bluewave

We had a big run of 0° and below readings from 1976 to 1985 around NYC and Long Island. Monthly Data for January 1976 for NY COASTAL Climate Division Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN -4 PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP -2 NEW YORK BOTANICAL GARDEN COOP -2 DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP -2 GREENPORT POWER HOUSE COOP -2 WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP -1 MINEOLA COOP -1 NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN -1 RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP -1 BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 0 NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 0 ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 0 SETAUKET STRONG COOP 0 NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 1 NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP 1 SCARSDALE COOP 1 MONTAUK COOP 2 JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 2 LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 3 Monthly Data for January 1977 for NY COASTAL Climate Division Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN -5 NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP -3 PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP -2 NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN -2 SCARSDALE COOP -2 DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP -2 MONTAUK COOP -2 NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP -1 LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN -1 JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN -1 WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 0 ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 0 BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 1 MINEOLA COOP 1 NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP 1 SETAUKET STRONG COOP 2 RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 3 GREENPORT POWER HOUSE COOP 5 Monthly Data for February 1979 for NY COASTAL Climate Division Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. SCARSDALE COOP -14 WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN -10 PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP -6 ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN -6 BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP -5 VANDERBILT MUSEUM COOP -3 DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP -3 WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP -1 SETAUKET STRONG COOP -1 RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP -1 GREENPORT POWER HOUSE COOP -1 NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 0 MINEOLA COOP 0 LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 0 NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 0 NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 1 MONTAUK COOP 1 NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP 2 JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 2 Monthly Data for December 1980 for NY COASTAL Climate Division Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP -7 GREENPORT POWER HOUSE COOP -7 BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP -5 WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN -5 DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP -4 SCARSDALE COOP -3 SETAUKET STRONG COOP -2 NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP -1 NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP -1 WESTBURY COOP -1 LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN -1 NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN -1 VANDERBILT MUSEUM COOP -1 PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP 0 RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 0 WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 3 MINEOLA COOP 3 JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 3 ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 4 Monthly Data for January 1981 for NY COASTAL Climate Division Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP -11 SCARSDALE COOP -8 WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN -5 ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN -4 DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP -2 GREENPORT POWER HOUSE COOP -2 WESTBURY COOP -1 SETAUKET STRONG COOP -1 NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 0 WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 0 VANDERBILT MUSEUM COOP 0 RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 0 BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 1 LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 1 NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 2 NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 2 NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP 3 MINEOLA COOP 5 JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 5 Monthly Data for January 1982 for NY COASTAL Climate Division Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP -10 PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP -10 SCARSDALE COOP -8 RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP -8 WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN -8 WESTBURY COOP -7 DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP -5 NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP -4 VANDERBILT MUSEUM COOP -4 SETAUKET STRONG COOP -4 NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP -2 ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN -2 LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN -1 JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN -1 NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP 0 NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 0 WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 1 GREENPORT POWER HOUSE COOP 1 MINEOLA COOP 4 Monthly Data for December 1983 for NY COASTAL Climate Division Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. MINEOLA COOP -1 PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP 1 DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 1 NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 2 WESTBURY COOP 2 SCARSDALE COOP 2 WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 2 JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 2 NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 3 NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP 3 ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 3 LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 3 NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 4 VANDERBILT MUSEUM COOP 4 BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 5 GREENPORT POWER HOUSE COOP 5 WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 6 SETAUKET STRONG COOP 6 RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 6 Monthly Data for January 1984 for NY COASTAL Climate Division Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP -13 BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP -11 SCARSDALE COOP -10 ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN -7 WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN -6 RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP -6 GREENPORT POWER HOUSE COOP -6 WESTBURY COOP -5 SETAUKET STRONG COOP -4 DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP -1 NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 0 WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 1 MINEOLA COOP 1 VANDERBILT MUSEUM COOP 5 LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 6 JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 7 NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 7 NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 8 Monthly Data for January 1985 for NY COASTAL Climate Division Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP -5 SCARSDALE COOP -5 DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP -5 NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP -4 WESTBURY COOP -4 WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN -4 WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP -3 PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP -3 LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN -3 NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN -2 VANDERBILT MUSEUM COOP -2 JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN -2 ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN -1 BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 0 SETAUKET STRONG COOP 0 RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 0

