bluewave

It’s tough to determine that NYC would be cooler on calm clear nights if the sensors were in a clearing instead of under the trees. Since the park is in the middle of one of the strongest heat islands in the country like LGA. So that makes the tree effects on radiational cooling nights harder to determine. We do know that the winter low temperature is warming a little slower than LGA. Plus LGA is often a few degrees warmer for the lows. So the lows have been warming at a faster rate at LGA than NYC. LGA is right on the water which keeps it warmer during the winter also. If we look at the average minimum temperatures this past winter with the tree growth vs 1961 with less, LGA is still a little warmer than NYC. So not much of a difference. Even with the lack of trees Central Park wasn’t radiating much better relative to the surrounding stations. The average winter low was still within a degree of LGA. Data for December 1, 2024 through February 28, 2025 mean min temperature Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY MONTAUK AIRPORT WBAN 32.6 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 30.2 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 30.0 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 29.3 NY PORT AUTH DOWNTN MANHATTAN WALL ST HEL ICAO 29.3 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 28.0 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 27.7 NY ORIENT POINT STATE PARK COOP 27.5 Data for December 1, 1961 through February 28, 1962 mean min temperature Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 27.6 NY NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP 27.4 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 27.4 NY NEW YORK FLOYD BENNETT FIELD WBAN 27.2 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 27.1 NY HEMPSTEAD MALVERNE COOP 26.3 NJ JERSEY CITY COOP 26.0 NY MINEOLA COOP 26.0 NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP 25.5 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 25.3 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 25.1

Most spots will finish with another warmer than average month since the warm ups continue to be more impressive than the cooldowns.

None of those storm drains in Brooklyn where the worst flooding occurred were built to handle 1.00” of rain in only 15 minutes. While the spots that got over 2” yesterday wasn’t their heaviest daily rainfall event in recent years, 1 inch of rain in 15 minutes is probably close to the all-time records for the individual spots in an around Crown Heights. https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNYNEWYO1727/table/2025-10-30/2025-10-30/daily 2:54 PM 60.0 °F 59.6 °F 99 % SW 4.4 mph 11.3 mph 29.66 in 0.24 in 1.19 in 0 5w/m² 2:59 PM 60.3 °F 59.9 °F 99 % SW 3.6 mph 8.3 mph 29.65 in 1.44 in 1.41 in 0 9.6w/m² 3:04 PM 60.3 °F 60.0 °F 99 % SSW 5.3 mph 10.1 mph 29.66 in 3.78 in 1.84 in 0 11.8w/m² 3:09 PM 60.3 °F 59.9 °F 99 % SSE 3.7 mph 8.9 mph 29.65 in 4.44 in 2.16 in 0

If we average the rate of the 90° day increase at EWR and LGA starting 30 years before the NYC ASOS was installed under the tree canopy, NYC would have closer to 28-29 days reaching 90° instead of the recent average of near 17-18. NYC had a few days less than EWR from 1961-1990. But a few more days than LGA did. Our recent 16 year stretch since 2010 has had the highest number on 90° days. So it makes sense that EWR to LGA has had a steady increase in 90° days over this period. We can see how the NYC station near the castle was out in the open and not under a canopy of trees from photographs of the site in the decades prior to the 1990s. Now it’s in the deep shade during peak heating hours when the trees are fully leafed out. There could even be a smaller cooling effect during the winter due to the trees and lower sun angle creating a smaller shade effect.

The trend is correct since it incorporates the 30 years before and after the new ASOS was put into the shade in 1995. I have posted a whole series of charts and data showing the issues after the move in other threads in even greater detail. The MIC at Upon NWS office back in the early 2000s admitted as much in several news stories at the time. They had to make big compromises in the integrity of the Central Park record in order to keep the station open after the NWS moved out to Upton in 1993. Placing a thermometer under a tree canopy on sunny days when fully leafed out will result in at least a 2° to 3° cooling during the peak daily heating relative to the temperatures in a nearby clearing like the Great Lawn or other open areas of the park away from the dense wooded area next to the castle.

Yes. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=1220&yr=2025 However, OSPO's ALPW has since shown an increase stemming from Melissa's circulation, especially near and below 700 mb, being drawn northward into NJ and southern NY. The continued addition of this remnant tropical moisture should allow for an increase in rainfall efficiency and locally higher rainfall rate potential into the early evening hours.

