bluewave

Not sure how anyone could come to that conclusion since this is a top down ocean warming process. https://www2.whoi.edu/site/argo/impacts/warming-ocean/

The warm spots topped out in the upper 80s. This delayed first 90° could mean that the warm spots like Newark could avoid a top tier summer for 90° days. The only season following a May with no 90° days to reach 40 days of 90° highs was 1983. But that was a super El Niño and this is a La Niña. If Newark can go on to avoid a very high 90° day count over 40 days, then it would probably mean a very wet and humid summer for us. Since Newark needs a dry summer for a very high number of 90° days. Data for January 1, 2025 through May 22, 2025 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. OCEAN COUNTY AIRPORT WBAN 89 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 88 HARRISON COOP 88 Newark Area ThreadEx 88 TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 87 ESTELL MANOR COOP 87 TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 87 ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP WBAN 86 LONG BRANCH-OAKHURST COOP 86 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 86 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 86 CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 86 BELMAR FARMINGDALE ALLAIRE AP WBAN 86 SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 86 All years at Newark with no 90° days in May Monthly Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2025 0 0 M M M M M 0 2020 0 0 5 17 9 0 0 31 2014 0 0 2 8 2 3 0 15 2009 3 0 0 1 10 0 0 14 2008 0 0 6 11 2 3 0 22 2005 0 0 10 11 12 4 0 37 2003 0 0 5 8 7 0 0 20 1997 0 0 7 10 3 0 0 20 1990 2 0 5 9 9 1 0 26 1989 0 0 4 12 8 3 0 27 1984 0 0 8 6 8 0 0 22 1983 0 0 7 15 11 7 0 40 1982 0 0 1 10 1 0 0 12 1976 2 0 7 2 4 0 0 15 1973 0 0 5 9 12 5 0 31 1972 0 0 0 16 4 1 0 21 1971 0 0 6 7 7 2 0 22 1968 0 0 4 9 9 1 0 23 1967 0 0 5 1 1 0 0 7 1966 0 0 10 14 8 1 0 33 1963 0 0 6 11 3 0 0 20 1961 0 0 4 13 8 9 0 34 1960 1 0 3 2 8 1 0 15 1958 0 0 2 11 6 2 0 21 1954 0 0 5 10 3 0 0 18 1952 0 0 8 17 2 4 0 31 1950 0 0 8 6 3 1 0 18 1946 0 0 5 5 2 0 0 12 1940 0 0 2 11 1 1 0 15 1938 0 0 4 4 9 0 1 18 1935 0 0 1 11 2 0 0 14

The entire Northeast finished at 21st coldest for January 2022. It was the last time we had KU snowstorms from ACY into New England. December 26th through January 8th, 2018 was our last top 10 coldest 2 week period in NYC. It also coincided with the record 950mb benchmark blizzard. But the pattern flipped warm pretty fast in January. So the 2nd coldest December 26 to January 8 period on record couldn’t last long enough for January 2018 to finish in the top 10 for cold.

The key will be how much rain we get in early June. We probably make it back into the 80s between June 1st -10th. But we would probably need to dry out with more sun in order for the warm spots to get their first 90° of the season by June 15th. We are already running late on our first 90° day. First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Minimum 04-07 (2010) 08-08 (2011) 69 Mean 05-18 09-09 113 Maximum 06-17 (2014) 10-02 (2019) 170 2024 05-02 (2024) 90 08-28 (2024) 95 117 2023 04-13 (2023) 92 09-08 (2023) 92 147 2022 05-21 (2022) 95 09-04 (2022) 93 105 2021 05-19 (2021) 91 09-15 (2021) 91 118 2020 06-06 (2020) 91 08-27 (2020) 93 81 2019 05-26 (2019) 90 10-02 (2019) 96 128 2018 05-02 (2018) 90 09-06 (2018) 98 126 2017 05-17 (2017) 92 09-25 (2017) 90 130 2016 05-25 (2016) 91 09-23 (2016) 90 120 2015 05-25 (2015) 90 09-09 (2015) 91 106 2014 06-17 (2014) 91 09-06 (2014) 95 80 2013 05-30 (2013) 93 09-11 (2013) 96 103 2012 05-28 (2012) 91 09-07 (2012) 90 101 2011 05-30 (2011) 92 08-08 (2011) 93 69 2010 04-07 (2010) 92 09-25 (2010) 90 170