It was actually January 1984 which was colder in some spots than 1985. Monthly Data for January 1984 for New Jersey Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP -24 SUSSEX 1 NW COOP -21 NEWTON COOP -20 INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP -18 FLEMINGTON 5 NNW COOP -18 PEMBERTON COOP -17 LAKEHURST NAS WBAN -16 EWING 3 WNW COOP -16 SOMERVILLE 4 NW COOP -16 HIGH POINT PARK COOP -16 Trenton Area ThreadEx -16 CANOE BROOK COOP -15 LONG VALLEY COOP -15 BOONTON 1 SE COOP -15 MORRIS PLAINS 1 W COOP -14 WOODSTOWN PITTSGROV 4E COOP -13 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP -13 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx -13 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP -12 BELVIDERE BRIDGE COOP -12 ESTELL MANOR COOP -12 Belvidere Area ThreadEx -12 LAMBERTVILLE COOP -11 RINGWOOD COOP -11 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP -10 ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG COOP -10 LITTLE FALLS COOP -10

Yeah, the coldest winter of the 2020s so far feels much colder with the very strong winds and how warm the recent winters were. But so far it’s warmer than all the other previous coldest winters of past decades. New Brunswick is currently at -1.4° since December 1st. New Brunswick coldest winters in each decade..decadal winter average..decadal low 2020s….32.2°…..36.1°…..6° 2010s…..29.5°…..34.1°….-2° 2000s….29.0°…..33.4°…-2° 1990s….28.3°…..33.7°….-5° 1980s….29.3°……31.6°….-13° 1970s…..26.4°……31.1°…..-7°

Yeah, strongest average gusts on record for JFK since January 1st made it feel much colder. My guess is that the record downslope component at JFK is why they were locally warmer than the other sites. Since dowslope flow off the moraine is always warmest closer to JFK. Plus the winds staying up at night prevented them from the radiational cooling they usually get relative to the other nearby city sites. Data for December 1, 2024 through February 22, 2025 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY MONTAUK AIRPORT WBAN 38.1 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 35.8 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 35.0 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 34.2 NY PORT AUTH DOWNTN MANHATTAN WALL ST HEL ICAO 34.2 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 34.1 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 33.6 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 33.5 CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN 33.4 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 33.1 NY ORIENT POINT STATE PARK COOP 33.1 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 33.0 NY SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN 33.0

The total winter hours below freezing have been steadily decreasing in NJ. This winter has been about as average as you can get. So we can say that the hourly temperatures closely track the daily highs, lows, and averages. 5 out of the 10 lowest total hours below freezing have occurred in the last decade. 8 out of the 10 highest years occurred prior to 2000. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=159&network=NJ_ASOS&zstation=EWR&var=tmpf&dir=below&thres=32&month=winter&sdate=1001&edate=0430&year=2025&syear=1920&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

By that metric JFK hasn’t had much cold this winter as the 7 highs at or below 32° weren’t that much more than the last two winters. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Oct through Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending number of High temperatures at or below 32° 2024-2025 7 221 2023-2024 5 0 2022-2023 4 0 2021-2022 14 0 2020-2021 10 0 2019-2020 2 0 2018-2019 10 0 2017-2018 21 0 2016-2017 9 0 2015-2016 9 0 2014-2015 23 0 2013-2014 27 0 2012-2013 10 0 2011-2012 4 0 2010-2011 18 0 2009-2010 17 0 2008-2009 21 0 2007-2008 5 0 2006-2007 18 0 2005-2006 9 0 2004-2005 19 0 2003-2004 25 0 2002-2003 28 0 2001-2002 1 0 2000-2001 19 0 1999-2000 21 0 1998-1999 14 0 1997-1998 3 0 1996-1997 10 0 1995-1996 22 0 1994-1995 9 0 1993-1994 27 0

I suspect our snowfall peaked in 17-18 and this is just par for the course post peak. State College had their peak in 03-04 and then began a decline. But they were still able to have some good years in the mix from time to time. But noting like the 1960s to early 2000s. Almost like an extended version of our 09-10 to 17-18. Hopefully, we can return to at least occasional benchmark storms and not have the extended lack of favorable storm tracks like State College has experienced.

