bluewave

The stronger WAR than forecast, which has become a repeating theme, pushed the rainfall axis further west. New run Old run

Coastal areas are running a small rainfall deficit this year leading to the D0 conditions with the record June and July heat. ISP PRECIPITATION (IN) YESTERDAY 0.27 1.19 2010 0.10 0.17 0.00 MONTH TO DATE 1.72 0.94 0.78 0.12 SINCE JUN 1 3.60 4.94 -1.34 2.56 SINCE JAN 1 19.33 23.74 -4.41 29.94

The subsurface of the WPAC near Japan is also at all-time record warm levels. So even after the trough there last winter, the SSTs rapidly rebounded once the record 500mb ridge returned. The record SSTs driving the -PDO along with the strong 500mb ridging seem to have entered a feedback loop which will be very difficult to interrupt. https://link.springer.com/epdf/10.1007/s10872-025-00764-w?sharing_token=J-9irySGxF9HZQFLbNJGDve4RwlQNchNByi7wbcMAY7wFuZ-ylVtGh1WkIZzeCeQ7fT_EW6c-yTyHjHGAbkHkCIuMkU2ciJtaEwncsfGWwMweI1zmVqAoQWL6L9qQ_p-2UuxUREesHtW412KA2GJ2gCcNnxXT5r3CdJOSYmJ8_4%3D

Typical July brown lawn special coming up for Long Island as the WAR is just a little too strong. So the heaviest convection is focused more in the interior. It doesn’t take much with the heat this time of year for the drought monitor to introduce D0 conditions. Happens quite a bit on Long Island this time of year. But the heavy rains usually end up being more impressive from later in the summer into the fall.

It’s been tough to get 100° heat anywhere around the region in September. Could be related to the monsoonal type summers which have been increasing. Even August 100° heat isn’t as common anymore. June 100 days Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2025 3 0 2 2021 2 0 - 1994 2 0 - 1943 2 0 5 2024 1 0 - 2011 1 0 - 1993 1 0 - 1988 1 0 - 1966 1 0 - 1959 1 0 - 1953 1 0 - 1952 1 0 - 1934 1 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2025 1 0 - 2021 1 0 - 2017 1 0 - 2008 1 0 - 1952 1 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2025 2 0 July 100° days Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2022 5 0 - 1949 5 0 3 2010 4 0 - 1993 4 0 - 1988 4 0 - 1966 4 0 7 2012 3 0 - 2011 3 0 - 1999 3 0 - 1955 3 0 11 2013 2 0 - 1997 2 0 - 1991 2 0 - 1980 2 0 - 1977 2 0 - 1954 2 0 - 1936 2 0 18 2025 1 21 - 2005 1 0 - 2002 1 0 - 1995 1 0 - 1986 1 0 - 1982 1 0 - 1963 1 0 - 1957 1 0 - 1937 1 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2013 2 0 - 2010 2 0 - 1999 2 0 - 1991 2 0 - 1966 2 0 - 1955 2 0 7 2019 1 0 - 2012 1 0 - 2011 1 0 - 2006 1 0 - 2005 1 0 - 1995 1 0 - 1957 1 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2010 3 0 - 1966 3 0 3 2011 2 0 - 1993 2 0 5 2013 1 0 - 1999 1 0 - 1983 1 0 - 1972 1 0 - 1963 1 0 - 1957 1 0 August 100° days Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1953 4 0 - 1944 4 0 3 2006 3 0 - 2001 3 0 - 1993 3 0 - 1949 3 0 7 2005 2 0 - 1948 2 0 9 2024 1 0 - 2022 1 0 - 2002 1 0 - 1973 1 0 - 1955 1 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2006 3 0 2 1955 2 0 - 1953 2 0 4 2005 1 0 - 2001 1 0 - 1948 1 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1948 2 0 2 1983 1 0 September 100° days Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1993 1 0 - 1953 1 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1953 1 0

Familiar summer pattern coming up of cool in the middle snd warm along the coasts. Hopefully, we can get some decent rains on Long Island. But the forecast looks to keep the heaviest just inland from the coast.