The coldest departures have been finding a way to miss the Northeast like with a +PNA in January 2025 and a -PNA in February 2021. Our last top 10 coldest month back in February 2015 was a strong +NAO. But if the cold pools were bigger in January 2025 and February 2021, then the Northeast would have been much colder. February 1979 was one of the lowest February -PNAs at -1.82 and still stands as the coldest 2 week period since the 1960s on Long Island. Minimum 14-Day Mean Avg Temperature for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 11.4 1979-02-06 through 1979-02-19 0 2 11.5 1979-02-07 through 1979-02-20 0 3 11.9 1979-02-05 through 1979-02-18 0 4 12.5 1979-02-08 through 1979-02-21 0 5 13.4 1979-02-04 through 1979-02-17 0 6 13.8 1979-02-09 through 1979-02-22 0 7 14.6 1967-12-31 through 1968-01-13 0 8 14.8 1967-12-30 through 1968-01-12 0 9 15.0 1979-02-03 through 1979-02-16 0 10 15.4 1979-02-10 through 1979-02-23 0

But the normal highs for the for the first week of June are still in the upper 70s.

Too bad this new wettest May on record at MPO wasn’t during the winter and all snow. Time Series Summary for Mount Pocono Area, PA (ThreadEx) - Month of May Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2025 10.92 10 2 1989 10.58 0 3 1942 10.41 0 4 1984 9.16 0 5 1946 8.87 0 6 1919 8.32 0 7 1978 8.03 0 8 1924 7.85 0 9 1948 7.39 0 10 1988 7.33 0

The highs today will be lower than the peak highs we have been getting around the solstice in December.

Shift to warmer as we go from met spring to met summer in June . May 26 to June 2 June 2 to June 9

Yeah, still a stubborn piece of the more expansive earlier drought holding on from SE PA into nearby NJ. But nice improvement overall. Luckily, that drought which peaked last fall and winter moderated quite a bit heading into the warm season.

The storm track through the Great Lakes again greatly reduced the snowfall potential around the NYC Metro and other coastal regions. This is a great storm track for areas away from the coast as was the case with the record snows from Toronto to Montreal. The cold focusing closer to the center of the North American continent has been a repeating theme since the big step up in global temperatures in 2015-2016. My guess is that the shrinking cold pool has been limiting the geographic coverage of these Arctic outbreaks. We haven’t had a top 10 coldest month in the Northeast since February 2015.

These +5 departures will get significantly smaller with this very cool pattern to close out the month.

Yeah, but Philly to NYC Metro would have had issues with the strong easterly flow.

That’s due to you being further north closer to NEPA. SEPA from around Philly into CNJ and SNJ has had less than half the rainfall that areas further north have had. This is why drought conditions closer to I-80 have improved with lingering drought further south. Plus Eastern Long Island has had more rainfall than Newark this month.

Par for the course in recent months as the heaviest rains have been further north and east of NYC leaving lingering drought from Eastern PA into NJ.

This happens every spring once the gradient between Siberia and the WPAC relaxes. So this is the normal seasonal weakening of the Pacific Jet allowing more cutoff lows. But even if this was January there would still be mixing issues near the coast since the primary low cut to the Great Lakes before the coastal got going. This would have been a great snowstorm for the interior regions and ski resorts.We can remember the big Nor’easter back on April 4th last spring. It may also be easier to get the height rises near Iceland in the spring for more NAO dominant blocking due to the North Atlantic Jet also weakening during the spring as the gradient between the Arctic and equator weakens. Recent studies have found the North Atlantic winter jet has been getting faster. 4-4-24 Nor’easter

All our stations have a shot at the new low max record for 5-22. EWR….56° NYC…..54° LGA…..57° JFK……55° ISP……54° BDR….54° HPN….54°

The closest that we got to that was February 2021. It was actually the 19th coldest for the entire CONUS and 9th coldest in the Great Plains. But since the Northern Hemisphere was pretty mild overall, the cold was only able to occupy a narrow portion of the Central CONUS. This is why global temperatures are so important in determining what the range of winter potential here in the CONUS. Less cold means a smaller area will have the cold coverage. This is why the cold was narrowly focused into the Plains and the East Coast was just a little colder than average. If this was the 1970s the cold would have been much more extensive. What may seem like a few tenths to a degree or more globally has very large consequences locally to nationally. This is why we need to know the global to continental patterns in order to know the range of parameters for the winter forecast. The difference between a .250 and .330 batting average to someone that doesn’t follow baseball may seem trivial. But it’s the difference between an average hitter and a baseball leading batting average. Some would say that even though the winters are much warmer these days, what’s the difference since even in a warm winter I still need a coat and gloves. While the 2023-2024 winter was the warmest since 1895 in Michigan at 30.5°, it still felt cold outside. This average was still colder than every NYC winter since the 1970s. A colder winter climate like Michigan will always have more leeway. But where many of us live near the East Coast is along the margins as we warm. So a small shift in storm tracks on a global scale from just SE of I-95 near the Benchmark to west of the big cities and further into the Great Lakes makes a world of difference for our sensible weather.

