bluewave

Yeah, the heat index tends to underestimate the heat compared to WBGT. https://perryweather.com/resources/heat-index-wet-bulb-globe-temp/ When it comes to measuring heat, not all conditions are created equal. The heat index only accounts for shady areas, giving a false sense of comfort, while the wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) is designed for areas exposed to the sun, offering a more accurate reflection of how the body actually experiences heat. The heat index ignores the brutal realities of direct sunlight, hot surfaces, and even physical exertion. Here’s why that’s a problem:

The max is currently around 5th-6th warmest for July. The min is in 1st place just ahead of 2010. The AVG is in 3rd place behind 2010. The heat index which takes into account the dew points set a new July record this month at 91.5° vs 90.0° in July 2010. So the drier heat back in July 2010 made it feel slightly cooler. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Max Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2010 89.0 0 2 2011 88.6 0 3 2022 86.9 0 4 1993 86.8 0 5 2019 86.7 0 - 1966 86.7 0 6 2025 86.6 2 7 2013 86.5 0 - 1999 86.5 0 8 2020 86.4 0 - 1983 86.4 0 9 1949 86.2 0 10 2002 86.1 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Min Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2025 72.7 2 2 2010 72.5 0 3 2013 72.4 0 4 2020 72.2 0 5 2022 71.6 0 6 2015 71.5 0 7 2016 71.4 0 - 1995 71.4 0 8 2024 71.2 0 - 1955 71.2 0 9 1994 71.1 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul AGV Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2010 80.7 0 2 2011 79.8 0 3 2025 79.6 2 4 2013 79.5 0 5 2022 79.3 0 - 2020 79.3 0 6 2019 78.8 0 7 1999 78.7 0 - 1993 78.7 0 8 2016 78.6 0 - 1983 78.6 0 - 1949 78.6 0 9 2015 78.4 0 - 2012 78.4 0 10 1994 78.1 0

The increasing dew points lead to the mimimums rising faster than the maximums at places like JFK. This has been the warmest July for the maximum average heat index and low temperature.The maximum average temperature at JFK has been lower this July than back in 2010 and 2011. But this July feels warmer due to the higher dew points than 2010.

For the urban areas it has been the lack of 50s during July which used to be more common. For the rural spots outside the UHI areas it has been a lack of July lows in the 40s which used to occur more regularly. Since the low temperatures have been steadily warming in both parts of the region.

New record 74.2° average July average max dew point at SMQ giving a record 96° heat index.

Yeah, we have been having a great discussion about this topic in the other part of the forum. https://www.science.org/content/article/america-s-corn-belt-making-its-own-weather https://news.wisc.edu/irrigated-farming-in-wisconsins-central-sands-cools-the-regions-climate/ https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/36/20/JCLI-D-22-0716.1.xml https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-16676-w https://news.ucar.edu/132872/1930s-dust-bowl-affected-extreme-heat-around-northern-hemisphere

This summer pattern is a continuation of warmer along the coasts and cooler in the middle which has dominated since 2018. So it’s no surprise that the record heat has been focused in the East and West. It’s actually a reverse of the Dust Bowl pattern which had the warmth focused in the middle of the CONUS. This is why the places from the Upper Midwest to Great Lakes haven’t seen a repeat of the the record heat they got back in 1936, 1988, and 1995.

That’s why ConEd installed the new network. They were probably noticing stronger cooling demand from those neighborhoods in Queens and wanted to get reliable temperatures there. Since the airports are located right on the water and there is a large area of urban neighborhoods that are located more in the interior of the city.

Those are professional thermometers that are shielded and aspirated. So they are getting the accurate temperatures for those urban areas. Low rise sprawl in Queens actually gets warmer than areas where skyscrapers cast shadows during the day. They did a recent study that it also adds more to UHI at night since it allows the ground level to absorb more heat than in places like Manhattan with more shade from the skyscrapers.

Those actual neighborhoods are the warmest in NYC. Corona got the compressional warming ahead of the sea breeze front yesterday. If the airports were located away from the water, then they would have been closer to the 102-103° range instead of topping out at 100°-101°. That 2° differential is what you would expect to see when further from the water like LGA. Newark didn’t really get into the compressional warming ahead of the sea breeze front yesterday like Queens did.

