bluewave

There are two ways for winter temperatures to have an effect on snowfall amounts for any given location. The first is through the average winter temperatures. The second way is the temperatures on the days that the precipitation falls. Even during winters with favorable colder storm tracks for NYC, they don’t reach 50” on the season if the overall winter average is much above 32.0°. So tracks which used to produce heavier snows in a colder climate now produce less as the temperatures become more marginal. The reason you reached 50” in the seasons that NYC didn’t is a function of the colder temperatures where you live. Plus the temperatures aloft are also colder in interior Northern NJ than they are closer to NYC. Many times the coastal fronts stall out just to the north and west of NYC leading to a slower mix or changeover to rain for those areas.

Yeah, mid 70s away from the sea breeze in NJ. But the flow at JFK is forecast to be SSE. So we’ll see if JFK can beat guidance by a few degrees and sneak in a 70°.

This is a function of the tree growth since the 1990s. So the high temperatures have been artificially suppressed by a large margin when the trees are leafed out. Same reason for the summer decline in highs and 90 days over this period. Notice how NYC is the only station to show a slight decline in high temperatures from 30 years before and after the new ASOS was put under the trees in 1995. NYC used to measure temperatures out in the open like all other stations do before the station change in 1995. Once NYC drops the leaves by later in the fall the temperature trends are closer to the other stations. But even then NYC still has a slight cool bias during the winter due to the dense tree growth and lower sun angle enhancing the shade.

NYC was too warm both winters to reach 50” of snow while your area was colder. Nearly all the seasons that NYC had 50” or greater of snow were closer to 32.0° like your area was. In 17-18 when your area had 53.0” the DJF average at SMQ was 31.9°. NYC only finished with 40.9° and the DJF average temperature was 36.3°. Same went for 20-21 when your area had 51.0” and the SMQ average temperature was 32.5”. NYC had 38.6” in 20-21 with an average temperature of 36.1”. Just going a small distance inland from the coast can have a large difference in snowfall when the temperatures are marginal.

Yeah, weaker amplitude MJO through 4-6 than last year which was what I was expecting. The strong amplitude October MJO 4-6 years like 2024, 2020, and 2017 preceded the stronger +PNAs from December into January. The weaker years like 2022, 2021, and 2016 had a lower PNA. So this fits with my early thinking that this winter will be warmer than last year. But my guess is that there could still be some +PNA intervals but not to the extent of last winter. Snowfall is a bit more of a wild card. Since the snows were so low winter, it wouldn’t take much for an equal or better snowfall outcome. But that won’t be known until I see the December snowfall indicator. I am hoping that we can change up the dominant cutter,hugger,and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks at least for a few weeks to maybe one month. That will probably be MJO dependent and not known until we get close to the time it starts showing up the medium range models.

Yeah, JFK and several spots in NJ and Eastern PA made it to 70° on the offshore flow. Looks like areas in NJ will be favored for more 70s this weekend. But probably too much onshore flow at places like JFK. Data for October 15, 2025 through October 15, 2025 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. DE WILMINGTON AIRPORT WBAN 73 DE GEORGETOWN-DELAWARE COASTAL AIRPORT WBAN 72 PA PHILADELPHIA INTL AP WBAN 72 NJ ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP WBAN 72 NJ MILLVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT WBAN 71 NJ SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 70 NJ SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 70 Data for October 15, 2025 through October 15, 2025 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 72 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 70 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 70

With the highs beating guidance yesterday JFK moved into the top 5 again for 70° days. CLIMATE REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 216 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2025 ................................... ...THE KENNEDY NY CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER 15 2025... CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1948 TO 2025 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL ................................................................... TEMPERATURE (F) YESTERDAY MAXIMUM 70 153 PM 82 1975 65 5 60 MINIMUM 53 1159 PM 37 1999 50 3 46 AVERAGE 62 58 4 53 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec 70° days Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2024 167 0 2 2015 160 0 3 2021 158 0 - 2010 158 0 4 1985 157 0 5 2025 155 77 - 2007 155 0

The lake effect zones have been the place to be with the shift in the storm track west of the Apps in recent years. Plus the warmer lake temperatures are helping boost your snowfall totals. But areas to the east of the storm tracks have seen a steep decline in snowfall. The Apps runner snowstorm which was prolific from the 60s to 90s has been missing. State College has seen a large snowfall decline since the 60s while your near the lakes area has seen a general increase.