Even before that 2nd coldest late December 2017 into early January 2018 period, most areas from Philly to NYC Metro still made it above 55° from the 17th to 25th like every year since 2011. Many of those years the long range models missed that warm up. But once we got past the first week of December, the models played catch up the closer in time we get to the period. Data for December 17, 2017 through December 25, 2017 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Atlantic City Area ThreadEx 61 CAPE MAY 2 NW COOP 61 MILLVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT WBAN 61 ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP WBAN 61 INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP 61 ESTELL MANOR COOP 61 SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 61 HAMMONTON 1 NE COOP 60 ATSION COOP 60 EB FORSYTHE NEW JERSEY RAWS 60 PHILADELPHIA/MT. HOLLY WFO COOP 59 MANASQUAN 1 NW COOP 59 WRIGHTSTOWN COOP 59 PENNSAUKEN 1N COOP 59 Trenton Area ThreadEx 58 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 58 SEABROOK FARMS COOP 58 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 58 TRENTON-MERCER AIRPORT WBAN 58 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 58 Newark Area ThreadEx 57 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 57 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 57 SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 57 TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 56 MARGATE COOP 56 Atlantic City Marina Area ThreadEx 56 ATLANTIC CITY MARINA WBAN 56 WERTSVILLE 4 NE COOP 56 TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 56 HARRISON COOP 56 FLEMINGTON 5 NNW COOP 55 PHILLIPSBURG-EASTON BRIDGE COOP 55 CANOE BROOK COOP 55 Data for December 17, 2017 through December 25, 2017 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. MONTAUK AIRPORT WBAN 57 LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 56 WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP WBAN 56 MOUNT SINAI COOP 56 SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN 56 New York-LGA Area ThreadEx 56 BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 55 FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 55 ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 55 NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 55 RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 55 UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 55 JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 55 Islip Area ThreadEx 55 New York-Kennedy Airport Area ThreadEx 55 New York-Central Park Area ThreadEx 55

Just remember the long range models this time of year through November often show nice looking patterns to start December and try to continue them for the entire month. We saw this last year with the strong -EPO forecast from late November into December which reversed in mid to late December. The models completely underestimated the Pacific Jet and flip to +EPO later in December. The EPS weeklies in early December looked great for the whole month. But they kept underestimating the strength of the Pacific Jet. I was discussing this in the threads last December. This could be the case this year if the MJO slows in phase 6-7 later in November into early December and loops back into the circle before emerging into 4-6 by mid or late December. Just something to watch since we have had warm ups every December since 2011 from 16th to the 25th like clockwork. These periods had convection near the MJO 4-6 phases which weren’t very well forecast in advance. Plus even if the MJO wasn’t too amplified in phases 4-6, it would still shift the pattern warmer than the start of the month. There could be a new seasonality to this since the 2nd half of December has been warming at faster rate than early December. I have been discussing this since 2011. Anthony Masiello also made a post about this for his area last December on one of the social media platforms.

Yeah, we had accumulating snows around the area with the colder storm tracks and background temperatures at the end of October 2008 and 2011. Then the big post Sandy snowstorm in November 2012 and SWFE in November 2018. The best obviously for the whole season was the late November 1995 snow which carried through until early April 1996. Before that the lack of snow following the November 1989 Thanksgiving snowstorm. Plus the earliest October 10, 1979 snows before the low seasonal snows that winter with the big suppression pattern when Virginia did so well.

Our last successful MJO 8 with a cold and snowy benchmark pattern was back in January 2022. This featured the relaxation of the Pacific Jet. As recently as last February the MJO stalled out in Phase 7 before going back into the circle. So the Pacific Jet remained extended near record levels and we got our first -5 SD Greenland block linking up with the Southeast ridge with a big cutter and Toronto record snowstorm. Last February was a west based La Niña with a warm Nino 1+2. During January 2022 we got a stronger east based La Niña when the forcing made into the favorable phase 8. So with how strong the Pacific Jet currently is and it’s only October, would want to see a phase 8 at some point this winter in order to potentially weaken it with such a strong gradient between Siberia and the WPAC to south of the Aleutians. But won’t have any confidence in such an outcome until we get to within the short term. Since the default since February 2022 has been the MJO getting over to 6-7 and heading back into the circle and missing phase 8. Even when the RMM charts went into 8 during March 2023, the Pacific Jet wasn’t able to relax so the storm hugged the coast and the NE higher elevations cashed in instead. March 2023 was also a west based La Niña with warming in Nino 1+2. So even if we can see a phase 8 this winter, it’s no guarantee we will see what happed in January 2022 again as Nino 1+2 has remained warmer than 3.4 into this fall. As the EWBs have been stalling out further west.

