bluewave

Much stronger 500 mb heights over Canada with the 2020s -PDO vs during the earlier era. Also notice the more impressive North Pacific ridge. Plus the volatility next 10 days with the big EPO shift.

This is a very similar October 500 mb pattern to 2021,2022,2023, and 2024. Very strong blocking over Canada pressing down into the Great Lakes and Northeast. The next 10 days has more of the same with a very strong blocking again near Hudson Bay.

The wetlands in our area are key ecosystems. While we lost large swaths to development from Jamaica Bay out to Eastern LI, at least what we have now has been designated as preserves. Imagine seeing the whole area from NYC out to Long Island hundreds of years ago. NY Harbor back to the NJ Meadowlands was one of the greatest natural estuaries in all of North America. Jamaica Bay wildlife refuge is still one of the most important stopovers for migrating shorebirds in the East. Before the 5 towns was developed it was called the Woodmere Woods. That was an extensive forested area which people fought to save before it got developed in the mid 1900s. Much of Central Nassau was called the Hempstead Plains natural grasslands. Only a small portion of the original habitat survives near Nassau Community College. The back bays from Nassau to across the GSB still have a large mash habitat. The further east you go on Long Island the closer you get to something that is close to the original state. Especially from the Pine Barrens out to the Twin Forks.

The wetlands are some of the most important ecosystems on the entire planet.

JFK averaged 41.79” from 1970 to 2002. Same old story of the thunderstorms weakening before reaching the South Shore. Didn’t notice much difference in the insects growing up back in Long Beach away from the marshes between the wetter and drier summers. But the marsh areas always had a very high number of mosquitos.

JFK averages less than NYC. As the best frontal convergence is usually to the west. The heaviest amounts from 2003 to 2024 were at NYC and New Brunswick. The greatest difference between JFK and NYC is during the warm season with the sea breeze fronts to the west of JFK. 2003 to 2024 annual average rainfall NYC….52.71” NBW….51.96” EWR….48.86” LGA…..48.04” HPN….46.81” ISP…….46.70” JFK……45.09” May to October NYC…28.79” JFK….23.70” November to April NYC…..23.98” JFK……21.38”

The amount of insects isn’t going to significantly change if we get around 50” year like we have since the 1970s. Mold issues in recent years like the college dorms after the summer were more a function of the very high dew points. There is a large vacant parcel of land by me that they cut every few months. The weeds grew just as fast to a significant height even with one of the driest summers on record here. So weeds are a very hearty and adaptable species of plants. Some people have pollen allergies that can drop after the heavy rains wash some of the extra pollen out of the air. Plus I didn’t see any reduction in pollen on the local cars during tree pollen season even though it was still pretty dry. You can see a steady decadal average around 50.00” in NYC since the 1970s. It’s the 1960s which really stood out for drought. It was rated as a 500 year drought from a long tree rings study from the Catskills down to closer to NYC. Over the last year smaller watershed systems such as up here in CT and NJ saw a drop in their reservoir levels. Some close to the Jersey Shore were near record low levels since they were established. But the Catskills haven’t been as dry as other areas closer to NYC. So NYC hasn’t had any Reservior issues. But some local farmers have been having crop issues with how dry it has been. NYC average decadal rainfall since the 1960s through 2024 1960s…39.74” 1970s….52.32” 1980s…49.46” 1990s….47.19” 2000s…52.14” 2010s….50.76 2020s….51.41”…through 2024

50.84” of rain has been our long term average since 1971 at a place like NYC so it isn’t too much rain. But short term hourly and daily heavy rainfall extremes have been increasing over this period especially since 2003. This has lead to flooding issues. It’s when we get closer to 60”or higher of rain on the year that issues with too much annual rainfall develop. From 1871 to 1970 NYC averaged 42.89” which worked out OK since the climate was so much cooler. Except for the 1960s which had the record low rainfall in the 30s and even 20s with the 500 year drought.

The eastern coordinate needs to be higher so your subtract the 60 from 360 to go with 100W to 300E.

50” inches of rain a year works out to just a little over 4.00” a month which isn’t that wet in a climate as warm as ours has become. My area has been running below 3.00” monthly averaged out over the last year which is too low for a climate this warm. All the vegetation was dried out this summer with the record heat. Plus some areas up here had water restrictions due to the reservoirs running lower than average. Remember, warmer climates require more rain.

I selected custom for the map view and entered the coordinates.

We would get occasional months where some part of the area would get with 10” since 2003. The last month for us was August 2024 and at MPO May 2025. Many spots have been well below 40” over the last 12 months. My area has only had around 32” in the last 12 months which is too dry in this much warmer climate. In the old days we could get away with some drier years since a cooler climate didn’t dry out so quickly during the warm season. Long range precipitation forecasting is very uncertain. So we can’t say based off one year that the wet pattern since 2003 has shifted. But the current dry pattern since September 2024 has been defined by storms underperforming model forecasts like we are seeing today. We will know that this drought is over when and if the storms start beating model expectations. It will probably lead to someone getting near or over 10” on the month and repeated very wet months. Since in the warmer climate we need something closer to 50” due to the much warmer summers drying things out very quickly.

I think the drought is more about what is happening in Canada than the Atlantic Ocean. We have been seeing these record ridges setting up across Canada leading to dry conditions working down to the south under the ridge. The Atlantic is currently near record warm levels just behind 2023 and 2024.

