bluewave

If we can keep the ridge from elongating too much into SE Canada in later runs, then a flatter EPS high like below will keep the flow more westerly.

Hard to tell over a week out. But the EPS mean has westerly flow. So my guess is that most of the area away from the immediate shore will see their first mid to possibly upper 90s of the season. It’s a strong signal from an ensemble mean to see a 594 DM heat dome in the East over a week out.

New SST records set for the subtropical oceans.

Sea breezes and ocean views are the prime reason that so many people love living near the shore. Back in my old hometown places on the Boardwalk are going for almost 5 million dollars. It’s why so many people from NYC come out to Long Beach during the summer. Even the West End where houses used to sell for 50 thousand back in the 1970s is pushing almost 6 million to live on Reynolds Channel. When I grew up in those days Long Beach was more like Coney Island with arcades and an amusement park on the Boardwalk. Now it has become one of the most in demand Long Island real estate markets. https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/100-Boardwalk-Unit-1001_Long-Beach_NY_11561_M99207-31637?from=srp-list-card https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/853-W-Park-Ave_Long-Beach_NY_11561_M30048-76311?from=srp-list-card

Yeah, that’s what the Euro is hinting at around 10+ days out. Once these heat domes begin to flex the MCS train gets going over the Upper Midwest and race eastward. They seem to have been finding a way to go north or south of us in recent years. But eventually we’ll probably see another big one again.

Yeah, the 90° day count rises pretty quickly here in CT once we move inland from the shore. But not as extreme as NJ has been recently. I get a few more 90° days than Islip. for January 1, 2024 through December 31, 2024 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. HARTFORD-BRADLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 27 Hartford Area ThreadEx 27 HARTFORD-BRAINARD AIRPORT WBAN 20 HARTFORD BRAINARD FIELD WBAN 20 DANBURY COOP 18 BARKHAMSTED COOP 17 DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 16 BURLINGTON COOP 16 MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 12 NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 11 NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN 9 WILLIMANTIC WINDHAM AP WBAN 8 IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 7 Data for January 1, 2024 through December 31, 2024 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 41 HARRISON COOP 41 CANOE BROOK COOP 37 SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 35 Newark Area ThreadEx 33 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 33 CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 33 INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP 31 TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 31 PHILADELPHIA/MT. HOLLY WFO COOP 30 PENNSAUKEN 1N COOP 30 TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 30 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 29 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 29

Yeah, I am near the CT Shoreline and get great sea breezes. Yesterday was my warmest day of the season so far at 89° with more westerly flow that we have been getting recently. Only had 9 days reach 90° last year. There is also better radiational cooling here than I used to get back on the LI South Shore.

Yeah, this is why I like living near the shoreline. I used to get a great sea breeze back on the South Shore of LI. Now I get the local sea breezes off the Long Island Sound.

If the EPS is correct about that 594DM heat dome in around 10 days, then it would give us our first mid to upper 90s of the season.

If NYC increased the 90° count at the same rate as LGA and EWR last 30 years, then they would have around 28 days instead of only 18 days. So moving the sensor into the shade shaved off about 10 days. Yesterday was a prime example of this as some spots in NYC made it to 94° and the park was only 87°. June 12th high temperatures Corona, Queens…94° Brownsville, Queens….94° Newark….92° Astoria, Queens…91° LGA….90° JFK….90° BDR…90° FRG….89° HVN…89° ISP…..88° NYC….87° HPN….87°

Islip further from the sea breeze has nearly doubled their 90° day count since the early 60s. So this is more a JFK issue having the ASOS on the water. But you can see how much the 70° minimum count has increased at ISP with many recent top 5s. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=74&network=NYCLIMATE&station=NY4130&season=all&dir=above&var=low&threshold=70&year=1893&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

