bluewave

I selected custom for the map view and entered the coordinates.

We would get occasional months where some part of the area would get with 10” since 2003. The last month for us was August 2024 and at MPO May 2025. Many spots have been well below 40” over the last 12 months. My area has only had around 32” in the last 12 months which is too dry in this much warmer climate. In the old days we could get away with some drier years since a cooler climate didn’t dry out so quickly during the warm season. Long range precipitation forecasting is very uncertain. So we can’t say based off one year that the wet pattern since 2003 has shifted. But the current dry pattern since September 2024 has been defined by storms underperforming model forecasts like we are seeing today. We will know that this drought is over when and if the storms start beating model expectations. It will probably lead to someone getting near or over 10” on the month and repeated very wet months. Since in the warmer climate we need something closer to 50” due to the much warmer summers drying things out very quickly.

I think the drought is more about what is happening in Canada than the Atlantic Ocean. We have been seeing these record ridges setting up across Canada leading to dry conditions working down to the south under the ridge. The Atlantic is currently near record warm levels just behind 2023 and 2024.

Another case of the record heat missing to our north. So Massena was able to tie their October record of 4 days reaching 80° or higher. Their average max this month is +7.1° with the min at 0.0°. RECORD REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 141 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2025 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT MASSENA NY... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 82 DEGREES WAS SET AT MASSENA NY ON 10/19/25. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 81 DEGREES SET IN 2007. WEATHER RECORDS FOR MASSENA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (KMSS) IN NY DATE BACK TO 1949. && ALL CLIMATE DATA ARE CONSIDERED PRELIMINARY UNTIL REVIEWED BY THE NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION (NCEI). Time Series Summary for MASSENA INTL AP, NY - Month of Oct Number of 80° days Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2025 4 12 - 2023 4 0 3 2005 3 0

Yeah, we did get the stronger -WPO in February. But the Pacific Jet undercut it leading to the stronger Southeast ridge and Great Lakes storm track. Our last solid winter month from ACY to BOS was January 2022 which featured a -2.1 WPO and a +TNH. The +TNH last January had interference from the Pacific Jet. So the heights in the WPO region were much lower due to the Pacific Jet sending a stream of disturbances into the region lowering heights. So the WPO finished January +0.2. Getting a -WPO and +TNH during the same month been a challenge with the faster Pacific Jet. Would like to see if we could at least pull off that feat at least one month in the coming years potentially allowing more of benchmark track over that month like we saw briefly for January 2022. That month the Pacific Jet was able to back off with the great snows from ACY to ISP to BOS.

That was a once in 700 year track. So most times systems develop to our south exit ENE. If the system is too far OTS, then we won’t even get much moisture. Ideally, you want it far enough west of Bermuda so when it recurves the system in the Great Lakes taps some tropical moisture. Our main issue since September 2024 has been a lack of tropical moisture. Prior to this we had many tropical systems going into the Gulf or Southeast and weakening they tracked north. This is how we got so many deluges in recent years. But now we get these weaker Northern Stream disturbances which can’t pick up much moisture. Canada has been in drought also. So this drought which began in September 2024 has continued. It probably won’t end until someone in the area gets a 10.00” precipitation month followed by numerous above average precipitation months. This is how our past dry patterns have ended Even last winter we got normal precipitation in December and February with a dry January. So with the exception of last May near MPO, all our months have been either just average or below average precipitation which perpetuated the drought.

Wonder if we can actually tap some tropical moisture later in the month? We haven’t been able to do this in a while. Probably just have wait and see what comes of the potential Western Caribbean development.

This is clearly a top down warming process. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/ocean_briefing_gif/global_ocean_monitoring_current.pdf

Even warmer than the previous record at this time back in 2022.

