bluewave

All the warm spots from Philly to Corona, Queens are pretty uniform around 30 days reaching 90°. 90° days for 2025 so far Philly…30 Highstown…32 TEB…31 EWR…33 Harrison….30 Corona…27

Warmer than areas to the east like Long Island which get regular cooling sea breezes. A few NJ COOP sites have been warmer recently. Harrison has been pretty close. NJ just happens to be a very warm area away from the sea breeze. Data for June 21, 2025 through July 31, 2025 Average Maximum Temperarure Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. SEABROOK FARMS COOP 92.8 INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP 92.6 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 91.5 Newark Area ThreadEx 91.5 HARRISON COOP 91.0 TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 90.7 OCEAN COUNTY AIRPORT WBAN 90.6 TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 90.5 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 90.2 BELVIDERE BRIDGE COOP 90.0 Belvidere Area ThreadEx 90.0 map Data for June 21, 2025 through July 31, 2025 Maximum Temperature Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 103 HARRISON COOP 103 Newark Area ThreadEx 103 OCEAN COUNTY AIRPORT WBAN 103 ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP WBAN 102 INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP 102 Atlantic City Area ThreadEx 102 MILLVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT WBAN 101 LONG BRANCH-OAKHURST COOP 101 CANOE BROOK COOP 101 TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 101 CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 101 ESTELL MANOR COOP 101 TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 101 SEABROOK FARMS COOP 100 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 100 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 100 SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 100 SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 100 PHILADELPHIA/MT. HOLLY WFO COOP 100 SALEM COOP 100 EB FORSYTHE NEW JERSEY RAWS 100 PENNSAUKEN 1N COOP 100

This Kara-Barents or Urals ridge has become the most impressive Arctic 500mb height anomaly since the sea ice shift to much lower in 2007 with a new lowest maximum in March 2025.

Nice improvements in the temperature department on the 0z runs. The models get Erin back to near 70W off the Carolinas. So it erodes the ridge and lowers the 500mb heights. This causes the current warm pattern to end by early next week. Tropical systems are often the wild card for us after mid-August heatwaves. They can stay offshore like the current guidance shows and still weaken the WAR or Southeast Ridge. The new runs now have lower heights in the East in just 12 hours. So we need later runs to get the storm back near 70W for the relaxation of the heat to continue. Remember, the long range pattern all summer has been to build heights higher than the original forecasts. But it often takes a tropical system to disrupt heat patterns along the East Coast this time of year. New run Old run New run Old run

Brown lawns across the CT Shoreline as BDR is working on their #1 driest summer on record and 6th warmest. Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT Driest June 1st through August 9th Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2025-08-09 2.34 0 2 1966-08-09 2.58 0 3 1999-08-09 2.72 0 4 1993-08-09 3.06 0 5 1964-08-09 3.37 0 6 1957-08-09 3.84 0 7 1994-08-09 3.99 0 8 1995-08-09 4.01 0 9 1955-08-09 4.08 0 10 1970-08-09 4.11 0 Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT Warmest June 1st Through August 9th Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2010-08-09 75.3 0 2 2020-08-09 75.2 0 3 2024-08-09 75.1 0 4 1994-08-09 75.0 0 5 2008-08-09 74.4 0 6 2025-08-09 74.3 0 7 2019-08-09 74.2 0 - 2016-08-09 74.2 0 - 2012-08-09 74.2 0 - 2011-08-09 74.2 0 - 1949-08-09 74.2 0 8 2013-08-09 74.1 0 9 2022-08-09 74.0 0 - 1999-08-09 74.0 0 10 1993-08-09 73.7 0 CT ANSONIA 1 NW COOP 2.20 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 2.34 NY BAYPORT 1.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 2.40 NJ HAWTHORNE 1.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 2.75 NJ RIVER VALE TWP 1.5 S CoCoRaHS 2.84 NJ CEDAR GROVE TWP 0.4 W CoCoRaHS 2.84 NY SHELTER ISLAND HEIGHTS 2.1 SSW CoCoRaHS 2.95 NY SAYVILLE 0.0 N CoCoRaHS 2.96 CT FAIRFIELD 1.5 NE CoCoRaHS 3.01 CT STRATFORD 0.9 W CoCoRaHS 3.05 CT GUILFORD CENTER 2.7 WSW CoCoRaHS 3.11 CT WATERFORD 2.3 S CoCoRaHS 3.17 CT WALLINGFORD CENTER 1.1 N CoCoRaHS 3.18