I think that we are both saying the same thing in our own way. The larger pattern since 2018-2019 has been a function of how dominant the Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet has been. But the smaller features in that larger pattern can vary according to location. Unfortunately, the best snowfall axis lined up from ACY to Boston in 21-22. But I would still take another winter month like January 22 even if the best axis of snowfall isn’t right in my area. One benefit of living at your latitude is that you can still get over 40” even if you are 20” below your longer term average.

Most areas in the +1 to +3 range for the first two weeks of October. FWN….+2.1° TTN……+1.2° SMQ…..+2.1° NBW….+3.1° EWR…..+2.6° NYC…..+1.7° JFK……+1.6° LGA……+0.9 HPN…..+3.4° ISP…….+3.2° BDR…..-0.2° HVN…..+3.2° DXR……+3.1° POU…..+1.6°

Yeah, I drove back to Long two days after Sandy. Came down Austin Blvd in Island Park and there were still boats washed up in the road around the Texas Car Wash. Luckily my old house was on one of the highest parts of the barrier island. So the water stopped a few inches from coming over my top step. But the lowest areas like the West End had water up to 4-5 feet deep in people’s houses. Even if you lived in a higher up level of the apartment buildings and condos, there was no water or sewer for two weeks after the storm.

I moved out of Long Beach earlier in the year before Sandy arrived. That storm was in a class by itself. The tide level was around 4 feet higher with larger waves than in the 92 Nor’easter and Irene. The Lincoln Blvd section of the boardwalk in this video collapsed shortly after the power went out and the guy had to stop recording.

Major, moderate, and minor all describe specific benchmarks for coastal flooding. Minor and moderate coastal flooding events usually result in only street flooding and beach erosion. This event was at the moderate benchmark for coastal flooding at places like Sandy Hook and Freeport. The water level reached near the 8 ft moderate level at Sandy Hook. Low end major coastal flooding by a few inches usually means that the water can come up into peoples yards or lawns but not into the first floor of their house in the lowest lying coastal zones. This was the case along the GSB with this event. Once major coastal flooding gets around .75 to 1.5 feet above the major threshold, then flooding can come into the first floors of houses. This is what occurred with the 1992 Nor’easter and Hurricane Irene. Sandy was around 4.5” higher than December 1992 and Irene leading to the historic flooding in places which haven’t flooded in modern times. It was 5.7” above the major coastal flooding threshold at Sandy Hook reaching the 14.4” level. Sandy Hook has the most extensive list of coastal flooding records in area https://www.weather.gov/media/phi/middle.pdf

Those spring nor’easter events were weak compared to what we more regularly got in the past. Most of our storms in recent years have been cutters and huggers. It’s why this was the first 45+ mph gust of the year from the northeast at LGA. All the other 45+ mph gusts this year were more westerly.

You live in a colder area west of I-95 than NYC and other warmer coastal areas. So in marginal storms when the I-95 corridor and points east change to rain your area can remain mostly snow. NYC and coastal sections haven’t reached average mid 20s seasonal snowfall without at least one KU event since the 1990s. Prior to the 1990s NYC and the coastal sections were cold enough to reach mid 20s seasonal snowfall with a bunch of small to moderate events. Hopefully, we can see at least an intermittent return to KU benchmark tracks over the remainder of the 2020s so NYC can have a shot at reaching average snowfall or better.

NYC finished 24-25 with only 7.5” of snow. They got 2” of snow from that very narrow band. So even if they got the 11.3” that New Brunswick did just to the south, that would have only resulted in around 16.8” on the season. Close to 10” below the long term average in the 25-26” range.

Nor’easters have been few and far between in recent years. This was our first one in quite some time. It’s the only time all year that we had NE gusts over 45 mph at place like LGA. All the other days with winds gusts over 45 came from a more westerly component.

