bluewave

That’s what allowed JFK to set the November monthly max of 82° last year. Flash drought permitted JFK to beat the previous record by a full 2°. If this had occurred back in July instead, then it would have been the first 106°high at JFK. Since that is +2° over the all-time summer max set back in 1966. Also notice the record ridge building from the Great Lakes and westerly flow on November 1st, 2024. This pattern has been missing during our summers since 2013. The Euro summer forecast is wet for our area. So probably noting as dry as last September into October this July into August. But with the major drought out West, pieces of the heat can come east from time to time with drier 1 to perhaps 2 week periods. Wouldn’t take much for a day or two of westerly flow and JFK making a run in its first 100° since 2013. But specifics like that will probably have to wait until we get past the solstice. 100° heat since 2013 has been restricted to interior Queens from Corona to LGA and NJ. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Nov maximum temperatures Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2024 82 0 2 2022 80 0 - 1950 80 1 3 1993 77 0 - 1982 77 0 - 1975 77 0 4 1974 76 0 5 2015 75 0 - 2003 75 0 - 1990 75 0

At least we are doing better than the areas further to our north.These stuck weather patterns are the real deal. The record warm Great Lakes since last fall has given the areas to the east precipitation on every weekend going back to November. So plenty of precipitation with the dominant Great Lakes cutter storm tracks.

This rainfall gradient almost reminds me of the snowfall gradient during 93-94. Heaviest rains further north in spots like the Poconos. But less than half the totals closer to Central NJ. Data for May 1, 2025 through June 11, 2025 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. PA MOUNT POCONO 0.7 N CoCoRaHS 14.44 PA POCONO MOUNTAINS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT WBAN 14.06 PA STRAUSSTOWN 1.5 N CoCoRaHS 13.28 NJ BUTLER 0.5 NE CoCoRaHS 13.23 PA BATH 1.7 WNW CoCoRaHS 12.74 PA QUAKERTOWN 1.9 NNE CoCoRaHS 12.65 PA SPRINGTOWN 1 NNE COOP 12.46 PA ALLENTOWN 2.6 WNW CoCoRaHS 12.46 NJ FREEHOLD TWP 0.3 NE CoCoRaHS 5.32 NJ NEPTUNE TWP 2.2 E CoCoRaHS 5.31 NJ OCEAN TWP 0.8 SE CoCoRaHS 5.29 NJ LOWER TWP 3.9 NNW CoCoRaHS 5.28

The period right after the solstice looks like our first 95°+ major heat potential especially in the usual warm spots as a piece of the Western drought feedback heat starts moving east. The source region is very dry. So even though we have been very wet, any heat coming from that area will have the potential to overperform at least for a few days. Warmer and drier June 23 to 30 on EPS forecast

The average high temperatures during July 2022 were in the low 90s at many spots in NJ. Monthly Data for July 2022 for New Jersey Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 92.1 Newark Area ThreadEx 92.1 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 92.1 SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 91.5 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 91.4 CANOE BROOK COOP 91.4 SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 91.4 HARRISON COOP 91.0 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 90.5 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 90.5

The amount of cooling can vary depending on the conditions. But the current 9mT in Wantagh is 0.7° cooler than the 2m. So a NYC taller building roof top could be significantly cooler than 2m.

The issue with rooftop stations is that the temperatures generally decline with height unless there is an inversion. We see this with the new micronet stations and BNL which have sensors at multiple heights. So the higher sensors usually run cooler than 2m unless there is a radiational cooling inversion. You have to remember that JFK ASOS is in a marshy area right on the bay. So a few miles makes a big difference especially when the sea breeze is restricted within a mile or two of the ocean or bay. The ASOS could be 85° on the water while the areas a few miles north are 90°. I saw this all the time growing up in Long Beach.

Yeah, at least during the warm season when the dew points frequently get over 70°. The 75°+ dew points number is nearly as high as the Delmarva used to get before 2010. One of the biggest risks is flash flooding since a warmer atmosphere holds moisture.

Yeah, the number of 70° minimums has been on a very steep increase right up into Northern New England with the record high dew points.

The atmosphere was much drier in those days than it is now. So even though the background pattern wasn’t as warm, it was easier near the shore with westerly flow to reach 100° from time to time. So extended 90° heatwaves were easier to achieve. This is why we haven’t had a 20 day official heatwave around the region since 1988. While the overall summer temperatures have been on the rise, the high end 100°+ heat has been missing since 2013 due to all the onshore flow and rain. Plus the higher dewpoints allow the 70° minimums to increase at faster rate than the 90° maximums. Also notice how much faster the 85°day count is increasing above the 90° day count. This is pointing to a much more humid climate with more clouds and showers. Higher dew points also prevent the overnight lows from dropping as low as they used to.

