bluewave

I was happy to get the PNA mismatch potential last October from the early MJO indicator back in October which was a key part of the seasonal 500 mb pattern. Then the under 4” snow last December around NYC signaled another below average snowfall season. I tend to score long range seasonal forecasts like how the batting average is regarded in baseball. All you need to have a shot at the batting title in any given year is to get a hit only around 33% of the time. So if you get at least 1 aspect of the 3 key elements including 500mb pattern, P-types and amounts with the storm track, and the temperatures correct then I will consider it a good showing from seasonal outlook.

The record ridge and drought in Canada generated strong high pressure and low dewpoints. This was followed up by the record trough over the Western Great Lakes ago. These very cold early season temperatures are actually being driven by the minimums allowing ideal early fall radiational cooling. We should continue with the comfortable early fall temperatures here right into mid-September as Canadian high pressure dominates. But much the CONUS is experiencing expanding drought conditions. So we could see a drought feedback warm up beginning to west while we enjoy the great early fall weather here. Unfortunately, the reliable models only go out 15 days. So the pattern from late September into October will depend on the pattern evolution. If we start getting more high pressure to our SW, then that drought feedback warmth could arrive here later September into October. Statistically we don’t see much 90° heat here at the warm spots like Newark that late in the season. We haven’t seen any 90° heat at these locations after September 20th since 2017 and 2019. But you never know if this will be the first 2020s year to pull it off. Especially if the winds can turn more SW. The big theme here in recent years has been record 80s warmth right into late October and early November like last year.

Top 5 coolest 8-25 to 9-7 period for the Great Lakes area. Similar theme to recent years with the coldest temperatures going to our west. Will be interesting to see how big the temperature rebound is in the coming weeks as these cooldowns over the years have been tough to sustain for very long. This was the coldest 8-25 to 9-7 period for Dayton, Ohio since record keeping began in 1935. Time Series Summary for DAYTON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, OH top 5 coldest 8-25 to 9-7 periods Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2025-09-07 63.3 0 2 2017-09-07 63.9 0 3 1988-09-07 64.7 0 - 1935-09-07 64.7 0 4 1986-09-07 64.9 0 - 1946-09-07 64.9 0 5 1968-09-07 65.3 0

When I was a kid growing up, we were lucky if even the next few days forecast was correct. The computer models were really primitive during the 70s and 80s. But the Euro doing so well with March 93 and January 96 events began to give us some confidence in the 3-5 day forecast. Occasionally the model does really well on storm details day 6-10 like with Sandy. But the range beyond week 1 and week 2 is still very low skill. Maybe they can find a way for AI to bias correct the longer range NWP forecasts.

If we are looking for as close to perfection as we can get from an October seasonal forecast, then the JMA October 2013 record TNH forecast was pretty close. https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/wmc/products/model/map/7mE/map1/pztmap.php

I know the NYC micronet in Fresh Kills made it to 92° yesterday and Newark was 90° along with Harrison.The next area of 90° highs was spread out from SNJ to CNJ. Fresh Kills 92 67 Climatological Data for HARRISON, NJ - September 2025 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2025-09-01 80 61 70.5 -2.9 0 6 0.00 0.0 0 2025-09-02 80 60 70.0 -3.1 0 5 0.00 0.0 0 2025-09-03 79 58 68.5 -4.4 0 4 0.00 0.0 0 2025-09-04 81 62 71.5 -1.1 0 7 0.00 0.0 0 2025-09-05 80 65 72.5 0.1 0 8 0.89 0.0 0 2025-09-06 86 67 76.5 4.4 0 12 0.00 0.0 0 2025-09-07 90 61 75.5 3.7 0 11 1.29 0.0

There are really three key elements of a seasonal forecast. General seasonal temperatures, storm tracks which includes P-types and amounts, and the 500 mb patterns. The Euro missed on the temperatures and 500mb heights. But the storm tracks and snowfall amounts were mostly right. So it just could be that the model stock La Niña forecast only worked out for the storm track through the Eastern Great Lakes. Unfortunately, this has been the default primary storm track since 18-19.

Yeah, the one constant is that the warm departures have consistently been more impressive than the cool departures over the years. So when we get these brief cooler patterns, the rebound back to warmer is of a greater magnitude. Whether we just bounce back to mid 80s later in September or see a few warm spots reach 90° again is still unknown.