I guess the one piece of good news is that the original idea of the heat not rivaling the June and July widespread 100°+ temperatures will turn out to be correct this week. Since the models keep a very strong onshore flow influence. So maybe there could be a few local highs near 100° away from the sea breeze in NJ. But not the 103°-105° max heat of June and the 101°-103° max heat back in July. So at least we are making some progress in the right direction. But if we keep missing rainfall opportunities, then more 90°+ heat will be possible from time to time through September and maybe even into October. The big question is if the usual warm spots like Newark can get their first 100° after August 15th since 1993. That has been a tough record to beat. But it could only be a matter of time if one of these flash soil moisture type droughts overperforms.

It’s possible that the strongest polar blocking since the 2007 Arctic sea ice decline has been back closer to the Barents and Kara seas due to the open waters in those locations during the winter. Maybe the Arctic winter pattern from 2007-2025 has been some type of open water SST feedback ridge where there used to be thick ice during the winter. The older blocking intervals used to have the blocking focused closer to Greenland. The last 18 winters have had the blocking centered from the KB areas to the pole instead. So this could be making the blocking more AO dominant instead of NAO focused.

Much easier for JFK to go 10 days with minimums staying at or above 70°. Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 70 for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 29 1980-07-16 through 1980-08-13 2 24 2013-07-01 through 2013-07-24 - 24 1995-07-13 through 1995-08-05 3 21 2010-07-05 through 2010-07-25 - 21 1988-07-28 through 1988-08-17 4 20 2023-07-03 through 2023-07-22 5 19 2020-07-18 through 2020-08-05 6 18 1999-07-17 through 1999-08-03 7 17 1984-08-01 through 1984-08-17 8 16 2025-07-06 through 2025-07-21 - 16 2003-08-01 through 2003-08-16 9 15 1979-07-23 through 1979-08-06 10 14 2024-07-05 through 2024-07-18 - 14 2022-07-13 through 2022-07-26 - 14 2016-08-08 through 2016-08-21 - 14 2005-08-02 through 2005-08-15 - 14 1972-07-14 through 1972-07-27 - 14 1969-07-28 through 1969-08-10 11 13 2012-06-29 through 2012-07-11 - 13 1983-07-28 through 1983-08-09 - 13 1978-08-06 through 1978-08-18 12 12 2019-07-27 through 2019-08-07 - 12 2016-07-21 through 2016-08-01 - 12 2015-07-25 through 2015-08-05 - 12 1993-07-04 through 1993-07-15 - 12 1955-07-16 through 1955-07-27 - 12 1952-07-13 through 1952-07-24 - 12 1949-07-12 through 1949-07-23 13 11 2021-08-17 through 2021-08-27 - 11 2020-07-05 through 2020-07-15 - 11 2009-08-16 through 2009-08-26 - 11 1994-07-25 through 1994-08-04 - 11 1973-08-27 through 1973-09-06 - 11 1970-07-24 through 1970-08-03 - 11 1959-08-12 through 1959-08-22 - 11 1955-08-13 through 1955-08-23 - 11 1953-08-27 through 1953-09-06 14 10 2022-08-03 through 2022-08-12 - 10 2011-07-17 through 2011-07-26 - 10 2007-07-26 through 2007-08-04 - 10 2006-07-26 through 2006-08-04 - 10 2005-07-14 through 2005-07-23 - 10 1993-08-25 through 1993-09-03 - 10 1991-07-17 through 1991-07-26 - 10 1987-07-19 through 1987-07-28 - 10 1983-07-12 through 1983-07-21 - 10 1971-09-03 through 1971-09-12 - 10 1959-08-27 through 1959-09-05 - 10 1949-08-03 through 1949-08-12

That was 10-22-79 when there weren’t trees over the NYC ASOS. The warm spots in NYC made it to 90°. One spot in NJ made it to 88°. So that 87° at SMQ last year was the warmest so late for that station. But just behind Plainfield for the state record. Data for October 22, 1979 through October 22, 1979 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP 90 NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 88 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 88 NJ CRANFORD COOP 87 NY NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 87 NY WEST POINT COOP 86 CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 86 CT DANBURY COOP 86 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 86

Several spots only got a T to .01. But it goes to show how quickly we can get to record heat when we get dry in the much warmer climate. SMQ made it to 87° last October 22nd. That was the latest 87° in the year that SMQ was that warm. If that flash drought started over the summer and lasted into October, then 90° would have been possible. Data for October 22, 2024 through October 22, 2024 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 87 INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP 85 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 85 SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 85 SUSSEX AIRPORT WBAN 85 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 85

