bluewave

Islip still in 1st place for driest September with just 3 days to go. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 2019 0.61 3 2 1985 0.81 0 3 1986 0.82 0 4 1965 1.01 0 5 1982 1.12 0

Notice the much greater amplitude of the Arctic pressure pattern swings since 1990. This would seem to match the 2009 corals study.The record summer Arctic dipole pattern from 2007 to 2012 and new lowest extent. Rapid reversal in 2013 and 2014. Then stronger dipole anomalies in 2016 and 2019. Continuation of the long term Arctic sea ice decline with very choppy volatility from year to year. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/01/090113101200.htm Swings In North Atlantic Oscillation Variability Linked To Climate Warming Anthropogenic (human-related) warming does not appear to be altering whether the NAO is in a positive or negative phase at multi-decadal time scales,” said WHOI paleoclimatologist Konrad Hughen. “It does seem to be increasing variability. Clearly, this has implications for the future.” “As temperatures get warmer, there’s potential for more violent swings of the NAO — the phases becoming even more positive and even more negative,” Hughen added. “If the NAO locks more into these patterns, intense storms will become more intense and droughts will become more severe.”

A new satellite era record for so far east in the Atlantic.

This drought will allow portions of the East to challenge all-time October high temperatures next week.

The developing flash drought is impacting areas to our SW the hardest.

Light rainfall events are par for the course in an expanding flash drought situation.

Newark continuing to climb the highest number of 80 degree days during the last 10 days of September list. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Max Temperature >= 80 Sep 21 to Sep 30 Missing Count 1 2017-09-30 7 0 - 1959-09-30 7 0 2 1986-09-30 6 0 - 1970-09-30 6 0 - 1968-09-30 6 0 - 1961-09-30 6 0 - 1945-09-30 6 0 3 2011-09-30 5 0 - 2007-09-30 5 0 2019-09-30 5 4

Another high temperature guidance beat with the expanding flash drought conditions in the East. The 85 at Newark is 12 degrees above normal for 9-26.

Rapid expansion of the flash drought across our region on the latest update. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu

Very impressive intensity for so far to the east in the Atlantic.

September 2019 is a continuation of the 2010’s endless summer pattern. 9 out of 10 years featuring above normal temperatures. SEP....EWR...NYC...LGA 2019...+1.5...+1.3...+2.0.....so far 2018...+3.2...+2.7....+3.7 2017...+2.7...+2.5....+2.4 2016...+3.6...,+3.8...+4.7 2015...+5.2....+6.5...+5.0 2014..+1.6....+1.7....+1.3 2013...-1.0....-0.1.....-1.0 2012...+1.3...+0.8....+3.4 2011....+3.0..+2.0....+1.6 2010...+3.4....+3.1...+3.4

Let’s hope that they keep to that promise. We have seen past model upgrades before the bugs were worked out. It does look like it could be a very challenging task. Launching new models isn’t easy. https://vlab.ncep.noaa.gov/web/environmental-modeling-center/fv3-convective-allowing-forecast-system While the NAM does very well with low temperatures and CAD, it runs too cool with the high temperatures like we saw yesterday. The Euro seems to have a better handle on high temperatures. But it was even a few degrees too low yesterday with the strong WAA and dry conditions ahead of the front.

The Euro may become even more the go-to model once the NAM stops running. Could be quite a challenge for the new model to handle the NAM’s strengths. Just look at the new biases that poped up when the GFS was recently upgraded. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/02/14/weather-service-prepares-launch-new-prediction-model-that-many-forecasters-dont-trust/ https://mobile.twitter.com/jhomenuk/status/1171950138698473478

The 93 max at Newark today was the 2nd highest temperature during the last 10 days of September. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=CLIEWR&e=201909232042 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Highest Max Temperature Sep 21 to Sep 30 Missing Count 1 1970-09-30 94 0 2 1959-09-30 93 0 1931-09-30 93 0 2019-09-30 93 0

Yeah, the flash drought has helped. Very unusual blocking ridge from the Arctic down into the US this month.

Funny how Newark couldn’t reach 90 on Memorial Day, Independence Day, and Labor Day. But had no problem making it to at least 91 on the first day of fall. Wonder if this has happened before? 5-27....82 7-4......89 9-2......77 9-23.....91 so far

NSIDC extent dropped to the second lowest minimum on record. 2019 was effectively tied with 2016 and 2007. https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ Table 1. Thirteen lowest minimum Arctic sea ice extents (satellite record, 1979 to present) RANK YEAR MINIMUM ICE EXTENT DATE IN MILLIONS OF SQUARE KILOMETERS IN MILLIONS OF SQUARE MILES 1 2012 3.39 1.31 Sept. 17 2 2019 2007 2016 4.15 4.16 4.17 1.60 1.61 1.61 Sept. 18 Sept. 18 Sept. 10 5 2011 4.34 1.68 Sept. 11 6 2015 4.43 1.71 Sept. 9 7 2008 2010 4.59 4.62 1.77 1.78 Sept. 19 Sept. 21 9 2018 2017 4.66 4.67 1.80 1.80 Sept. 23 Sept. 13 11 2014 2013 5.03 5.05 1.94 1.95 Sept. 17 Sept. 13 13 2009 5.12 1.98 Sept. 13 Values within 40,000 square kilometers (15,000 square miles) are considered tied. The 2018 value has changed from 4.59 to 4.66 million square kilometers (1.80 million square miles) when final analysis data updated near-real time data, dropping 2018 to a tied ninth position with 2017.

