bluewave

Even with the strongest summer polar vortex pattern since at least 2006, NSIDC extent still finished 8th lowest. Our most favorable years now for sea ice retention are still significantly lower than the most hostile years pre 2005.

Congrats!

For those that didn't get a chance to read the story. http://mashable.com/2017/03/10/hurricane-forecasts-suffer-gfs-model-upgrade/

Still looks like the paper is behind a paywall. But phys.org posted some of the key findings. https://phys.org/news/2017-04-eastern-arctic-ocean-atlantification.html (Phys.org)—An international team of researchers has found that the eastern part of the Arctic Ocean is undergoing what they describe as "Atlantification"—in which the ocean is becoming more like the Atlantic Ocean. In their paper published in the journal Science, the group describes how they tracked ocean temperatures over a 15-year period and the changes they found. The Arctic Ocean has traditionally been different from the Atlantic or Pacific in a fundamental way—the water gets warmer as you go deeper (due to inflows from the Atlantic) rather than the other way around, as happens with the other two. But now, the researchers with this new effort have found that may be changing. They have been using tethered moorings to record ocean temperatures at different depths for approximately 15 years and have found that changes have taken place—sea ice is melting from below, not just from above due to warmer air temperatures. In studying the data from the moorings, the researchers found that warm water from the Atlantic, which has traditionally been separated from melting ice because of the halocline layer—a barrier that exists between deep salty water and fresher water closer to the surface—has been penetrating the barrier, allowing ice to melt from below. It has also led to the water becoming less stratified, like the Atlantic. They describe the changes as a "massive shift" in the ocean that has occurred over an extremely short time frame. These new findings may explain why the extent of ice coverage has been shrinking so dramatically—at a rate of 13 percent per decade. The result, the researchers report, is a feedback loop—as more ice melts due to warmer air, more vertical mixing occurs, allowing warmer water to move upwards, which causes melting from below. They also acknowledge that it is not yet clear what impact the change might have, but suggest it is likely to be substantial—from the biogeochemical to geophysical levels, basic components of the ocean will likely be altered, causing changes such as phytoplankton blooms in places where they have never been seen before. They also note that there is another factor to consider—the massive amounts of fresh water pouring into the ocean from rivers in Siberia as permafrost thaws.

Gives new meaning to heavy wet snow. 0810 AM HEAVY SNOW 2 SE MONTANA CITY 46.52N 111.90W 09/16/2017 M15.0 INCH JEFFERSON MT TRAINED SPOTTER POWER IS OUT. LOST PART OF CHERRY TREE DO TO THE WEIGHT OF THE SNOW. 2.21 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0693.1 Extreme warming in the Kara Sea and Barents Sea during the winter period 2000 to 2016 Abstract The regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM) is used with a high resolution of 15 km for the entire Arctic for all winters 2002/2003-2014/2015. The simulations show a high spatial and temporal variability of the recent 2-m air temperature increase in the Arctic. The maximum warming occurs north of Novaya Zemlya in the Kara Sea and Barents Sea between March 2003-2012 and is responsible for up to 20°C increase. Land-based observations confirm the increase but do not cover the maximum regions that are located over the ocean and sea-ice. Also the 30 km version of the Arctic System Reanalysis (ASR) is used to verify the CCLM for the overlapping time period 2002/2003-2011/2012. The differences between CCLM and ASR 2-m air temperatures vary slightly within 1°C for the ocean and sea-ice area. Thus, ASR captures the extreme warming as well. The monthly 2-m air temperatures of observations and ERA-Interim reanalyses show a large variability for the winters 1979-2016. Nevertheless, the air temperature rise since the beginning of the 21st century is up to eight times higher than in the decades before. The sea-ice decrease is identified as the likely reason for the warming. The vertical temperature profiles show that the warming has a maximum near the surface, but a 0.5°Cyr−1increase is found up to 2 km. CCLM, ASR and also the coarser resolved ERA-Interim Reanalysis show that February and March are the months with the highest 2-m air temperature increases, averaged over the ocean and sea-ice area north of 70°N; for CCLM the warming amounts to an average of almost 5°C for 2002/2003-2011/2012.