It’s a shame how much they let that Central Park site go. Since the ASOS was moved under the trees in 1995 it has created a decline in 90° days. You can see the similar charts starting 30 years before the the NYC ASOS was installed. All other sites away from the immediate sea breeze influence have seen a steep increase in 90° days. The sites with some of the greatest increases in NJ are in park-like settings such as New Brunswick. But those sensors are in clearings instead of under a tree canopy. If they kept the NYC ASOS in a clearing like before 1995, then NYC would average around 28 or 29 days reaching instead of the current 18 to 19. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=74&network=NJCLIMATE&station=NJ3951&season=all&dir=above&var=high&threshold=90&year=1961&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

The storm track through the Great Lakes was pushed further north and east than usual resulting in the snowiest February on record in Toronto. So you needed to be far enough north to get into the really good stuff. Plus the record warmth and open waters around Hudson Bay kept the Great Lakes warmer than they typically see during La Ninas since the source region was so much warmer than normal. This residual pattern could have been lingering from the previous winter which was the warmest on record for many spots around the Great Lakes. The custom composites that I generated below isolate the storm track dates. These composites feature the 11 days this past winter that .20 or greater of precipitation fell around NYC Metro. So this was the dominant storm track for my area. The average temperature on these storm dates in NYC was 41°. It’s why the snowfall last winter was so low even though the average winter temperatures for the 3 month period was closer to 35.0°. The La Niña reference to the pattern is how strong the Southeast Ridge was along with the subtropical ridge from near Hawaii into the Southern Plains on the major winter storm track days around the Northeast. Also notice the familiar -NAO Greenland to Iceland block linking with the Southeast Ridge yet again. The La Niña mismatch feature was the stronger -EPO+PNA than usual. The extended Pacific Jet from Japan across the CONUS was also significantly stronger than past La Niña instances. My guess this is a result of the gradient between the record WPAC warm pool and Arctic cold in Siberia. So an enhanced La Niña pattern in some regards with variations leaving some areas of the Great Lakes drier and warmer than usual La Ninas.

The disappointing part is that most to all of the La Niña +PNA mismatch December into January seasons like 20-21, 17-18, 00-01, and 95-96 were great to amazing snowfall seasons. This past season singularly was extremely low for snowfall compared to past events. This is why the mismatch potential I was discussing back last October with the early MJO indicator had caveats. As other features weren’t lining up like those great seasons. So while I was anticipating the +PNA, the Pacific Jet showed that it wasn’t going to relax right out of the gate in December. So it’s a bit like a baseball game where the team keeps leaving the bases loaded and can’t drive in any of the runs.

This past winter was trying to put together the semblance of a +PDO 500mb pattern in the means especially from December into January. But the Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet kept interfering by lowering heights out West as soon as they built. So the -EPO that we usually see with +PDO atmospheric patterns was too back and forth instead of staying as negative as 13-14 and 14-15 did with the great -WPOs we enjoyed back then as you mentioned. Plus the storm track was pure La Niña through the Great Lakes. This could have been a great winter for Eastern snows if the WPAC and Jet stream influence was more muted.

Perhaps we could see our first 95° readings of the season in late June if the WAR and ridge out West link up. But the wild card will probably be if we can get a break in this wet pattern. If it stays too wet, then we could only top out in the low 90s. But a few days of full sun and drier conditions could easily result in mid 90s or higher at the usual warm spots. Especially with the drought out West into Canada. Ridges trying to link up in late June