This may be one of the few times a gradient pattern has combined with a suppression pattern to produce that snow hole from PA into our area. In the old days we would usually get one or the other. Now we are getting cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks all within a few days of each other.

Yeah, this was the first time at spots like Newark that the average wind gusts have been over 30 mph since January 1st. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=140&network=NJ_ASOS&station=EWR&syear=1928&sday=0101&eday=0220&varname=avg_wind_gust&w=none&thres=30&year=2025&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

This was a great example of gradient patterns favoring areas to our north.

Only if you focus on coastal sections like JFK where the sea breezes have been dominating over the last decade. New Jersey has had multiple seasons with over 40 days reaching 90°. Plus they nearly got to 10 days reaching 100° back in 2022 if the dry pattern lasted a little longer.

Because a recent 10 year average would mask the warming even more since the base state is so much higher than it used to be. January was only considered cold here since we moved the goal posts to make it easier to get a colder month. If we left the original climo in place, then it would have been a warmer January in the Northeast.

30 year temperature averages began to be used when we had a stable climate. So you could look at a departure and know whether it was actually warmer or colder. In a rapidly warming climate each 10 year update masks the warming process. This is why rankings make more sense. It takes larger and larger cold departures to get a top 10 or top 20 coldest month and a smaller positive departure for a top 10 or top 20 warmest month. It’s why the Northeast has had over 50 top 10 warmest months since 2010 and only 1 top 10 coldest. By just looking at the 1991-2020 departures you would miss this key distinction. So we should probably just use the 1951-1980 base period in order for the rankings to match the departures like NASA does.

We really needed the much warmer 1991-2020 climate normals in order to finally get a colder winter across the area. The 7 station average is currently -0.9° since December 1st. In the old days this would have been an average winter to slightly warmer than average. Reminds me of the cooler summers in recent years which would have been considered a little warmer than the older era climate normals. EWR….-0.7° NYC….-1.8° LGA….-1.6° JFK…..+0.8° HPN…..-1.2° BDR…..-1.2° ISP……-0.8° AVG….-0.9°

Atmosphere trying to shift into El Niño mode as near record WWBs continue over the EPAC.

