bluewave

The best guess so far is the big reduction in sulphur dioxide emissions over the last decade from China and shipping lead to less clouds over the Pacific which was masking the CO2 emissions warming. https://e360.yale.edu/digest/asia-air-pollution-sulfates-warming

It could just be that mid-latitude Pacific warming is acting as a higher latitude El Niño. So this is why the warming occurred earlier in 2023 than during past El Niño events. Plus the warming lingered longer than previous El Niños.

https://theconversation.com/typhoon-leaves-flooded-alaska-villages-facing-a-storm-recovery-far-tougher-than-most-americans-will-ever-experience-267423 Remnants of a powerful typhoon swept into Western Alaska’s Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta on Oct. 12, 2025, producing a storm surge that flooded villages as far as 60 miles up the river. The water pushed homes off their foundations and set some afloat with people inside, officials said. More than 50 people had to be rescued in Kipnuk and Kwigillingok, hundreds were displaced in the region, and at least one person died. Typhoon Halong was an unusual storm, likely fueled by the Pacific’s near-record warm surface temperatures this fall. Its timing means recovery will be even more difficult than usual for these hard-hit communities, as Alaska meteorologist Rick Thoman of the University Alaska Fairbanks explains. Disasters in remote Alaska are not like disasters anywhere in the lower 48 states, he explains. While East Coast homeowners recovering from a nor’easter that flooded parts of New Jersey and other states the same weekend can run to Home Depot for supplies or drive to a hotel if their home floods, none of that exists in remote Native villages. account Rick Thoman ‪@alaskawx.bsky.social‬ Follow Track and intensity of Typhoon/ex-typhoon Halong in early October. The storm passed over ocean water significantly warmer than normal for virtually its entire track, from southeast of Japan to landfall on the northeast Bering Sea coast. #akwx #weather #Climate #Alaska @climatologist49.bsky.social ALT October 22, 2025 at 3:14 PM Everybody can reply

Just a little below average for this time of year since the Northern Hemisphere is so warm.

This gradient between the record SST warmth east of Japan and the Arctic cold over NE Asia is driving this very fast North Pacific Jet. So it has been very challenging to sustain the -EPO and -WPO intervals for long. Prior to 2019, we would get extended -EPO and -WPO intervals instead of these rapid shifts between positive and negative states. https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/epo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt

This just highlights the issue with the models beyond 120 hrs being really poor in general with storms along the East Coast. But we see some general trends since the weekend. Everything is further east than the other day with more high pressure over the Northeast. While there could certainly be coastal storm of some type during this period, how far west it comes is still in question. So we just have to be patient and see what the models show once we are under the 120hr range when details become more obvious. New run more high pressure to the north Old run less high pressure to the north

I realize that. But some of the very wet posts showing up on social media were based on the wet OP Euro runs and not the ensembles. I posted the OP since it’s what has been getting the most attention. There are a few issues with the ensembles also. First, they can smooth out important features which lead to lesser amounts like stronger high pressure to the north. On paper the late month period looks like events in the past which have produced decent rainfall events here. But as we have seen in recent times, as we approached the event time the rainfall amounts became lesser. The Euro originally forecast the coastal event around the 13th to be further west with a more consolidated low pressure. There were several runs which had the heavier rains further west than they wound up. So it was more of a coastal event with a sharp rainfall cutoff and two weaker lows. So now I don’t have any confidence yet in the wetter model runs for the last week of October. Since there may be more high pressure and 500 mb ridging pressing down from the north than the smoothed ensembles are showing. Would like to see wetter solutions hold to 120hrs and under to be more believable. The old saying is that the long range OP runs are just another ensemble member. I am hoping the end of the month period is close to some of the EPS forecasts. But will not have confidence in the details and if a sharp cutoff until under 120 hrs. We will need one of the wetter long range forecasts to verify in order to get the ball rolling on a reversal of the drought which began back in September 2024. Since most outcomes have been drier than the original day 6-10 forecasts over the last year.

One of the main offenders causing that is excess nitrogen runoff into our waterways leading to the smelly algal blooms. Had that issue when I lived on the GSB. But natural marsh smells in a more pristine environment come with living near the shore. Most of the time it’s just in the background. More overpowering and persistent smells are usually a sign of pollution.

But the NAO has been negative every October since 2019. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

Most of those really bad smells are a function of the sewage treatment plants draining into the bays in the SW Nassau area. The sewage treatment plant in East Rockaway and Long Beach next to the skating rink are a much more potent smell. Plus those plants are old and leak untreated sewage into the area from time to time. The hydrogen sulfide rotten egg smell from marshes doing their job is something that you get used to. Much of the time it’s in the background and not overpowering. But from time to time in the early morning during inversions it gets stronger. Though the smell usually goes away once the sun comes up and breaks the inversion. The other issue near the South Shore marshes has been locating landfills there. The one in Oceanside used to be across from the old TSS store which is now behind a shopping center. They finally closed that one years ago. Everyone used to have to roll up the car windows when driving by there. So marshes have mainly gotten a bad reputation by some not from their own natural processes but from all the pollution dumped into the areas. Driving through the marsh habitats on the parkways was one of may favorite drives when back on the South Shore.

Could be a feedback response involved with the overpowering WPAC warm pool with this -PDO and Atlantic warm pool enhancing the ridge into a stronger standing wave.

Much stronger 500 mb heights over Canada with the 2020s -PDO vs during the earlier era. Also notice the more impressive North Pacific ridge. Plus the volatility next 10 days with the big EPO shift.

This is a very similar October 500 mb pattern to 2021,2022,2023, and 2024. Very strong blocking over Canada pressing down into the Great Lakes and Northeast. The next 10 days has more of the same with a very strong blocking again near Hudson Bay.

