bluewave

Yeah, I drove back to Long two days after Sandy. Came down Austin Blvd in Island Park and there were still boats washed up in the road around the Texas Car Wash. Luckily my old house was on one of the highest parts of the barrier island. So the water stopped a few inches from coming over my top step. But the lowest areas like the West End had water up to 4-5 feet deep in people’s houses. Even if you lived in a higher up level of the apartment buildings and condos, there was no water or sewer for two weeks after the storm.

I moved out of Long Beach earlier in the year before Sandy arrived. That storm was in a class by itself. The tide level was around 4 feet higher with larger waves than in the 92 Nor’easter and Irene. The Lincoln Blvd section of the boardwalk in this video collapsed shortly after the power went out and the guy had to stop recording.

Major, moderate, and minor all describe specific benchmarks for coastal flooding. Minor and moderate coastal flooding events usually result in only street flooding and beach erosion. This event was at the moderate benchmark for coastal flooding at places like Sandy Hook and Freeport. The water level reached near the 8 ft moderate level at Sandy Hook. Low end major coastal flooding by a few inches usually means that the water can come up into peoples yards or lawns but not into the first floor of their house in the lowest lying coastal zones. This was the case along the GSB with this event. Once major coastal flooding gets around .75 to 1.5 feet above the major threshold, then flooding can come into the first floors of houses. This is what occurred with the 1992 Nor’easter and Hurricane Irene. Sandy was around 4.5” higher than December 1992 and Irene leading to the historic flooding in places which haven’t flooded in modern times. It was 5.7” above the major coastal flooding threshold at Sandy Hook reaching the 14.4” level. Sandy Hook has the most extensive list of coastal flooding records in area https://www.weather.gov/media/phi/middle.pdf

Those spring nor’easter events were weak compared to what we more regularly got in the past. Most of our storms in recent years have been cutters and huggers. It’s why this was the first 45+ mph gust of the year from the northeast at LGA. All the other 45+ mph gusts this year were more westerly.

You live in a colder area west of I-95 than NYC and other warmer coastal areas. So in marginal storms when the I-95 corridor and points east change to rain your area can remain mostly snow. NYC and coastal sections haven’t reached average mid 20s seasonal snowfall without at least one KU event since the 1990s. Prior to the 1990s NYC and the coastal sections were cold enough to reach mid 20s seasonal snowfall with a bunch of small to moderate events. Hopefully, we can see at least an intermittent return to KU benchmark tracks over the remainder of the 2020s so NYC can have a shot at reaching average snowfall or better.

NYC finished 24-25 with only 7.5” of snow. They got 2” of snow from that very narrow band. So even if they got the 11.3” that New Brunswick did just to the south, that would have only resulted in around 16.8” on the season. Close to 10” below the long term average in the 25-26” range.

Nor’easters have been few and far between in recent years. This was our first one in quite some time. It’s the only time all year that we had NE gusts over 45 mph at place like LGA. All the other days with winds gusts over 45 came from a more westerly component.

It’s possible the record low Arctic sea ice in the Kara and Barents is helping to strengthen the blocking there leading to most of our blocking episodes being more -AO dominant than -NAO dominant. Zack Labe‬ ‪@zacklabe.com‬ · 1d In contrast to the other side of the #Arctic, sea ice along the Atlantic front is a record low for this time of year. This relates to the recent record warmth and southerly winds/waves pushing the marginal ice zone closer to the North Pole. Data from @nsidc.bsky.social (nsidc.org/data/seaice_...). ALT 39

Looks like we are returning back to a Great Lakes cutter pattern.

Most spots were several feet below Irene as that was nearly identical to the tide levels during December 1992. This was a pretty moderate nor’easter as they go for most spots. Plus we avoided the highest astronomical tides by several days.

It’s a back and forth pattern with the warm ups being more impressive than the cool downs.

Still a very moderate event for most of us as the two weaker lows didn’t consolidate into one stronger event like earlier model runs forecast. A few spots like the GSB had a low end major event. But that is still below the really big nor’easters of the 90s which had extensive higher level major across nearly all our stations. Plus widespread 75+ and 80+ wind gusts with more extensive power outages.