The warm spots in NJ had 2 separate 10 day heatwaves back in July and August of 2022. But you need to be west of the sea breeze front in NJ to open up multiple 10 day runs in the same season. The last 20 day heatwave in NJ was back in 1988. So 10 day heatwaves aren’t that big of a deal for the warm areas. But it’s very difficult east of the Hudson due to the enhanced sea breeze circulations in recent years. Plus the tree growth shading the NYC ASOS prevents 10 day heatwaves there. Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature >= 90 for HIGHTSTOWN 2 W, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 14 1995-07-24 through 1995-08-06 2 12 1953-08-25 through 1953-09-05 3 11 1999-07-24 through 1999-08-03 4 10 2022-08-03 through 2022-08-12 - 10 2022-07-17 through 2022-07-26

Really erratic rainfall pattern during the 2020s so far. Most of the months are either well above or well below on the rainfall. Not much balance. Monthly Total Precipitation for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2025 0.61 2.60 5.52 3.25 6.58 2.46 4.03 0.06 M M M M 25.11 2024 5.28 2.05 9.06 3.47 4.11 1.71 4.20 7.02 1.58 0.01 3.35 4.53 46.37 2023 4.38 1.28 3.32 7.70 1.28 1.62 5.34 6.56 14.25 3.90 2.95 6.71 59.29 2022 4.29 3.23 2.39 4.53 4.52 2.92 4.55 1.71 4.10 5.08 3.15 5.83 46.30 2021 2.31 5.13 3.41 2.69 4.36 2.62 11.09 10.32 10.03 5.26 1.12 1.39 59.73 2020 1.93 2.54 3.78 4.49 1.65 1.76 6.58 5.03 3.94 5.05 3.99 4.61 45.35

Both the 16-17 and 17-18 seasons were better around the NYC Metro coastal areas the further east on Long Island that you were. Same went for January 22 with spots from ACY to Suffolk County on Long Island doing better. 07-08, 06-07, and 01-02 were the 3 lowest snowfall seasons for the 2000s in my area. The good snowfall seasons were 00-01, 02-03, 03-04, 04-05, 05-06, and 08-09.

All the models agree on the warm spots starting the heatwave today through Wednesday. Then we get a front coming through on Thursday. But the GFS is the only model with much rainfall so it gets cooler for a few days before the 90s return by next Monday. The Euro and CMC don’t have much rainfall so the Euro brings the heat back faster. The Euro doesn’t dip much below 90° later this week at the NJ warm spots before the heat reloads again by next Sunday or Monday. The issue continues to be lack of rainfall. If we don’t see much rain later this week, then there is nothing stopping the heat from returning again in a week. If we can score some rainfall and cooler temperatures this Thursday and Friday, then we’ll get two separate heatwaves rather than a continuous one at the usual NJ warm spots. But as long as we continue to stay dry, the ridges keep reloading and we keep getting the heat.

You would want to eventually see a wetter pattern develop in order to push back against the heat. If we continue to stay this dry, then there is nothing stopping us from having heatwaves right into September or maybe even October. The tropics may turn out to be a wild card going forward. If we find a way to avoid any PREs and even some remnant tropical moisture, then we could be looking at another late summer and fall drought developing. Long range rainfall forecasting is often low skill. But the one constant is that heat will quickly dry things out when there isn’t any rain. During the cooler summers in the past, we could get by with less rain.

