bluewave

Yeah. 1983-04-19 45 35 40.0 -12.1 25 0 0.87 1.5 T

It was the latest in NYC since 1980. Frost/Freeze Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1891 05-06 (1891) 32 11-04 (1891) 30 181 1874 04-30 (1874) 32 11-12 (1874) 32 195 1919 04-26 (1919) 31 11-14 (1919) 30 201 1892 04-25 (1892) 32 11-11 (1892) 32 199 1888 04-25 (1888) 31 11-17 (1888) 30 205 1930 04-24 (1930) 31 11-06 (1930) 31 195 1872 04-23 (1872) 29 11-16 (1872) 30 206 1875 04-22 (1875) 28 11-02 (1875) 31 193 1925 04-21 (1925) 32 10-29 (1925) 31 190 1922 04-21 (1922) 32 11-21 (1922) 32 213 1926 04-20 (1926) 28 11-04 (1926) 31 197 1904 04-20 (1904) 27 10-31 (1904) 32 193 1897 04-20 (1897) 24 11-18 (1897) 32 211 1890 04-19 (1890) 30 11-21 (1890) 31 215 1887 04-19 (1887) 29 10-30 (1887) 32 193 1980 04-17 (1980) 32 11-16 (1980) 32 212 2014 04-16 (2014) 31 11-18 (2014) 24 215

February 2015 was a one-off type event that we won’t see again absent some massive volcanic eruption dramatically cooling the earths climate.

April 1875 was very cold and snowy which would be a -10 by today’s much warmer climate normals. April 16th through the 22nd was close to what our average January temperstures are these days at only 34.1°. So not something we can experience anymore in the much warmer climate. Climatological Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - April 1875 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Sum 1500 1031 - - 590 0 3.08 13.5 Average 51.7 35.6 43.7 -10.0 - - - - Normal 61.8 45.5 53.7 - 354 14 4.09 0.4 1875-04-01 61 39 50.0 1.9 15 0 0.00 0.0 1875-04-02 65 48 56.5 8.1 8 0 0.06 0.0 1875-04-03 55 41 48.0 -0.8 17 0 0.34 0.0 1875-04-04 46 37 41.5 -7.7 23 0 0.31 0.0 1875-04-05 58 37 47.5 -2.1 17 0 0.00 0.0 1875-04-06 54 M M M M M 0.00 0.0 1875-04-07 M 31 M M M M 0.06 0.5 1875-04-08 51 33 42.0 -8.8 23 0 0.00 0.0 1875-04-09 47 37 42.0 -9.2 23 0 0.02 0.0 1875-04-10 61 39 50.0 -1.6 15 0 0.00 0.0 1875-04-11 66 47 56.5 4.5 8 0 0.00 0.0 1875-04-12 48 35 41.5 -10.9 23 0 0.10 T 1875-04-13 35 30 32.5 -20.3 32 0 0.87 8.7 1875-04-14 52 30 41.0 -12.2 24 0 0.14 1.3 1875-04-15 57 41 49.0 -4.6 16 0 0.00 0.0 1875-04-16 48 33 40.5 -13.5 24 0 0.10 T 1875-04-17 33 27 30.0 -24.3 35 0 T T 1875-04-18 32 25 28.5 -26.2 36 0 T T 1875-04-19 40 22 31.0 -24.1 34 0 0.00 0.0 1875-04-20 41 29 35.0 -20.5 30 0 0.00 0.0 1875-04-21 43 26 34.5 -21.3 30 0 0.00 0.0 1875-04-22 51 28 39.5 -16.7 25 0 0.00 0.0 1875-04-23 60 35 47.5 -9.0 17 0 0.00 0.0 1875-04-24 59 35 47.0 -9.9 18 0 0.37 0.0 1875-04-25 51 34 42.5 -14.7 22 0 0.44 3.0 1875-04-26 61 41 51.0 -6.6 14 0 0.00 0.0 1875-04-27 58 45 51.5 -6.4 13 0 0.00 0.0 1875-04-28 46 42 44.0 -14.2 21 0 0.21 0.0 1875-04-29 54 40 47.0 -11.5 18 0 0.06 0.0 1875-04-30 67 44 55.5 -3.4 9 0 0.00 0.0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending 4-16 to 4-22 1 1875-04-22 34.1 0

It just happened a few years ago several times at even later dates. The big change we have seen is that these April snow events are struggling to accumulate near the coast as it gets warmer. So we wind up with just a trace rather than an accumulation.