I just said that where the mesoscale banding sets up could be considered luck like in February 2024 in regard to which specific areas got the heaviest totals. But the wider winter pattern in 23-24 being so warm was a function of the pattern. Plus the banding locations are due to the pattern at the time of the storm. Even if the banding was closer to NYC, then it would still have been a well below average snowfall season for them. Since it’s very hard to reach average with just one snowfall event. Unless it’s a high end KU like February 1983 or January 2016. So if the best the winter can produce is a very narrow snow band surrounded by most areas finishing with well below average snow it’s due to specific meteorological and climatic warming factors. We only got one week that winter during February when the record STJ streak was able to have some positive influence. In a way it was a much weaker El Niño backloaded winter event but the warmth that winter was the dominant factor. So as the winters continue to warm it results in the odds being tilted to more below normal snowfall outcomes. This isn’t to say we can’t eventually see a really solid snowfall month going forward like a reflection of January 2022. But we still haven’t seen a month that good especially across the SE NJ sections like ACY northeast to Islip.

There is no luck involved for the general pattern since 18-19. Maybe you can argue luck when mesoscale banding dumps the heaviest totals outside your immediate neighborhood. But the smaller number of opportunities to even get an event that can produce decent banding within a certain distance of where you live is all on the warmer storm tracks and overall patterns. So the odds have been favoring lower snowfall totals. Just like in great patterns you get more opportunities for snowy outcomes as you will eventually find yourself under the best banding since the higher number of opportunities eventually puts your neighborhood under the heaviest mesoscale banding. What happened in your area during 2021-2022? Boston got 54.0” which is around 10” above the long term average.

The big story last winter was diminishing snowfall returns from past La Nina strong +PNA mismatches. The past La Nina’s with strong +PNA’s from December into January all featured at least 35”+ in NYC going back to the 90s. Since this was the first time in 30 years that the Pacific Jet didn’t relax during this pattern, NYC only recorded 12.9”. So we weren’t able to see a repeat of the 38.6” in 20-21….40.9” in 17-18….40.0” in 05-06…35.0” in 00-01….75.6 in 95-96. The only times the Pacific Jet has been able to sufficiently weaken since 18-19, was during DJF 20-21 and January 22. So no luck was involved during those winters. Just solid fundamentals which allowed 20-21 to be the only snowy season in NYC out of the last 7. But there were some issues during December 2020. First, the Greenland block linked up with the Southeast ridge causing the storm to track very close to ACY. This shifted the record 40” snows to go inland near BGM instead of closer to the coastal plain. But thankfully, the late January into early February event took the classic KU track and delivered for much of the region. The January 22 pattern favored eastern areas for the heaviest snows. But it was still a great month for snow and cold due to the classic MJO 8 pattern. January 22 was the last both cold and snowy winter month for many across the region. Going forward we’ll have to see if maybe we can get at least one solid winter month for snow and cold like January 22. That was MJO 8 driven which allowed the Pacific Jet to weaken for a short period. As the Pacific Jet was really dominant in the other two winter months that year.

The storms from DC to Philly in January weren’t that impressive compared to what they used to get in the past. Suppression was still at play even in northern sections of those areas. My area in February was wet but only the weaker storms were cold enough for some snows. The strongest storm had highs in the 50s and heavy rain. We can refer to luck as a one-off or random event. But the continuation of the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks with the much faster Northern stream of Pacific Jet since 18-19 is a dominant weather pattern that doesn’t involve luck.

The one small piece of good news regarding all the tree damage starting with the March 2010 nor’easter is that many of the weaker trees are no longer around. Residents and power companies have been very proactive removing older damaged trees rather than waiting for another storm to blow them down. The landscape in a place like Long Beach is completely different due to them losing all their sycamores with the salt water damage in Sandy.

The only month last winter that suppression was an issue for NYC Metro was January. Those teleconnections could have worked for us prior to 18-19 especially in an El Niño dominant STJ pattern. But the split flow and overpowering Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet instead caused the Southern stream suppression. Both December and February were fairly wet but the storm tracks were too warm to our west for a major snow event.

Another 5 sigma jet max for Alaska. The strong gradient between the record SSTs over the WPAC and Siberian cold is driving this. So this leads to the continuing warmth for North America.