I would guess that Runyon 110° high was an error that never got corrected since its a few miles the east of New Brunswick and they only made it to 105°. Monthly Data for July 1936 for New Jersey Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. RUNYON COOP 110 PEMBERTON COOP 107 MERCHANTVILLE COOP 106 PLEASANTVILLE 1 N COOP 106 MOORESTOWN 4 E COOP 106 ROEBLING COOP 106 TRENTON WBAN 106 LONG BRANCH-OAKHURST COOP 106 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 106 Trenton Area ThreadEx 106 Belvidere Area ThreadEx 106 FLEMINGTON 5 NNW COOP 106 PLAINFIELD COOP 106 BELVIDERE COOP 106 SUSSEX 1 NW COOP 106 TUCKERTON 2 NE COOP 105 CAMDEN COOP 105 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 105 NEW BRUNSWICK EXPERIMENT STATION COOP 105 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 105 ELIZABETH COOP 105 JERSEY CITY COOP 105 LITTLE FALLS COOP 105 PATERSON COOP 105 CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 105 Newark Area ThreadEx 104 LAMBERTVILLE RIVER COOP 104 BRIDGETON 1 NE COOP 104 INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP 104 LAMBERTVILLE COOP 104 PHILLIPSBURG COOP 104 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 104 HAMMONTON 1 NE COOP 103 LAYTON 3 NW COOP 103 DOVER COOP 102 BELLEPLAIN STA FOREST COOP 102 SOMERVILLE 4 NW COOP 102 CANOE BROOK COOP 102 RIDGEFIELD COOP 102

2009 was the last summer at a warm spot like Newark which averaged under 74°. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Coolest Summers Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1940 71.0 0 2 1946 71.7 0 3 1945 72.4 0 4 1941 72.5 0 5 1936 72.7 0 6 1950 72.8 0 - 1935 72.8 0 - 1933 72.8 0 - 1932 72.8 0 7 1982 72.9 0 - 1956 72.9 0 - 1947 72.9 0 - 1942 72.9 0 8 1962 73.0 0 - 1958 73.0 0 - 1934 73.0 0 9 2000 73.1 0 10 1967 73.2 0 - 1954 73.2 0 - 1951 73.2 0 - 1931 73.2 0 11 2009 73.5 0 12 1996 73.6 0 - 1948 73.6 0 13 1985 73.7 0 - 1964 73.7 0 14 1997 73.8 0 15 2004 73.9 0 - 1965 73.9 0 - 1938 73.9 0

NJ was significantly warmer in 2014 than NYC and Long Island. Some spots approached 30 days reaching 90°. Plus we had 100° heat in June 2017 and numerous spots with 20+ days reaching 90. Data for January 1, 2014 through December 31, 2014 Days With 90° Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. SOMERDALE 4 SW COOP 29 POTTERSVILLE 2 NNW COOP 28 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 27 WRIGHTSTOWN COOP 26 TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 23 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 19 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 17 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 17 HARRISON COOP 16 Newark Area ThreadEx 15 TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 15 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 15 Monthly Data for June 2017 for Upton NY NWS CWA Monthly High Temperature Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 101 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 99 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 98 NJ HARRISON COOP 98 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 98 Data for January 1, 2017 through December 31, 2017 Days with 90° Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. WRIGHTSTOWN COOP 33 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 26 CANOE BROOK COOP 25 TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 24 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 24 HARRISON COOP 23 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 22 TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 22 Newark Area ThreadEx 22 HAMMONTON 1 NE COOP 22 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 20 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 20

Yeah, 2004 was the last time Lake Placid reached 35° in August. The 2020s is the first decade so far with no August lows in the 30s there. You knew 76-77 was going to be a historic winter for cold when they made it down to 27° in August 76°.

