bluewave

All Newark needs to have another year with 40 days reaching 90° is to approach the 2010-2024 average of 11 days after July 31st. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Most 90° Days Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2010 54 0 2 2022 49 0 - 1993 49 0 3 1988 43 0 4 2021 41 0 - 2002 41 0 - 1991 41 0 5 2016 40 0 - 1983 40 0 - 1959 40 0 6 1994 39 0 - 1944 39 0 7 2005 37 0 - 1987 37 0 8 2018 36 0 - 1949 36 0 9 2015 35 0 10 1961 34 0 11 2024 33 0 - 2012 33 0 - 1999 33 0 - 1995 33 0 - 1966 33 0 12 1955 32 0 - 1953 32 0 - 1943 32 0 13 2020 31 0 - 2011 31 0 - 1973 31 0 - 1952 31 0 14 2025 30 151 Monthly Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ AVG 90° days Aug to Oct Since 2010 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 8 3 0 11 2024 7 0 0 7 2023 5 6 0 11 2022 18 1 0 19 2021 13 1 0 14 2020 9 0 0 9 2019 4 3 1 8 2018 14 4 0 18 2017 2 3 0 5 2016 13 5 0 18 2015 13 5 0 18 2014 2 3 0 5 2013 3 1 0 4 2012 7 2 0 9 2011 4 0 0 4 2010 11 6 0 17

Updating for July 2025 with several spots in NJ approaching and exceeding 10 inches of rain for the month. Monthly Data for July 2025 for New Jersey Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. AEROFLEX-ANDOVER AIRPORT WBAN 16.54 HOWELL TWP 3.7 SSW CoCoRaHS 12.87 JACKSON TWP 4.9 ENE CoCoRaHS 12.22 MANASQUAN 1 NW COOP 9.75 WALL TWP 2.5 ENE CoCoRaHS 9.58 NORTH BRUNSWICK TWP 1.5 W CoCoRaHS 9.28 STAFFORD TWP 2.8 NNW CoCoRaHS 9.26 MANASQUAN 1.0 WNW CoCoRaHS 8.96 WOODBRIDGE TWP 3.0 NNW CoCoRaHS 8.76 GREEN BROOK TWP 0.9 S CoCoRaHS 8.60 CLARK TWP 0.7 SSW CoCoRaHS 8.58 HAMILTON TWP 4.5 NW CoCoRaHS 8.53 LONG HILL TWP 1.8 WSW CoCoRaHS 8.52 CLARK TWP 1.3 ENE CoCoRaHS 8.44 NEW PROVIDENCE 0.8 ESE CoCoRaHS 8.41 EDISON TWP 1.9 N CoCoRaHS 8.33 NEPTUNE CITY 0.1 E CoCoRaHS 8.22 Atlantic City Area ThreadEx 8.08 ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP WBAN 8.08 WESTFIELD 0.8 WSW CoCoRaHS 8.06 SOUTH BRUNSWICK TWP 3.1 NW CoCoRaHS 7.77 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 7.69 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 7.69

Sad to see so much flood damage in Bayside, Queens.

This is going to be the best first week of August weather we have seen in years. Very impressive Canadian high pressure will dominate. The easterly flow will keep the temperatures comfortable for this time of year with a break in the record heat that we experienced from late June through July. The high pressure will keep most of the rain to our south.

Yeah, we would get smaller Canadian wildfires back in those days. We even had smoke in the late 80s from wildfires in the Appalachians. But the Canadian wildfires have been at record levels since 2023. June 6-8, 2023 was a first for our area having such thick smoke. A recent study found that the smoke dropped our temperatures by 5°F. https://www.rmets.org/metmatters/worst-air-quality-world-wildfire-smog-smothers-new-york The Wednesday morning air quality was bad. The day began in the “red” with AQIs in the 151-200 range. An AQI in that range has only occurred a handful of times in the last few decades in the city. Still, New Yorkers tried to continue with their daily routine activities. By late Wednesday morning, the grey blob as seen from the ABI visible band on GOES satellite, showed the highest concentration of smoke flowing across Lake Ontario, Upstate New York and into the City region. Shortly after, the skies went dark over the city by 2pm, and air quality continued to worsen through the evening. The AQI was above 480 on Wednesday evening in NYC, technically off the chart. NYC’s air quality was quickly compared to large cities in India and China known for their chronic pollution. At that point, New York City had the worst air quality in the world. The pollution was bad enough to cancel outdoor after-school activities for the 1.1 million students in the largest public school system in the country, and prompt a shift to remote learning for the following days. https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/asl.1306?af=R#:~:text=During the fire season of,(NYC) and its surroundings. https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-025-02214-3