This wasn’t that big of a deal. Since LGA had accumulating snow and not just a T a few days later back in 2014. Then a T on 5-9-20. Maybe if the low temperatures were really cold like the maxes were yesterday they could have had a light accumulation. 2014-04-16 47 32 39.5 -14.4 25 0 0.05 0.2 2020-05-09 49 36 42.5 -19.2 22 0 0.03 T

Correlations or associations shift over time with the climate. From the 1950s to early 1970s -PNA -NAO -AO was associated with a trough in the East. But in recent times this has featured a strong Southeast Ridge. Even the -NAOs and -AOs have been occurring with a strong Southeast Ridge. My guess as to why this has been the case is due to the rapid warming of the Atlantic Ocean leading to a stronger subtropical ridge. So when we used to get more of a trough in the East the tendency has become more of a Southeast Ridge. This is the weakness's of just relying on the older teleconnections like NAO, AO, PNA, and EPO and not recognizing changes in the ridge structures and orientations further south. Plus the much stronger Pacific Jet is playing a role in the ridge strength also.

That was in 2020 leading up to the record May snowfall. April 2002 was only a little warmer than average by modern standards. But the warmth from the 13th to 19th was very impressive. Climatological Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - April 2002 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Sum 1963 1396 - - 330 68 3.76 T - Average 65.4 46.5 56.0 2.7 - - - - 0.0 Normal 62.6 44.1 53.3 - 363 14 3.87 0.5 2002-04-01 62 45 53.5 5.7 11 0 0.07 0.0 0 2002-04-02 58 39 48.5 0.3 16 0 0.00 0.0 0 2002-04-03 77 41 59.0 10.4 6 0 0.05 0.0 0 2002-04-04 52 37 44.5 -4.4 20 0 0.00 0.0 0 2002-04-05 44 33 38.5 -10.8 26 0 T T 0 2002-04-06 49 32 40.5 -9.2 24 0 T T 0 2002-04-07 49 28 38.5 -11.6 26 0 0.00 0.0 0 2002-04-08 62 40 51.0 0.5 14 0 T 0.0 0 2002-04-09 77 55 66.0 15.1 0 1 0.07 0.0 0 2002-04-10 67 48 57.5 6.2 7 0 0.01 0.0 0 2002-04-11 57 47 52.0 0.3 13 0 0.00 0.0 0 2002-04-12 55 43 49.0 -3.1 16 0 0.06 0.0 0 2002-04-13 74 54 64.0 11.5 1 0 0.07 0.0 0 2002-04-14 74 55 64.5 11.6 0 0 0.09 0.0 0 2002-04-15 82 58 70.0 16.8 0 5 0.02 0.0 0 2002-04-16 92 64 78.0 24.4 0 13 0.00 0.0 0 2002-04-17 97 68 82.5 28.5 0 18 0.00 0.0 0 2002-04-18 93 74 83.5 29.1 0 19 0.00 0.0 0 2002-04-19 91 63 77.0 22.2 0 12 0.59 0.0 0 2002-04-20 69 54 61.5 6.4 3 0 0.23 0.0 0 2002-04-21 56 48 52.0 -3.5 13 0 0.01 0.0 0 2002-04-22 58 42 50.0 -5.9 15 0 0.29 0.0 0 2002-04-23 56 39 47.5 -8.7 17 0 0.00 0.0 0 2002-04-24 61 37 49.0 -7.6 16 0 0.00 0.0 0 2002-04-25 52 43 47.5 -9.4 17 0 0.50 0.0 0 2002-04-26 61 40 50.5 -6.8 14 0 0.00 0.0 0 2002-04-27 65 38 51.5 -6.1 13 0 0.03 0.0 0 2002-04-28 57 48 52.5 -5.5 12 0 1.54 0.0 0 2002-04-29 57 43 50.0 -8.3 15 0 T 0.0 0 2002-04-30 59 40 49.5 -9.1 15 0 0.13 0.0 0

The NAO was much more positive from 11-12 to 17-18 than it has been from 18-19 to 24-25. Yet there was a record number of BM tracks from 11-12 to 17-18 with the strong +NAO over those winters. But very few BM tracks in the last 7 seasons vs the previous 7 seasons. Which has been reflected in the steep snowfall decrease in places like NYC Metro region. So as I have said, it’s the Pacific Jet driving the decline in BM tracks and snowfall much more than the Atlantic side and teleconnections like the NAO. Trying to use correlations from a different climate era isn’t going to work out.

While 90s have always been rare in April, the highest maxes for the month have been steadily increasing.