https://www.weather.gov/okx/Blizzard_Feb92017 Blizzard conditions occurred over Long Island, Southern Connecticut, and coastal portions of the Lower Hudson Valley from after sunrise into the late afternoon hours on February 9, 2017. Snowfall totals ranged from 6" across portions of northeast New Jersey to around 10" in New York City to 12-16" across Long Island, southern Connecticut, and the Lower Hudson Valley. Thundersnow was observed across portions of Long Island and southern Connecticut. Snowfall rates range from 1 to 3 inches per hour with locally 4 inches per hour at times. The blizzard brought delays and cancellations to the regions transportations systems as well as numerous accidents on roadways. Approximately 2,000 flight cancellations and numerous delays occurred at the three major airports, Kennedy, Newark, and LaGuardia. The Long Island Railroad had systemwide delays and cancelled 20 trains. Multiple car accidents occurred on roads as well as several hundred rescues were performed by police/fire on Long Island. Â Other Facts A cold front associated with low pressure across southeast Canada moved across the region on Wednesday February 8. Behind the cold front, an upper level trough amplfied across the midwest. Energy within this trough acted on the cold front to develop a new low pressure across the Middle Atlantic. This low pressure rapidly intensified as it moved off the Delmarva coast the morning of Thursday February 9 and then to the south and east of Long Island later later that day. The southeast coast of Long Island including the eastern Hamptons and Montauk were warmer at the onset of the storm. Montauk was 41 degrees between 9 and 10 am in rain, before dropping to around 32 by 11 am in heavy snow. The day before the blizzard (Wednesday February 8), record warmth was observed across the Tri-State area. Record highs ranged from 62 at Central Park, NY to 65 at Newark, NJ. Temperatures dropped 30-40 degrees in 12-15 hours as readings were in the middle-upper 20s during the height of the blizzard.

Way too early for exact tracks. The EPS spread is all over the place as you would expect this far out. Some tracks closer to the SE and others OTS. But as long as there is high pressure to the north, any tropical system underneath will maintain a cooler onshore flow here.

Don’t mind the warmth during the winters as long as there are great snowfall outcomes. The NYC Metro first began to get these warmer and snowy winter combos back in the mid-2000s. The first half of January 2005 began at record warm levels but reversed mid-month to record cold and very snowy. Then the 2005-2006 winter started cold and snowy in December. This was followed by record warmth in January with some spots in the Midwest around +15°. Then the cold and snow returned in February with the 2nd heaviest snowstorm on record in NYC. We had a mild start to winter in 2012-2013 followed by one of the greatest February snowstorms on record from LI into SNE in February. The 2015-2016 winter stated with the +13.3 December followed by the heaviest snowstorm on record in January. The 2016-2017 winter featured 60s record warmth the day before the February blizzard and a very mild January and February. 2017-2018 winter had record cold and snow from from December into January before the record 80° warmth in February. Then the record breaking March monthly snowfall on Long Island. 2020-2021 was a milder than average winter which also turned out very snowy. We had the record warmth in December 2021 followed by the cold and snowy January especially Eastern sections of NYC Metro. January 2022 was our last cold and snowy month. So the warmth began to emerge periodically around NYC Metro while it was still very snowy. But unfortunately the warming continued while the snowfall declined over the last 7 seasons. Since the storm tracks shifted further north warming the storm tracks. Our last semblance of a colder storm track was back in January 2022. Maybe with some luck we can see at least a few months the rest of the 2020s with colder storm tracks somewhat reflecting January 2022 . Wouldn’t mind even a weaker reflection of that month with just a single KU instead of the multiple events that month. But the record Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet has been very persistent since 2018-2019 leading to the dominant storm tracks through the Great Lakes.

Almost like a weaker reflection of last January when the coldest departures and rankings went to our south. It was the coolest first week of August in Charlotte, NC. This followed the 2nd warmest June and July. Time Series Summary for CHARLOTTE DOUGLAS AIRPORT, NC Top 5 Coolest August 1st-7th Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2025-08-07 71.9 0 2 1985-08-07 73.3 0 3 1998-08-07 74.1 0 - 1974-08-07 74.1 0 4 1969-08-07 74.4 0 5 2014-08-07 74.6 0 - 1948-08-07 74.6 0 Time Series Summary for CHARLOTTE DOUGLAS AIRPORT, NC Top 5 Warmest June 1st-July 31st Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1986-07-31 82.7 0 2 2025-07-31 82.4 0 3 1993-07-31 82.1 0 4 2015-07-31 81.1 0 - 2010-07-31 81.1 0 5 2024-07-31 81.0 0

I was talking about the August 10-17 period in that post. Thankfully, we have not seen the kind of drought which drove those 103° to 105° August and September heatwaves. All our 103°-105°+ heat since the record summer warmth began in 2010 has occurred in June and July. Those 40s and 50s heatwaves and a few earlier events occurred later in the season. Next week is looking like more of an over the top heat wave. Latest runs have more onshore flow. So both models showing 102° a few days ago for next Wednesday have cooled 3-4° down to a 98°-99° max. But it wouldn’t take much for somebody at the usual warm spots to reach 100°. So it continues to look like our peak heat in 2025 was back in June. With each succeeding heatwave moderating a bit as the season goes on. It’s impressive that both models have 98°-100° potential for parts of Maine and Canada. This is part of the record Canadian heat and drought resulting in the unprecedented wildfires in Canada. So with all this onshore flow in recent years, the JFK 32 days reaching 90° back in 2010 will be safe for another year.

