 76 42 0.00 Gold Street / Navy Yard 98 76 84 107 76 80 43 0.04 26 3:55pm 14 3:55pm 22.8 Lefferts / South Ozone Park 94 76 84 107 76 77 49 0.00 Manhattan Mesonet 94 76 83 101 76 76 45 0.00 39 3:50pm 22 3:50pm 22.5 Newtown / Long Island City 97 78 85 106 78 75 43 0.00 22 3:50pm 10 3:50pm 20.9 Queens Mesonet 96 76 84 104 76 83 45 0.06 29 3:55pm 15 3:40pm 21.7 Queensbridge / Dutch Kills 99 78 86 110 78 74 41 0.01 19.0 Staten Island Mesonet 96 74 81 105 74 96 45 0.40 48 3:50pm 27 3:55pm 20.2 TLC Center 96 77 84 104 77 77 44 0.00 24 4:05pm 12 3:55pm 21.8 Tremont / Van Nest 102 78 87 112 78 73 37 0.00 22 4:10pm 10

2010 was a very rare year with some spots getting 50 inches of snow and 50 days reaching 90°.

JFK will probably finish just behind 2010 for the highest average maximum temperature from 6-22 to 7-31. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2010-07-31 89.2 0 2 2025-07-31 86.8 7 3 2011-07-31 86.7 0 4 2019-07-31 86.5 0 - 1963-07-31 86.5 0 5 2020-07-31 86.1 0 - 2002-07-31 86.1 0 - 1966-07-31 86.1 0 - 1949-07-31 86.1 0

The dewpoints still look elevated Monday into Tuesday before dropping a bit Wednesday. But not looking like a repeat of the nearly 100/80 experienced back in late June. It’s rare for us to ever really experience dry heat here like they get out West.

The one consolation will be the 850s won’t be as high. So we probably max out 97° to 100° instead of the 102°-105° in late June. Plus it looks like the dew points will be lower than late June and today.

Yeah, unfortunately more major 95°-100° heat next week as the long range models underestimated the ridge again. New run Old run

Nice drop from 93° to 84° here with the thunderstorm.