It’s a new pattern which just developed in the last decade. Record ridging and sunshine over the WPAC leading to these record SSTs. So once Siberia begins getting cold in the fall a strong temperature gradient develops driving the much faster Pacific Jet. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/ocean_briefing_gif/global_ocean_monitoring_current.pdf

It’s the much stronger North Pacific Jet stream since 2018-2019 leading to the dominant Great Lakes cutter, I-78 to I-84 hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks. So the DC to Philly corridor has had their lowest 7 year combined snowfall on record. Only a brief break in this pattern during 20-21 and January 22. January 22 was the last winter month with well above average snow and cold for our area. The 4th chart below is the storm tracks for last winter which lead to the much below average snowfall again. On the 11 days that .25” of precipitation fell in NYC we had a strong Southeast ridge and an average temperature of 41.0”. Fastest 7 year North Pacific Jet stream on record Warm storm tracks from last winter with a strong Southeast ridge on the 11 days that .25 of precipitation fell

March during the 2020s has been 3.8° warmer than the 2010s at a spot like NYC. So it has been too warm for much snow in March this decade. It’s more like an early spring month now than a late winter one we had during the 2010s. March Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 46.5 46.5 2025 46.9 46.9 2024 48.1 48.1 2023 44.6 44.6 2022 45.3 45.3 2021 45.8 45.8 2020 48.0 48.0 March Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 42.7 42.7 2019 41.7 41.7 2018 40.1 40.1 2017 39.2 39.2 2016 48.9 48.9 2015 38.1 38.1 2014 37.7 37.7 2013 40.1 40.1 2012 50.9 50.9 2011 42.3 42.3 2010 48.2 48.2 March Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.1 0.1 2025 0.0 0.0 2024 T T 2023 0.1 0.1 2022 0.4 0.4 2021 T T 2020 T T March Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 6.0 6.0 2019 10.4 10.4 2018 11.6 11.6 2017 9.7 9.7 2016 0.9 0.9 2015 18.6 18.6 2014 0.1 0.1 2013 7.3 7.3 2012 0.0 0.0 2011 1.0 1.0 2010 T T

October is one of our fastest warming months for all the stations in our climate division since 1981. Our area has been warming at 1.1° per decade in October along with January. May and November are the slowest warming months at 0.4° and 0.3° per decade.

Our climate is warming very quickly across all the seasons. But it’s an uneven process so that some months are warming faster than others. Most people that don’t follow the weather and climate as closely as we do tend to normalize the warmer climate and more extreme weather in only 2-7 years.

This was the strongest North Pacific Jet on record for a 7 year period from 2019 to 2025. You can see how much stronger it was than earlier defined intervals. Very extensive area from Asia to North America from 30N to 75N.

There are two ways for winter temperatures to have an effect on snowfall amounts for any given location. The first is through the average winter temperatures. The second way is the temperatures on the days that the precipitation falls. Even during winters with favorable colder storm tracks for NYC, they don’t reach 50” on the season if the overall winter average is much above 32.0°. So tracks which used to produce heavier snows in a colder climate now produce less as the temperatures become more marginal. The reason you reached 50” in the seasons that NYC didn’t is a function of the colder temperatures where you live. Plus the temperatures aloft are also colder in interior Northern NJ than they are closer to NYC. Many times the coastal fronts stall out just to the north and west of NYC leading to a slower mix or changeover to rain for those areas.

Yeah, mid 70s away from the sea breeze in NJ. But the flow at JFK is forecast to be SSE. So we’ll see if JFK can beat guidance by a few degrees and sneak in a 70°.

This is a function of the tree growth since the 1990s. So the high temperatures have been artificially suppressed by a large margin when the trees are leafed out. Same reason for the summer decline in highs and 90 days over this period. Notice how NYC is the only station to show a slight decline in high temperatures from 30 years before and after the new ASOS was put under the trees in 1995. NYC used to measure temperatures out in the open like all other stations do before the station change in 1995. Once NYC drops the leaves by later in the fall the temperature trends are closer to the other stations. But even then NYC still has a slight cool bias during the winter due to the dense tree growth and lower sun angle enhancing the shade.