Corona and Brownsville maxed out at 103°. 13th St./16th / Alphabet City 100 82 90 104 88 78 33 0.00 14 3:00pm 6 3:55pm 24.6 160 Ave. / Howard Beach 92 76 84 105 76 95 55 0.00 28th St. / Chelsea 100 81 89 104 86 82 34 0.00 13 4:05pm 6 4:05pm 23.9 Astoria 100 79 90 105 79 85 32 0.00 10 6:30pm 3 6:40pm 20.7 Bensonhurst / Mapleton 97 79 88 106 79 87 42 0.00 23.9 Bronx Mesonet 99 77 88 101 77 84 32 0.00 15 2:35pm 8 12:00am 23.7 Brooklyn Mesonet 95 78 86 100 78 86 39 0.00 23 6:30pm 16 6:30pm 26.2 Brownsville 103 80 89 105 80 82 31 0.00 Corona 103 80 90 109 80 83 30 0.00 E 40th St. / Murray Hill 99 80 90 103 85 82 35 0.00 East River at Alphabet City Fresh Kills 11:10am 11:10am 6.7 Glendale / Maspeth 100 80 90 105 80 82 34 0.00 Gold Street / Navy Yard 99 80 89 104 80 83 34 0.00 16 5:30pm 6 3:15pm 25.4 Lefferts / South Ozone Park 96 77 86 107 77 89 47 0.00 Manhattan Mesonet 96 79 88 100 79 80 36 0.00 15 2:00pm 9 2:00pm 26.2 Newtown / Long Island City 100 82 90 104 87 77 32 0.00 14 5:45pm 8 4:55pm 25.2 Queens Mesonet 96 78 86 101 78 84 38 0.00 24 5:25pm 17 6:00pm 24.1 Queensbridge / Dutch Kills 102 82 91 105 88 77 32 0.00 22.8 Staten Island Mesonet 98 74 87 101 74 95 33 0.00 16 2:15pm 10

More record warmth today on the CT Shoreline following the June all-time high of 98° at HVN. Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2025 98 0 2 1957 96 0 3 2012 95 0 4 2021 94 0 5 2008 93 0 - 1974 93 0 - 1964 93 0 - 1953 93 0 - 1952 93 0 RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 441 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2025 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT BRIDGEPORT CT... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 96 DEGREES WAS SET AT BRIDGEPORT CT TODAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 96 DEGREES SET IN 2002. ALL CLIMATE DATA ARE CONSIDERED PRELIMINARY UNTIL REVIEWED BY THE NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION (NCEI).

The magnitude and duration of the westerly flow on Long Island was unprecedented in 2010. While earlier years had some, it was nothing compared to 2010. This was the only time that a station on Long Island had 50 days reaching 90°. Time Series Summary for MINEOLA, NY - Jan through Dec Most 90° Days Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2010 52 0 2 1988 34 50 3 2002 33 0 4 2005 32 2 5 1999 27 10 - 1991 27 0 6 1959 26 1 7 1961 21 1 8 1952 20 0 9 1955 19 3 - 1949 19 4 - 1944 19 0 10 1953 18 1

Back in 2010 there were several days when the flow stayed westerly nearly all day. And on the warmest days the sea breeze would often get delayed until mid or late afternoon. It was the only summer that this was the case when I lived in Long Beach.

It’s very rare for areas south the Belt Parkway near JFK to the Sunrise Highway in Nassau and into Suffolk to completely avoid a sea breeze. This is why June was the first 100° for many locations from JFK out into Suffolk since 2013. The ridge axis most of the time has been east of New England over the last decade leading to more onshore flow. This summer it has been a little further west allowing the 100° down to south the South Shore areas back in June. But the ridge is still not far enough west into the Great Lakes to give as much westerly flow as 2010. That’s why the sea breeze today was a bit stronger than forecast from yesterday. 2010 was the only time living in Long Beach that I had so much westerly flow right down to the beach. There were a few times that summer when the sea breeze stalled along the boardwalk with cooler on the beach and warmer along Broadway. The ridge axis this summer so far has been a blend of 2010-2013 and 2018-2024. So this is why places like JFK are so far behind 2010 on 90° days through late July. But more 90° and 100° days than recent years.

