bluewave

At least 3 reports of 6”+ from Union County where the SPC HREF had its local max. So a good performance from the model. This almost had some PRE-like characteristics with the weak tropical low near Florida. Daily Precipitation Report Station Number: NJ-UN-42 Station Name: Westfield 0.8 WSW Data Explorer Observation Date 7/15/2025 6:24 AM Submitted 7/15/2025 6:26 AM Gauge Catch 6.24 in. Notes Historic rain for 4 straight hours, +1” / hour Daily Precipitation Report Station Number: NJ-UN-39 Station Name: Clark Twp 0.7 SSW Data Explorer Observation Date 7/15/2025 7:00 AM Submitted 7/15/2025 7:13 AM Gauge Catch 6.12 in. Notes I submitted several significant weather reports during the storm. A multitude of water rescues were conducted by the Clark Fire Department. Daily Precipitation Report Station Number: NJ-UN-36 Station Name: Clark Twp 1.3 ENE Data Explorer Observation Date 7/15/2025 6:59 AM Submitted 7/15/2025 7:04 AM Gauge Catch 6.67 in. Notes Mostly Sunny…humid…72F

Video clips from the area…

The key to reducing the anxiety is preparedness and awareness. I was very young when my basement apartment got flooded out during Agnes in 1972. So I started paying very close attention to the weather from that point forward.

The warming atmosphere from excess CO2 holds more moisture for these extreme rainfall events. https://www.copernicus.eu/en/news/news/observer-copernicus-climate-change-service-tracks-record-atmospheric-moisture-and-sea Water vapour: the invisible amplifier of global warming In 2024 the atmosphere held more moisture than previously recorded by a large margin. Total column water vapour—the total amount of moisture in a vertical column of air extending from the surface of the Earth to the top of the atmosphere—reached 4.9% above the 1991–2020 average, far surpassing previous highs in 2016 (3.4%) and 2023 (3.3%). Water vapour is Earth’s most abundant greenhouse gas, responsible for about half of the planet’s natural greenhouse effect. Unlike other greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO₂) and methane (CH4), the concentration of water vapour in the atmosphere is not directly influenced by human activities. However, water vapour concentration rises as the atmosphere warms: for every 1°C increase in atmospheric temperature, air can hold 7% more moisture. This creates a vicious cycle—warmer air absorbs more vapour, which traps more heat, further accelerating warming. Annual anomalies in the average amount of total column water vapour over the 60°S–60°N domain relative to the average for the 1992–2020 reference period. The anomalies are expressed as a percentage of the 1992–2020 average. Data: ERA5. Credit: C3S/ECMWF. “Water vapour is both a consequence and a driver of climate change,” explains C3S Director Carlo Buontempo. “In 2024, we saw this feedback loop in ‘overdrive’. Higher sea surface temperatures intensified evaporation, whilst warmer atmosphere allowed more water to be held there as vapour, adding ‘fuel’ to several extreme weather events.” The consequences are potentially disastrous. Increased atmospheric moisture can intensify storms and increase the intensity of the most extreme rainfall. The atmosphere knows no borders, so the potential effects are

Yeah, these extreme heavy rainfall events have become all too common.

Impressive performance from the SPC HREF highlighting that 6”+ max potential around Union County.

Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service New York NY 558 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0550 PM Flash Flood Clark 40.62N 74.31W 07/14/2025 Union NJ Trained Spotter Reservoir overtopping and spilling onto nearby streets and into houses.

MPO closing in on a record breaking 20 inches of rain since May 1st. Time Series Summary for Mount Pocono Area, PA (ThreadEx) May 1st to July 13th Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2025-07-13 18.78 0 2 1952-07-13 18.33 0 3 1989-07-13 17.94 0 4 2013-07-13 17.92 0 5 1972-07-13 17.77 0 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 337 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Northeastern Carbon County in northeastern Pennsylvania... Northwestern Monroe County in northeastern Pennsylvania... * Until 745 PM EDT. * At 337 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly. HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms. SOURCE...Radar. IMPACT...Flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets, and underpasses as well as other drainage and low lying areas. * Some locations that may experience flash flooding include... Mount Pocono, Tobyhanna, Pocono Pines, Long Pond, Pocono Raceway, Gouldsboro State Park, Arrowhead Lake, Blakeslee, Lake Harmony, Meckesville, Albrightsville and Paradise Valley. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Turn around...don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads. In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded roads. Find an alternate route. Flooding is occurring or is imminent. It is important to know where you are relative to streams, rivers, or creeks which can become killers in heavy rains. Campers and hikers should avoid streams or creeks. Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law enforcement and request they pass this information to the National Weather Service when you can do so safely.

