bluewave

The EPS is warmer overall next few weeks with a few colder days mixed in when the backdoors drop south before retreating north again. March 24-31 March 31 to April 7th

Possibly in NYC.

Today should be our first colder day in almost 3 weeks. Climatological Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - March 2025 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Sum 1252 811 - - 393 0 3.25 0.0 - Average 56.9 36.9 46.9 5.7 - - - - 0.0 Normal 49.4 32.9 41.2 - 525 0 2.95 4.7 2025-03-01 65 28 46.5 8.2 18 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-03-02 37 21 29.0 -9.5 36 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-03-03 41 22 31.5 -7.3 33 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-03-04 59 28 43.5 4.4 21 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-03-05 61 41 51.0 11.7 14 0 1.53 0.0 0 2025-03-06 57 37 47.0 7.4 18 0 T 0.0 0 2025-03-07 53 35 44.0 4.2 21 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-03-08 48 36 42.0 1.9 23 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-03-09 56 28 42.0 1.6 23 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-03-10 69 39 54.0 13.3 11 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-03-11 67 44 55.5 14.6 9 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-03-12 54 45 49.5 8.3 15 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-03-13 52 41 46.5 5.0 18 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-03-14 55 42 48.5 6.7 16 0 T 0.0 0 2025-03-15 48 42 45.0 2.9 20 0 T 0.0 0 2025-03-16 70 47 58.5 16.1 6 0 T 0.0 0 2025-03-17 64 38 51.0 8.3 14 0 0.75 0.0 0 2025-03-18 64 35 49.5 6.5 15 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-03-19 62 43 52.5 9.2 12 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-03-20 51 43 47.0 3.4 18 0 0.96 0.0 0 2025-03-21 54 40 47.0 3.1 18 0 0.01 0.0 0 2025-03-22 65 36 50.5 6.2 14 0 T 0.0 0 2025-03-23 M M M M M M M M M 2025-03-24 M M M M M M M M M 2025-03-25 M M M M M M M M M 2025-03-26 M M M M M M M M M 2025-03-27 M M M M M M M M M 2025-03-28 M M M M M M M M M 2025-03-29 M M M M M M M M M 2025-03-30 M M M M M M M M M 2025-03-31 M M M M M M M M M

High winds continue to be the big story with that locally severe squall line last night.

The Euro has the strongest backdoor gradient of the spring so far with low 80s in PA and 70s in NJ with 30s in Upstate NY.

Even NYC will have a shot at 70° next weekend so that below 70° for DJFM may not hold.

Our area east of the Hudson has been a different story than NJ and interior SENY due to the onshore flow during the stronger WAA days. So we had to settle for only around + 7° for the maxes this month vs the 10°+ and numerous 70° days west. Even though +7° is still a significant departure for highs, it will limit our March 70° potential since the average high on Long Island in March is only in the 40s for most of the month.

Warm pattern for early April as the Southeast Ridge links up again with the Greenland Block.

The warm up for next weekend will have more of an onshore flow again with the 70s away from the immediate shore.

The reason that we had the westerly flow since December was due to all the Great Lakes cutters and coastal hugger storm tracks. But during the summer we don’t get so many windy storm and frontal passages as the storms get weaker. So the summer wind direction will be determined by more subtle influences like where the 500mb ridge axis sets up. Over the last decade the ridge axis has become more elongated to the east of New England. So areas near the coast get more of a sea breeze influence. Back in the 2010 to 2013 era we had a Southeast Ridge which built more into the Great Lakes than to the east of New England. This allowed more SW to W flow around the Bermuda High. So the Westerly flow was a function of the ridge location rather than an active storm track to our west like this winter into early spring so far. All the warm ups this spring so far have had more onshore flow influence with numerous 70° days west of the Hudson and cooler highs to the east. We’ll have to see if this pattern repeats again over the summer. One way it could get interrupted is if a strong drought feedback develops to our west allowing more ridging near the Great Lakes than a weak trough and higher heights east of New England. Still too early to tell if this will be the case yet.