I didn’t say no sea breeze. The Euro had it stalling near the Belt Parkway and Sunrise Highway on the 12z run yesterday. It’s verifying a little more north than that. But the resolution on the Euro isn’t always high enough to show the exact location of the sea breeze front This is why the 12z HRRR at a higher resolution showed the stronger sea breeze today. But it’s a short term model and doesn’t always do so well a day out. Maybe when they upgrade the Euro resolution in the coming years it will be able to perform as well as some of the other higher resolution forecasts. The resolution is still a little too coarse for exact details like the sea breeze front location. Plus JFK ASOS is always a roll of the dice since it’s right on Jamaica Bay near the border with the 5 towns south of the Belt Parkway.

Still south of Corona as they just made it to 100°.

You can see the sea breeze front on radar between LGA and JFK.

Yeah, they usually slowed down in August except for years like 2005.

There were many above average highs which boosted the average. But the 90° day count was much lower last year. Many 85°+ days helped to boost the average high. But 2010 stands alone for 90° days from June 1st through July 28th. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY June 1st-July 28th days reaching 90° and warmer Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2010-07-28 21 0 2 1983-07-28 15 0 3 2012-07-28 13 0 - 1999-07-28 13 0 4 2025-07-28 12 0 - 1952-07-28 12 0 - 1949-07-28 12 0 5 2002-07-28 11 0 - 1963-07-28 11 0 6 2020-07-28 10 0 - 2011-07-28 10 0 - 1991-07-28 10 0 - 1966-07-28 10 0 - 1955-07-28 10 0

Even when using the avarage max it was still in the top 10 for warmth. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY AVG Max Temps June 1st - July 28th Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2010-07-28 86.4 0 2 2011-07-28 84.2 0 3 2025-07-28 83.2 0 - 2020-07-28 83.2 0 4 2008-07-28 83.1 0 - 1966-07-28 83.1 0 5 1999-07-28 83.0 0 6 2024-07-28 82.9 0 - 2016-07-28 82.9 0 7 1991-07-28 82.8 0 8 1983-07-28 82.7 0 - 1963-07-28 82.7 0 - 1949-07-28 82.7 0 9 2012-07-28 82.6 0 - 1971-07-28 82.6 0

The storm track shift around the NYC Metro area occurred during the 2018-2019 winter. From 2009-2010 to 2017-2018 we had a primary 40/70 benchmark storm track. Then in 2018-2019 it shifted to a Great Lakes cutter and I-95 to I-84 hugger storm track with the occasional suppressed Southern Stream track.

Already low 90s and the NYC micronet stations just before 10am.

I get that sometimes here along the LI Sound when there is an inversion with the wetlands nearby.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast system from before the winter missed the +PNA mismatch that I was discussing the potential for last October with the early MJO indicator. So the long range forecasts from months like October were obviously too warm since it missed the correct 500mb pattern. But in previous years without a mismatch, the seasonal model was too cold from October for the 22-23 and 23-24 winter forecasts. It missed the record warmth both winters from the fall seasonal forecasts. Now the 2nd way the Euro was incorrect last winter involved the medium term 15 day EPS. It was too cold overall in the Northeast but did better in other parts of the country. The 500 mb long range pattern forecast for February missed the Southeast Ridge linking up with the -5 AO in mid-February. It had a classic KU look around the time of the big -AO drop. We wound up with the storm cutting west of the big cities leading to the record snows in Toronto and Montreal. In the past we didn’t get these Southeast Ridge linking ups with such strong blocking near -5 SD around Greenland. The model actually did a very good job at the higher latitudes. But missed the subtropical ridge amplification. This is why the heavy snows it had around NYC in the longer range forecasts wound up significantly further north. This has been the case since the 18-19 winter with the big snowstorm always being 8-15 days away. The GFS and CMC have had the same issue so not so not just singling the Euro out. But it’s the highest scoring model overall so it gets more attention. The charts below represent a repeating model error or bias since the 18-19 winter. EPS long range forecast had the classic KU look but missed the strong Southeast Ridge amplification leading to the first February cutter for a -5 -AO