bluewave

Thanks. The good news is we still never had a season that was a complete shoutout. Even in the seasons with the most challenging patterns, we have always found a way to get at least some snow. You wonder how bad the pattern would have to be for NYC to finish with just a T or 0. I think Philly came close in 72-73 with a T. But NYC always had at least some accumulation.

While all the models struggled with the EPO forecast, at least the Euro and EPS were closer to reality. Always be weary of long range model forecasts that go against the seasonal background state. That’s why there’s no harm in waiting for an actual pattern change to show up in the short term.

1.8” of snow out of 0.65 LE here in SW Suffolk. Just some patches of snow left on the colder surfaces following the rain and temperature reaching 40 degrees.

We are currently in the top 5 for warmest January monthly minimum temperatures around the area. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jan Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1937 25 0 2 1990 24 0 - 1932 24 0 3 2002 21 0 - 1993 21 0 - 1953 21 0 4 2020 20 13 - 1949 20 0 5 2001 18 0 - 1913 18 0 - 1911 18 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Jan Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1990 21 1 2 1953 18 0 3 1993 17 2 4 2020 16 13 - 2002 16 0 5 1960 15 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Jan Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1990 21 0 2 2020 18 13 - 1993 18 0 3 2002 15 0 - 1998 15 0 4 1995 14 0 5 2016 13 0 - 2006 13 0

Up to 38 now at the Wantagh mesonet.

Very close to the Great South Bay.

Just changed over to rain in SW Suffolk and 33 degrees.

These light snow events before mixing have been the default pattern since last winter. Very 70’s to early 90’s like. You learn to appreciate any snow that you get.

1.8” and 33 degrees here in SW Suffolk.

33 now at Wantagh with the south wind gusting to 19 mph. Up 6 degrees in the last half hour. http://www.nysmesonet.org/mesonow#network=nysm&stid=want

The wind shift just made it to Wantagh. The temperature rose from 27 to 30 in the last 15 minutes on the SE flow.

South Shore beaches up to 34 now at Giigo. https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNYBABYL18?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash

JFK up to 32 now from 29 last hour on the SSE wind. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link.shtml?choice=Kjfk

Looks like the mix line currently just to the west of Philly.

Same here in SW Suffolk. Picked up a quick 0.7” of snow.

Quick .5 inch of snow here in SW Suffolk and 28.6 degrees.

Same here in SW Suffolk. Picked up a quick coating and 30 degrees.

Great post, Tom. Misalignment has been a common theme recently. Last winter we saw the the Niña-like warmth in the WPAC result in the uncoupled El Niño. So we had the Niña-like ridge axis stuck north of Hawaii. This year we have experienced a continuation of that persistent ridge axis north of Hawaii. Now we are getting the amplification of the ridge in SE Canada with the Niño-like +AAM spike. But a piece of that ridge north of Hawaii holds on into the 6-10 day forecast. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/csi-enso-case-missing-central-pacific-rainfall

Snowiest day on record for St. John’s.

I found the link for hourly updates. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link.shtml?choice=LFVP

Intense blizzard in Newfoundland today.

The other interesting thing is the really delayed responses we have seen following MJO 8 passages during our recent winters. Last February we entered phase 8 but the snowy conditions came in March. February 2018 featured the historic 80 degree warmth shortly after the MJO 8 passage. The record snows came in March 2018. The only reasonably close in time event was the 1-4-18 benchmark blizzard that bottomed out at 950 mb. That came shortly after the phase 8 in late December. The January 2016 blizzard came about 10 days after phase 8. I know that there have been studies showing a snowstorm lag following phase 8. But sometimes it seems to take longer than even the studies have indicated.

The expansion of the WP warm pool has been favoring the warmer MJO phases.

Yeah, we need to get a shift in that ridge position north of Hawaii to allow more of a -EPO to develop. We usually see the ridge position pull back toward NW Canada and Alaska during and El Niño February. Hopefully, that ridge north of Hawaii doesn’t interfere. That region experienced a historic marine heatwave in 2019. You can see how persistent that ridge has been this winter.