It’s possible the record low Arctic sea ice in the Kara and Barents is helping to strengthen the blocking there leading to most of our blocking episodes being more -AO dominant than -NAO dominant. Zack Labe‬ ‪@zacklabe.com‬ · 1d In contrast to the other side of the #Arctic, sea ice along the Atlantic front is a record low for this time of year. This relates to the recent record warmth and southerly winds/waves pushing the marginal ice zone closer to the North Pole. Data from @nsidc.bsky.social (nsidc.org/data/seaice_...). ALT 39

Looks like we are returning back to a Great Lakes cutter pattern.

Most spots were several feet below Irene as that was nearly identical to the tide levels during December 1992. This was a pretty moderate nor’easter as they go for most spots. Plus we avoided the highest astronomical tides by several days.

It’s a back and forth pattern with the warm ups being more impressive than the cool downs.

Still a very moderate event for most of us as the two weaker lows didn’t consolidate into one stronger event like earlier model runs forecast. A few spots like the GSB had a low end major event. But that is still below the really big nor’easters of the 90s which had extensive higher level major across nearly all our stations. Plus widespread 75+ and 80+ wind gusts with more extensive power outages.

I just said that where the mesoscale banding sets up could be considered luck like in February 2024 in regard to which specific areas got the heaviest totals. But the wider winter pattern in 23-24 being so warm was a function of the pattern. Plus the banding locations are due to the pattern at the time of the storm. Even if the banding was closer to NYC, then it would still have been a well below average snowfall season for them. Since it’s very hard to reach average with just one snowfall event. Unless it’s a high end KU like February 1983 or January 2016. So if the best the winter can produce is a very narrow snow band surrounded by most areas finishing with well below average snow it’s due to specific meteorological and climatic warming factors. We only got one week that winter during February when the record STJ streak was able to have some positive influence. In a way it was a much weaker El Niño backloaded winter event but the warmth that winter was the dominant factor. So as the winters continue to warm it results in the odds being tilted to more below normal snowfall outcomes. This isn’t to say we can’t eventually see a really solid snowfall month going forward like a reflection of January 2022. But we still haven’t seen a month that good especially across the SE NJ sections like ACY northeast to Islip.

There is no luck involved for the general pattern since 18-19. Maybe you can argue luck when mesoscale banding dumps the heaviest totals outside your immediate neighborhood. But the smaller number of opportunities to even get an event that can produce decent banding within a certain distance of where you live is all on the warmer storm tracks and overall patterns. So the odds have been favoring lower snowfall totals. Just like in great patterns you get more opportunities for snowy outcomes as you will eventually find yourself under the best banding since the higher number of opportunities eventually puts your neighborhood under the heaviest mesoscale banding. What happened in your area during 2021-2022? Boston got 54.0” which is around 10” above the long term average.

The big story last winter was diminishing snowfall returns from past La Nina strong +PNA mismatches. The past La Nina’s with strong +PNA’s from December into January all featured at least 35”+ in NYC going back to the 90s. Since this was the first time in 30 years that the Pacific Jet didn’t relax during this pattern, NYC only recorded 12.9”. So we weren’t able to see a repeat of the 38.6” in 20-21….40.9” in 17-18….40.0” in 05-06…35.0” in 00-01….75.6 in 95-96. The only times the Pacific Jet has been able to sufficiently weaken since 18-19, was during DJF 20-21 and January 22. So no luck was involved during those winters. Just solid fundamentals which allowed 20-21 to be the only snowy season in NYC out of the last 7. But there were some issues during December 2020. First, the Greenland block linked up with the Southeast ridge causing the storm to track very close to ACY. This shifted the record 40” snows to go inland near BGM instead of closer to the coastal plain. But thankfully, the late January into early February event took the classic KU track and delivered for much of the region. The January 22 pattern favored eastern areas for the heaviest snows. But it was still a great month for snow and cold due to the classic MJO 8 pattern. January 22 was the last both cold and snowy winter month for many across the region. Going forward we’ll have to see if maybe we can get at least one solid winter month for snow and cold like January 22. That was MJO 8 driven which allowed the Pacific Jet to weaken for a short period. As the Pacific Jet was really dominant in the other two winter months that year.