Yeah, we need westerly flow and dry conditions for areas closer to the coast to reach 100°. This is why places like JFK and ISP haven’t hit 100° since 2013. Generally above average summer temps, high dewpoints, and rainy. But we can’t set records for 90°+,95°+, and 100°+ days type extreme heat.

We won’t see anything like the extreme heat the areas closer to the coast got those summers as long as this wet onshore flow patterns continue.

Heaviest rains continue to focus in the same areas. Climatologist49 ‪@climatologist49.bsky.social‬ Follow May 2025 precipitation ranking compared to all Mays since 1895. Many areas from east Texas through New England had a Top 10, Top 5, or their wettest May on record. June 1, 2025 at 11:30 PM Everybody can reply

LGA made it to 100° also. 6-30-21 was the last time they did there. It was when a piece of the record Western heat came east. Now with the major drought out West the record heat is beginning to focus out there again. So we will need to watch for another piece of that heat coming east if the ridges can link up again from after the summer solstice. Anytime there is such a major drought out West, there is always the chance that 100° heat can come east if we can dry out for a week to 10 days. But since we didn’t get any 90° heat back in May, the chances for a high number of 100° and 90° days like 2010 and 2022 is less likely. But it doesn’t rule out generally above average summer temperatures and a few days in the 95° to 100° range at the usual warm spots like in NJ and in Central Queens. June 30,2021 highs Astoria……..100° Corona.…….103° LGA………....100° EWR…………103° Harrison…...101° Caldwell……100°

That’s what happened at the end of June 2021. But the PACNW was much warmer with the historic heat there. Our area made it to the low 100s away from the immediate shore areas.

That is the COOP which is missing several days of data. The airport is +2.9 for the month so far. They had a record high of 93° a few days ago. BDR also had a record high with the recent over the top warm up. Almanac for DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP, CT June 5, 2025 Daily Data Observed Normal Record Highest Record Lowest Max Temperature 93 75 93 in 2025 60 in 2009 Min Temperature 60 53 68 in 2010 42 in 1998 Climatological Data for DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP, CT - June 2025 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Sum 632 433 - - 19 33 0.48 Average 79.0 54.1 66.6 2.9 - - - Normal 74.6 52.8 63.7 - 28 17 1.21 2025-06-01 64 48 56.0 -6.6 9 0 0.04 2025-06-02 71 44 57.5 -5.4 7 0 T 2025-06-03 80 44 62.0 -1.2 3 0 0.00 2025-06-04 85 51 68.0 4.4 0 3 0.00 2025-06-05 93 60 76.5 12.6 0 12 0.00 2025-06-06 86 67 76.5 12.3 0 12 T 2025-06-07 76 60 68.0 3.5 0 3 0.41 2025-06-08 77 59 68.0 3.2 0 3 0.03 2025-06-09 M M M M M M M 2025-06-10 M M M M M M M 2025-06-11 M M M M M M M 2025-06-12 M M M M M M M 2025-06-13 M M M M M M M 2025-06-14 M M M M M M M 2025-06-15 M M M M M M M 2025-06-16 M M M M M M M 2025-06-17 M M M M M M M 2025-06-18 M M M M M M M 2025-06-19 M M M M M M M 2025-06-20 M M M M M M M 2025-06-21 M M M M M M M 2025-06-22 M M M M M M M 2025-06-23 M M M M M M M 2025-06-24 M M M M M M M 2025-06-25 M M M M M M M 2025-06-26 M M M M M M M 2025-06-27 M M M M M M M 2025-06-28 M M M M M M M 2025-06-29 M M M M M M M 2025-06-30 M M M M M M M RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 0436 PM EDT THU JUN 05 2025 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT IN BRIDGEPORT, CT... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 87 DEGREES WAS SET AT BRIDGEPORT CT TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 86 DEGREES SET IN 1953. RECORDS GO BACK TO THE YEAR 1948 AT THIS CLIMATE STATION.

The Bermuda High keeps dueling with the Canadian High. So this leads to the fronts stalling out near our area. You want one to dominate for extended sunny and dry weather.

