bluewave

Pretty impressive to see the NAM wind gust guidance come in at 70 mph or higher.

Good model agreement on a near record April LLJ for Monday. Short term meso models should provide guidance on how much convection is able to develop. Stronger convection would mix down a portion of these winds from aloft. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off By 18Z Monday guidance shows a southerly 850 mb LLJ of 90-100kts! GEFS ensemble guidance shows v (southerly) component of the jet at 5-6 standard deviations above normal.

Portions of Maine set a new April low pressure record.

Just had a few snowflakes here in SW Suffolk.

Interior portions of the area could see a wet snow squall tonight. Midlevel lapse rates will be near record levels for April.

Some of the highest gusts reported right along the Jersey Shore.

The -NAO/-EPO limited the maximum temperature potential. So the high temperature couldn’t make it to 80 like other recent years. But the -PNA and warming climate gave us the warm departure. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Highest Max Temperature Apr 1 to Apr 10 Missing Count 2020-04-10 68 3 2019-04-10 80 0 2018-04-10 64 0 2017-04-10 82 0 2016-04-10 80 0 2015-04-10 68 0 2014-04-10 67 0 2013-04-10 85 0 2012-04-10 71 0 2011-04-10 70 0 2010-04-10 92 0

Near record April low moving through the Northeast next several days. It will snow over higher elevation and far enough north regions. Our area could see strong storms tomorrow followed by a freeze in the usually colder spots this weekend.

Made it to 63 degrees before the sea breeze arrived.

I hope that you get better soon.

The -EPO takes over once the -NAO weakens. So we get a trough in the Great Lakes and Northeast. The MJO VP anomalies support this general pattern.

Yeah, the MJO supports a trough in the Great Lakes and Northeast around that time.

Good to see the sun come out with temperatures near 60 this afternoon.

It’s been the pattern since 2012 to get a big spring -NAO drop following a +NAO winter. 2012 1.17 0.42 1.27 0.47 -0.91 2013 0.35 -0.45 -1.61 0.69 0.57 2014 0.29 1.34 0.80 0.31 -0.92 2015 1.79 1.32 1.45 0.73 0.15 2016 0.12 1.58 0.73 0.38 -0.77 2017 0.48 1.00 0.74 1.73 -1.91 2018 1.44 1.58 -0.93 1.24 2.12 2019 0.59 0.29 1.23 0.47 -2.62 2020 1.34

Getting some breaks of sun between the rain bands moving through.

All-time record high pressure at1070 mb in Northern Canada today.

Winds coming in above guidance with the big offshore storm. Looks like we get some rain on Friday as the storm loops back toward the coast. Kennedy Intl FAIR 48 31 51 NW29G40 29

We are getting our strong spring -NAO pattern. This has been a common feature in recent years following the record winter +AO./+NAO. Records for high pressure have been set over Northern Canada.

The cutter, hugger, and suppressed southern stream storm tracks have dominated last few years.

Yeah, the warm sun felt nice today. The ocean storm to our SE is beginning to take on some subtropical characteristics. Looks like it will be pretty windy the next few days especially out toward Eastern LI and Cape Cod.

Getting more sun today than yesterday. Strong ocean storm is moving SE of the area under the big -NAO block.

This record +AO pattern was more like something we saw around 1990. https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ Previous studies, led by University of Washington scientist Ignatius Rigor (e.g., Rigor et al., 2002), suggest that a positive winter phase of the Arctic Oscillation favors low sea ice extent the subsequent September. Wind patterns “flush” old, thick ice out of the Arctic Ocean through the Fram Strait and promote the production of thin ice along the Eurasian coast that is especially prone to melting out in summer. However, in recent years, this relationship has not been as clear (Stroeve et al., 2011). The potential effects this winter’s positive AO on the summer evolution of ice extent and the September 2020 minimum bears watching.

If the rate of warming since 1980 continues, then we are on track for +1.5 C of warming around 2035.