Nearly 20 other stations in NJ made it to 90° yesterday in addition to Newark. Home News Blog myWxNet Tabular Data Maps Charts Contact Us Data Viewer < BACK 1 DAYFORWARD 1 DAY > Search: City State Eastern Time Source Daily Temp Max Daily Temp Min Daily Dew Point Max Daily Dew Point Min Daily RH Max Daily Min RH Daily BP Max Daily BP Min Daily Precip Daily Wind Max Daily Wind Max Dir ▼ Atlantic City Marina NJ 2025-09-06 SafetyNet 79 71 0.47 32 ▼ Basking Ridge NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 86 61 78 61 100 66 30.04 29.88 0.20 15 WNW ▼ Berkeley Twp. NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 91 70 75 67 100 56 30.02 29.88 1.15 24 W ▼ Cape May Court House NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 88 71 76 69 100 64 0.29 16 SSW ▼ Cedar Bridge NJ 2025-09-06 USFS 89 64 72 60 98 54 1.51 36 W ▼ Charlotteburg NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 82 62 78 60 100 72 30.02 29.88 0.39 15 N ▼ Cherry Hill NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 89 68 78 66 100 54 0.25 14 SE ▼ Chester Borough NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 79 61 72 58 97 67 30.05 29.91 0.05 21 NW ▼ Columbus NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 88 66 77 66 99 58 30.00 29.87 0.70 23 SW ▼ Cream Ridge NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 91 69 78 67 100 56 29.99 29.84 0.82 21 S ▼ Dennis Twp. NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 87 70 76 68 100 64 1.25 21 NW ▼ East Brunswick NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 90 67 75 65 96 56 30.04 29.88 0.72 38 W ▼ Egg Harbor Twp. NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 87 71 75 69 100 65 30.01 29.88 0.83 17 S ▼ Fort Dix NJ 2025-09-06 USFS 91 70 74 66 98 46 1.73 25 SSE ▼ Fortescue NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 82 71 80 71 100 92 30.03 29.87 0.84 41 NW ▼ Greenwich NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 88 70 79 68 100 67 2.60 21 W ▼ Hackettstown NJ 2025-09-06 SafetyNet 85 59 30.04 29.89 0.40 15 ▼ Hamilton NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 90 67 75 66 99 51 1.08 14 W ▼ Hammonton NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 92 69 74 67 100 52 1.47 23 NW ▼ Harvey Cedars NJ 2025-09-06 SafetyNet 79 71 0.84 29 ▼ Haworth NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 0.28 24 NW ▼ High Point NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 78 59 71 56 99 71 30.03 29.90 0.02 17 WNW ▼ High Point Monument NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 74 57 70 55 100 77 0.01 27 WSW ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 88 62 76 62 100 63 0.53 26 SW ▼ Holmdel NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 90 66 75 66 100 56 1.09 16 ESE ▼ Hopewell Twp. NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 89 62 76 62 100 58 30.02 29.87 0.22 31 N ▼ Howell NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 91 65 75 65 100 55 30.04 29.89 3.01 15 W ▼ Jersey City NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 87 66 76 64 99 60 29.98 29.80 0.66 25 W ▼ Kingwood NJ 2025-09-06 SafetyNet 83 63 30.02 29.88 0.07 12 ▼ Little Egg Harbor Twp. NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 100 72 30.02 0.57 31 SW ▼ Little Falls NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 86 65 74 59 100 62 30.04 29.88 0.05 16 ENE ▼ Logan Twp. NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 89 69 75 64 93 