We have seen this 2025 pattern in recent years during 2021 and 2017 when the highest temperatures of the year occurred in June. The most recent heatwave peaked several degrees lower. So based on past statistics, the best chance for Newark to see 100° heat in August has been before August 15th since 1994. 1993 was the last time Newark reached 100° after August 15th. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Years with 100° days after August 15th Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1953-10-31 105 0 2 1948-10-31 103 0 3 1881-10-31 101 2 4 1993-10-31 100 0 - 1973-10-31 100 0 Dates of all August 100° heat at Newark since 1994 8-1-24…100° 8-9-22..101° 8-3-06..101° 8-13-05…102° 8-13-02…100° 8-9-01…..105°

These summer days under 80° have become a rarity over time.

Just a little ahead of the regular EPS but both systems are scoring much better than the GEFS.

Warmest July on record at HVN,FWN,DXR,MTP, and the Charlotteburg Reservior. 2nd warmest finish at HPN and ISP. SMQ had their 3rd warmest July and highest average maximum daily dew point at 74.3°. FWN also had their highest average maximum dew point at 72.3°. JFK had their 2nd highest average maximum dew point at 73.2° behind the record of 74.2° in 2019. So a continuation of the shift to Mid-Atlantic dew points during summers over the last decade. Time Series Summary for CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2025 77.0 2 2 2020 76.1 0 3 2024 75.8 0 4 2019 75.4 0 5 1935 75.3 6 6 2010 75.1 0 7 2013 75.0 3 - 1894 75.0 8 8 1955 74.9 2 9 2023 74.3 0 - 2022 74.3 0 10 2008 74.2 16 - 1949 74.2 0 Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2025 78.8 0 2 2013 78.6 0 3 2024 78.3 0 - 2020 78.3 0 4 2022 78.1 0 5 2023 78.0 1 6 2019 77.9 0 7 2010 77.3 0 8 2012 76.6 0 9 2011 76.4 0 10 2008 75.9 0 Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2025 76.9 0 2 2020 76.5 0 3 2024 75.7 0 4 2019 75.3 0 5 2023 74.8 0 6 2013 74.6 0 7 2011 74.5 0 8 2022 74.4 0 9 2012 74.3 0 - 2006 74.3 0 10 2010 74.1 2 Time Series Summary for DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP, CT - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2025 77.1 0 2 1999 76.4 8 3 2024 76.1 1 - 2023 76.1 0 4 2022 75.9 0 5 2013 75.7 0 6 2020 75.6 0 7 2010 74.7 0 8 2019 74.6 0 9 2012 74.1 0 10 2011 74.0 0 Time Series Summary for MONTAUK AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2025 77.0 3 2 2024 76.7 1 3 2023 76.5 2 4 2013 76.1 0 5 2020 75.9 0 - 2010 75.9 0 6 2022 75.5 0 - 2011 75.5 0 7 2019 75.1 0 8 2015 74.9 0 9 2012 74.7 0 10 2006 74.6 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1999 78.5 1 2 2025 77.3 1 3 2013 77.0 0 - 2010 77.0 0 4 2020 76.9 0 5 2022 76.8 0 - 2019 76.8 0 6 1966 76.7 0 - 1955 76.7 2 7 2024 76.6 0 - 2011 76.6 1 8 2012 76.4 0 9 2016 76.3 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1999 78.6 0 2 2025 78.5 0 3 2019 78.1 0 4 2013 78.0 0 - 2010 78.0 0 5 2020 77.7 0 6 2011 77.6 0 7 1994 77.3 0 8 2022 77.1 0 9 2023 77.0 0 10 2024 76.9 0 Time Series Summary for SOMERSET AIRPORT, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1999 78.5 1 2 2024 78.3 0 3 2025 78.0 0 - 2020 78.0 0 4 2022 77.9 0 5 2019 77.5 0 - 2011 77.5 0 6 2013 77.4 0 7 2012 76.9 0 8 2023 76.8 0 - 2003 76.8 25 9 2016 76.7 0 - 2010 76.7 0 10 2006 76.4 0