Another case of the record heat missing to our north. So Massena was able to tie their October record of 4 days reaching 80° or higher. Their average max this month is +7.1° with the min at 0.0°. RECORD REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 141 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2025 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT MASSENA NY... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 82 DEGREES WAS SET AT MASSENA NY ON 10/19/25. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 81 DEGREES SET IN 2007. WEATHER RECORDS FOR MASSENA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (KMSS) IN NY DATE BACK TO 1949. && ALL CLIMATE DATA ARE CONSIDERED PRELIMINARY UNTIL REVIEWED BY THE NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION (NCEI). Time Series Summary for MASSENA INTL AP, NY - Month of Oct Number of 80° days Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2025 4 12 - 2023 4 0 3 2005 3 0

Yeah, we did get the stronger -WPO in February. But the Pacific Jet undercut it leading to the stronger Southeast ridge and Great Lakes storm track. Our last solid winter month from ACY to BOS was January 2022 which featured a -2.1 WPO and a +TNH. The +TNH last January had interference from the Pacific Jet. So the heights in the WPO region were much lower due to the Pacific Jet sending a stream of disturbances into the region lowering heights. So the WPO finished January +0.2. Getting a -WPO and +TNH during the same month been a challenge with the faster Pacific Jet. Would like to see if we could at least pull off that feat at least one month in the coming years potentially allowing more of benchmark track over that month like we saw briefly for January 2022. That month the Pacific Jet was able to back off with the great snows from ACY to ISP to BOS.

That was a once in 700 year track. So most times systems develop to our south exit ENE. If the system is too far OTS, then we won’t even get much moisture. Ideally, you want it far enough west of Bermuda so when it recurves the system in the Great Lakes taps some tropical moisture. Our main issue since September 2024 has been a lack of tropical moisture. Prior to this we had many tropical systems going into the Gulf or Southeast and weakening they tracked north. This is how we got so many deluges in recent years. But now we get these weaker Northern Stream disturbances which can’t pick up much moisture. Canada has been in drought also. So this drought which began in September 2024 has continued. It probably won’t end until someone in the area gets a 10.00” precipitation month followed by numerous above average precipitation months. This is how our past dry patterns have ended Even last winter we got normal precipitation in December and February with a dry January. So with the exception of last May near MPO, all our months have been either just average or below average precipitation which perpetuated the drought.

Wonder if we can actually tap some tropical moisture later in the month? We haven’t been able to do this in a while. Probably just have wait and see what comes of the potential Western Caribbean development.

This is clearly a top down warming process. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/ocean_briefing_gif/global_ocean_monitoring_current.pdf

Even warmer than the previous record at this time back in 2022.

It’s a new pattern which just developed in the last decade. Record ridging and sunshine over the WPAC leading to these record SSTs. So once Siberia begins getting cold in the fall a strong temperature gradient develops driving the much faster Pacific Jet. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/ocean_briefing_gif/global_ocean_monitoring_current.pdf

It’s the much stronger North Pacific Jet stream since 2018-2019 leading to the dominant Great Lakes cutter, I-78 to I-84 hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks. So the DC to Philly corridor has had their lowest 7 year combined snowfall on record. Only a brief break in this pattern during 20-21 and January 22. January 22 was the last winter month with well above average snow and cold for our area. The 4th chart below is the storm tracks for last winter which lead to the much below average snowfall again. On the 11 days that .25” of precipitation fell in NYC we had a strong Southeast ridge and an average temperature of 41.0”. Fastest 7 year North Pacific Jet stream on record Warm storm tracks from last winter with a strong Southeast ridge on the 11 days that .25 of precipitation fell

March during the 2020s has been 3.8° warmer than the 2010s at a spot like NYC. So it has been too warm for much snow in March this decade. It’s more like an early spring month now than a late winter one we had during the 2010s. March Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 46.5 46.5 2025 46.9 46.9 2024 48.1 48.1 2023 44.6 44.6 2022 45.3 45.3 2021 45.8 45.8 2020 48.0 48.0 March Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 42.7 42.7 2019 41.7 41.7 2018 40.1 40.1 2017 39.2 39.2 2016 48.9 48.9 2015 38.1 38.1 2014 37.7 37.7 2013 40.1 40.1 2012 50.9 50.9 2011 42.3 42.3 2010 48.2 48.2 March Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.1 0.1 2025 0.0 0.0 2024 T T 2023 0.1 0.1 2022 0.4 0.4 2021 T T 2020 T T March Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 6.0 6.0 2019 10.4 10.4 2018 11.6 11.6 2017 9.7 9.7 2016 0.9 0.9 2015 18.6 18.6 2014 0.1 0.1 2013 7.3 7.3 2012 0.0 0.0 2011 1.0 1.0 2010 T T

October is one of our fastest warming months for all the stations in our climate division since 1981. Our area has been warming at 1.1° per decade in October along with January. May and November are the slowest warming months at 0.4° and 0.3° per decade.

Our climate is warming very quickly across all the seasons. But it’s an uneven process so that some months are warming faster than others. Most people that don’t follow the weather and climate as closely as we do tend to normalize the warmer climate and more extreme weather in only 2-7 years.

This was the strongest North Pacific Jet on record for a 7 year period from 2019 to 2025. You can see how much stronger it was than earlier defined intervals. Very extensive area from Asia to North America from 30N to 75N.