Last February was a much snowier one for spots like New Brunswick even though it was 5° warmer. The Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet was able to relax for 5 days when we had the record STJ with the El Niño. But the part of the area that really did well was pretty limited. Climatological Data for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) - February 2025 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Sum 793 497 - - 651 0 3.00 4.1 - Average 39.7 24.9 32.3 -0.3 - - - - 0.3 Normal 42.0 23.3 32.6 - 648 0 2.09 6.9 2025-02-01 49 34 41.5 10.2 23 0 0.12 0.0 0 2025-02-02 38 17 27.5 -3.9 37 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-02-03 32 18 25.0 -6.5 40 0 T T 0 2025-02-04 51 26 38.5 6.9 26 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-02-05 49 27 38.0 6.3 27 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-02-06 37 27 32.0 0.1 33 0 0.26 0.2 T 2025-02-07 40 33 36.5 4.5 28 0 0.15 0.0 0 2025-02-08 44 23 33.5 1.4 31 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-02-09 35 27 31.0 -1.3 34 0 0.67 1.2 2 2025-02-10 37 27 32.0 -0.4 33 0 0.03 0.0 1 2025-02-11 39 20 29.5 -3.1 35 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-02-12 36 25 30.5 -2.3 34 0 0.23 1.7 2 2025-02-13 39 31 35.0 2.1 30 0 0.20 0.0 0 2025-02-14 47 29 38.0 4.9 27 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-02-15 37 24 30.5 -2.8 34 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-02-16 37 31 34.0 0.5 31 0 0.74 1.0 0 2025-02-17 47 29 38.0 4.3 27 0 0.60 0.0 0 2025-02-18 37 19 28.0 -5.9 37 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-02-19 29 15 22.0 -12.1 43 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-02-20 33 15 24.0 -10.3 41 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-02-21 M M M M M M M M M 2025-02-22 M M M M M M M M M 2025-02-23 M M M M M M M M M 2025-02-24 M M M M M M M M M 2025-02-25 M M M M M M M M M 2025-02-26 M M M M M M M M M 2025-02-27 M M M M M M M M M 2025-02-28 M M M M M M M M M Climatological Data for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) - February 2024 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Sum 1381 820 - - 777 0 1.90 16.0 - Average 47.6 28.3 37.9 4.5 - - - - 0.9 Normal 42.8 24.0 33.4 - 885 0 2.97 9.3 2024-02-01 40 29 34.5 3.2 30 0 0.00 0.0 0 2024-02-02 48 30 39.0 7.6 26 0 0.12 0.0 0 2024-02-03 44 32 38.0 6.5 27 0 0.08 0.0 0 2024-02-04 47 27 37.0 5.4 28 0 0.00 0.0 0 2024-02-05 49 25 37.0 5.3 28 0 0.00 0.0 0 2024-02-06 48 23 35.5 3.6 29 0 0.00 0.0 0 2024-02-07 45 24 34.5 2.5 30 0 0.00 0.0 0 2024-02-08 49 26 37.5 5.4 27 0 0.00 0.0 0 2024-02-09 56 30 43.0 10.7 22 0 0.00 0.0 0 2024-02-10 60 37 48.5 16.1 16 0 0.00 0.0 0 2024-02-11 59 41 50.0 17.4 15 0 0.00 0.0 0 2024-02-12 48 33 40.5 7.7 24 0 0.00 0.0 0 2024-02-13 48 32 40.0 7.1 25 0 0.62 4.0 4 2024-02-14 43 30 36.5 3.4 28 0 0.14 1.0 2 2024-02-15 38 23 30.5 -2.8 34 0 0.00 0.0 2 2024-02-16 42 26 34.0 0.5 31 0 0.00 0.0 1 2024-02-17 44 30 37.0 3.3 28 0 0.38 11.0 11 2024-02-18 37 18 27.5 -6.4 37 0 T T 3 2024-02-19 42 24 33.0 -1.1 32 0 0.00 0.0 2 2024-02-20 43 23 33.0 -1.3 32 0 0.00 0.0 1 2024-02-21 41 20 30.5 -4.0 34 0 0.00 0.0 0 2024-02-22 43 23 33.0 -1.7 32 0 0.00 0.0 0 2024-02-23 50 29 39.5 4.5 25 0 0.14 0.0 0 2024-02-24 48 36 42.0 6.8 23 0 0.01 0.0 0 2024-02-25 45 20 32.5 -2.9 32 0 0.00 0.0 0 2024-02-26 42 25 33.5 -2.2 31 0 0.00 0.0 0 2024-02-27 56 32 44.0 8.1 21 0 0.00 0.0 0 2024-02-28 63 42 52.5 16.3 12 0 0.21 0.0 0 2024-02-29 63 30 46.5 10.2 18 0 0.20 0.0 0

Boston only had 3 seasons with below 10” of snow. So far they have had 3 top 10 lowest snowfall seasons during the 2020s. They had less snow the last 4 seasons combined than in 14-15. Time Series Summary for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx) - Oct through Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1936-1937 9.0 0 2 2011-2012 9.3 0 3 2023-2024 9.8 0 4 1972-1973 10.3 0 5 2022-2023 12.4 0 6 1979-1980 12.7 0 7 1994-1995 14.9 0 8 2001-2002 15.1 0 9 1988-1989 15.5 0 10 2019-2020 15.8 0