Still too early to guess the exact wind direction and rainfall pattern as we head into the summer. We had a dry pattern heading into the summer of 2022 and still got onshore flow east of NYC with over 5 days reaching 100° in NJ west of the sea breeze front. I don’t have much confidence in the models beyond 8-15 days for specifics like wind direction so it will just be a wait and see approach as usual.

These strong downslope days have been beating guidance so we could make it to the low to mid 50s which is a little warmer than the 51° average high.

I will say something different is happening this time around. Models show the cold blob fading this summer. But notice how this has been a localized event with the rest of the Atlantic staying near record warmth. Back in the 1980s the entire Atlantic ocean was much colder. The Atlantic has cooled off from the record SSTs of 2024 and is back to 2022 to 2023 levels. Notice how much colder the 1980s were in comparison. What we are seeing now may be related to the upwelling from the record westerly flow this last winter. But this is expected to relax as we head into the summer with much less westerly flow.

Record decoupled pattern this winter so the stratosphere hasn’t had the influence that it usually does. Plus it’s more of a final warming than a strong SSW. This has been a bottom up pattern rather than a top down one.

The Euro and CMC have more 70s potential next weekend.

NYC on track to continue the longest March under 1” snowfall streak to a record breaking 6 consecutive years.

Probably have to wait until April for the first 80° day at the usual warm spots as 70s will probably be the max this month. Monthly Data for March 2025 for New Jersey Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 72 PHILADELPHIA/MT. HOLLY WFO COOP 72 PENNSAUKEN 1N COOP 72 MOORESTOWN 4 E COOP 71 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 71 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 71 FLEMINGTON 5 NNW COOP 71 ESTELL MANOR COOP 71 SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 71 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 71 SUSSEX AIRPORT WBAN 70 Newark Area ThreadEx 70 MILLVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT WBAN 70 EWING 3 WNW COOP 70 TRENTON-MERCER AIRPORT WBAN 70 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 70 CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 70 OCEAN COUNTY AIRPORT WBAN 70 Trenton Area ThreadEx 70

As warm as we have been, the greatest departures have been to our west with numerous +10s.

Some new clues pointing toward the Eastern Pacific in regard to the historic global temperature increase since 2023. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/adb448 Reconciling Earth's growing energy imbalance with ocean warming Richard P Allan* and Christopher J Merchant Published 11 March 2025 • © 2025 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd This energy balance framework along with estimates of net imbalance changes and heat uptake by the land, atmosphere and cryosphere are further exploited to reconcile the rapid warming from 2022 to 2023 with energy budget changes. Based on observational evidence and assumptions, we determine an ocean heating of ∼1.49±0.33 Wm−2 during the rapid warming period, August 2022 to July 2023. A large observed near-global ice-free ocean surface warming of 0.27  from 2022 to 2023 is found to be physically consistent with the large energy imbalance of 1.85±0.3 Wm−2 and subsequent ocean heating from August 2022 to July 2023 but only if (1) a reduced depth of mixed layer (∼50 m) is heated or (2) there is a reversal in the sign of the heat flux from the mixed layer to deeper levels. The latter explanation (2) appears more likely given that a substantial upwelling of heat from the sub-surface eastern Pacific is generally associated with the transition from La Niña to El Niño conditions (Minobe et al 2024). The elevated ocean temperatures during 2023-24 are also expected to substantially alter and increase surface heat loss through turbulent fluxes at the ocean surface, which merits further investigation. Although Earth's energy budget peaked in 2023 and subsided up to June 2024, as record warmth ultimately led to extra thermal emission into space, it is notable that levels remained elevated relative to comparable minima following El Niño events in early 2016, 2010 and 1998. Richard Allan ‪@rpallanuk.bsky.social‬ Follow Our planet is becoming dimmer, in so many ways… our new @nceoscience.bsky.social @uor-research.bsky.social study teases out a signal of less shiny ocean clouds & how they combined with greenhouse gas heating to fast track #climate warming up to the balmy 2023/24 El Niño: doi.org/10.1088/1748... ALT ALT ALT ALT March 11, 2025 at 4:16 AM Everybody can