60 30.03 29.87 0.06 18 SW ▼ Lower Alloways Creek NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 92 69 79 67 100 60 30.01 29.85 0.38 26 N ▼ Lyndhurst NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 86 67 74 62 90 63 30.03 29.83 0.48 34 SSW ▼ Mannington Twp. NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 89 69 81 67 100 62 30.01 29.86 0.37 19 SW ▼ Mansfield NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 89 68 75 67 100 58 0.83 26 NW ▼ Moorestown NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 87 67 77 67 100 64 30.01 29.87 1.00 25 SSW ▼ Mullica Twp. NJ 2025-09-06 SafetyNet 89 68 0.87 ▼ New Brunswick NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 89 66 75 65 99 52 30.02 29.85 0.66 42 SSW ▼ North Haledon NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 85 65 75 61 99 64 30.04 29.89 0.22 17 SE ▼ Oceanport NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 86 66 76 66 100 69 3.06 26 NNW ▼ Oswego Lake NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 91 67 76 66 100 59 29.98 29.84 1.62 21 S ▼ Parsippany NJ 2025-09-06 SafetyNet 81 64 0.69 ▼ Pennsauken NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 91 70 73 66 92 55 30.03 29.87 0.12 24 WSW ▼ Pequest NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 82 61 76 61 100 64 30.04 29.86 0.43 16 W ▼ Piney Hollow NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 92 69 75 67 100 57 1.88 18 NNW ▼ Pittstown NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 82 63 73 60 95 59 30.04 29.91 18 W ▼ Point Pleasant NJ 2025-09-06 SafetyNet 83 68 0.73 19 ▼ Ramsey NJ 2025-09-06 SafetyNet 83 62 29.99 29.83 0.06 13 ▼ Red Lion NJ 2025-09-06 SafetyNet 91 68 ▼ Sandyston NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 81 60 72 57 100 67 30.02 29.88 0.02 14 W ▼ Sea Girt NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 82 68 75 68 100 76 30.03 29.89 0.86 28 S ▼ Seaside Heights NJ 2025-09-06 SafetyNet 73 70 0.42 8 ▼ Sewell NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 88 70 76 68 100 59 0.60 15 SSW ▼ Sicklerville NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 93 70 77 67 100 53 29.98 29.85 1.48 17 SW ▼ Silas Little NJ 2025-09-06 USFS 91 68 73 65 98 46 2.12 22 S ▼ South Harrison NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 88 68 77 67 99 63 0.26 16 NW ▼ Stewartsville NJ 2025-09-06 SafetyNet 83 62 30.04 29.89 0.04 20 ▼ Toms River NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 90 71 73 66 99 52 0.62 22 SSW ▼ Upper Deerfield NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 89 70 78 68 100 64 30.01 29.88 2.62 29 W ▼ Vernon Twp. NJ 2025-09-06 SafetyNet 78 58 100 71 0.02 20 ▼ Vineland NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 90 70 80 69 100 60 30.01 1.63 22 NW ▼ Wall Twp. NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 86 67 76 67 100 67 0.98 17 SW ▼ Walpack NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 82 57 72 56 99 65 30.05 29.92 0.01 14 N ▼ Wantage NJ 2025-09-06 SafetyNet 77 60 94 67 30.03 29.88 0.03 23 ▼ West Cape May NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 81 68 79 68 100 88 0.01 17 NNW ▼ West Deptford NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 90 70 76 64 98 56 30.03 29.87 0.15 15 S ▼ Woodbine NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 89 70 78 68 100 59 30.01 29.85 0.99 20 S ▼ Woodland Twp. NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 90 67 75 66 100 58 2.22 30