Just the late May patterns in recent years as May 1st through 20th has been the warmest on record for spots like JFK and ISP at +5.1° and +5.0° These briefly cooler patterns are a nice reprieve from the wall to wall warmth we usually experience. The warm rebound following the cool periods has usually been more impressive. So we could quickly shift back to warm in early June with the first 90° potential of the season at the warm spots. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2025-05-20 64.0 0 2 2015-05-20 63.1 0 3 1979-05-20 63.0 0 4 1991-05-20 62.4 0 5 1982-05-20 62.2 0 6 2001-05-20 62.0 0 7 2018-05-20 61.8 0 - 2004-05-20 61.8 0 - 2000-05-20 61.8 0 - 1993-05-20 61.8 0 - 1949-05-20 61.8 0 8 1964-05-20 61.6 0 9 2014-05-20 61.5 0 - 1985-05-20 61.5 0 10 1960-05-20 61.2 1 - 1953-05-20 61.2 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2025-05-20 62.9 0 2 2015-05-20 61.7 0 3 2018-05-20 60.8 0 - 2014-05-20 60.8 0 5 2001-05-20 60.7 0 6 1993-05-20 60.6 0 7 1975-05-20 60.5 1 8 2000-05-20 60.3 0 9 1991-05-20 59.9 0 - 1979-05-20 59.9 0 10 2004-05-20 59.8 0 11 1982-05-20 59.6 0

Probably the last higher elevation snow potential for the season.

This end of May cool down has become a repeating feature over the last 10-15 years.

Yeah, in the old days I would have agreed with you. But after we saw how the WPAC completely overpowered that weak El Niño in 2018 -2019, I have my doubts that a weak El Niño could work with this Pacific SST configuration. At least January 2019 was nice for the cold fans in the Midwest with the record cold near Chicago. But DJF was a real dud for snowfall around NYC with the La Niña background pattern and nearly no snowfall over those 3 months. Plus the weak modoki El Niño signature in 2019-2020 that was overshadowed by the record IOD supercharging the SPV. But at least we got some El Niño backloading with the record May snows. Unfortunately, we needed that storm track much earlier in the spring in order to really produce.

You have to wonder how much the EPAC needs to warm in order to offset the warming in the WPAC. While 2023-2024 was the warmest winter on record across the CONUS, at least we had that great record breaking STJ in February with the El Niño. That was a nice snowstorm in a narrow zone between NYC and Philly. Unfortunately, it didn’t extend very far from this region since it was more of a mesoscale IVT feature. My attitude is that I would much rather roll the dice with a strong El Niño and STJ influence no matter how warm to just get the storm track further south. Heck, even in March 1998 we had a better snowstorm than we have seen in recent years even though it was also a very mild winter. This persistent Niña background since 2018-2019 has shifted the storm track too far north for many of us. Monthly Data for March 1998 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W COOP 9.0 NJ GREENWOOD LAKE COOP 8.5 NY WEST POINT COOP 8.0 NY WALDEN 1 ESE COOP 6.5 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 6.1 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 6.0 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 5.0 NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 4.8 NJ RINGWOOD COOP 4.8 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 4.7 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 4.5 NJ HARRISON COOP 4.5 NY WEST NYACK COOP 4.5 NY MINEOLA 1 NE COOP 4.2 NJ MIDLAND PARK COOP 4.0 CT DANBURY COOP 4.0

Nothing is about to eat us…LOL. Most people off these forums like milder and less snowy winters. This is why most people are moving to the sunbelt instead of to the cooler and snowier spots like Marquette and Caribou. I point out the changes in the Pacific Jet for the very reason that I enjoy colder and snowier weather. So in order to understand how we could potentially change up this pattern is key for winter weather fans. We have to change the Pacific side and Southeast Ridge trends in order to bring back some great winter weather here. I grew up in the 70s and had to wait at the bus stop during those little ice age throwback winters. Also fond memories of the Great 1980s into early 1990s Arctic outbreaks. So I am more a fan of cooler climates than ones that have become much warmer. I have been trying to think how we could change up the Pacific in order to bring back more of a STJ influence. Would probably involve a very potent El Niño that would be very warm. But I am fine with winter warmth provided there are great snowstorms like in 15-16, 16-17, 17-18, and 20-21.

I agree with you that the 500 mb pattern in February was actually -PNA. But it was also -PNA in February 2014 with lower heights in the PNA region when we had around 30” inches of snow that month in NYC. The main difference was that the Southeast Ridge and Pacific Jet weren’t factors back in 2014 like they have become today. That big jet extension east of Japan coupled with a Southeast Ridge keeps the storm tracks through the Great Lakes.