Warmest first day of fall this decade. Newark first day of fall high temperatures since 2010 9-22-10...90 9-23-11...75 9-22-12...78 9-22-13...72 9-22-14....73 9-23-15....80 9-22-16....84  9-22-17....85 9-22-18....75 9-23-19....91 and rising

One of the more impressive flash droughts to impact the region during September in a while. What a difference a year makes.

Today could be the first time since 2010 that fall started with a 90 degree day at Newark. Newark first day of fall high temperatures since 2010 9-22-10...90 9-23-11...75 9-22-12...78 9-22-13...72 9-22-14....73 9-23-15....80 9-22-16....84 9-22-17....85 9-22-18....75

+15 high temperature departure at Newark today. MAXIMUM 89 200 PM 94 1970 74 15 https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=EWR&product=CLI&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

It’s tough to say which one of these many competing factors will win out for the winter.

That’s a remarkable stat. Just saw it posted on twitter. Record warmth and high pressure over the Arctic since May. https://mobile.twitter.com/AlaskaWx/status/1175034044578295808 https://mobile.twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1170022132216029185

Very impressive Arctic Amplification this September with so much open water. https://www.arctictoday.com/arctic-sea-ice-is-close-to-its-annual-minimum-extent-but-thats-just-part-of-the-picture/?wallit_nosession=1 As the autumn equinox looms and winter darkness approaches, Arctic sea ice has dwindled to what appears to be one of the lowest minimums in the satellite record. “We are basically right now in a dead tie for second place,” Mark Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center, said on Wednesday. Ice extent — defined as the area where there is at least 15 percent ice coverage — dropped to 4.1 million square kilometers on Tuesday, matching minimums set in 2007 and in 2016, according to the Colorado-based NSIDC. It will take a few more days to know whether this year’s minimum has been set and the freeze season has started, Serreze said. Total ice extent can waver up and down at this time of the year because of shifting winds and a contest between freeze at the highest latitudes and continued melt in the more southern parts of the Arctic, he said. This year’s minimum extent has no chance of matching the record-low 3.4 million square kilometers (1.32 million square miles) hit in 2012, Serreze said. Still, it fits into a trend to more open water over longer periods of the year, he said. All that open water reinforces the warming cycle in the far north, strengthening the phenomenon known as Arctic Amplification, he said. When waters lack ice cover, they absorb more solar heat, he said. “You’ve got to get rid of all that heat,” he said. “Where does that heat go? Up into the atmosphere.” While annual minimums are useful markers for long-term trends, the expanding durations of open water are turning out to have more immediate significance, said Rick Thoman, climate scientist with the Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy at the University of Alaska Fairbanks. That is especially the case for the waters off Alaska — the Bering, Chukchi and Beaufort seas — where ice has been especially scarce, even in the past winters, he said. The official Arctic-wide minimum extent is only part of the picture, he said. “For Alaska, it doesn’t make much of a difference if it’s No. 1 or No. 4. There hasn’t been any ice anywhere near Alaska for a very long time and the water that’s there is extremely warm,” Thoman said. In the waters off northern and northwestern Alaska, sea-surface temperatures were generally running 3 to 6 degrees Celsius (5.4 to 10.8 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal during the second week of September, according to data gathered by ACCAP. That sets the stage for a delayed freeze season, he said. “We can be absolutely certain that freeze-up in the Beaufort, Chukchi and at least the central Bering will be late,” he said. Delayed freeze likely means a warmer-than-normal fall and, when the winter freeze arrives, ice that is thin and more susceptible to midwinter meltdowns similar to those that occurred in the past two years in the Bering and the Chukchi, he said. The past years’ winter ice loss may have been highly unusual, but repeat occurrences could become more common if southerly winds return, Thoman said. “I think you’ll see the big collapses like we’ve had in the past two years. That requires that sustained southerly flow. We won’t see that every year,” he said. Thoman noted that with the exception of the extreme low in 2012, annual minimums over the past decade have been generally in the same ballpark. That is because the very high-latitude ice, unlike ice at lower Arctic latitudes, has relatively brief period of the year when there is direct sunlight shining on it and causing melt from above, he said. “We have melted all the easy, low-latitude ice now,” he said. Melting out ice at the highest latitudes will require a different process, he said. “That’s going to come from the ocean. That’s going to come from underneath,” he said. Serreze, too, said the highest-latitude ice has lingered despite widespread melt elsewhere in the Arctic. At those very high latitudes — for now — there is still multiyear ice that survives melt seasons, he said. But more changes are expected in the future, he said. “We are kind of in new territory,” he said. “We have not been here before, so every year we’re learning.” https://mobile.twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1175055129290010624 Well above average temperatures over nearly the entire #Arctic Ocean so far this September. This is especially found in areas where there is a lack of sea ice cover.

You are correct. It was our only major station to reach 90 degrees in October since the 1950’s. Looks like a warm offshore flow let JFK get a degree above LGA and EWR. JFK 2007-10-08 90 66 78.0 18.3