There were some early signs that the ridge in the East was becoming much stronger back in December 2015. It was the first 50° December around NYC Metro which was a +13.3° even against the warmer climate normals. It backed off and we had the great January into early February. The 2016-2017 winter continued the strong ridging but the storm track was still in colder mode since 09-10. February 2018 had what Ryan called that bananas record 500 mb height with the first 80° warmth in February around NYC Metro. 18-19 continued the ridge in the Northeast but the storm track shifted warmer through the Great Lakes. So we began the current 7 year stretch of record low snowfall. 20-21 briefly had more of a benchmark track especially near the start of February. But the record Binghampton 40” snowstorm in December featured the -AO linking up with the ridge east of New England forcing the storm track too far west for NYC to Boston to get the heaviest totals. Then the serious flash flood and landslide at the ski resorts on Christmas as the ridge flexed pushing the storm track north with 50s into the mountains. December 2021 had the record ridging from the Southern Plains to the East with the record +13 at DFW. Brief January return to Benchmark storm tracks followed by a milder February. January 2022 was the last time many areas around NYC Metro had a cold and snowy winter month. 2022-2023 and 2023-2024 continued the very strong ridge near the Northeast. January was the only month last winter that the ridge in the East was suppressed. But since we were in a La Niña pattern, the Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet remained too strong. So the much weaker STJ was easily suppressed and the Gulf Coast got the historic snows. My guess is if it was a strong enough El Niño instead, perhaps the STJ could have been juiced enough to force the storm track further north into the Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England. But yeah like in the post below, we continue to set new 500mb records throughout most seasons of the year.

Parts of the region are running 56 to 1 for top ten warmest to coldest months since 2010.

Yeah, I was just discussing this shift across the seasons a few days ago. The mid-latitude ridge from Japan across the U.S. to Europe has been a new dominant player since the 18-19. This has lessened the influence of the usual higher latitude teleconnections like the WPO, EPO,PNA,AO, and NAO. So we have been getting strong Southeast ridge patterns even with -EPO,+PNA, -WPO,-AO, and -NAO. It essentially forces the winter storm track further north through the Great Lakes. So in February we had our first -5 -AO result in a strong cutter leading to the record snows in Toronto and Montreal instead of the typical KU storm track. We also saw the -EPO +PNA merger back in December with the mid-latitude ridge leading to the 4th warmest December on record in the CONUS with what used to be colder teleconnections when this mid-latitude ridge was absent in the past. During January the 850 mb cold pool was at the smallest on record. So what used to be very cold telconnections in the past were much milder than past instances with similar higher latitude teleconnections. I also posted the other day on how we just set a new all-time July record 500 mb height record from Japan to Europe along 40N to 50N. This is why the Southeast ridge was the strongest on record for July even with a strong -EPO and +PNA block on the Pacific side. Past instances of such a strong ridge in the East had more of a -PNA and weaker blocking near Alaska than we have been seeing over the last decade. So this new mid-latitude ridge is becoming its own teleconnection leading to new combinations of 500mb patterns that we used to get before 18-19.

Officially the coolest start to August since 2013 which was a nice break from the wall to wall heat since late June. Hoping the 0z Euro has a clue about the more onshore flow and the 100° heat misses to the north in Maine. But the GFS still has more westerly flow and gets the warm spots to 101° on Wednesday. We are one of the parts of the country where a small shift to more southerly flow can make the difference between 90s and low 100s. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ August 1-7 Average Temperature Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2025-08-07 74.5 1 2024-08-07 81.7 0 2023-08-07 75.6 0 2022-08-07 83.1 0 2021-08-07 75.6 0 2020-08-07 78.7 0 2019-08-07 77.9 0 2018-08-07 82.2 0 2017-08-07 74.9 0 2016-08-07 75.8 0 2015-08-07 79.1 0 2014-08-07 75.9 0 2013-08-07 73.2 0 2012-08-07 80.4 0 2011-08-07 80.6 0 2010-08-07 79.9 0

The 0z Euro backed off the 100° heat and has more onshore flow. But the GFS still has 101° heat on Wednesday. With the late July heatwave, the Euro had a cool bias and missed a few of the 100s that verified. Would be nice if this 0z Euro had a clue and the 100° heat misses to our north in Maine.