The climate model I posted a while back did a good job forecasting the +PDO from 2014 to 2018 with the 2013 initialization. The current batch of climate models I recently posted continues this -PDO driven by the record warm WPAC that began in 2019 up through 2030. But my guess is that this could change if we can get a strong enough El Niño in 26-27 or 27-28. We would probably need a record EPAC warming in conjunction with a very strong to super El Niño to compete against the WPAC warm pool. But not sure what a strong +PDO would look like following the recent global baseline temperature jump in 23 to 24. Plus the recent very strong El Niño in 23-24 couldn’t shift the La Niña background as we saw the record WPAC forcing near the MC for an El Niño. The AMO has been a different story. There was talk back in the summer of 2013 and 2014 that the AMO was in the process of going negative following the unusually quiet hurricane seasons. But instead the North Atlantic SSTs became much warmer from 2015 to 2019 with a new SST pattern emerging. A small cold pool south of Greenland with record SSTs east of New England. This is different from past AMO SST configurations. Then in 2023 and 2024 the entire basin jumped to record highs associated with less clouds, lighter winds, and higher pressures. I posted this study in the Global Temperature thread if anyone is interested. So we are seeing different processes in the Atlantic especially over the last decade from the past AMO cycles. There has also been a record number of hurricanes focusing the landfalls around the Gulf Coast since 2017. One of the unusual hallmarks of these storms is that they have been intensifying during landfall. While older storms would reliably begin to weaken with only a few deepening into landfall. So maybe it will take a volcanic eruption not seen in hundreds or thousands of years to to cool the oceans below so much that it mimics a -AMO. Outside of that not sure how to cool the North Atlantic. These record ridges getting stuck in place rapidly warm the seas below like we just saw around NW Europe with the record 3 to 4 SD SST warming there.

The main issue with what passes as regional and global governance is that too many people and governments see themselves as separate from nature. Somehow over the last several thousand years we got the idea that nature is something to be conquered. But in reality we are all part of the same living organism whether we realize it or not.

Well 2023 and 2024 were the warmest SSTs on record for the Atlantic Basin. This past winter saw very strong winds across the basin cooling things down from those peak levels. So while we are currently back to 3rd warmest, the SSTs are significantly above the 1981-2010 and 1991-2020 averages.

I think the Atlantic warming is more a function of the lighter winds, higher pressures, and cloud reductions rather than the usual old AMO. Much of what was once believed to be the -AMO was actually a result of volcanic aerosols cooling the SSTs below. So my guess is that the Atlantic SSTs will remain very warm if and until we see a return to major volcanic activity like we had hundreds to thousands of years ago.

Trees have really taken a beating since 2010. We have seen record tree losses in the East from all the high wind events. The West into Canada has seen a ton of tree losses from all the wildfires. Not to mention the record deforestation of the Amazon Basin.

All the way to Eurasia from Canada. ‪Ryan Katz-Rosene, PhD‬ ‪@ryankatzrosene.bsky.social‬ · 1d Canada’s wildfire smoke has now made it to Europe! Gives you a sense of how massive these fires are! 13 5 Chris Mooney ‪@chriscmooney.bsky.social‬ Follow I also included a visualization of data from @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social in the piece. Here's where 2025 currently stands compared to other years Emissions from Canada's wildfires are spiking again The chart shows the annual growth of wildfire emissions in million tons of carbon dioxide gas, from 2003-2005. 2025 data end on June 9. datawrapper.dwcdn.net June 11, 2025 at 10:24 AM

Yeah. Even though the subsurface in the Nino regions is warm neutral, the WPAC warm pool is the main contributor to the RONI La Nina background pattern. So looks like a continuation of the WPAC being the main driver rather than the ENSO regions.

Anytime we start to see heat like this building out West in early June, the potential is there for 100° heat around our area after June 20th into July as pieces come east.

That’s what allowed JFK to set the November monthly max of 82° last year. Flash drought permitted JFK to beat the previous record by a full 2°. If this had occurred back in July instead, then it would have been the first 106°high at JFK. Since that is +2° over the all-time summer max set back in 1966. Also notice the record ridge building from the Great Lakes and westerly flow on November 1st, 2024. This pattern has been missing during our summers since 2013. The Euro summer forecast is wet for our area. So probably noting as dry as last September into October this July into August. But with the major drought out West, pieces of the heat can come east from time to time with drier 1 to perhaps 2 week periods. Wouldn’t take much for a day or two of westerly flow and JFK making a run in its first 100° since 2013. But specifics like that will probably have to wait until we get past the solstice. 100° heat since 2013 has been restricted to interior Queens from Corona to LGA and NJ. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Nov maximum temperatures Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2024 82 0 2 2022 80 0 - 1950 80 1 3 1993 77 0 - 1982 77 0 - 1975 77 0 4 1974 76 0 5 2015 75 0 - 2003 75 0 - 1990 75 0