I am beginning to think that the key number for Arctic amplification was dropping below 6 million sq km. Crossing the technically ice free mark below 1 million sq km sometime in the future may not even be that significant an event.

It would probably take an extraordinary circumstance to ever see a September minimum extent above 6 million sq km after the damage that was done to the ice during the 2007-2012 era.

Tough to beat the 2012 extent record with such a strong summer polar vortex pattern since then. But 2007 will probably go down in history as the year that the Arctic permanently shifted to this warmer state with reduced sea ice. Even recent numerous more favorable summers haven't allowed the sea ice recover to pre 2007 levels. Our best year now is still lower than anything that came before 2005-2007.

Coming up on the 7th anniversary. Just turn down those speakers.

It will be great to get the rainfall and wind measurements which have been lacking for the Bronx.

New rooftop mesonet site for the Bronx. It's 189 feet up so the temps will be different than the surface. http://www.nysmesonet.org/mesonow#?stid=BRON

I got a chance to watch the new jetty building operation the other day when I was down in Long Beach. Pretty impressive job at beaches like Neptune where all the boulders are piled up on the beach by a stream of trucks. The beaches especially on the east sides of the new jetties have really gotten longer. It's becoming more of a walk from the boardwalk to the ocean than it used to be as the longshore current piles up the sand against the new jetties.

Typical post 2012 summer with stronger polar vortex conditions preventing a challenge to the 2012 record minimum extent. This summer was right down the middle between 2013-2014 and 2015-2016.

Update from NSIDC: https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ Ice retreat from August 1 to August 21 averaged 73,000 square kilometers (28,000 square miles) per day. This was faster than the 1981 to 2010 average rates of ice loss of 57,300 square kilometers (22,000 square miles) per day, but slower than in 2012, which exhibited the fastest rate of ice loss compared to any other August in the passive microwave satellite data record. Normally the rate of ice retreat slows in August as the sun starts to dip lower in the sky. The rate of ice loss was more rapid at the beginning of August, slowing down considerably starting on August 17. Air temperatures the first two weeks of August were 1 to 3 degrees Celsius (2 to 5 degrees Fahrenheit) cooler than the 1981 to 2010 average throughout the Arctic Ocean and over Greenland and the North Atlantic. The lowest air temperatures relative to the long-term average were found in coastal regions of the Kara and Barents Seas, continuing the pattern seen throughout much of this summer. Cooler than average conditions within the Central Arctic were a result of persistent cold-core cyclones. These cyclones have not been as large or as strong as the Great Arctic Cyclones of 2012 and 2016, despite the central pressure of one of these systems dropping down to 974 hPa on August 10. In addition, these cyclones are located closer towards the pole within the consolidated ice pack, where they are less likely to cause significant ice loss, as did the 2012 Great Arctic Cyclone in the Chukchi Sea. While air temperatures start to drop in August, ice melt continues through the month as heat gained in the ocean mixed layer during summer continues to melt the ice from below and from the sides. Sea surface temperatures have been up to 5 degrees Celsius (9 degrees Fahrenheit) above average near the coastal regions, but generally near average or slightly below average along the ice edge in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas

No problem. We may be able to further decline the anomaly if we can avoid the historic warmth that we saw last Oct-Dec. That may set the volume up to come into next summer a little better than we saw this year. The state of the sea ice next summer will then come down whether the less hostile 2013-2017 stronger polar vortex pattern can prevail another year. Or the 2007-2012 dipole pattern makes a return. Be interesting to see how many more years the 2012 can hold on. The reversal of the summer pattern in 2013 turned out to be a surprise that people didn't think was possible during the fall of 2012. But some studies came out in early 2013 that mentioned this possibility. Long term sea ice decline with increases or decreases in the short term rate.