Yeah, the early signal that the summer of 2022 would be the warmest in NJ since 2010 was the major upper 90s heat in May. This year the highs were around -10 cooler only reaching the upper 80s. I ageee that the best shot of going over 30 days this summer will be somewhere in NJ like recent summers. But not looking like a repeat of 2022 with 53 days reaching 90°. Someone in the state should reach 30° days this year. The last time the state wasn’t able to reach 30° days was way back in 2014. But we have warmed quite a bit since then. Monthly Data for May 2022 for New Jersey Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 98 TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 98 Newark Area ThreadEx 98 ESTELL MANOR COOP 96 HARRISON COOP 96 SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 96 ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP WBAN 95 INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP 95 CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 95 AEROFLEX-ANDOVER AIRPORT WBAN 95 SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 95 Atlantic City Area ThreadEx 95 EB FORSYTHE NEW JERSEY RAWS 95 Monthly Data for May 2025 for New Jersey Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. OCEAN COUNTY AIRPORT WBAN 89 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 88 HARRISON COOP 88 Newark Area ThreadEx 88 CANOE BROOK COOP 87 TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 87 ESTELL MANOR COOP 87 TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 87 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 86 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 86 CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 86 BELMAR FARMINGDALE ALLAIRE AP WBAN 86 SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 86 PHILADELPHIA/MT. HOLLY WFO COOP 86 SALEM COOP 86 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 86 MILLVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT WBAN 85 ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP WBAN 85 NJ #90 days during the 2020s Data for January 1, 2024 through December 31, 2024 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. HARRISON COOP 41 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 41 CANOE BROOK COOP 37 SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 35 Newark Area ThreadEx 33 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 33 CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 33 TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 31 INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP 31 PHILADELPHIA/MT. HOLLY WFO COOP 30 TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 30 PENNSAUKEN 1N COOP 30 Data for January 1, 2023 through December 31, 2023 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. ESTELL MANOR COOP 34 HARRISON COOP 33 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 31 Newark Area ThreadEx 29 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 29 Data for January 1, 2022 through December 31, 2022 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 53 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 49 Newark Area ThreadEx 49 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 49 CANOE BROOK COOP 47 SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 46 HARRISON COOP 44 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 43 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 43 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 42 ESTELL MANOR COOP 41 INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP 40 Data for January 1, 2021 through December 31, 2021 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 43 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 41 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 41 Newark Area ThreadEx 41 HARRISON COOP 38 CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 37 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 36 SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 36 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 36 SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 33 CANOE BROOK COOP 32 ESTELL MANOR COOP 31 PHILADELPHIA/MT. HOLLY WFO COOP 31 PENNSAUKEN 1N COOP 30 Data for January 1, 2020 through December 31, 2020 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 42 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 40 HARRISON COOP 39 CANOE BROOK COOP 37 CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 37 ESTELL MANOR COOP 36 HAMMONTON 1 NE COOP 32 ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP WBAN 31 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 31 Atlantic City Area ThreadEx 31 Newark Area ThreadEx 31 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 30 FLEMINGTON 5 NNW COOP 30 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 30

Yeah, we are looking really good here in the East.

Yeah, my guess is that the only spots this summer that have a chance of reaching 30 days will be somewhere in NJ. Newark was a little over last summer and a little under back in 2023. Central Park has been so overgrown that they haven’t had 30 days since 2010.

I was pointing this out last month. We typically don’t get 40 to 50 days reaching 90° like in 2010 and 2022 without 90°+ heat in May. The summer could still average warmer than normal. But we will probablyhave plenty of onshore flow and moisture.

Less warm or closer to the warmest 1991-2020 normals is the new cool. This looks like the pattern for the next few weeks. Perhaps the pattern warms up during the last week of June allowing a modest warm departure for the whole month on average. June 9 to 16 EPS forecast June 16 to 23 forecast

The main thing with the few cooler summer intervals since 2010 like we saw in 2023, 2017, and 2014, has been that none of them have been really cool like 2009 was. Going forward we’ll have to see if we dry out later in the month into July allowing the more typical 90° heat. But the lack of 90° heat in May was singnaling that a high end summer for 90° days like 2022 and 2010 when Newark had close to 50 days wasn’t as likely. Since all our warmest summers have been preceded by heat in May.

Rainy patterns have been the only way that we have avoided heat during the summers since 2010. Closer to average summer temperatures have been associated with wet onshore flow patterns. So it’s no surprise that the models have less heat going forward than earlier runs. But this introduces the risk of flooding when the systems or storms stall out. We have been seeing this pattern to our north since the start of May with 10”+. The real risk is that some spot gets 10”+ of rain in a few hours rather than spread out over a month during the summer into fall. This is when the severe flooding occurs like Southern CT and Suffolk County saw last August. June 9 to 16 more onshore flow and showers than originally forecast leading to very comfortable June temperatures. New run Old run

Yeah, I have read that the ECMWF has been working on that. Use AI to bias correct the NWP OP and ENS model runs. But they say that it takes an enormous amount of computing power. I adjust the models manually after recognizing the biases. A stronger Southeast Ridge or Western Atlantic Ridge has been a regular model bias in the East than original forecasts. So systems which initially start out further south and end up more north. This model too weak Southeast Ridge and Pacific Jet forecast error was the main model bias during February 2025. So the heaviest snowfall axis shifted further north over time from the original model snowfall forecasts issued early in the month. On the Pacific side the Northern Stream has been verifying much stronger. This has lead to the long range models being too strong with the -EPO. So the ridge in that region usually ends up weaker than originally forecast. This was the case last December when the models missed the record +EPO vortex later in December. The link below has the original EPS forecast issued in early December missing the stronger Pacific Jet and record late December +EPO.