That’s a function of the all or nothing snowfall regime which began in the 1990s as the winters have warmed. To reach normal to above normal snowfall has fallen squarely on the shoulders of BM storm tracks which most times were NESIS ranked KU events. The years without BM tracks and KU events were duds since the 1990s and the years with BM tracks were great. Since we lost the BM storm track in 18-19, nearly all the seasons with the exception of 20-21 around NYC were well below average. This is the risk of relying exclusively on one type of storm track to reach normal seasonal snowfall. When it was much colder from the 1960s to early 1990s we had a wider variety of storm tracks to reach average. So plenty of very cold winters without benchmark KU events broke even. These were the moderate storms with took BM tracks but didn’t rank on the KU scale. So in a colder climate we were able to nickel and dime our way to close to normal. These days nickel and dime events which were frequent this past winter just couldn’t get the job done since the storm tracks were so warm on the days with precipitation over .25 around NYC.

Those correlation composites are outdated since they were before we began to see the climate shifts in recent years. So newly emergent patterns will always have smaller sample sizes to draw from than from a colder stable era over decades and decades. January 2025 was one of the strongest -NAO winter months of the 2020s with very little snow to show for it. Same went for March 2023 with a strong -NAO.

We had great snows during the +NAO winters in 04-05, 13-14, 14-15, 15-16, 16-17 and 17-18. So the Pacific Jet has had more influence than the teleconnections in determining the BM storm tracks and snowfall in this area. The -NAO only helps snowfall when the Pacific Jet relaxes and the -NAO doesn’t link up with the Southeast Ridge.

It would be cool if you knew someone in one of these towers that would let you come over during high wind events.While I wouldn’t want to experience it all the time, it would be interesting to see what it was like at least once. Almost reminds me of one of those theme park attractions. I actually had a fiend who lived in the West End of Long Beach in a 2nd story unit which was built on lally columns. His ceiling lamp would sway and he had creaking noises when the winds went over 50mph. https://www.dezeen.com/2021/02/05/floods-and-high-winds-plague-residents-of-rafael-vinolys-432-park-avenue/

Yeah, the record SST warmth to the east of Japan when coupled with the Siberian air masses to the west over Northeast Asia really increase the gradient and Jet Stream across the Pacific. This leads to storm tracks cutting through the Great Lakes, hugging the I-78 to I-84 corridor, or getting suppressed to our south.This is why Philly to Boston experienced the lowest 7 year snowfall totals since 18-19 since the BM tracks have been missing. In the much warmer climate since the 1990s, we haven’t had an average to above an average snowfall season without an active 40/70 BM storm track. Prior to the 1990s we could get to closer to average snowfall without the BM tracks since the air masses were cold enough for more significant front end snows with the hugger tracks before the changeover occurred. We also used to get more snowy clippers in those days dropping to our south. But this storm track has shifted closer to the Great Lakes. Perhaps in the coming years we can find a way to shift the warm pool east of Japan a bit and allow that Jet to back off a bit. But it’s really a big unknown with the way the subtropical oceans have seen record warming in recent years. There was a record BM storm track from 09-10 to 17-18. This shifted to the opposite extreme since 18-19. We are reminded what happened with the storm track shift west of the APPS for State College. They had a record snowfall regime from the 60s to 90s with many historic inside runners just east of the APPS. That track had pretty much become dormant since 03-04. So there snowfall has been in steep decline since then as more storms are cutting west of the mountains now. We just don’t know enough about forecasting very long range storm track patterns to determine if the BM storm track goes the way of the inside runner east of the APPS or we can see at least some intermittent BM tracks in the coming years.

Yeah, the flooding has been terrible in those areas. A warmer atmosphere holds more moisture.So all the Great Lakes cutters focus the heaviest rains in those areas with the Gulf Inflow from the record SSTs there. Rainfall has been closer to average here recently as these systems tend to dry out crossing the mountains. So we have been spared the extreme flooding.

These combinations add an extra layer of complexity to what used to be more straightforward seasonal forecasts. So we get these competing influences which result in hybrid ENSO and PDO patterns. December really set the tone of the winter with the very impressive +PNA combined with the very fast Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet. You can see the WPAC forcing getting stretched east of the Dateline with the the SST warmth in the EPAC to Caribbean which we don’t normally see during La Ninas which usually have stronger subsidence there. So in effect we had competing marine heatwaves across the Pacific resulting in all these overlapping features. It makes it more challenging to get a clean ENSO and PDO response since the warm pools are in competing areas for the forcing to gravitate toward.

Your local area rainfall is also a function of the general pattern across the U.S. which has been much drier than average. It’s not a major drought by any means since the NYC system is in good shape but some of the NJ reservoirs are lower than average. More of an issue for gardeners and agriculture. Plus it doesn’t take much drought in the warm season for a feedback situation to enhance the warmth. Like we saw in the summer of 2022 and the fall of 2019. Plus the record 80° warmth on Long Island a few weeks ago could have had some feedback influence when combined with the downslope flow.

