bluewave

My old neighbor used to be an airline manager back in the days before security was as tight as it is today. He was lying on the beach in curaçao and a cute little kitten came up to him on the beach. It wouldn’t leave him so he brought it back with him on the plane and it lived with him in Long Beach.

South Florida weather here on the CT Shoreline but at least the sun angle is a bit lower. New Haven MOSUNNY 91 78 65 S10G16 30.01F HX 106 FT LAUD EXEC PTSUNNY 91 78 65 SE16 30.05F HX 106

Yeah, this is the warmest summer on record so far for low temperatures in many stations in the East. Record dew points and plenty of clouds keeping the minimums up. So the increased clouds and rain during the day has resulted in lower rankings for high temperatures.

Yeah, this is why we have been observing such a steep increase in extreme rainfall and flooding in recent years. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10083550/#:~:text=Meteorologists use the Clausius–Clapeyron,a 1 °C rise. The equation shows how warmer air can hold more moisture, which is crucial to forecast the increased strength of storms and the higher intensity of rainfall. “A key point about this equation is that it has an exponential in there,” says Peter Stott, a climate scientist at the UK Met Office. “An exponential curve, of course, goes up more steeply the further up you get. So quite quickly as temperature increases, you get into large numbers for additional rainfall.” So, the equation points at a wetter future. But as researchers are learning, that’s only the beginning. Future storms may produce even more rain than the venerable equation predicts.

Very impressive for the NW corner of NJ to be getting close to 80° dew points. Has been happening quite a bit in recent years. New all-time highs for FWN. Action Park was my favorite place to go during the summers back in the 1980s. The dew points were much more comfortable in Sussex County back in those days.

The bottom line is that the heat stress on the body has been increasing no matter what index or scale you are using when the dew points and temperatures keep rising.

The heat index is fine for general purposes of how it actually feels out since it’s what the air temperature combined the dew point feels like. But the issue is that it’s based on the conditions in the shade. The WBGT takes into account what it feels like in the direct sunlight. So the threshold temperature for the WBGT action to reduce activities is much lower closer to 90° instead of the 100°+ for heat index. Winds and clouds are also taken into account with WBGT. So in reality it may be dangerous for certain outdoor activities at lower temperatures than what the heat index says in the sun on a clear day. So even if there isn’t an official heat advisory, the WBGT could recommend reduced outdoor activities.

SMQ is beating EWR for highest average heat index this July so far. The average daily high heat index is 95° so far at SMQ. This is currently a new July record just a slight bit above last year. We need to see the rest of the month to know if it will beat the July record last year. Newark is currently running at a 93° average heat index. But the dew point pooling over interior NJ has been very impressive. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=76&network=NJ_ASOS&station=EWR&season=jul&varname=feel&agg=max&year=1893&w=bar&hours=0-23&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

Great graphic of how quickly the rainfall totals declined the further east across the region you were.

Continuing to look like the late June heatwave will be the strongest of the summer especially east of NYC. Some model runs have mid 90s to around 100° next week as another 594 DM ridge builds to our west. But there will be a strong onshore flow so the best heat will probably be over NJ. There have only been 9 years with the highest summer temperature occurring in June or making a tie with later in the season. Very impressive that this season is on track to be the 4th year since 2017. The warmest summer temperature usually happens later on in the season. June Monthly Highest Max Summer Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2025 103 100 M M 103 2021 103 97 99 91 103 2011 102 108 98 88 108 1994 102 99 95 92 102 1993 102 105 100 100 105 1952 102 98 92 94 102 1943 102 95 97 93 102 1988 101 101 99 86 101 1966 101 105 95 91 105 2024 100 99 100 87 100 1959 100 93 96 93 100 1953 100 99 102 105 105 1934 100 98 90 85 100 2017 99 98 93 92 99

The summer heat warms the SSTs in the NY Bight. 80°ocean temperatures during the 2020s summers have been fairly common around the peak summer SSTs. But what is different this year is the reversal in departures from the winter. Due to the record westerly flow causing upwelling, the SSTs departures to our east were the coldest in over a decade during the winter. All the years over the last decade have carried warm winter departures into the summer. This was the first reversal from close to winter 2011 departures jumping into 2020s summer departures. I guess we are lucky that we didn’t see a Mediterranean or Japan style marine heatwave around +10°. That would have given us our first mid 80s ocean temperatures at the beaches.