Yeah, without the tree growth NYC should be closer to LGA even in October. Notice how much of a difference there had been between when the trees are fully leafed out vs when the leaves drop. Since 90° days are sunny you see the artificial decline more on those days. Fully leafed out No leaves

I would just watch the winds behind the storm since these westerly flow events since last winter seem to be over performing. The high temperatures usually go a few degrees above on these strong westerly flow days. This leads to the low lapse rates being steeper than forecast. Then the winds end up beating guidance. So we could see advisory level winds develop and even a few spots especially east could get close to high wind warning criteria.

Yes since it’s the only station showing a high temperature decline especially on sunny days.

Maybe a sting jet-like feature to watch for on Friday with some 50-60+ wind gusts as the lapse rates really steepen behind the storm especially the northern and eastern sections of the region.

It wasn’t as much. But we need to see the 30 years prior to and after the ASOS getting put under the trees in 1995 for the full 60 year trend to emerge. Since 1995 was the year that NYC changed how they measure temperatures. This is why NYC is the only site with a decline in 90 days since the 1960s. If NYC didn’t have the ASOS in the shade, then their current 15 year October average would be closer to LGA and not the artificially low 59.3°. That mid century period was a warm in October. Which declined later in the century. But the recent 15 year period is the warmest on record. Average October temperatures 1941-1970 EWR…57.4° NYC…58.7° LGA…58.8° 1961-1990 EWR….57.2° NYC….57.5° LGA….57.4° 2010-2024 EWR…59.6° NYC…59.3° LGA….60.9°

The fall temperature pattern across the CONUS and or Canada will usually carry over into winter in some way especially when there is a significant temperature departure in either direction. Sometimes it can be an extreme in either October or November that shows up during the winter either in Canada or the CONUS. A great example of this was the 4th coldest October across the CONUS before the cold and snowy 09-10 winter across the CONUS. Then the record cold and snow in November 2014 especially in the Great Lakes into the East which preceded the cold in January and February of 2015. Then the fall cold in 2018 up in Canada which came before the all-time coldest reading at Rockford, Illinois late in January 2019. Same goes for all the recent record fall warmth prior to the record number of +10 winter departures at spots in the CONUS. We saw this as recently as last winter with the 4th warmest December across the CONUS and stations out West getting near +10 in December following one of our warmest falls across the CONUS. This fall to winter warmth pattern also emerged in other recent years. Plus the really cold winters in our colder climate era of the 1970s like 76-77 began with record cold as early as late August through the fall into the winter. So the relationship isn’t always an even one to one. But when we are seeing extremes of warmth or cold during the fall, then it usually follows in some way during the winter.

This period would be much warmer if it wasn’t for the tree growth. You can see how NYC is the only station which the high temperature has declined especially on the sunny days in October and other fully leafed out months. So in reality like all out other stations the actual high temperature if measured the old way prior to 1995 would have seen a steep rise instead of a slight decline. When we look at period since 1961 covering the 30 years prior to moving the ASOS under the trees in 1995 and the 30 years following we can see what is happening. Notice the lows aren’t affected only the highs especially on the sunny days when the shade effect is greatest.

