bluewave

Ice-free Arctic summers could hinge on small climate warming range https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/04/180402110733.htm A range of less than one degree Fahrenheit (or half a degree Celsius) of climate warming over the next century could make all the difference when it comes to the probability of future ice-free summers in the Arctic, new University of Colorado Boulder research shows. The findings, which were published today in the journal Nature Climate Change, show that limiting warming to 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit (1.5 degrees Celsius) would reduce the likelihood of an ice-free Arctic summer to 30 percent by the year 2100, whereas warming by 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius) would make at least one ice-free summer certain. "I didn't expect to find that half a degree Celsius would make a big difference, but it really does," said Alexandra Jahn, author of the study and an assistant professor in CU Boulder's Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and a fellow in the Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research (INSTAAR). "At 1.5 degrees Celsius, half of the time we stay within our current summer sea ice regime whereas if we reach 2 degrees of warming, the summer sea ice area will always be below what we have experienced in recent decades." The study used simulations from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) run at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and examined warming scenarios ranging from 1.5 degrees Celsius all the way to 4 degrees Celsius (7.2 degrees Fahrenheit) by the end of the century. The lower bound of the study is an important benchmark worldwide; in 2015, the international Paris Climate Agreement set a global target of constraining warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Arctic sea ice extent has declined overall in recent years with increasing global temperatures, but the effects of future warming remain uncertain. The new findings illustrate that different scenarios of carbon dioxide (CO2) emission levels lead to drastically different results for Arctic summer sea ice. "This dataset allows us to predict how soon we're likely to see ice free conditions as well as how often," said Jahn. "Under the 4-degree Celsius scenario, we would have a high probability of a three-month ice free period in the summer months by 2050. By the end of century, that could jump to five months a year without ice. And even for half that warming, ice-free conditions of up to 2 month a year are possible by the late 21st century." But, Jahn continued, if warming stays at 1.5 degrees Celsius, the probability of ice-free summers would drop by 70 percent, delaying or potentially even avoiding such occurrence altogether. The significant difference in the results, Jahn said, might provide added incentive for countries to attempt to hit the 1.5-degree Celsius warming target in order to preserve current ecological conditions. "The good news is that sea ice has quick response times and could theoretically recover if we brought down global temperatures at any point in the future," said Jahn. "In the meantime, though, other ecosystems could see permanent negative impacts from the ice loss, and those can't necessarily bounce back." The study was funded by the University of Colorado Boulder and the National Science Foundation. Story Source: Materials provided by University of Colorado at Boulder. Original written by Trent Knoss. Note: Content may be edited for style and length. Journal Reference: Alexandra Jahn. Reduced probability of ice-free summers for 1.5 °C compared to 2 °C warming. Nature Climate Change, 2018; DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0127-8

https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/ecology/2018/11/autumn-spring-arctics-new-season November on the coast of the Barents Sea has been unseasonably warm. Halfway, the Norwegian Meteorological Institute could report 5,9 degrees Celsius above normal for Troms and Finnmark region in northern Norway. What was snow-covered and frozen in late October is again rainy and warm. The warm weather are confusing plants and trees. Some, like the low-growing goat willow tree, believes it is spring. On Friday, catkins, the fuzzy soft silver-colored nubs, started to appear, both near Kirkenes and in Murmansk Both are cities far above the Arctic Circle. Catkins are actually the trees’ flowers just before they fully bloom, like you normally can see in late April, early May in the Barents Region. “Very interesting, but not at all good news,” says Paul Eric Aspholm, Research Scientist with the Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research (NIBIO). Aspholm works at Svanhovd, NIBIO’s department in the Pasvik valley in the Norwegian-Russian borderland, the heart of the area experiencing some of the most dramatic climate changes in the Arctic. He explains how such confusion like we see this November could harm trees and plants in the Arctic. “The plants use a lot of energy when blooming. It is a kind of failed reproduction and no seeds are produced. One thing is the catkins we can see, but there are likely a lot of other processes going on inside the plant disturbing the balance in what should be the dormant phase.”