Very moderate event as the system split into two weaker lows instead of one strong consolidated one. Generally 1 to 1.5 so far for my area. While we have had much heavier rains with October nor’easters in the past, I will take it since we need the rains.

Continuation of the warm ups being more impressive than the cold downs across the area.

New JMA has Greenland to Eastern Canada blocking linking up with Southeast ridge in the means. Variable PNA with a ridge off the California Coast and an Aleutian ridge. Active storm track through the Great Lakes and a quiet Southern stream. Several elements related to the dominant pattern in recent years. https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/wmc/products/model/map/7mE/map1/zpcmap.php

Yeah, all-time October warmth up in those areas this last week with highs near 90° close to the Canadian border. Time Series Summary for MALONE, NY - Month of Oct Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2025 88 21 2 2023 85 0 3 2005 81 0 4 2016 80 0 - 2014 80 0 5 2018 79 0 - 2017 79 0 - 2007 79 0 - 1998 79 0

Multiple big snowstorms missed to our south from 2-6-80 to 3-3-80 with 32.6” at Norfolk and only 2.3” at JFK. Data for Norfolk Area, VA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1980-02-06 35 23 11.8 1980-02-07 37 26 0.6 1980-02-08 38 23 0.0 1980-02-09 37 29 2.3 1980-02-10 34 13 4.2 1980-02-11 40 9 0.0 1980-02-12 37 16 0.0 1980-02-13 36 22 0.0 1980-02-14 50 19 0.0 1980-02-15 46 29 0.0 1980-02-16 50 32 0.0 1980-02-17 33 22 0.0 1980-02-18 42 19 0.0 1980-02-19 48 23 0.0 1980-02-20 58 34 0.0 1980-02-21 62 44 0.0 1980-02-22 72 48 0.0 1980-02-23 63 43 0.0 1980-02-24 55 43 0.0 1980-02-25 45 36 0.0 1980-02-26 42 28 T 1980-02-27 48 23 0.0 1980-02-28 46 32 T 1980-02-29 37 25 0.0 1980-03-01 25 18 8.1 1980-03-02 24 20 5.6 1980-03-03 36 20 T Data for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1980-02-06 30 14 0.0 1980-02-07 33 28 T 1980-02-08 41 24 0.0 1980-02-09 32 23 0.0 1980-02-10 35 23 0.0 1980-02-11 37 20 0.0 1980-02-12 37 26 T 1980-02-13 38 26 0.0 1980-02-14 44 25 0.0 1980-02-15 36 29 T 1980-02-16 40 23 1.3 1980-02-17 27 19 0.0 1980-02-18 32 18 0.0 1980-02-19 41 26 0.0 1980-02-20 45 25 0.0 1980-02-21 56 32 0.0 1980-02-22 38 31 1.0 1980-02-23 49 34 0.0 1980-02-24 49 36 0.0 1980-02-25 41 30 0.0 1980-02-26 32 16 0.0 1980-02-27 36 16 T 1980-02-28 30 22 0.0 1980-02-29 22 9 0.0 1980-03-01 24 8 T 1980-03-02 26 12 T 1980-03-03 40 15 0.0

The big winner that winter was Virginia. I can remember flying out of JFK with bare ground and seeing the ground covered with snow in the mid-Atlantic from over 30K feet. We were under a winter storm warming here on a Sunday morning in February and the storm missed to our south. That was common in the old days with really big snowfall misses from the models only 12-24 hrs out in time. Data for October 1, 1979 through April 30, 1980 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. BIG MEADOWS COOP 68.3 MOUNT LAKE BIOL STN COOP 66.1 MONTEREY COOP 56.6 LANGLEY AIR FORCE BASE WBAN 50.0 GOSHEN COOP 48.0 CHARLOTTESVILLE 2W COOP 45.9 SCOTTSVILLE 6SE COOP 45.5 NORFOLK NAS WBAN 45.4 DRIVER 4 NE COOP 44.5 BUCKINGHAM COOP 43.5 SUFFOLK LAKE KILBY COOP 43.0 OCEANA NAS WBAN 42.6 BURKES GARDEN COOP 42.5 DIAMOND SPRINGS COOP 42.0 NORFOLK INTL AP WBAN 41.9 Norfolk Area ThreadEx 41.9