bluewave

Some thunderstorms earlier in that batch.

Not surprising given the continuing record WAR and SE Ridge patterns since the 15-16 super El Niño. Near to record 500mb heights for Canadian Maritimes

I am hoping the EPS idea of the pattern drying out during the eclipse week is correct. But a daily forecast that far out will always be low skill.

Parts of the area could go over 12.00 on the month with this event and a bunch over 10.00. Data for March 1, 2024 through March 27, 2024 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Precipitation NY SMITHTOWN 2.0 SSW CoCoRaHS 10.93 CT SALEM 3.6 SE CoCoRaHS 10.83 NY HOWARD BEACH 0.4 NNW CoCoRaHS 10.51 CT OAKDALE 2.6 WNW CoCoRaHS 10.46 CT NORWICH 2.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 10.34 CT STRATFORD 0.2 ESE CoCoRaHS 10.23 NY DEER PARK 1.0 NE CoCoRaHS 10.18 CT FAIRFIELD 1.5 NE CoCoRaHS 10.12 CT NORWICH 5.2 SE CoCoRaHS 10.05 NY ST. JAMES COOP 9.93 CT GUILFORD CENTER 2.7 WSW CoCoRaHS 9.93 CT STRATFORD 0.9 W CoCoRaHS 9.90 NY LITTLE NECK 0.3 SE CoCoRaHS 9.89 CT COLCHESTER 0.6 ENE CoCoRaHS 9.83 NY NORTHPORT 1.6 NNE CoCoRaHS 9.82 CT HIGGANUM 0.8 NE CoCoRaHS 9.80 NY BROOKLYN 3.1 NW CoCoRaHS 9.79 CT EAST LYME 0.5 SW CoCoRaHS 9.76 CT GUILFORD COOP 9.63 CT HIGGANUM 0.7 N CoCoRaHS 9.63 NY MANHASSET HILLS 0.2 NNE CoCoRaHS 9.59 CT NORTHFORD 0.8 SW CoCoRaHS 9.56 NY ALBERTSON 0.2 SSE CoCoRaHS 9.52 NY MALVERNE 0.5 SE CoCoRaHS 9.46 NJ MONTCLAIR 0.7 N CoCoRaHS 9.34 CT JEWETT CITY 3.0 ESE CoCoRaHS 9.31 NY CENTERPORT COOP 9.29 CT MIDDLEFIELD 1.4 W CoCoRaHS 9.27 CT MYSTIC 3.4 NW CoCoRaHS 9.24 NY CENTEREACH 1.3 NE CoCoRaHS 9.22 CT KILLINGWORTH 2.6 ESE CoCoRaHS 9.21 CT NEW CANAAN 1.9 ENE CoCoRaHS 9.20 NY SETAUKET-EAST SETAUKET 2.1 WNW CoCoRaHS 9.20 CT WALLINGFORD CENTER 1.9 WNW CoCoRaHS 9.20 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 9.14 CT NORWALK 1.4 ENE CoCoRaHS 9.12 CT WALLINGFORD CENTER 3.3 NNW CoCoRaHS 9.11 CT ESSEX VILLAGE 0.9 S CoCoRaHS 9.11 NY WANTAGH 0.3 ESE CoCoRaHS 9.10

It least some of the higher elevations were able to reach average snowfall with the recent storm.

Yeah, strongest subsidence over the Maritime Continent for the whole year so far.

That 4 sigma 500 mb Greenland block in the forecast looks to be the strongest of the year so far. So a very active pattern will continue into early April. Spring will remain on hiatus for a while longer.

I guess the orientation of the marine heatwaves in the MJO 4-7 zones holds the convection there longer during the winter. Then the last 2 years the convection finally was able to shift at some point in March. Our last solid winter month here was Jan 22 when the MJO was able to linger in 8.

This blocking pattern going into April looks legit. MJO 8-1 is teaming up with a wave break for Greenland blocking. While the higher elevations are always favored for April snows, this is the type of pattern that could produce a trace that doesn’t accumulate much closer to the coast. I guess it would be like what happened in May 2020. Late season blocks have been becoming more common in recent years.

Approaching the middle of the pack for late March but lower than the record highs were seeing at this time last year.

The two streams eventually phase on the EPS by the time it gets east of New England and becomes a potent 50/50 low. A sooner phase like the UK /CMC will just mean heavier rain totals than a later one further east of New England. Either way it looks like more rain for us later in the week. That low creates the wave break and Greenland block then the follow up systems behind are more opportunities for rain into April.

It will be interesting to track the evolving storm details for later in the week. It looks like there will be a powerful phase involved. So the timing will be important as to how much heavy rains the region can get. It is also forecast to generate an impressive wave break which could set up a strong Greenland block into early April. That would mean a continued stormy pattern and probably limit the number of 70° days until the blocking relaxes a bit.

That storm later this week should allow several stations to cross the 10” mark for the month. Data for March 1, 2024 through March 24, 2024 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Precipitation NY ST. JAMES COOP 9.93 CT GUILFORD COOP 9.63 NY CENTERPORT COOP 9.29 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 9.14 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 9.09 NY MOUNT SINAI COOP 9.03 NJ HARRISON COOP 8.82 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 8.79 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 8.78 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 8.41 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 8.41 CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 8.40 CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN 8.31 NY UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 8.31 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 8.24

Yeah, the second half of 2023 was so much more extreme than anything we have seen before.

It figures the MJO would wait until March to finally go into phase 8 like last year. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Lowest Min Temperature Mar 19 to Mar 31 Missing Count 2024-03-31 29 8 2023-03-31 29 0

Record air and sea surface temperatures continue.

Yeah, a top 3 finish with JFK recording it’s wettest March. Maximum 1-Day Total Precipitation for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Value Ending Date Period of record: 1869-01-01 to 2024-03-23 1 4.25 1876-03-25 2 3.86 2010-03-13 3 3.66 2024-03-23 4 3.44 1977-03-22 5 3.10 1983-03-18 6 2.98 2005-03-28 7 2.95 1914-03-01 8 2.94 1901-03-11 9 2.63 1979-03-06 10 2.61 1953-03-13 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Mar Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 2024 8.79 8 2 2010 8.62 0 3 1980 8.17 0 4 1953 7.93 0 5 2001 7.00 0 6 1993 6.83 0 7 1983 6.66 0 8 1984 5.99 0 9 2017 5.79 0

This band coming through has some of my heaviest rainfall rates of the year so far just east of KHVN.

Pretty ridiculous SST warmth in the Atlantic for so early in the year combined with a developing La Niña.

The radar presentation reminds me of when a tropical system makes landfall to our south and runs up just inland from the coast.

Wettest March day on record for Philly.

Yeah, nice event for the ski resorts.

40 and rain here.