This was why I pointed out the big Pacific Jet extension a few days ago. Models typically underestimate the warmth following one of these. The CONUS is on track for another very warm fall. This impressive fall warmth has been the norm over the last decade since the big shift warmer with the 2015-2016 super El Niño. Our last colder fall was back in 2014 and occurred just prior to the big temperature jump. Early signs that fall it was going to be a cold and snowy winter in the East. Plus the record snowfall in South Carolina in early November. https://www.weather.gov/cae/november2014climatesummary.html PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 1000 PM EDT FRI DEC 5 2014 ...NOVEMBER 2014 CLIMATE SUMMARY... ...EARLIEST SNOWFALL ON RECORD AT COLUMBIA... ...SOME PARTS OF THE MIDLANDS RECEIVED UP TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE 1ST... ...2ND COLDEST NOVEMBER ON RECORD AT AUGUSTA... ...11TH COLDEST NOVEMBER ON RECORD AT COLUMBIA... ...17TH WETTEST NOVEMBER ON RECORD AT COLUMBIA... ...SEVERAL TEMPERATURE RECORDS EITHER BROKEN OR TIED AT AUGUSTA AND COLUMBIA... ...EL NINO WATCH CONTINUES WITH A WEAK EL NINO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP... THE THEME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER WAS COLD AND WET...EVEN WHITE. THE MONTH STARTED OFF IN A BIG WAY WITH EARLIEST AND LARGEST SNOW EVENT ON RECORD FOR NOVEMBER. PRIOR TO THIS EVENT...THE EARLIEST SNOWFALL RECORDED IN COLUMBIA OCCURRED ON NOVEMBER 9TH, 1913. ALTHOUGH THE AREA THAT RECEIVED THE GREATEST SNOW AMOUNTS WAS SMALL...AMOUNTS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 INCHES ARE EXTREMELY UNUSUAL. MORE ABOUT THIS EVENT IS BELOW IN THE NOVEMBER EVENTS SECTION. A PERSISTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERED ALONG THE EAST COAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST FOR MUCH OF THE MONTH. THIS PRODUCED RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES DURING THE MONTH AND AT TIMES A STORM TRACK BRINGING WEATHER SYSTEMS OUT OF THE Gulf of America AND TRACKING THEM NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS WAS QUITE A CONTRAST TO THE WARM AND DRY MONTH OF OCTOBER. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT AUGUSTA REGIONAL BUSH FIELD WAS 49.2 DEGREES OR 6.0 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 55.2 DEGREES. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT COLUMBIA METRO AIRPORT WAS 50.5 DEGREES OR 4.3 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 54.8 DEGREES. EVENTS FOR NOVEMBER 2014: NOVEMBER 1ST...A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM MOVED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY THE 1ST. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...YET TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AT THE ONSET WERE WELL ABOVE FREEZING. AS THE SYSTEM MOVED ACROSS THE AREA...THE INTENSE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION WAS ABLE TO COOL THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DOWN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW OCCURRED FROM THE UPSTATE AREA THEN EVENTUALLY TO THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND NORTHERN CSRA. THE SNOW CAME DOWN HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN LEXINGTON COUNTY. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WERE NOT UNCOMMON. THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE MOST SNOW WERE LOCATED FROM WESTERN LEXINGTON COUNTY INTO SALUDA COUNTY...EDGEFIELD COUNTY AND EXTREME NW AIKEN COUNTY. SNOW WAS REPORTED AS FAR WEST AND SOUTH AS LINCOLN COUNTY GA...MCCORMICK COUNTY SC...THE AUGUSTA METRO AREA...BARNWELL COUNTY SC...BAMBERG COUNTY SC...ORANGEBURG COUNTY SC AND EVEN DORCHESTER COUNTY SC. MANY AREAS REPORTED TREES DOWN DUE TO THE HEAVY WET SNOW AND MANY TREES STILL HOLDING MANY OF THEIR LEAVES. IN LEXINGTON COUNTY THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RANGED FROM 2 TO 6 INCHES WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AROUND THE TOWN OF GILBERT WHERE UP TO 6 INCHES FELL. THE HEAVY SNOW BROUGHT DOWN TREES AND POWERLINES...EVEN CLOSING A PORTION OF I-26. IN SALUDA COUNTY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AVERAGED BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES. THE EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED 40 TO 50 TREES DOWN ACROSS THE COUNTY. IN NEWBERRY COUNTY...AIKEN COUNTY AND EDGEFIELD COUNTY...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WERE UP TO 1 INCH IN PLACES. HERE ARE SOME SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM COCORAHS OBSERVERS: SC-LX-93 GILBERT 1.0 SE.............4.3 INCHES SC-LX-22 LEXINGTON 5.9 SW...........4.2 INCHES SC-LX-39 GILBERT 1.2 SSW............3.5 INCHES SC-LX-69 LEXINGTON 3.0 WSW..........3.0 INCHES SC-LX-26 LEXINGTON 3.4 SSE..........1.5 INCHES SC-LX-43 LEXINGTON 1.2 SSW..........1.5 INCHES HERE ARE SOME SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM OUR NWS COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS: BATESBURG (BATS1)...................3.5 INCHES PELION 4 NW (PLNS1).................3.0 INCHES CEDAR CREEK (BLYS1).................1.0 INCHES JOHNSTON 4 SW (JOHS1)...............0.8 INCHES NEWBERRY (NWYS1)....................0.5 INCHES HERE ARE SOME SNOWFALL AMOUNTS VIA EM/PUBLIC/SOCIAL MEDIA: GILBERT.............................6.0 INCHES RED BANK............................4.5 INCHES I-26 MILEMARKER 47..................4.5 INCHES SUMMIT..............................4.0 INCHES SALUDA..............................2.0 INCHES PELION..............................2.0 INCHES LEXINGTON...........................1-2 INCHES ...HISTORICAL NOVEMBER SNOW INFORMATION FOR COLUMBIA... PRIOR TO THIS EVENT THE EARLIEST SNOWFALL ON RECORD FOR COLUMBIA WAS A TRACE OF SNOW THAT FELL ON NOVEMBER 9TH, 1913. THE RECORD SNOWFALL FOR NOVEMBER OCCURRED BACK ON NOVEMBER 28TH, 1912 WHEN 1 INCH OF SNOW WAS OBSERVED. NOVEMBER 19TH...COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLED IN ACROSS THE REGION AND PRODUCED THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON. MANY LOCATIONS FELL INTO THE TEENS. HERE ARE SOME OF THE MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES: 8 E FORT JACKSON...................14 DEGREES 2 ESE SALUDA.......................14 DEGREES CEDAR CREEK NWS COOP (BLYS1).......14 DEGREES 8 SE NEW ELLENTON..................14 DEGREES LANDFILL (RCWINDS).................14 DEGREES BEAR CREEK (RCWINDS)...............14 DEGREES GADSDEN (RCWINDS)..................14 DEGREES 1 NW BLYTHEWOOD....................15 DEGREES 1 SSE WAYNESBORO GA................15 DEGREES 3 SSE RIDGEWAY.....................15 DEGREES 4 NW PELION NWS COOP (PLNS1).......15 DEGREES 2 E CANE SAVANNAH..................15 DEGREES 9 WNW JEFFERSON....................15 DEGREES EASTOVER (RCWINDS).................15 DEGREES