I remember all the tropical systems that summer and the great waves. It was the last time we had a record breaking snowy winter with under 10 days reaching 90° at the warmest spots like EWR. 2004 was also impressive with that cool summer following the great snows and the record cold in January. 2009 was the last time with under 15 days reaching 90° and an above average snowy season and near 0° in January. The there was the amazing Arctic outbreak in January 1985 and that cool summer. Also 1982 with the cool summer following the greatest April blizzard in over 100 years. We can add 1956 to the list for the great snowstorms in March. If you notice we used to get these very cool summers right around the ones which were the warmest in those eras, Such as 1956 after the 1955 summer. And 1967 following the summer of 1966. Then the 1982 summer right before the 1983 heat. Plus 1996 after the 1993 to 1995 summers with the heat index near 130°. We also had the cooler 2004 summer between the warmth in 2002 and 2005. Then our warmest summer on record in 2010 after the cool 2009 summer. So all we get these days is the summer heat like 2022 with nearly 50 days reaching 90 and an average summer like in 2023 with closer to 30 days. But not another cool one like in 2009. So we lost a whole category of cool summers since the big step up in summer temperatures in 2010. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Lowest Number of 90° days Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1967 7 0 2 1996 9 0 3 1985 11 0 4 1982 12 0 - 1975 12 0 - 1946 12 0 5 2004 13 0 6 2009 14 0 - 1962 14 0 - 1956 14 0 - 1935 14 0

The summer of 1996 was actually one of my favorites. All the cooler rainy days kept the beaches quiet. Since even a cool summer is plenty warm for the beach and swimming. Plus it came after the best winter I ever experienced. Gone are the days when nearly the whole area gets under 10 days a year reaching 90°. Data for January 1, 1996 through December 31, 1996 days reaching 90° Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 13 NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 11 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 10 NJ CRANFORD COOP 9 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 9 NJ HARRISON COOP 8 CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 8 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 6 NY MINEOLA COOP 6 NY NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 5 NJ ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG COOP 5 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 5 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 5 NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP 5 NJ JERSEY CITY COOP 4 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 4 NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 4 NY WEST POINT COOP 4 NY OCEANSIDE COOP 4 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 4 CT MOUNT CARMEL COOP 4 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 4 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 3 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 3 NJ WAYNE COOP 3 NY SUFFERN COOP 3 NY WEST NYACK COOP 3 NY UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 3 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 2 NY MIDDLETOWN 2 NW COOP 2 NY WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 2 CT DANBURY COOP 2 NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W COOP 2 NY SEA CLIFF COOP 2 CT MIDDLETOWN 4 W COOP 2 CT COCKAPONSET RANGER STA COOP 2 NY PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP 2 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 2 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 2 NY WALDEN 1 ESE COOP 1 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 1 NY BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 1

Harrison and Newark are both in the westerly downslope zone today. Harrison NJ 2025-07-09 15:16 APRSWXNET-CWOP 94

It’s sounds like you would really enjoy living is a desert environment. If you can deal with the heat, it’s actually a very beautiful ecosystem. I tend to enjoy cooler climates and was fine with all the cooler summers that I used to get growing up back in Long Beach.

No surprise given the record marine heatwave east of Japan.

Newark was tied with Corona for the highest temperature yesterday at 100°. Back on 6-24 Newark was only 3rd warmest. But now that NY State and Con Edison installed the Micronet, we can get an accurate assessment of what kind of heat the urban dwellers have to deal with. Since our airports are all right on the water and get cooling sea breezes. People living in these interior urban centers away from the water experience higher temperatures. 7-8-25 highest temperatures across the region Corona, Queens…..100° Newark, NJ…………100° 6-24-25 highest temperatures across the region Ozone Park South, Queens….105° Corona, Queens ………………..104° Harrison, NJ………………………103° Newark, NJ……………………….103° JFK…………………………………..102° LGA………………………………….101° ISP…………………………….……..101°

It’s impressive how competitive Eastern Long Island has been on 90° days so far. New York 90° Day Data for January 1, 2025 through July 9, 2025 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 12 New York-LGA Area ThreadEx 12 BAITING HOLLOW COOP 10 POUGHKEEPSIE/HUDSON VALLEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 10 Poughkeepsie Area ThreadEx 10 PORT JERVIS COOP 9 JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 9 New York-Kennedy Airport Area ThreadEx 9 SARA NEW YORK RAWS 9 ST. JAMES COOP 9 DANSVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT WBAN 8 SARATOGA SPRINGS 4 SW COOP 8 VICTOR 2NW COOP 8 LANSING MANOR COOP 8 WEBSTER 2 NE COOP 8 STONYKILL NEW YORK RAWS 8 ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 7 DANSVILLE COOP 7 SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN 7 Islip Area ThreadEx 7 GANG MILLS NEW YORK RAWS 7 SHERBURNE NEW YORK RAWS 7 New Jersey 90° Day Data for January 1, 2025 through July 9, 2025 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 17 Newark Area ThreadEx 17 OCEAN COUNTY AIRPORT WBAN 16 TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 15 CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 15 TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 14 HARRISON COOP 14 ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP WBAN 13 Atlantic City Area ThreadEx 13