One of the greatest early August anomaly decreases on the PIOMAS with the cool and stormy pattern in the Arctic. Also among the strongest polar vortex patterns for the first half of August.

Much cooler summer regime since 2013 with low pressure dominating instead of high pressure. Likely quite a bit of snow has fallen from this Arctic cyclone... Wish the polar bears could report obs [Map: esrl.noaa.gov/psd/people/amy…]pic.twitter.com/nrL6U5LplZ

Yeah, the record August 2012 storm seemed to be the exception to the rule. http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2012/08/a-summer-storm-in-the-arctic/ Low pressure systems over the Arctic Ocean tend to cause the ice to diverge or spread out and cover a larger area. These storms often bring cool conditions and even snowfall. In contrast, high pressure systems over the Arctic cause the sea ice to converge. Summers dominated by low pressure systems over the central Arctic Ocean tend to end up with greater ice extent than summers dominated by high pressure systems. However, the effects of an individual strong storm, like that observed in early August, can be complex. While much of the region influenced by the August cyclone experienced a sudden drop in temperature, areas influenced by winds from the south experienced a rise in temperature. Coincident with the storm, a large area of low concentration ice in the East Siberian Sea (concentrations typically below 50%) rapidly melted out. On three consecutive days (August 7, 8, and 9), sea ice extent dropped by nearly 200,000 square kilometers (77,220 square miles). This could be due to mechanical break up of the ice and increased melting by strong winds and wave action during the storm. However, it may be simply a coincidence of timing, given that the low concentration ice in the region was already poised to rapidly melt out.

There may also be a higher degree of uncertainty in the PIOMAS data compared to other years. But we saw how the the PIOMAS and NSIDC extent widely diverged in 2013 compared to the 2007 season. Lower PIOMAS in 2013 vs 2007,but the cool 2013 summer resulted in a much higher higher September extent than 2007. http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2017/03/ It was a very warm autumn and winter. Air temperatures at the 925 hPa level (about 2,500 feet above sea level) over the five months spanning October 2016 through February 2017 were more than 2.5 degrees Celsius (4.5 degrees Fahrenheit) above average over the entire Arctic Ocean, and greater than 5 degrees Celsius (9 degrees Fahrenheit) above average over large parts of the northern Chukchi and Barents Seas. These overall warm conditions were punctuated by a series of extreme heat waves over the Arctic Ocean. Data from the European Space Agency’s CryoSat-2 satellite indicate that this winter’s ice cover may be only slightly thinner than that observed at this time of year for the past four years. However, an ice-ocean model at the University of Washington (PIOMAS) that incorporates observed weather conditions suggests the volume of ice in the Arctic is unusually low.

So far it looks like the Arctic storm has slightly slowed the decline rate as the pack appears to be spreading out a bit. The storm has brought an early freeze for the post 2005 Arctic. Right now the extent is tracking between 2007 and 2016 as 2012 pulls further out of reach.

There has traditionally been a relationship between Arctic sea ice and the AMO as we have seen with the decline in the 20's and 30's. More specifically, the region south of Greenland seems to have the largest influence on September minimum extent. When those SST's were at their warmest from 2005 -2012, there were three new records set in 2005, 2007, and 2012. The reversal to cooler SST's in this region since 2013 has been accompanied by no new September extent records. You can see the 2005-2012 rate of decline was in a class by itself with nothing else coming close. While that area south of Greenland has cooled dramatically in recent years, the AMO has still remained positive.

Recent cooler temps and stronger polar vortex let 2017 fall a little behind 2007 over the last few days.

Early dip near freezing with the strong polar vortex similar to 2014 and 2013.

It could also be related to why the Siberian October snow signal hasn't worked in recent winters with the stronger PV and more +AO/+NAO.