We had record cold in early March 1990 which balanced out the record warmth a few days later so the overall average temperature from the 1st through 17th wasn’t that high. Islip Area, NYPeriod of record: 1963-09-05 through 2025-03-18DateLowest minimum temperatures (degrees F)Top Record 2nd Record 3rd Record 3/8 8 in 1990 11 in 2007 13 in 1986 Islip Area, NYPeriod of record: 1963-09-05 through 2025-03-18DateHighest maximum temperatures (degrees F)Top Record 2nd Record 3rd Record 3/13 82 in 1990 70 in 2020 64 in 1995 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2024-03-17 47.9 0 2 1973-03-17 46.6 0 3 2016-03-17 45.1 0 4 2020-03-17 44.0 0 - 2012-03-17 44.0 0 - 1977-03-17 44.0 0 5 2000-03-17 43.3 0 6 2010-03-17 43.2 0 7 2025-03-17 42.7 0 8 1974-03-17 42.2 0 9 1983-03-17 41.8 0 10 2002-03-17 41.2 0 11 1990-03-17 40.9 0 - 1985-03-17 40.9 0

Of course it did. The forecast rule since 18-19 is that the model showing the coldest outcome and more snow is usually wrong. But from 09-10 to 17-18 more often than not the snowiest model outcome was correct. While this isn’t great for the snow lovers, it is an important model forecast pattern that helps us weed out the more unreliable model runs.

· 2d Global surface temperatures continue to impress this year at 2nd hottest on record, with the latest data point (from March 14, 2025) once again at 1.70°C above the pre-industrial baseline. Something something 120,000 years. Oh, and I forgot to mention that ...

Probably since it has been around 5° colder through the 17th than last year which was in 1st place. So dropping back to 7th warmest feels chilly by comparison. But compared to some recent Marches like we had during the 2010s it’s nearly 5-10° warmer. So March during the 2020s has dramatically shifted warmer and less snowy than the 2010s were. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2024-03-17 47.9 0 2 1973-03-17 46.6 0 3 2016-03-17 45.1 0 4 2020-03-17 44.0 0 - 2012-03-17 44.0 0 - 1977-03-17 44.0 0 5 2000-03-17 43.3 0 6 2010-03-17 43.2 0 7 2025-03-17 42.7 0 8 1974-03-17 42.2 0 9 1983-03-17 41.8 0 10 2002-03-17 41.2 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2025-03-17 42.7 0 2024-03-17 47.9 0 2023-03-17 40.4 0 2022-03-17 40.4 0 2021-03-17 37.3 0 2020-03-17 44.0 0 2019-03-17 35.8 0 2018-03-17 37.1 0 2017-03-17 34.3 0 2016-03-17 45.1 0 2015-03-17 34.6 0 2014-03-17 33.9 0 2013-03-17 37.5 0 Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.5 0.5 2025 0.0 0.0 2024 0.0 0.0 2023 1.6 1.6 2022 1.6 1.6 2021 T T 2020 T T Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 11.3 11.3 2019 4.1 4.1 2018 31.9 31.9 2017 7.4 7.4 2016 3.2 3.2 2015 19.7 19.7 2014 5.4 5.4 2013 7.4 7.4

Top 10 warmest start to March across the region. Most spots are running +4 to +7. It’s just goes to show when we get a few months a little colder than average that the rebound warmer has been more impressive during recent years. SMQ…+5.4° FWN..+6.7° EWR…+5.8° NYC….+4.1° LGA…..+3.8° JFK……+6.1° HPN…..+4.4° BDR……+4.2° ISP…….+4.8° POU…..+5.1° BGM…+6.9° PHL…+5.8°