This turned out to be a reversion to the 2020s snowfall mean from Philly up to Boston. So this season was very close to average for the 2020s. A big win for spots like Philly that avoided another under 1” season. NYC was able to miss having another season under 10”. And Boston got close to 30” instead of matching some of the lower under 15” seasons in recent years. Monthly Total Snowfall for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean T T 1.2 4.7 3.6 0.1 0.0 9.4 2024-2025 0.0 T 0.3 4.6 3.1 M M 8.0 2023-2024 0.0 T T 8.0 3.2 0.0 0.0 11.2 2022-2023 T 0.0 T T 0.3 T 0.0 0.3 2021-2022 0.0 0.0 T 12.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 12.9 2020-2021 0.0 0.0 6.6 3.0 14.3 0.0 0.0 23.9 2019-2020 0.0 T 0.1 0.2 T 0.0 0.0 0.3 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.0 T 2.7 4.2 7.0 0.1 T 13.9 2024-2025 0.0 0.0 2.8 3.0 6.7 M M 12.5 2023-2024 0.0 T T 2.3 5.2 T 0.0 7.5 2022-2023 0.0 0.0 T T 2.2 0.1 0.0 2.3 2021-2022 0.0 T 0.2 15.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 17.9 2020-2021 0.0 0.0 10.5 2.1 26.0 T 0.0 38.6 2019-2020 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.3 T T T 4.8 Monthly Total Snowfall for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.7 T 5.3 11.5 8.2 0.6 0.2 26.5 2024-2025 0.0 0.0 5.7 8.2 14.2 M M 28.1 2023-2024 0.0 T 0.2 9.0 0.5 T 0.1 9.8 2022-2023 0.0 T 1.0 6.9 3.6 0.9 0.0 12.4 2021-2022 0.0 T 0.4 36.2 15.3 2.1 T 54.0 2020-2021 4.3 T 13.0 5.8 15.3 0.1 0.1 38.6 2019-2020 0.0 T 11.5 3.1 0.5 T 0.7 15.8

Yeah, the variability has become more extreme. Just look at the wild swings in the AO index. And that is just one area of the world. The new variation of getting a 970 mb cutter during a -5 -AO linking up with the Southeast Ridge was a new type of pattern variability. This variation has become more common during the 2020s.

What seems to have become permanent since around 2010 has been these stuck weather patterns for extended periods of time. But the variability that you mention can perhaps be related to interactions with other underlying patterns. So that we have been varying which patterns have been getting stuck and for how long before shifting to a new stuck pattern. One of the most impressive stuck weather patterns from the 09-10 winter through March 2018 was the phenomenal benchmark KU snowstorm pattern. With numerous snowfall records being set over the 9 year period. Our new warmer summer pattern emerged in 2010 leading to to 12 out of 15 warmer to record warm summers. The shift to warmer winters began in 15-16 with 9 out of the last 10 winters here running warmer to record warm. While this was our first colder winter using the new 91-20 climate normals, it really wasn’t that cold compared to winters like 13-14, 14-15, 10-11, and 02-03. So we can say this probably would have been a much colder winter in an earlier era. The faster Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet emerged back in 18-19 and continues to this day with the record cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks. I have a ton of respect for the variability you mention since I have no idea how much longer this most recent stuck storm track pattern will persist. But it could take a shift in the marine heatwave configuration in coming years to ultimately attempt to shift back to at least an occasional benchmark snowstorm track. But it will be interesting to see how things turn out.

There has been an interesting phenomenon happening with the modeling since 18-19. Some models have been showing unrealistic snowfall outcomes longer range given the jet dynamics which have been in place. But the storm tracks once under 120 and 72 hrs conformed to the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks. So my guess is that the new model bias is showing too little Pacific interference or disruption longer range which becomes evident once the storm comes into closer range. A faster Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet can lead to shortwave spacing issues like we have this week. So the shorter term models will be able to see the shortwave behind acting as a kicker. But this distinction isn’t clear longer range leading to false positive snowfall outcomes. Then when we do have enough wavelength spacing like this past weekend, a suppressed or hugger initial long range forecast can become a cutter in the short range. Other times we had snowier long range forecast outcomes which had a slightly stronger Southeast Ridge like models were snowing earlier this month. This is why the EPS 240 to 360 hr snow means kept showing double digit totals for NYC which didn’t verify. The gradient drifted about 30 to 50 miles further north over time since the faster flow and warm water feedback off the East Coast worked in tandem. This has been a pretty big departure from the modeling from 2010 to 2018. Now we all know that there were false positive long range snowfall outcomes during this era. But there were also several successful long range modeling events. We can all remember the Euro control run from a week out nailing the 950mb benchmark blizzard in January 2018. And there were other examples of the models correctly forecasting longer range snowstorms. The Pacific Jet was much weaker and we had we had a well established benchmark storm track for the better part of 9 seasons. So these days it’s pretty much become the norm that the benchmark storm tracks only show up days 6-10 and 11-15 but don’t make it into the under 120 hr range once the full impact of the Pacific Jet comes into better focus. So models showing benchmark tracks beyond 120 hrs need to be taken with a grain of salt. But if this multiyear storm tracks is to end, it will have to occur in the short range in order to be believed.