JFK picked up 3.7 back in November 1989. I added the top 10 greatest snowfall amounts in November for JFK. #1...4.8....2018 #2...4.3....2012 #3...3.7...1989 #4...2.6....1995 #5...2.1....1967 #6...1.7....1978 #7...0.6....1977...1959 #8...0.5....1949 #9...0.4....1987...1986 #10...0.3...2002

https://mashable.com/2018/04/02/arctic-sea-ice-temperature-targets/#JiMVWHeLpgqI Walt Meier, a senior research scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) in Boulder, Colo., said he's not surprised the studies found such a large difference between Arctic sea ice cover at 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming versus 2 degrees. "Sea ice is quite sensitive to temperature because it’s so thin. And as temperatures warm, it gets thinner. The thinner the ice, the higher the chances that summer melt will be enough to remove the ice," he said in an email. Meier was not involved in the new studies. "I think that somewhere between 1.5 degrees Celsius and 2.0 degrees, the ice cover gets thin enough over a large enough region of the Arctic for it to completely melt during summer. At the low end, 1.5 degrees, there is probably enough remaining thick ice (e.g., greater than 2 meters) that it’s less likely that all of that thicker ice could melt in a summer," Meier said. There's another issue, though, with studies like these that examine the benefits of a 1.5-degree target. Based on emissions trends and projections, such a target is illusory, since the world is on track to blow right past it. Might it make more sense to study the consequences of far more severe warming, given that that's where we're headed?

Updated for the record breaking snowstorm on November 15th. This makes November 2018 a top 1-4 snowiest on record for all our major stations. November 2018 NYC....#4...6.4 EWR...#3...6.4 LGA...#2....4.7 JFK....#1...4.8 ISP...#2....4.3

The 4 warmest January to October periods have occurred in the last 4 years. Data using @NASAGISS GISTEMP since 1880. [Graphic fromcolumbia.edu/~mhs119/Temper…] pic.twitter.com/g7WqwuVR0d 7:59 AM - 16 Nov 2018 Similarly, preliminarily analysis from @NASAGISS shows October 2018 as the 2nd warmest on record (in at least 138 years) [GISTEMP method/data available at data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/] pic.twitter.com/kpGygYCV5g 8:20 AM - 15 Nov 2018

#seaice finally forming the past few days at Utqiaġvik (Barrow). The@SNAPandACCAP Sea Ice Atlas helps us understand just how unusual in the historical context it is to be happening so late in the autumn. h/t @themadstone#akwx #Arctic @Climatologist49 @vennkoenig @ZLabepic.twitter.com/P79bT73pPq 8:53 PM - 15 Nov 2018

You make an excellent point about the importance of looking at annual sea ice metrics. Luckily, Zack Labe has a fantastic site that includes these types of graphs. 2016 was the lowest annual extent on record. The lowest annual volume was recorded in 2017.

You should research the sources that you get your material from. The authors you cited aren't even qualified in the field of climate science. That's why the graph is so inaccurate compared to the legitimate study in the NSIDC link that I posted.

Not even close. https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2018/01/ Using a compilation of maps, ship reports, and other records, NOAA has published monthly estimates of Arctic sea ice extent spanning 1850 to 2013. While data in the earlier part of the record is limited, the carefully constructed time series helps to put the more recent satellite record in a longer-term context. Figure 5a shows the decline in extent over the period of satellite observations standing out prominently in comparison with the rest of the record, especially in late summer and early autumn. An earlier period of unusually low summer sea ice extent around 1937 to 1943 (as compared to the 1850 to 2013 average) did not extend to the winter season, and was followed by a few years of significantly higher-than-average summer ice extents. Early in the record (1850 to 1900), winter ice extent was not particularly elevated relative to the 1850 to 2013 average, but summer sea ice extent was quite a bit higher higher than the average. As another way to place recent conditions into a longer context using this data set, we show the years of the lowest September extent recorded within the 50-year periods 1850 to 1900, 1901 to 1950, 1951 to 2000, along with the lowest over the period 2000 to 2013 (Figure 5b). The decline in extent is apparent. https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-piecing-together-arctic-sea-ice-history-1850 Most fundamentally of all, the new dataset allows us to answer the three questions we posed at the beginning of this article. First, there is no point in the past 150 years where sea ice extent is as small as it has been in recent years. Second, the rate of sea ice retreat in recent years is also unprecedented in the historical record.

