bluewave

This is the first two years in a row since the 1990’s without at least a cat 1 Nesis snowstorm. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/rsi/nesis

If NYC can hold the low of 50 degrees so far, then it will be a new record warm minimum temperature for March 3rd. The average low is still just 32 degrees. It will probably come down to the timing of the convection and frontal passage tonight. So March is getting off to a more springlike start for a change. 3/3 48 in 1991 47 in 2004 47 in 1878 https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=KNYC&table=1&num=168&banner=off

Same old story of the fast northern stream suppressing the southern stream. Notice how the jet hitting the PAC NW knocks down the ridge out west too quickly. With a raging +AO, we would have needed substantial help from the Pacific.

Even a temperature departure closer to 2016 or 2010 would be impressive. March...EWR...NYC...LGA 2019.....-1.2...-0.8...-1.0 2018.....-1.7...-2.4...-1.4 2017.....-2.3...-3.3...-1.2 2016...+7.0...+6.4...+6.8 2015....-4.4...-4.4....-4.3 2014....-4.3...-4.8....-5.1 2013....-1.8...-2.4....-1.7 2012...+9.2..+8.4...+8.6 2011...+1.5...-0.2....-0.3 2010...+6.1..+5.7....+5.8

Progressive split flow patterns need a robust enough southern stream UL so the Great Lakes UL doesn’t suppress it.

A faster phase may come down to a stronger southern stream UL like the NAM has.

The EPS continues the warm March theme.

While the NAM is still outside its best range, looks like it wants to phase a little faster than the 0z Euro.

Even though there won’t be any cold to start the storm, it would be nice to see a change to wet snow before the storm ends. Hard to believe it has been 2 years since a deep low passed within 150 miles of the benchmark. It will be interesting to see if the 2 year cutter, hugger, and southern stream suppression storm track pattern is starting to relax But we’ll have to wait until next winter since this could just be the March wavelengths at work.

Models continuing with the warmer than recent Marches theme.

Updated for top 10 warmth in February 2020. 2....2020...EWR...6...NYC...6...LGA....8...JFK...4...BDR...5....iSP...3

The GEFS cold bias strikes again. https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/

Welcome to the all or nothing snowfall era. ISP has been either much above or much below since 2010. A midrange 20’s snowfall season has been missing. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 2020-04-30 6.8 76 2019-04-30 12.8 0 2018-04-30 65.9 0 2017-04-30 39.3 0 2016-04-30 41.4 0 2015-04-30 63.7 0 2014-04-30 63.7 0 2013-04-30 46.9 0 2012-04-30 4.7 0 2011-04-30 55.3 0 2010-04-30 53.8 0

Even for the snowy 2010’s, March 2018 was a big outlier for late season snowfall. ISP broke the March record with 31.9 inches of snow. The interesting stat is that ISP has had only 19.6 inches of snowfall for the last 2 winters. So more than 10 inches less than March 2018. Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 2017-2018 0.0 T 6.0 22.0 1.4 31.9 4.6 65.9 2018-2019 0.0 4.3 T 0.9 3.5 4.1 T 12.8 2019-2020 0.0 0.1 4.2 2.5 0.0 M M 6.8

I guess some small good news is that expectations were lowered well in advance. The very unfavorable Pacific pattern began last winter. Even though the first 3 weeks of December were a little colder than average, the hostile Pacific showed its cards early. The same pattern repeated in early December as all last winter. Cutter and hugger storm tracks lead to the heaviest snows ending up over the interior sections relative to the NYC area. Once the pattern warmed up after December 20th, we experienced one of the most unfavorable MJO, +AO, and +EPO patterns of all-time.

This was a controversial decision when it was made in 2016. https://blogs.agu.org/wildwildscience/2016/07/28/noaa-makes-decision-new-global-weather-model-controversy-likely/ NOAA has decided on the nuts and bolts of a new, next generation, weather model that will replace the present Global Forecast System (GFS model), and the choice is sure to spark some controversy. The choice boiled down to a system called MPAS vs FV3. Many meteorologists were rooting for MPAS, which was developed by NCAR, while NOAA was leaning toward the FV3 which was a project of the GFDL Lab. Dr. Cliff Mass (at the Univ. of Washington) has written several blog posts about how we have fallen behind in numerical weather modelling, and has been championing the MPAS system as the much better way forward. It looks like this will not happen, based on news I just heard about tonight. NOAA chose the FV3 today, instead of MPAS (The video above shows the FV3 in action) and I am anxious to hear the debate that will soon ensue. There are two sides to this issue, and smart people have different opinions on both sides, and NOAA’s press release ishere. I’ve asked Cliff Mass for a comment, and will update this post when new info arrives. NOAA folks, and others, who favor the FV3 core, I would love to share your views as well.

Hopefully, this cold bias gets fixed before next winter. We knew this last winter while the FV3 was the parallel before it became operational. https://www.wired.com/story/the-governments-new-weather-model-faces-a-storm-of-protest/ The government’s new weather forecast model has a slight problem: It predicts that outside temperatures will be a few degrees colder than what nature delivers. This “cold bias” means that local meteorologists are abandoning the National Weather Service in favor of forecasts produced by British and European weather agencies. For the past few weeks, the National Weather Service has been forecasting snowfall that ends up disappearing, according to Doug Kammerer, chief meteorologist at WRC-TV in Washington, DC. “It’s just not performing well,” Kammerer says. “It has continued to show us getting big-time snowstorms in this area, where the European model will not show it.” https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/

I agree. They think that it was a mistake or some type of targeted troll activity. He has one of the best climatology related accounts on twitter. https://weather.com/safety/winter/news/2020-01-30-cloudiest-stretch-january-midwest-chicago-minneapolis Aren't Midwest Winters Always Cloudy? In much of the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and interior Northeast, an average January day is at least 70 percent cloud covered, according to an analysis from Alaska-based climatologist, Brian Brettschneider.

Hopefully, the Great Lakes cutter and coastal hugger storm tracks take a break after the last 2 winters.

At least somebody is getting record snowfall.