The wetlands in our area are key ecosystems. While we lost large swaths to development from Jamaica Bay out to Eastern LI, at least what we have now has been designated as preserves. Imagine seeing the whole area from NYC out to Long Island hundreds of years ago. NY Harbor back to the NJ Meadowlands was one of the greatest natural estuaries in all of North America. Jamaica Bay wildlife refuge is still one of the most important stopovers for migrating shorebirds in the East. Before the 5 towns was developed it was called the Woodmere Woods. That was an extensive forested area which people fought to save before it got developed in the mid 1900s. Much of Central Nassau was called the Hempstead Plains natural grasslands. Only a small portion of the original habitat survives near Nassau Community College. The back bays from Nassau to across the GSB still have a large mash habitat. The further east you go on Long Island the closer you get to something that is close to the original state. Especially from the Pine Barrens out to the Twin Forks.

The wetlands are some of the most important ecosystems on the entire planet.

JFK averaged 41.79” from 1970 to 2002. Same old story of the thunderstorms weakening before reaching the South Shore. Didn’t notice much difference in the insects growing up back in Long Beach away from the marshes between the wetter and drier summers. But the marsh areas always had a very high number of mosquitos.

JFK averages less than NYC. As the best frontal convergence is usually to the west. The heaviest amounts from 2003 to 2024 were at NYC and New Brunswick. The greatest difference between JFK and NYC is during the warm season with the sea breeze fronts to the west of JFK. 2003 to 2024 annual average rainfall NYC….52.71” NBW….51.96” EWR….48.86” LGA…..48.04” HPN….46.81” ISP…….46.70” JFK……45.09” May to October NYC…28.79” JFK….23.70” November to April NYC…..23.98” JFK……21.38”

The amount of insects isn’t going to significantly change if we get around 50” year like we have since the 1970s. Mold issues in recent years like the college dorms after the summer were more a function of the very high dew points. There is a large vacant parcel of land by me that they cut every few months. The weeds grew just as fast to a significant height even with one of the driest summers on record here. So weeds are a very hearty and adaptable species of plants. Some people have pollen allergies that can drop after the heavy rains wash some of the extra pollen out of the air. Plus I didn’t see any reduction in pollen on the local cars during tree pollen season even though it was still pretty dry. You can see a steady decadal average around 50.00” in NYC since the 1970s. It’s the 1960s which really stood out for drought. It was rated as a 500 year drought from a long tree rings study from the Catskills down to closer to NYC. Over the last year smaller watershed systems such as up here in CT and NJ saw a drop in their reservoir levels. Some close to the Jersey Shore were near record low levels since they were established. But the Catskills haven’t been as dry as other areas closer to NYC. So NYC hasn’t had any Reservior issues. But some local farmers have been having crop issues with how dry it has been. NYC average decadal rainfall since the 1960s through 2024 1960s…39.74” 1970s….52.32” 1980s…49.46” 1990s….47.19” 2000s…52.14” 2010s….50.76 2020s….51.41”…through 2024

50.84” of rain has been our long term average since 1971 at a place like NYC so it isn’t too much rain. But short term hourly and daily heavy rainfall extremes have been increasing over this period especially since 2003. This has lead to flooding issues. It’s when we get closer to 60”or higher of rain on the year that issues with too much annual rainfall develop. From 1871 to 1970 NYC averaged 42.89” which worked out OK since the climate was so much cooler. Except for the 1960s which had the record low rainfall in the 30s and even 20s with the 500 year drought.

The eastern coordinate needs to be higher so your subtract the 60 from 360 to go with 100W to 300E.

50” inches of rain a year works out to just a little over 4.00” a month which isn’t that wet in a climate as warm as ours has become. My area has been running below 3.00” monthly averaged out over the last year which is too low for a climate this warm. All the vegetation was dried out this summer with the record heat. Plus some areas up here had water restrictions due to the reservoirs running lower than average. Remember, warmer climates require more rain.

I selected custom for the map view and entered the coordinates.

We would get occasional months where some part of the area would get with 10” since 2003. The last month for us was August 2024 and at MPO May 2025. Many spots have been well below 40” over the last 12 months. My area has only had around 32” in the last 12 months which is too dry in this much warmer climate. In the old days we could get away with some drier years since a cooler climate didn’t dry out so quickly during the warm season. Long range precipitation forecasting is very uncertain. So we can’t say based off one year that the wet pattern since 2003 has shifted. But the current dry pattern since September 2024 has been defined by storms underperforming model forecasts like we are seeing today. We will know that this drought is over when and if the storms start beating model expectations. It will probably lead to someone getting near or over 10” on the month and repeated very wet months. Since in the warmer climate we need something closer to 50” due to the much warmer summers drying things out very quickly.

I think the drought is more about what is happening in Canada than the Atlantic Ocean. We have been seeing these record ridges setting up across Canada leading to dry conditions working down to the south under the ridge. The Atlantic is currently near record warm levels just behind 2023 and 2024.

Another case of the record heat missing to our north. So Massena was able to tie their October record of 4 days reaching 80° or higher. Their average max this month is +7.1° with the min at 0.0°. RECORD REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 141 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2025 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT MASSENA NY... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 82 DEGREES WAS SET AT MASSENA NY ON 10/19/25. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 81 DEGREES SET IN 2007. WEATHER RECORDS FOR MASSENA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (KMSS) IN NY DATE BACK TO 1949. && ALL CLIMATE DATA ARE CONSIDERED PRELIMINARY UNTIL REVIEWED BY THE NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION (NCEI). Time Series Summary for MASSENA INTL AP, NY - Month of Oct Number of 80° days Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2025 4 12 - 2023 4 0 3 2005 3 0