It's perfectly normal to have both up and down bounces within a long term downward trend of the Arctic sea ice. Ed Hawkins had a great post on this. Unfortunately, nothing has changed the long term downward trajectory of the sea ice. We are on track for our first technically ice free September sometime during this century. People such as yourself incorrectly take short term fluctuations and try to extrapolate them into the future. This is the reason so many people stop posting in this forum when the global temperatures set new records in the last few years. They tried to interpret a short term fluctuation in global temperatures during the last decade as some kind of deviation from the long term warming trend. My bet is posters like you will eventually abandon this thread at some point in the future when you figure out the same with the Arctic sea ice.There is still hope that you will eventually figure out what everyone else knows and stop making these uninformed posts.

It's not increasing. The long term downward trend continues. Try reading up on the topic before you make these uninformed posts. The NSIDC would be a great place for you to start. https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2018/10/ Arctic sea ice extent for September 2018 averaged 4.71 million square kilometers (1.82 million square miles), tying with 2008 for the sixth lowest September in the 1979 to 2018 satellite record. This was 1.70 million square kilometers (656,000 square miles) below the 1981 to 2010 average, and 1.14 million square kilometers (440,000 square miles) above the record low recorded for September 2012. Prior to September 19, sea ice extent declined at a relatively rapid 14,440 square kilometers (5,580 square miles) per day, significantly faster than in most years. The near-zero loss rate between September 19 and 23, and the very late onset of significant seasonal ice growth after September 23, were atypical of the satellite record. Sea ice extent for September 2018 fell just above the long-term linear trend line. The linear rate of sea ice decline for September is 82,300 square kilometers (32,000 square miles) per year, or 12.8 percent per decade relative to the 1981 to 2010 average.

Zack Labe created a great chart showing the monthly Arctic temperature rankings. The last 3 Octobers were the warmest on record for the Arctic. Ranking of #Arctic air temperatures by month over the satellite era - now updated through October 2018 + Ranks (colors): 1=warmest (red), 40=coldest (blue) + Download/Info: sites.uci.edu/zlabe/arctic-t…pic.twitter.com/bwxR7kGKnr 9:50 PM - 8 Nov 2018

Record low #Arctic sea ice area continues around Svalbard (since at least 1967 - @Istjenesten charts). Temperatures at Longyearbyen (~78°N latitude) have been 6.8°C above average in last 30 days. + Weather data:yr.no/place/Norway/S… … + Sea ice data: polarview.met.nopic.twitter.com/G41EuQJR3p 12:23 PM - 12 Nov 2018

October sea ice extent in the Arctic ranks third lowest in satellite record. Extent remains especially low on the Atlantic side of the Arctic in the Barents and Laptev Seas, which may relate to the "Atlantification" of the Arctic Ocean.nsidc.org/arcticseaicene… pic.twitter.com/erSCCGlBkC 9:03 AM - 6 Nov 2018 https://www.carbonbrief.org/atlantification-arctic-sea-tipping-towards-new-climate-regime Rising temperatures and declining sea ice are driving a “rapid climate shift” in the Arctic’s Barents Sea, a new study says. The research, published in Nature Climate Change, finds that warming conditions and decreasing sea ice volume “may soon” see the Barents Sea complete a transition from cold, fresh Arctic waters to a warm, salty Atlantic regime. If current trends continue, the transition could occur “around 2040”, the lead author tells Carbon Brief. This would have “unknown consequences” for the wider ecosystem and commercial fishing, the study warns.

2018 was the 2nd warmest October on record for the Arctic behind 2016.