The issue has been the storm tracks which have been favoring the higher elevations and LES zones.

Those were better periods for snowfall around NYC Metro than the last 7 season stretch here. We are currently on pace for a new 10 year snowfall low average across the area if we don’t get a big increase over the next 3 seasons. This current 7 year lower running snowfall average began in 18-19. The past slumps were followed by 50” seasons boosting the totals back up in the following years. But reaching such heavy totals in recent years has been a significant challenge. So we are going to need a big shift back to benchmark storm tracks in the coming seasons in order to avoid the least snowy calendar decade and 10 year running mean. Lowest 10 year averages and ending year and current 7 year average since 18-19 EWR…..1977……19.4”…….2025….17.3” NYC…..1993……18.8”…….2025….14.9” LGA…..1977…….17.7”……..2025….16.0” JFK…..1993….…18.0”…….2025…..14.5” ISP……1995…….19.3”……..2025…..16.8”

Those pattern specifics were are direct outcome of the record air and SSTs this winter across the globe. I understand that you are using a linear approach in your analysis of the winter pattern across the Northern Hemisphere. But when SST thresholds are crossed we can see non-linear outcomes. Such that a few tenths of a of degree temperature shift in one SST area can cause a regional shift of a much greater magnitude in other areas. Changing the structure of the 500mb pattern by what seems like a small amount along with a faster Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet can lead to non-linear outcomes. Such that it can shift what would have been a 25” to 50”or greater snowfall season in NYC to one under 20” on the season. So your marginal impact on snowfall statement could work under a linear understanding but not if we have experienced threshold effects acting as a force multiplier. This is an interesting conversation and I can see how you came to your description and understanding. It could be a small SST difference in a region like the WPAC east of Japan accelerated the Pacific Jet just enough to prevent a benchmark storm track from emerging and lead to the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks. That right there is the difference between a 25” to 50” season and one with under 20” of snowfall. The same can be said for the temperatures. By warming the global temperatures by just a few degrees, our local winter average temperatures could have been 3-5 degrees colder under a similar winter pattern from the 1970s into early 1990s. This would have also meant that the 10° low this winter in NYC could have been a 0 to -2 in that colder era. My take on snowfall averages and distribution is that we have seen a marked shift since the 1960s. The first colder winter regime from the 1960s into early 1990s featured a very stable distribution near the middle of the snowfall range. So that many seasons were in the 19” to 30” range around NYC and the coast. Very few seasons under 15” and over 31”. This all changed since the 1990s with very few 19-30” seasons and many more under 15” and over 31”. So the great outcomes from 09-10 to 17-18 were masking this shift as the climate has continued to warm. Since 18-19 we have been in a much faster Northern Stream of the Pacific regime leading to only one snowy season in spots like NYC in the last 7 seasons. This is directly a function of the warmer winters combined with the lack of benchmark storm tracks. So cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks have dominated. From the 60s into the early 90s we had multiple ways to reach the 19” to 30” snowfall range around NYC. So we didn’t have to exclusively rely on benchmark storm tracks like we have since the 90s. The lack of benchmark storm tracks has resulted in the NYC and other local sites 7 year snowfall averages dropping into the 14” to 18” range. We are going to need a return to BM tracks next several winters for our area to avoid its least snowy decade so soon after our snowiest one during the 2010s. So I am open to possible changes in the Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet in coming winters. But if there isn’t a big shift away from this regime over the next 3-5 winters, then it’s possible it will become permanent or at least semi permanent. So 40/70 is mischaracterizing my position on the future. As I am always open to new data should it present itself in the future. I for one hope we can at least introduce some degree of a return to benchmark tracks in the future if only a weaker reflection of the 09-10 to 17-18 era.

I think part of your resistance to seeing the new reality of our 2020s climate is that you really enjoyed the winters during the much colder climate area. We both share the same sentiment. But not seeing the new parameters of the situation will hurt you forecast abilities in the long range by not adjusting to current regime.