We started seeing these very strong ridges over the Pacific Northwest and Northeast in recent years. A general expansion of the subtropical ridges leading record SSTs and land temperatures under these near to record 500mb ridges. So the WPAC has seen one of the more dramatic ridge expansions leading record SSTs in recent years.

I am glad that you were one of the few parts of the country to get some record frozen precipitation last winter like the Gulf Coast. But it was narrowly focused over the Southeast. The January cold in your area didn’t have any lasting power as there were multiple record 80°+ highs shortly after.

Higher humidity equals more clouds.

Steady decrease in lows under 10° across the Northeast with many locations recording some of there lowest winter numbers during the 2020s.

The minimums have set a new record across the area at spots like SMQ for the first half of summer. The average maximum was 7th warmest. But since last year featured the warmest average high, 7th place this year feels cooler by comparison. So it’s all relative to what we are getting acclimated to. Warmest Minimum Temperatures through 7-13Time Series Summary for SOMERSET AIRPORT, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2025-07-13 62.6 0 2 2013-07-13 62.2 0 3 2024-07-13 61.1 0 4 2021-07-13 60.8 0 - 2005-07-13 60.8 0 5 2006-07-13 60.7 0 6 2010-07-13 60.1 0 7 2020-07-13 59.9 0 - 2014-07-13 59.9 0 8 2015-07-13 59.8 17 9 2008-07-13 59.7 0 10 2011-07-13 59.5 0 - 1999-07-13 59.5 8 Warmest Average Maximum Temperature Time Series Summary for SOMERSET AIRPORT, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2024-07-13 87.7 0 2 2010-07-13 86.3 0 3 2020-07-13 85.5 0 4 1999-07-13 85.3 8 5 2008-07-13 85.0 0 6 2021-07-13 84.7 0 - 2012-07-13 84.7 0 7 2025-07-13 84.4 0 8 2016-07-13 84.2 0 - 2005-07-13 84.2 0 9 2022-07-13 84.0 0 10 2014-07-13 83.9 0 - 2011-07-13 83.9 0

Top 5 warmest summer so far for 70° minimums across the Northeast. High dew points and clouds keeping the lows up. Plenty of onshore flow with all the high pressure east of New England.

Enjoy. Montana will be one of the relatively cooler spots in a sea of warm this week. Good timing. If this was the winter, then people on here would be commenting on how another cooldown missed to our west again.

Yeah, the aerial coverage of the 850mb cold pool was among the smallest on record last winter. This is why that even though some of the coldest departures in the Northern Hemisphere were found in the CONUS, 2024-2025 was the 27th warmest winter at 34.07°. When we had much more expansive 850mb cold pools in the Northern Hemisphere back in the late 1970s, we had our coldest winter in 1978-1979 at 26.62°. The general observation has been the areas of the 500mb ridges have been expanding leaving smaller cold troughs. The late January 2025 Arctic outbreak in Baton Rouge LA and record snow was a great example of this recent phenomenon. Although they tied their all-time January low of 7°, the Arctic outbreak only lasted 3 days. They had a record high of 81° in early January and 83° in early February. So one of the more locally focused and limited Arctic outbreaks experienced in the CONUS. Overall January finished up at only the 25th coldest with a modest -3 cold departure against the warmest climate normals. Past occurrences of record snow and cold that far south was accompanied at times by historic cold and snow all the way to the East Coast which didn’t happen this time.

The city of Long Beach made a decision a long time ago that they were going to use the beach for generating revenue. Atlantic Beach to the west has beaches only for residents plus private beach clubs which many from places like the 5 towns and Garden City were members. Lido Beach has an only for residents section plus some beach parks for residents of the Town of Hempstead. Point Lookout is mostly residents only.