While we have had several epic snowfall seasons from the mid 1990s into the 2010s, earlier eras measured snowfall differently. So the seasons prior to this period undermeasured snow compared to the way we do now. So correcting these undercounts will show heavier snows from the late 1800s into 1980s. This would lead to a longer term decline snowfall when the earlier totals are raised. So places that don’t show any long term trend will show a decline when the measurements are standardized. And some areas which already have long term declines will show even steeper declines. Plus areas which show longer term increases may shift to not much trend when the earlier era snowfall is increased. https://news.ucar.edu/14009/snowfall-measurement-flaky-history As a hydrometeorological instructor in UCAR’s COMET program and a weather observer for the National Weather Service, I am keenly interested in weather trends. In this case, climate change is an important factor to explore, since we know that the heaviest precipitation events have intensified in many parts of the world (see related story: Torrents and droughts and twisters - oh my!). But when we turn to snowstorms in the Northeast, or elsewhere in the U.S., there is an additional factor at work when comparing modern numbers with historical ones. Quite simply, our measuring techniques have changed, and we are not necessarily comparing apples to apples. In fact, the apparent trend toward bigger snowfalls is at least partially the result of new—and more accurate—ways of measuring snowfall totals. Climate studies carefully select a subset of stations with consistent snow records, or avoid the snowfall variable altogether. Official measurement of snowfall these days uses a flat, usually white, surface called a snowboard (which pre-dates the popular winter sport equipment of the same name). The snowboard depth measurement is done ideally every 6 hours, but not more frequently, and the snow is cleared after each measurement. At the end of the snowfall, all of the measurements are added up for the storm total. NOAA’s cooperative climate observers and thousands of volunteers with the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow (CoCoRaHS), a nationwide observer network, are trained in this method. This practice first became standard at airports starting in the 1950s, but later at other official climate reporting sites, such as Manhattan’s Central Park, where 6-hourly measurements did not become routine until the 1990s. Earlier in our weather history, the standard practice was to record snowfall amounts less frequently, such as every 12 or 24 hours, or even to take just one measurement of depth on the ground at the end of the storm. You might think that one or two measurements per day should add up to pretty much the same as measurements taken every 6 hours during the storm. It’s a logical assumption, but you would be mistaken. Snow on the ground gets compacted as additional snow falls. Therefore, multiple measurements during a storm typically result in a higher total than if snowfall is derived from just one or two measurements per day. That can make quite a significant difference. It turns out that it’s not uncommon for the snow on the ground at the end of a storm to be 15 to 20 percent less than the total that would be derived from multiple snowboard measurements. As the cooperative climate observer for Boulder, Colorado, I examined the 15 biggest snowfalls of the last two decades, all measured at the NOAA campus in Boulder. The sum of the snowboard measurements averaged 17 percent greater than the maximum depth on the ground at the end of the storm. For a 20-inch snowfall, that would be a boost of 3.4 inches—enough to dethrone many close rivals on the top-10 snowstorm list that were not necessarily lesser storms! Another common practice at the cooperative observing stations prior to 1950 did not involve measuring snow at all, but instead took the liquid derived from the snow and applied a 10:1 ratio (every inch of liquid equals ten inches of snow). This is no longer the official practice and has become increasingly less common since 1950. But it too introduces a potential low bias in historic snowfalls because in most parts of the country (and in the recent blizzard in the Northeast) one inch of liquid produces more than 10 inches of snow. This means that many of the storms from the 1980s or earlier would probably appear in the record as bigger storms if the observers had used the currently accepted methodology. Now, for those of you northeasterners with aching backs from shoveling, I am not saying that your recent storm wasn’t big in places like Boston, Portland, or Long Island. But I am saying that some of the past greats—the February Blizzard of 1978, the Knickerbocker storm of January 1922, and the great Blizzard of March 1888—are probably underestimated. So keep in mind when viewing those lists of snowy greats: the older ones are not directly comparable with those in recent decades. It’s not as bad as comparing apples to oranges, but it may be like comparing apples to crabapples. Going forward, we can look for increasingly accurate snow totals. Researchers at NCAR and other organizations are studying new approaches for measuring snow more accurately (see related story: Snowfall, inch by inch). But we can’t apply those techniques to the past. For now, all we can say is that snowfall measurements taken more than about 20 or 30 years ago may be unsuitable for detecting trends – and perhaps snowfall records from the past should not be melting away quite as quickly as it appears