Much more comfortable start to August. Models actually keep the strongest warm departures next few weeks to our north. Very strong high pressure building in Canada will keep us in a cooler onshore flow. While the models warm the pattern in mid-August, it’s an over the top warm up. So it’s possible for most of the area that the 100° heat is done for this summer. Since most times we had 100° heat in June and July August didn’t make it back to 100°. The pattern this summer so far has been a step down in high temperatures since late June. This most recent heatwave wasn’t as strong as the one in June was. Based on past statistics, any heatwave in mid-August will probably be weaker than this one was. But we can’t rule out another 100° reading at the usual warm spots in NJ. Just that it will probably not be at the level that this week was. Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Newark 100° Temperatures in June and July Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2025 103 101 M 103 2021 103 97 99 103 2011 102 108 98 108 1994 102 99 95 102 1993 102 105 100 105 1952 102 98 92 102 1943 102 95 97 102 1988 101 101 99 101 1966 101 105 95 105 2024 100 99 100 100 1959 100 93 96 100 1953 100 99 102 102 1934 100 98 90 100 1923 100 99 92 100

Found a local Wunderground site in Bayside that reported 7.65” in one hour. I am not familiar with this site. But the radar can underestimate the actual rainfall in these extreme events. Home weather stations can struggle to be accurate with so much rain falling in a short time. But it seems like from the flood reports over the hood of the car that it’s plausible 5.00”+fell in around an hour. https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNYNEWYO1905/table/2025-07-31/2025-07-31/daily 04 PM 82.2 °F 74.5 °F 78 % NE 5.4 mph 7.6 mph 29.95 in 0.01 in 0.02 in w/m² 2:09 PM 80.7 °F 74.9 °F 83 % NE 6.4 mph 8.3 mph 29.95 in 0.15 in 0.16 in w/m² 2:14 PM 79.2 °F 75.1 °F 87 % ENE 6.6 mph 8.8 mph 29.95 in 0.63 in 0.64 in w/m² 2:19 PM 77.6 °F 74.8 °F 91 % East 11.5 mph 13.3 mph 29.95 in 1.15 in 1.16 in w/m² 2:24 PM 76.3 °F 74.1 °F 93 % East 12.5 mph 14.1 mph 29.95 in 1.79 in 1.80 in w/m² 2:29 PM 75.4 °F 73.6 °F 94 % ESE 14.7 mph 16.7 mph 29.95 in 2.58 in 2.59 in w/m² 2:34 PM 73.8 °F 72.3 °F 95 % East 15.4 mph 18.1 mph 29.95 in 3.23 in 3.24 in w/m² 2:39 PM 72.5 °F 71.0 °F 95 % ESE 7.9 mph 12.3 mph 29.96 in 4.08 in 4.09 in w/m² 2:44 PM 72.5 °F 71.0 °F 95 % ESE 5.9 mph 9.2 mph 29.96 in 4.29 in 4.30 in w/m² 2:49 PM 73.0 °F 71.8 °F 96 % ESE 9.3 mph 10.9 mph 29.97 in 5.06 in 5.07 in w/m² 2:54 PM 72.9 °F 71.7 °F 96 % ESE 9.8 mph 11.1 mph 29.97 in 6.52 in 6.53 in w/m² 2:59 PM 72.9 °F 71.8 °F 96 % ESE 9.4 mph 12.1 mph 29.97 in 7.44 in 7.49 in w/m² 3:04 PM 72.9 °F 72.0 °F 97 % East 8.8 mph 12.0 mph 29.97 in 7.60 in 7.65 in w/m²

Dangerous flash flooding being reported with that back building cell near Bayside.