Updated for November 11-2/3. ...Orange County... Monroe 4.96 800 AM 11/03 Trained Spotter ...Passaic County... 1 NE Wanaque 4.36 804 AM 11/03 AWS ...Westchester County... Shrub Oak 3.10 630 AM 11/03 Co-Op Observer

Our quarterly @CarbonBrief State of the Climate report is now out! So far 2018 has featured record-high ocean heat content, sea level, and greenhouse gas concentrations. Surface temperatures are on track to be the 4th warmest after 2016, 2017 and 2015. carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-c…pic.twitter.com/vLzGeBH5bl 8:09 AM - 23 Oct 2018

https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/alaska-sees-usually-warm-weather-during-fall/ Alaska lawns still green with unusually warm fall weather Originally published October 22, 2018 at 10:12 pm Updated October 23, 2018 at 8:07 am ANCHORAGE, Alaska (AP) — Alaska’s early fall has been unusually warm as a massive high-pressure system camped out around the state. The warmer weather has allowed lawns to stay green in Anchorage and for farmers to continue harvesting crops in Palmer during a month when the state typically begins to freeze, the Anchorage Daily News reported Sunday. The lack of typical snow and subfreezing temperatures is unsettling to some. The village of Savoonga on St. Lawrence Island had no ice, weeks into October. “It’s not freezing up,” said Delbert Pungowiyi, Savoonga tribal president. “Normally, we’d be able to cross the rivers and lakes.” Climatologist Rick Thoman said most of the state is “running way above normal” this month. Sea-surface temperatures in Chukchi and Bering seas are also “exceptionally warm,” he said. Utqiagvik was 9 degrees above normal for the first half of the month, and Nome was 13 degrees above normal. Anchorage is setting record high temperatures and has passed the previous record for latest freeze of the year. The Fairbanks area had less than an inch of snow last week, marking the latest snowfall on record, according to the National Weather Service. Fairbanks usually gets about 10 inches (25 centimeters) of snow in October. UPDATE: Stations with a colder low temperature than Anchorage, Alaska, through October 19th (≤37°F). Since Sept 1, Anchorage has set 14 daily high temp records and 10 warm low temp records. #MakeItStop @AlaskaWx@DaveSnider pic.twitter.com/Mnu6ESYfub 6:05 PM - 20 Oct 2018 A few years ago @Climatologist49 and I created an index to track the Alaska temp departures using 25 locations around the state. Here's the daily average temp dept from normal & the index since June 01. Current warm streak is the greatest since Apr-May 2016. #akwx @wxjerdman pic.twitter.com/yUPl5sQZwO 9:35 AM - 20 Oct 2018

Updated for the 3.94 at Sayville. Sayville 3.94 700 AM 10/12 CoCoRaHS

Record warmth continues with nearly no sea ice gains the last few days. The delayed freeze up is letting 2018 get closer to 2nd lowest extent for early October set in 2007.

This current Arctic temperature spike is now easily the warmest on record for the early part of October. Another example of Arctic amplification going off the rails. http://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/ Rick Thoman @ AlaskaWx Chukchi Sea ice extent from the @NSIDC passive microwave data has fallen over the past several days and as of October 05 is the third lowest since 1979: only 2007 and 2012 were lower. #Arctic #akwx #seaice @Climatologist49@ZLabe @CinderBDT907 pic.twitter.com/aZiqV4FWuT 8:54 AM - 6 Oct 2018

Updated for the areas of Fairfield County that picked up over 3.00" with the storms yesterday. ...Fairfield County... 2 NE Fairfield 3.95 703 AM 10/03 CoCoRaHS 2 ENE Fairfield 3.82 815 AM 10/03 CWOP 5 SE Bedford 3.82 700 AM 10/03 CoCoRaHS Stamford 3.75 600 AM 10/03 Trained Spotter Darien 3.65 653 AM 10/03 Social Media 2 NW Darien 3.65 700 AM 10/03 CoCoRaHS 3 NNW Norwalk 3.57 700 AM 10/03 CoCoRaHS 4 NNW New Canaan 3.54 630 AM 10/03 CoCoRaHS 2 S New Canaan 3.35 615 AM 10/03 CoCoRaHS 1 WNW Westport 3.30 815 AM 10/03 CWOP

The continuing record warmth is allowing the 2018 extent to edge closer to October 2007 and 2012.

Updated for September 2018. 9..2018....EWR...7....LGA...6...JFK.....8....BDR..6...ISP.....3