What model guidance from a few weeks ago suggested that the WAR would flex enough for the 90° warmth yesterday? All the models had a trough in the East for the whole first week of September. This is why I was pointing out a few weeks ago that it wouldn’t take much to sneak in another 90° day when none of the models were showing it. Plus statistically we haven’t had 2 years in a row at Newark not reach 90 after August 17th in over 20 years. This week looks cooler and drier as Canadian high pressure dominates. So if the models are similarly underestimating the ridging in the East later in September on today’s runs, then Newark could make it to 40 days reaching 90° with strong warmth building to our west. I am pretty sure we see more mid to upper 80s like you mentioned. But have included the possibility of another 90° although still to early to know for sure. There is another factor at play. Cooler periods like we have seen since late August have been few and far between in recent years. When they have occurred the warm ups following them have been more impressive. This could mean a higher number of late season 80° days like last year since we don’t always get 90° heat past early to mid September.

The source region to our west will really be warming up by next weekend. Remember the models missed the 90° heat yesterday from the 6-10 and 11-15 day forecasts. This is what I was discussing back in late August when no 90° days were showing up. So if we can get one of the big highs over Southeast Canada to drop down to the Carolinas, then the usual warm spots like Newark could make it to 40 days reaching 90° if the winds turn more SW.

If a seasonal forecast model gets any aspect of its winter forecast correct, then I will give it credit. The storm track aspect and well below normal snowfall forecast worked out. Even if the temperatures and 500mb pattern were significantly off. So the very fast Pacific flow and Southeast ridge found ways to emerge right during our biggest storm dates last winter. The last time we saw any seasonal forecast get most of its seasonal forecast correct may have been the JMA for the 13-14 winter issued during that October. As a general rule, computer modeling doesn’t have much skill beyond 1 to 2 weeks out. My guess is that they just run with a stock composite for whichever phase of ENSO we are in. So when we got a mismatch like my early outlook last October suggested, the stock La Niña composite didn’t work out. The record WPAC warm pool prevented the Euro colder pattern forecast for the 23-24 El Niño in much of the East from developing. Instead we got the record warmth. During the 22-23 La Niña the much stronger -PDO interaction with that pattern resulted in a much deeper Western trough than forecast. So we got the record warmth in the East that the model missed. 21-22 had the record December -PNA and warmth which the seasonal forecast couldn’t see. Plus the MJO 8 in January which couldn’t be seen beyond a few weeks out. The overall 3 month average for that winter wasn’t too far off. But of course the finer details were significantly different. 20-21 missed the +PNA December mismatch again from the October MJO signal that year. It was the first time I used it for a seasonal discussion that year back in the NYC Metro forum. The 19-20 colder Euro forecast was off that year since the El Niño couldn’t couple due to the record WPAC warm pool along with the fall IO forcing leading to the record SPV and strong +AO +NAO. The Euro 18-19 forecast was also off since its colder El Niño forecast couldn’t couple due to the record WPAC warm pool.

Was nice to so see a forecast rainfall axis actually shift east over time like the models started doing a few days ago.

Will be interesting to see if Newark can sneak in one more 90° day to make it to 40 before the season ends. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2010 54 0 2 2022 49 0 - 1993 49 0 3 1988 43 0 4 2021 41 0 - 2002 41 0 - 1991 41 0 5 2016 40 0 - 1983 40 0 - 1959 40 0 6 2025 39 116 - 1994 39 0 - 1944 39 0 7 2005 37 0 - 1987 37 0 8 2018 36 0 - 1949 36 0 9 2015 35 0 10 1961 34 0

While many spots still have a significant rainfall deficit over the last year, it was nice to get just over 1.00” here since yesterday.

DC used to average more than 20” of snow a year. So their snowfall has been in steady decline for years now. The much lower bar allowed DC to reach near average this year at 14.9”. DC missed out on the snowy 16-17 and 17-18 seasons further north. So this is the first 9 year stretch there with under a 10” average. If your average snowfall eventually gets low enough, then it can be easier to reach the new lower average with one storm. That’s why the further south you get in the U.S. the easier it becomes for one storm to get you closer to the new lower snowfall averages. In a cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm track regime for Philly to Boston, sometimes the DC area can get a snow event which gets suppressed south of the Philly to Boston I-95 corridor. Makes sense that the long term snowfall decline is more pronounced around DC since they are further south where it’s warmer with more marginal temperatures to begin with.

The reason the Euro seasonal snowfall forecast worked out from Philly to Boston is that the storm track matched the seasonal forecast. So it didn’t really matter for the snowfall outcomes that the overall forecast for DJF was too warm. Since the colder conditions than forecast last winter came in behind the warmer storm track.

But the storm track matched the warm winter pattern it was forecasting. The composites below are for the 20 days that .20+ of precipitation fell from Philly to Boston. The average temperature at Philly to NYC on these days was in the low 40s. So it was too warm for much snow with the storm track to the west of the I-95 corridor. The Euro seasonal precipitation forecast had above average near the Eastern Great Lakes matching the warmer storm track which verified. Plus there was major flooding in areas like West Virginia along this storm track. The Southeast ridge on the days when the wettest storms occurred was even more amplified than what the general seasonal forecast from the Euro was. Plus the warm departure on the heaviest storm days was significantly warmer than the seasonal temperature forecast. So in effect a warmer version of the seasonal forecast did occur through the storm track. The Pacific Jet was too strong and warm for much snowfall from Philly to Boston relative to the means. This has been a common theme leading to the record low snowfall near I-95 since 2018-2019.

It was the warm storm tracks from Philly to Boston that resulted in the very low snowfall. Very strong Southeast ridge and Pacific Jet on the days when most of the precipitation fell. This has been the main theme since 2018-2019.

The much below average snowfall forecast from the seasonal models run during the fall of 2024 from Philly to Boston did work out. They even got the very low snowfall correct for Chicago. That’s what most on here follow anyway. A continuation of the warm storm tracks through the Great Lakes theme.

It’s good to see some areas doing this well with these big Pacific Jet extensions in recent years. Looks like the strong -IOD forcing lead to the jet extension and wave breaking event. Record warmth in Western Canada with record high 500mb height anomalies. Then the record low 500mb heights over the Western Great Lakes leading to the very early snowfall.

The Great Lakes snowbelts continue to be the best spots for snow in recent years.

Same summer pattern with heaviest rains staying just inland from the coast with .39 here.