Yeah, the 1970s were a wild decade living in Long Beach. First, I got flooded out of my basement apartment for a week in 1972 when TS Agnes came ashore with the very heavy rains. Then the December 1974 Nor’easter which flooded the streets with a tidal surge in front of my elementary school. 1976 featured Hurricane Belle in early August when the ocean met the bay in the West End. My friends lived on Gerogia Ave and the tidal surge pushed the ticket booth for the beach passes down the street. Then the record cold at the end of August with 50 around NYC and 30s to the north and west.That was the coldest winter that I ever experienced. It was so cold that I wasn’t able to get down to the local waterways to see how much ice there was. Then the January 1978 ice storm which was the worst on the South Shore until January 1994. This was followed by the surprise January 1978 15” snowstorm when heavy rains were forecast. Followed by the epic February 1978 blizzard and snow drifts that the LB city bus got stuck in. Next on the memorable events list was our coldest 2 week stretch in February 1979 and the PD 1 snowstorm. The only two major heatwaves in that record cold decade were late August 1973 and mid-July 1977. Outside those two short periods there really wasn’t much need to even turn on the AC much living in Long Beach. Just using a fan was enough most of the time.

Too bad we didn’t have the forum back in 1976. Can you imagine what the speculation of what the winter would have been like after the record cold in late August? It would have also been great to have social media with everyone posting photos. The amount of ice on the local waterways by late January 1977 was epic. But there aren’t that many photos still available. All I remember from that winter was how cold it was in the mornings waiting at the bus stop. Monthly Data for August 1976 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY WALDEN 1 ESE COOP 37 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 38 CT DANBURY COOP 38 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 39 NY CARMEL COOP 39 CT WESTBROOK COOP 39 CT MOUNT CARMEL COOP 39 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 40 CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 40 NY SCARSDALE COOP 40 CT MIDDLETOWN 4 W COOP 40 NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 41 CT NORWALK GAS PLANT COOP 41 NJ ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG COOP 42 NY SUFFERN COOP 42 NY WEST POINT COOP 42 NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W COOP 42 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 42 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 43 NY BEDFORD HILLS COOP 43 CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN 43 CT GROTON COOP 43 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 44 NY MIDDLETOWN 2 NW COOP 44 NY NEW YORK BOTANICAL GARDEN COOP 45 NY PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP 45 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 45 NY NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 46 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 46 NY MINEOLA COOP 46 NY BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 46 CT NEW HAVEN COOP 47 NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP 47 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 48 NJ MIDLAND PARK COOP 48 NJ JERSEY CITY COOP 50 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 50 Monthly Data for August 1976 for Mount Holly NJ NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. PA TOBYHANNA POCONO MOUNTAIN ARPT WBAN 34 PA BELTZVILLE DAM COOP 35 NJ INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP 36 NJ NEWTON COOP 36 PA EAST STROUDSBURG COOP 37 NJ SUSSEX 1 NW COOP 37 NJ MORRIS PLAINS 1 W COOP 37 NJ FLEMINGTON 5 NNW COOP 38 NJ SOMERVILLE 4 NW COOP 38 PA PERKASIE COOP 39 PA PALMERTON COOP 39 NJ CHATSWORTH COOP 39 PA GEORGE SCHOOL COOP 39 Monthly Data for August 1976 for Burlington VT NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY LAKE PLACID 2 S COOP 27 NY RAY BROOK COOP 28 VT WOODSTOCK COOP 29 VT NORTHFIELD 3 SSE COOP 29 VT NORTHFIELD COOP 29 VT MOUNT MANSFIELD COOP 29 VT SUTTON 2NE COOP 29

The main issue for those areas in NJ with the steadily warming minimums has been insect damage. https://www.njweather.org/content/seasonal-trends-extreme-minimum-temperatures-six-new-jersey-locations

Dipping into the upper 30s periodically back then in July probably wasn’t that much of an issue for the growing season. But August lowest temperatures in the 30s at the Charolotteburg Reservior were a much more common occurrence. They haven’t dropped below 50° in August since 2017. Their last 30s in August was in 1986. Their earliest first freeze was on 8-25-40. 9-7-84 was their last freeze during the first week of September. So rural NJ used to have a much shorter growing season than it has now. The average first freeze was September 26th from 1895 to 1910. From 2010 to 2024 the average first freeze is on October 22nd.