This was the first time after such a strong El Niño that Nino 1+2 continued to run so warm like we are seeing now. It’s quite possible that it contributed to the unusually strong +PNA we experienced this winter. But since the WPAC was so warm the NPAC Jet continued to dominate. So a bit of a combo between Niña-like and Nino-like influences. A variation on the 23-24 theme with the record Nino ridge in Canada interacting with the Nina-like warm pool in the WPAC causing the ridge to push further into the East like we typically see with La Ninas. So these combo patterns have resulted in below normal snowfall both winters from Philly to Boston.

We need to shift to a heavier than average rainfall regime to erase the drought.

Looks like the OP for next weekend is a cold outlier among its ensembles as the low should be further north instead cutting off south. But it still looks like more rain will be possible. The good news is that it appears like the drought could possibly be behind us. But we will need confirmation either way next several months to confirm. OP looks too cold vs ensemble

You simply aren’t reading my posts throughly. Instead you reply to me with responses based on how you want to answer determined by your predispositions. Waiting longer to measure the snow in the old days in fact resulted in lower measurements due to settling and compaction. So over time until the 1950s at some observing sites the 1990s snowfall measurements were taken post compaction. These days the measurements are done pre compaction. The resultant difference results in today’s measurements yielding 15 to 20% higher readings than the older ones. So guess what happens when you boost the older snowfall totals to account for this disparity in measurements? More stations than are already in long term snowfall decline show a steeper decline. The no trend stations show a downtrend. And stations with an increase have a lesser increase. As per the warmer atmosphere holds more moisture discussion you raised you are correct in one sense. Yes the warmer atmosphere and SSTs boosted snowfall totals during the 2010s. Plus we had a record number of benchmark storm tracks. So the snowfall totals during the 2010s were legit. But the older measurements would show higher totals using todays more frequent measurements. Remember we are talking about comparing the first order sites from the old times to new times. Since spotters and coop observers come and go over time and change locations. Plus the atmosphere was much colder in the older days. This allowed for less mixed precipitation and a greater percentage of total precipitation to fall as snow. So this in effect tried to balance out the less available moisture in a colder world. Plus the ratios were generally higher in those days since the atmosphere in the key dendritic growth layers was also colder. So using melted down snowfall gauge measurements and applying a simple 10:1 for events like the 1888 blizzard is a primitive way to measure snow based on modern understandings of meteorology. Just because no formal reanalysis of earlier snowfall hasn’t been done yet like has been done for hurricanes based on modern wind measuring analysis and correction doesn’t mean that those old measurements are untouchable and pristine as you suggest.

Light snow on the 12th to 13th. But getting 3 days or more in a row with 1.00”+ of precipitation is very rare. That’s why long range models often spread the heavy rain out too much over multiple days. As we usually have the rain focus more on 1 day or 24 hr period with nuisance rainfall or drizzle on the other days. Number of Consecutive Days Precipitation >= 1.00 for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 4 1975-09-23 through 1975-09-26 2 3 2018-11-24 through 2018-11-26 - 3 2005-10-12 through 2005-10-14 - 3 1977-09-24 through 1977-09-26 Number of Consecutive Days Precipitation >= 1.00 for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 4 1975-09-23 through 1975-09-26 2 3 2021-08-21 through 2021-08-23 - 3 2005-10-12 through 2005-10-14 - 3 1984-05-28 through 1984-05-30 - 3 1944-09-12 through 1944-09-14 - 3 1938-09-19 through 1938-09-21 - 3 1933-08-21 through 1933-08-23 - 3 1920-02-04 through 1920-02-06 - 3 1889-07-30 through 1889-08-01 - 3 1882-09-21 through 1882-09-23 Number of Consecutive Days Precipitation >= 1.00 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 3 1998-05-09 through 1998-05-11 - 3 1989-08-11 through 1989-08-13 - 3 1988-07-19 through 1988-07-21 - 3 1984-05-28 through 1984-05-30 - 3 1946-07-21 through 1946-07-23 - 3 1944-09-12 through 1944-09-14 - 3 1938-09-19 through 1938-09-21

Most of the rain fell on the 11th. Data for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1992-12-10 0.45 1992-12-11 2.55 1992-12-12 0.20 1992-12-13 0.05 Data for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1992-12-10 T 1992-12-11 2.65 1992-12-12 0.34 1992-12-13 0.02

But mesoscale banding and sharp snowfall gradients are nothing new with the biggest snowstorms. The commentary is more about changing measurement methods over time. So if many older snowstorms occurred today the amounts would be higher than the what appear in the records. Since there still hasn’t been a snowfall reanalysis to correct the old low biases.