bluewave

Large 166k daily drop in NSIDC extent. We are entering the big decline week when 2012 pulled ahead of all other years. This was during the period of the Great Arctic Cyclone. NSIDC extent  Date....2012......2019....2019 difference 8-4......5.990.... .5.762.....+228k lead 8-5......5.768......5.596.....+172k lead 8-6......5.632 8-7......5.467 8-8......5.256 8-9......5.088 8-10....5.118 8-11....5.021 No let up in sight for the continuing record dipole pattern.

We are entering the big decline week when 2012 pulled ahead of all other years. This was during the period of the Great Arctic Cyclone. NSIDC extent Date....2012......2019....2019 difference 8-4......5.990.... 5.762.....+228k lead 8-5......5.768 8-6......5.632 8-7......5.467 8-8......5.256 8-9......5.088 8-10....5.118 8-11....5.021

NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis monthly means. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/timeseries/

May through July set new Arctic records for warmth, surface pressure, and 500 mb heights.

Large -299k drop in NSIDC extent over the last 2 days. This puts 2019 +259 k ahead of 2012 as of August 2nd. 2019 needs to maintain an average daily decline rate of 97k over the next 9 days to hold even with 2012 by the 11th. NSIDC extent 8-2-19.....5.893 8-2-12.....6.152 8-11-12....5.021

Zack Labe is reporting that July set the new lowest NSIDC average extent for the month. The only months not to set a new record low since 2016 so far have been ASO. 9 new monthly records in 3 years shows how much the Arctic has warmed. https://mobile.twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1156938182832693249 New Record* -- 2019 averaged the lowest #Arctic sea extent in the satellite-era for the month of July. It was 1,880,000 km² below the 1981-2010 average. Data from @NSIDC https://mobile.twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1157122835409596416 Updated record low #Arctic sea ice extent months - @NSIDC data (satellite-era from 1978/1979) -------------- 2018 : January 2018 : February 2017 : March 2019 : April 2016 : May 2016 : June 2019 : July 2012 : August 2012 : September 2012 : October 2016 : November 2016 : December

At least for the time being, the harshest melting conditions are focused over Greenland. NSIDC had a very small drop yesterday of 44k down to 6.192. It maintains a narrow lead over 2012 of 176k which was at 6.368. August 1-11, 2012 experienced the record breaking decline down to 5.021. This year would require an average daily decline rate of 106k to keep pace by August 11th.

July was another top 10 warmest around the area. 7...2019....EWR...7.....NYC..10...LGA...3....JFK....4....BDR...3.....ISP...2

NSIDC extent is only 163k above 2012 as of 7-30. 7-30-19...6.237 7-30-12....6400 2019 needs to increase the decline rate next 10 days in order not to fall below 2012 on August 9th. The average daily decline rate last 10 days was 81k. This year would need an average 115k daily to keep up with 2012 over the next 10 days. 8-9-12.....5.088 9-16-12...3.340....lowest daily September minimum on record The area is tracking a bit behind 2012 as of 7-30.

7-27-19 has a narrow lead of 214k over 7-27-12 for NSIDC extent. 2019 needs to maintain an average daily drop rate of 106k next 13 days in order not to fall behind 2012. This first 9 days of August was when 2012 experienced the record breaking decline. There was a 3 day interval with over 500k of losses during the deep Arctic storm. So it may be tough to catch up with 2012 later in the season if 2019 falls much behind next few weeks. We’ll see how it goes. 7-27-19...6.463 7-27-12...6.677 8-9-12.....5.088 9-16-12...3.340....lowest daily September minimum on record

It may also struggle under extreme blocking and dipole regimes like we are seeing this year. Its biggest miss or underestimation of melt from a June forecast was in 2015. July 2015 experienced the strongest blocking and dipole pattern during the 2013 to 2018 era. June 2015 CPOM forecast September average extent......5.10....Verification.......4.63 This was the most impressive piece of information from the statistical model that CPOM uses for their forecasts. The simulated melt pond fraction in June 2019 has been higher then in any June before.

12z Euro has record breaking 500mb heights and surface pressures over the CAB for this time of year.

Numerous 3.00+ amounts with Syosset near the top at 3.94. Syosset 3.94 856 AM 7/23 Co-Op Observer

Here’s a quote from Wipneus on the July 15th PIOMAS update: PIOMAS has updated the gridded thickness data to the 15th of this month. Volume calculated from this was 8.77 [1000km3]. That is the lowest for the day, with quite a margin.

The Arctic experienced a record May and June combination of warmth and high pressure. So we have been seeing steep declines this week even with more favorable conditions than the last few months.

Another big daily drop of 187K puts 2019 into 1st place on 7-19 for NSIDC extent. The early portion of August is when 2012 ran away with the lead during the record Arctic storm. ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/seaice_analysis/Sea_Ice_Index_Daily_Extent_G02135_v3.0.xlsx 7-18-19....7.267 7-18-11....7.299 7-18-12....7.420 A few papers on the record breaking 2012 season: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/grl.5034 On the 2012 record low Arctic sea ice cover: Combined impact of preconditioning and an August storm https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/grl.50190 The impact of an intense summer cyclone on 2012 Arctic sea ice retreat

Continuing to see steep losses even with more a reverse dipole relative to the last few months. That tells you something about the current condition of the ice pack. NSIDC had a -164 K daily extent drop on July 17th. So very close to 2011 and 2012 on this date. Area losses continue to keep pace with 2012. ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/seaice_analysis/Sea_Ice_Index_Daily_Extent_G02135_v3.0.xlsx 7-17-19.....7.454 7-17-12.....7.481 7-17-11.....7.444 Last 5 days

Updated for the 3.80 max in Canoe Brook, NJ. CANOE BROOK 3.80 800 AM 7/18 HADS

127K daily drop on NSIDC extent. Continuing to run very close to 2011 and 2012 as of July 15th. The area is around 2012 on this date. 7-15-19....7.676 7-15-12....7.705 7-15-11....7.609

https://mobile.twitter.com/mikarantane/status/1150489505419452417 20.5°C (69°F) only 800 km from the North Pole is something.

No problem. They keep a daily file on their site with the exact numbers. 2019 is still holding an area lead over the other years.

It’s right on the NSIDC site. ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/seaice_analysis/Sea_Ice_Index_Daily_Extent_G02135_v3.0.xlsx We fell behind 2011 on the 13th. 7-13-11...7.765....#1 7-13-19...7.856....#2 7-13-12...7.917....#3

2019 maintains a narrow lead over 2012 and 2011 as of July 12th. More modest 70k daily drop as the dipole relaxes from near record recent levels. NSIDC extent 7-12-19....7.901 7-12-12....7.946 7-12-11....7.955

Finally got the slowdown in the rate of daily losses as the dipole pattern relaxes a bit. 2019 is holding on to a very small NSIDC extent lead over 2012. Area also very close to 2012. 7-12-19.....7.971 7-12-12.....8.032

Updated for 3.10 in Oakland, NJ. Oakland 3.10 800 PM 7/11 CWOP