Ben Noll posted some of the maps showing the record high dew points on X.

The 79° dew point at Philly is tied for the highest ever at 11am. Philadelphia PTSUNNY 89 79

This July was a continuation of the rural spots in NJ not dropping below 50°. Prior to the big increase of our summer temperatures in 2010, they would regularly have the monthly low temperature in the 40s. Before 1960 some spots would occasionally drop into the 30s. The lowest July temperatures have risen by around +10 since 1893 at spots like Charlotteburg Reservior, NJ.

Lowest SAL on record across the Atlantic this July by a wide margin. So as the tropical SSTs continue to warm and lower the difference the tropics and mid-latitudes, we could see another late bloomer type season like we have been getting in recent years. The overall ACE really isn’t that important if we get a few really intense late season hurricanes close in along the Gulf Coast like as has been the case over the last decade.

Tampa just set their highest heat index at 119°. SMQ reached 118° for the 1st time back in June. This July at SMQ was the highest average max dew point at 74.2°. This is similar to July at RDU. So the Mid-Atlantic dew points have shifted north into our area. JFK finished at the 2nd highest avg max dew point at 73.1° just behind the record of 74.1° in 2019.

The high temperature potential gets a little lower following each deluge. We were 103°-105° back in June. Then the record rains a few weeks ago. So this warm up only made it to 101° -103°. Maybe when the temps rebound again after the first week of August the max potential will only be 97° -100°. We’ll see how it goes.

Looks like our 2nd chance this summer for some part of the area going 5”+ with the record dew points and PWATS. limatologist49‬ ‪@climatologist49.bsky.social‬ · 9d Stations that have recorded at least 5" of precipitation in a day in 2025 through July 19th. Most of these are CoCoRaHS stations. 4

SE flow is cooler off Newark Bay and SW is warmer off the land there.

You can see how sensitive the Newark is to local sea breezes since it’s right on the water. Was 93° a little over an hour ago on a light SE breeze. But jumped up to 99° last few minutes on a SSW flow. Jul 30, 2:25 pm 99 65 33 102 SSW 6 10.00 FEW050 29.93 29.95 Jul 30, 2:20 pm 99 65 33 102 SW 8 10.00 FEW050 29.93 29.95 Jul 30, 2:15 pm 97 65 35 99 ENE 3 10.00 FEW050 29.94 29.96 Jul 30, 2:10 pm 97 63 33 98 SSE 7 10.00 FEW050 29.94 29.96 Jul 30, 2:05 pm 97 65 35 99 10.00 FEW050 29.94 29.96 Jul 30, 2:00 pm 97 65 35 99 ESE 6 10.00 FEW050 29.94 29.96 Jul 30, 1:55 pm 97 63 33 98 SSE 6 10.00 FEW050 29.94 29.96 Jul 30, 1:51 pm 96 63 34 98 S 7 10.00 FEW050 FEW150 BKN260 1014.60 29.94 29.96 97 87 Jul 30, 1:50 pm 97 63 33 98 SSE 7 10.00 FEW050 29.94 29.96 Jul 30, 1:45 pm 97 63 33 98 SSE 6 10.00 FEW050 FEW120 29.94 29.96 Jul 30, 1:40 pm 97 63 33 98 S 8 10.00 FEW050 FEW120 29.95 29.97 Jul 30, 1:35 pm 97 63 33 98 SSE 8 10.00 FEW050 FEW120 29.95 29.97 Jul 30, 1:30 pm 95 63 35 96 S 9 10.00 FEW050 FEW120 29.95 29.97 Jul 30, 1:25 pm 97 63 33 98 S 7 10.00 FEW050 FEW120 29.95 29.97 Jul 30, 1:20 pm 97 63 33 98 SSE 6 10.00 FEW050 FEW120 29.95 29.97 Jul 30, 1:15 pm 93 63 36 94 SE 7 10.00 FE