This has been one of the more impressive SST rebounds that we have seen from the spring into the summer. There was a significant cold pool to our east from the winter into the spring due to the record westerly flow leading to upwelling. This pattern has reversed with the persistent onshore flow and warmth this summer. The bouy east of Barnegat, NJ has a 81° water temperature today. https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44091 Water Temperature (WTMP): 81.0 °F

Flooding reports running 134% more than average this year so far. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10083550/#:~:text=Meterologists use the Clausius–Clapeyron,a 1 °C rise. The equation shows how warmer air can hold more moisture, which is crucial to forecast the increased strength of storms and the higher intensity of rainfall. “A key point about this equation is that it has an exponential in there,” says Peter Stott, a climate scientist at the UK Met Office. “An exponential curve, of course, goes up more steeply the further up you get. So quite quickly as temperature increases, you get into large numbers for additional rainfall.” So, the equation points at a wetter future. But as researchers are learning, that’s only the beginning. Future storms may produce even more rain than the venerable equation

80° SSTs now just east of NJ. 15 E Barnegat Li 1630 78 80

Impressive to see the dew points approaching 80° up on Cape Cod. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KPVC&hours=72 Jul 15, 12:05 pm 81 79

Steady decline in winter below 0° low temperatures. While the 50°+ winter highs have increased at even a faster pace. So Ann Arbor is representative of many other areas.

Not sure yet at this point. But past instances of widespread 100° heat followed by 5”+ deluges usually didn’t have more widespread 100°s from NJ out to Suffolk. But it wouldn’t take much for some scattered 100° heat for the usual warm spots in NJ.

Yeah, the number of these extreme rainfalls and flooding have been steadily increasing across the entire planet. Some areas which are more arid have been experiencing rapid swings between extreme drought and flooding as the water cycle accelerates. So on the list of concerns flooding will rank very high in a much warmer world.

Yeah, each day I walk around the Tweed airport just to my west. The vegetation and grassy areas around have gradually been turning brown last few weeks. Par for the course with the dry pattern and record heat since June 1st. We have generally had under 3 inches since June 1st. The 6 days reaching 90° since June 1st is 2nd highest here from June 1st to July 14th. June 1st to July 14th Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2025-07-14 2.80 0 2024-07-14 6.36 0 2023-07-14 5.29 1 2022-07-14 2.45 0 2021-07-14 7.73 0 2020-07-14 3.97 0

Those amounts along the South Shore dropped off very quickly to the east of Queens. Same up here where I got very little on the CT Shoreline and more to my NW. The lawns and grassy areas around the airport here have begun turning brown up here. The rains usually reach the South Shore areas a little later in time.

Only .5 to .6 from Massapequa out along the South Shore Suffolk. It was another case of the 1.00”+ totals staying closer to the North Shore like we often see this time of year. Remember it was August last year when LI got the 10 inch plus totals. So the 6 inch plus totals stayed to our west. Even here on the CT Shore hardly got much as the lawns are beginning to turn brown here.

The South Shore of LI only got around .5 or less same as the CT shore by me. Everything greatly weakened once east of NJ which got 6”+. NYC was the transition zone.

Only a 3 day period back in June with enough westerly flow before the dominant onshore flow pattern since.

The South Shore hardly got anything compared to the areas just inland from the coast.

Even here along the CT Shoreline we have seen a big increase in 75°+ dew point days over the last decade.