There was no manipulation of the data. Our coldest winters in the CONUS have been warming at a slightly faster rate than the warmest winters have. You have to put away the notion that temperatures are going to warm evenly everywhere and across different seasons. The US and the world were in more of a stable climate from the 1890s to 1970s. There was only a very gently incline in temperatures over this period. The early stages of the warming acceleration didn’t begin until the 1980s. This rate of warming has rapidly increased over the last decade. You originally posted the maps from the 1978-1979 winter. The reason we could still get very cold winters as recently as the 1970s was that the temperatures weren’t all that different from the 1890s. It was a bit more than a degree cooler than experienced in the 1890s and 1930s. So it was in the same ballpark as the very cold winters from the earlier eras. 2024-2025 and 2020-2021 were essentially tied for the coldest winters of the 2020s so far. This level of cold is significantly warmer than the 1970s were. It’s no coincidence that the coldest winter was right before the steep increase in our winter warming began. Sometimes we get very cold months or seasons just before temperatures begin a steep rise. So this is why things have warmed so much relative to the 1970s. Coldest U.S. winters by decade since 1890s 1890s…27.95° 1900s…28.69° 1910s….29.11° 1920s...28.73° 1930s…27.78° 1940s….30.14° 1950s….31.44° 1960s….30.40° 1970s….26.62° 1980s….30.56° 1990s….31.12° 2000s….31.26° 2010s…..30.70° 2020s…..33.64°

Great Lakes snowbelts can do very well again like last winter with the record lake temperatures continuing. Record-breaking lake effect snow arrives as winter starts BY NICOLE COLLINS PUBLISHED DECEMBER 11, 2024 Not only were these totals impressive, but some were record breaking! Erie, Pennsylvania broke its snowiest day record with 22.6 inches falling on November 29 since records began in 1893. Gaylord, Michigan had 24.8 inches on November 29, making it the snowiest day on record since the site began recording in 1998 and Perrysburg, New York saw 30.6 inches on November 30, making it the snowiest day on record since the site began recording in 2003. This impressive lake effect snow event may be attributed to the warming water temperatures of the Great Lakes. By the end of November, both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario had year to date record high water surface temperatures. This is partly due to both an above-average 2024 fall season temperatures as well as a warm 2023-2024 winter season. This continues the average warming trend in the lake temperatures over the past 30 years. Warmer lakes increase the temperature difference between the water and air, encouraging more lake effect snow when conditions are right. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/record-breaking-lake-effect-snow-arrives-winter-starts

Most of the models had mid to upper 90s. Plus you can’t use convective outlooks as an IMBY forecast. It’s a general forecast for the outlook region. Some areas got very little rain and others had flooding.

1978-1979 was the coldest winter on record for the CONUS going back to 1895. The average DJF temperature was 26.62°. The 2013-2014 winter was the 33rd coldest at 31.25°. This past winter was the #106 coldest at 34.31°. So in just under than 50 years our coldest winters have warmed by 7.69°F. This winter had one of the smallest cold pools on record for the Northern Hemisphere.

What models have been you been looking at? They all had 90s today with very high dewpoints. Followed by afternoon thunderstorms. Florida weather means thunderstorms one minute and the sun coming out soon after. Not some kind of washout. Very heavy rain in a short amount of time. We need organized tropical systems for a complete washout this time of year.

Florida Keys weather here along the CT Shoreline. New Haven MOSUNNY 88 78 72 SW12G17 29.96F HX 101 KEY WEST MOSUNNY 89 78 70 NE12G20 30.16F HX 103

The semi-permanent subtropical ridge between 30°-60° N circling the Northern Hemisphere warming the SSTs below. As to why that mid-latitude band is the focus is anyone’s guess. While the climate models forecast the ridge axis and SST warming to be located more north, It’s verifying further south. Probably just an incomplete model based on our current understanding of the climate. But at least the model got the idea of stronger ridging warming the SSTs below correct even if it’s located further south.

Yeah, this has been the dominant pattern of the 2020s.