The summer of 2010 was really crowded in Long Beach with all the NYC to LB beach trains that summer. Very little parking was available and the local restaurants like Ginos were packed. Never experienced a summer like that in Long Beach with the lack of sea breezes. The 2010-2011 winter was one of the best winters ever in Long Beach. Snow mountains down near the boardwalk near Riverside where all the road crews brought the snow off the streets in dump trucks. Then the extreme July 2011 heat and the major flooding in August. First with the 11” deluge in a few hours around the 14th and the Irene coastal flooding near the end of the month. I moved out before Sandy. My old place was one of the few spots on the barrier Island where the flooding didn’t come into the house. The street flooded and it came over the curb. But the tide stopped rising 2 inches before coming over the top step into the first floor. Came back a few days after Sandy to visit all my old neighbors.

I enjoyed the beach days better during the cooler summers like 2009 and 2004. Much smaller crowds coming into Long Beach with less traffic and parking issues. Also significantly better temperatures for bike riding the boardwalk. During that cool 2004 summer there were plenty of days in the 70s in Long Beach. So on one occasion I was able to get a 40 mile bike ride in. During some of the warmest summers, it was a struggle to even get a good 10-20 miler in at times.

Both things can be true at the same time. Record dew points with the sea breeze front and convection getting pushed to our west. So we get a more stable high dew point marine layer along the coast.

The area around NYC has been fortunate in recent years that the most significant record low max temperatures have been going by to the north. If LGA was able to beat their previous low max of 86° back in 2013 by 2° like BTV did, then they would have their first 88° low. But luckily they have only had a low max of 84° in recent years.

Yeah, that was the coldest July 4th low for many across the region. Data for July 4, 1986 through July 4, 1986 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY NEWCOMB COOP 37 VT MOUNT MANSFIELD COOP 37 NY LAKE PLACID 2 S COOP 38 NY RAY BROOK COOP 39 VT CAVENDISH COOP 39 VT ENOSBURG FALLS COOP 39 for July 4, 1986 through July 4, 1986 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. PA TOBYHANNA POCONO MOUNTAIN ARPT WBAN 35 NJ MORRIS PLAINS 1 W COOP 39 NJ LONG VALLEY COOP 41 NJ SUSSEX 1 NW COOP 41 PA PHOENIXVILLE 1 E COOP 42 NJ NEWTON COOP 42 PA EAST STROUDSBURG COOP 43 NJ HIGH POINT PARK COOP 43 NJ INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP 43 NJ PEMBERTON COOP 44 PA HOPEWELL MORGANTOWN COOP 45 NJ HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 45 NJ FLEMINGTON 5 NNW COOP 45 PA COATESVILLE 2 W COOP 45 NJ ESTELL MANOR COOP 46 PA GRATERFORD 1 E COOP 46 NJ TOMS RIVER COOP 46 PA NESHAMINY FALLS COOP 46 PA BUCKSVILLE COOP 46 NJ SOMERVILLE 4 NW COOP 46 Data for July 4, 1986 through July 4, 1986 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 41 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 43 NY WALDEN 1 ESE COOP 43 NJ CRANFORD COOP 44 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 44 CT COCKAPONSET RANGER STA COOP 44 CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 45 NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 47 NY WESTBURY COOP 47 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 47 NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 48 CT MOUNT CARMEL COOP 48 NY PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP 48 CT GROTON COOP 48 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 49 NY GARNERVILLE COOP 49 NY MIDDLETOWN 2 NW COOP 50 NY MINEOLA COOP 50 NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W COOP 50 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 51 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 51 NY BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 51 NY NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 52 NY WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 52 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 52 NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP 52 NY VANDERBILT MUSEUM COOP 53 NJ JERSEY CITY COOP 54 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 54 CT NEW HAVEN COOP 54 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 54 CT MIDDLETOWN 4 W COOP 54 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 55 NY SCARSDALE COOP 55 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 55 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 56 NY GREENPORT POWER HOUSE COOP 57 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 58 NY NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 59 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 59

When I was growing up it was normal for NYC to have at least one July low in the 50s and POU in the 40s. Now both locations usually stay above 60° and 50° in July. Very challenging with record high dewpoints keeping the lows from dropping as much as they used to.