bluewave

I wonder how strong of an El Nino would be necessary to completely take the record WPAC warm pool out of the equation? Even during the 2015-2016 record super event, we still got the record MJO 5 for such a strong El Nino in December 2015 leading to the +13 that month around NYC. Thankfully, there was a major improvement during January and February 2016. But our next El Nino attempts in 2018-2019 and 2019-2020 were too weak to fully couple due to that record WPAC warm pool leading to the strong La Nina background patterns. Then the borderline super event in 2023-2024 had the record forcing and SST warmth from the IO into the WPAC for such a strong El Nino. This lead to the record warmth and 500mb ridging in Canada extending down into the US with no Nino trough development in the East.

Yeah, short term is the key phrase as those near to record SSTs extend down well below the surface which were recently enhanced by the record IOD.

You can see how the long range models continue to underestimate the forcing near the Maritime Continent with the record warm pool there leading to the stronger Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet. So it interferes with the progression to a true MJO 8 500 mb and storm track pattern with the weaker Pacific Jet. This is why the RMM charts appear to show a slowdown or loop near the 7-8 border and lowering amplitude toward the circle following the higher amplitude 7. New run Old run WPAC warm pool with expansive area of +28C to +30C SSTs

Early first snow for Paris also.

A record number of days this year for gusts over 40mph with so many lows racing through the Great Lakes.

NYC still waiting for their first 32° freeze and ISP their first 28° hard freeze. These minimums for the fall are near the warmest for the season. Same for FWN in NW NJ which still hasn’t dropped below 20° yet. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Sep through Nov Warmest fall min temps Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1998 36 0 2 2009 35 0 - 2006 35 0 3 2016 34 0 - 2010 34 0 - 2001 34 0 - 1963 34 0 - 1902 34 0 4 2025 33 4 - 2011 33 0 - 1985 33 0 - 1948 33 0 - 1907 33 0 5 2015 32 0 - 1983 32 0 - 1968 32 0 - 1954 32 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Sep through Nov warmest fall min temps Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1983 30 0 2 2025 29 4 - 2011 29 0 - 2006 29 0 3 2009 28 0 - 1985 28 0 4 2024 27 0 - 2016 27 0 - 1998 27 0 - 1980 27 0 - 1979 27 0 - 1977 27 0 - 1971 27 0 5 2012 26 0 - 2010 26 0 - 1988 26 0 - 1984 26 0 Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ - Sep through Nov Warmest fall min temps Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2025 22 4 - 2011 22 6 - 2009 22 0 - 2006 22 0 2 2024 21 0 3 2023 20 5 - 2017 20 0 - 2016 20 8 4 2021 19 0 - 2020 19 0 - 2012 19 5 - 2004 19 0 - 2001 19 1 5 2015 18 0 - 2010 18 0 - 2003 18 0 - 2002 18 0

Probably our warmest day of the week today with several spots approaching 60°.

Yeah, this is the reason that we don’t always get a perfect MJO composite match for the RMM charts. Multiple areas of forcing often lead to blended looks between the composites. Sometimes we get more consolidated forcing and it closely resembles a specific phase composite.

I suspect this split forcing is the reason for the volatility that we have been seeing in the models for the first 10 days of December. Models struggle with the placement of features when there are multiple areas of forcing. My only guess that I made earlier for December is that we will have a weaker -PNA and colder Canada than last year.

These long range OP runs can be very pretty. You can see a very broad -PNA trough developing in the ensemble means. Ongoing tug of war between the competing forcing influences On one hand you have the forcing near the Maritime Continent causing the -PNA trough. The 2nd factor is the forcing over the Western Hemisphere trying to build a ridge bridge over the top from Northern Greenland to the -WPO ridge. I suspect this split forcing is why we are getting a composite blend very long range between a Phase 6-7-8 look. The RMMS may try to slow the progression on the 7-8 border in response to split forcing. So at this point I would say early December will feature a broad gradient type pattern with cold across the Northern tier. Mid month will depend on the progression of the forcing. if the ridge bridge over the top wins out, then we will know a phase 8 is trying to take hold. If the -PNA and +EPO become more dominant and the trough pulls back to the west, then we will know the forcing near the Maritime Continent is having a greater influence. Recent experience has favored the 2nd option of a relaxation of the pattern mid to late month. If this doesn’t happen, then we’ll know something new is taking place which we haven’t seen in a while.

The same thing happened back in my old neighborhood of Long Beach. Growing up in the 1970s it was more like Coney Island with numerous boardwalk arcades and an amusement park. Then gentrification began in the 1980s and now multimillion dollar condos took the place of these former attractions. I always found very interesting people living there and it reminded me more of a NYC cosmopolitan neighborhood than a Long Island suburb. Out of all the places that I lived on Long Island, Long Beach had the most character. The condos and apartments below are right where the bowling alley used to be before it closed around 1980. https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/100-Boardwalk-Unit-1001_Long-Beach_NY_11561_M99207-31637 https://www.realtor.com/rentals/details/180-Boardwalk_Long-Beach_NY_11561_M94073-56016

Thanks for posting such beautiful photos. Probably one of the most in demand urban places in the U.S. that people want to move to. You are really lucky to be living in such a charming historic area. https://www.instagram.com/reel/DQZcBGhAEp7/

We haven’t been able to bet on El Niños or La Ninas near NYC over the past 7 winters with how strong the Northern Stream has become. In the old days some of my heaviest snowstorms were during El Niños back on the South Shore up to 2015-2016. These days you really want elevation and latitude in the Northeast.

Even with a very strong -EPO +PNA this fall on the storm days, the Western Atlantic ridge found a way to flex. The composite below is for the 11 wettest days of fall in NYC. The main storm track was still through the Eastern Great Lakes.

Plus we are talking about the long term increasing influence of the Southeast or Western Atlantic ridge on our sensible weather.

I will take warm winter with a cold storm track over a cold or near normal winter and a warm storm track.

December has been one of the most challenging months for sustaining deep -NAO patterns since 2011. Pretty much the opposite of May. This is one of the reasons why we haven’t seen a repeat of record December snows from 2000 to 2010 around NYC.

Mount Mansfield off to a great start.

This is why I would much rather roll the dice with a very strong El Niño even if the winter is very warm like 23-24. We got a one week relaxation from the overpowering Northern Stream which has been dominating last 7 years. The El Niño driven Southern Stream was 2nd strongest on record for DC.

This is also a function of the weaker PNA than last December which we were both expecting. More cold available in Canada than last December. But the same stubborn storm track.

Which is better for the Great Lakes into New England. Gradients usually end up farther north than originally forecast once we get into the short term compared to the longer range forecasts. Models not varying the storm track pattern with a dominant Northern Stream.

The ensembles always show variations with week 2 forecasts. There really hasn’t been that much of a change. Still looking at a Southeast ridge or Western Atlantic ridge and a trough digging into the Baja to start December. New day 6-10 Old day 11-15

The significant trend the models have been showing for early December is more of a Southeast ridge. Of course every run is going to show the departures on any given day being a little different when we are talking week 2 modeling. Some days the ridge will pulse up and others pulse down. But the continuing very fast Pacific flow will continue to limit or storm track options at least into early December.

It’s less important what the long range models are showing since that can vary from run to run. But the long range forecast biases for each type of regime remain more constant over time. Plus the inability of the models to see seasonal repeating patterns until the actual pattern is getting close to occurring.

Same storm track pattern heading into December. Great Lakes cutter, I-78 to I-84 hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream. Plus we haven’t had a gradient pattern work for us in over a decade.