The Central Park ASOS has become covered the dense tree growth since 1995 so we can’t use data prior to that for comparison. Since the highs there have been artificially suppressed. The temperatures in our climate division only saw a gentle increase from 1885 to 1980. Since 1981 we have been rapidly warming at +1.1° per decade. So those earlier climate eras were much colder than the Octobers in recent years have been. From 1895 to 1980 the climate division average of stations was 54.4° during October. During the last decade with all the October record warmth the average has been 58.1°. So October is getting closer to a 60° month.

The Greenland block frequently linked up with the Southeast ridge last winter when it actually counted on the days which .20 or greater of precipitation fell. This is why the snowfall totals were so low from Philly to Boston. The average temperature from Philly to NYC was in the low 40s on the 11 days in the composite below. Way too warm of a storm track for decent snows along the I-95 corridor. The winter average was cooler at close to 35° around NYC. But it only arrived following the storms cutting to our west and closely hugging the I-78 to I-84 corridors. 11 day storm composite from Philly to Boston on the 11 days of heaviest precipitation over .20 with strong Greenland block linkage with the Southeast ridge

What it is feels like is a bit deceptive since October is one of the fastest warming months of the year. So we have been normalizing how warm it has been getting since it only takes a small + departure to rank in the top 15 warmest Octobers. Sussex NJ is currently ranked 8th warmest October through the 28th. White Plains is 12th warmest and Islip is 7th warmest. It would probably make more sense to use an earlier climate era like 1961-1990 or 1951-2000 as a base period so rankings and departures will actually match up. Instead of updating the normals every 10 years in a rapidly warming climate. This frequent updating leads to the false sense that it isn’t warming as fast as it really is and making the departures less relevant unless they are very high. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Oct Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2017 61.9 0 2 2021 61.2 0 3 2007 61.1 0 4 1990 60.9 0 5 1971 59.7 0 6 2023 58.8 0 7 2025 58.6 3 8 1995 58.5 0 9 2024 58.4 0 10 1963 58.3 0 11 2019 57.9 0 - 2013 57.9 0 - 2012 57.9 0

Most stations on track to finish October warmer than average as this is another month with Canada being so warm that areas to our north will finish warmer again relative to the means. POU…..+0.7 FWN….+1.3 PHL…..+1.7 SMQ….+0.3 NBW….+1.5 EWR….+1.7 NYC…..+0.5 LGA……+0.1 JFK……+1.1 HPN…..+2.2 BDR….-0.3 ISP……+2.4

Yes that’s true. All the models except the NAM were too surpassed with the system so the snowfall forecasts from the globals were way too low. We really had an epic run of benchmark storm tracks from 93-94 all the way up to 17-18. Both under -PDO and +PDO regimes. The -PDOs were defined by the cold ring off the West Coast. With the +PDOs by the warm ring. So the Pacific Jet was much weaker during the best seasons for benchmark storm tracks during that era. Since 2018-2019 we have need a new type of -PDO defined more by the warm pool to the east of Japan and south of the Aleutians. This combined with the cold over Siberia leads to a faster Pacific Jet and these three prime storm tracks over the last seven winters leading to the record low snowfall. The last reprieve for us was during January 2022 when a solid MJO 8 lead to a weakening of the Pacific Jet and the snowy benchmark pattern from ACY to ISP and BOS. It was the last time we had both a cold and really snowy month. But it was bookmarked by a very warm December and a milder February and March with little to no snow. I am really hoping we can find some periods in this coming winter and others where we can see at least a brief return to benchmark tracks. But the overall pattern since 2018-2019 has been working against that.