NYC was too warm both winters to reach 50” of snow while your area was colder. Nearly all the seasons that NYC had 50” or greater of snow were closer to 32.0° like your area was. In 17-18 when your area had 53.0” the DJF average at SMQ was 31.9°. NYC only finished with 40.9° and the DJF average temperature was 36.3°. Same went for 20-21 when your area had 51.0” and the SMQ average temperature was 32.5”. NYC had 38.6” in 20-21 with an average temperature of 36.1”. Just going a small distance inland from the coast can have a large difference in snowfall when the temperatures are marginal.

Yeah, weaker amplitude MJO through 4-6 than last year which was what I was expecting. The strong amplitude October MJO 4-6 years like 2024, 2020, and 2017 preceded the stronger +PNAs from December into January. The weaker years like 2022, 2021, and 2016 had a lower PNA. So this fits with my early thinking that this winter will be warmer than last year. But my guess is that there could still be some +PNA intervals but not to the extent of last winter. Snowfall is a bit more of a wild card. Since the snows were so low winter, it wouldn’t take much for an equal or better snowfall outcome. But that won’t be known until I see the December snowfall indicator. I am hoping that we can change up the dominant cutter,hugger,and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks at least for a few weeks to maybe one month. That will probably be MJO dependent and not known until we get close to the time it starts showing up the medium range models.

Yeah, JFK and several spots in NJ and Eastern PA made it to 70° on the offshore flow. Looks like areas in NJ will be favored for more 70s this weekend. But probably too much onshore flow at places like JFK. Data for October 15, 2025 through October 15, 2025 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. DE WILMINGTON AIRPORT WBAN 73 DE GEORGETOWN-DELAWARE COASTAL AIRPORT WBAN 72 PA PHILADELPHIA INTL AP WBAN 72 NJ ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP WBAN 72 NJ MILLVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT WBAN 71 NJ SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 70 NJ SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 70 Data for October 15, 2025 through October 15, 2025 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 72 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 70 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 70

With the highs beating guidance yesterday JFK moved into the top 5 again for 70° days. CLIMATE REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 216 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2025 ................................... ...THE KENNEDY NY CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER 15 2025... CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1948 TO 2025 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL ................................................................... TEMPERATURE (F) YESTERDAY MAXIMUM 70 153 PM 82 1975 65 5 60 MINIMUM 53 1159 PM 37 1999 50 3 46 AVERAGE 62 58 4 53 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec 70° days Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2024 167 0 2 2015 160 0 3 2021 158 0 - 2010 158 0 4 1985 157 0 5 2025 155 77 - 2007 155 0

The lake effect zones have been the place to be with the shift in the storm track west of the Apps in recent years. Plus the warmer lake temperatures are helping boost your snowfall totals. But areas to the east of the storm tracks have seen a steep decline in snowfall. The Apps runner snowstorm which was prolific from the 60s to 90s has been missing. State College has seen a large snowfall decline since the 60s while your near the lakes area has seen a general increase.

I think that we are both saying the same thing in our own way. The larger pattern since 2018-2019 has been a function of how dominant the Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet has been. But the smaller features in that larger pattern can vary according to location. Unfortunately, the best snowfall axis lined up from ACY to Boston in 21-22. But I would still take another winter month like January 22 even if the best axis of snowfall isn’t right in my area. One benefit of living at your latitude is that you can still get over 40” even if you are 20” below your longer term average.

Most areas in the +1 to +3 range for the first two weeks of October. FWN….+2.1° TTN……+1.2° SMQ…..+2.1° NBW….+3.1° EWR…..+2.6° NYC…..+1.7° JFK……+1.6° LGA……+0.9 HPN…..+3.4° ISP…….+3.2° BDR…..-0.2° HVN…..+3.2° DXR……+3.1° POU…..+1.6°