bluewave

Islip finally dipped to 61 degrees. So they tied the record for minimum temperatures remaining at or above 63 degrees. Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 63 for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date 1 46 2019-08-09 - 46 1988-08-18 2 42 1994-08-04 3 33 1980-08-16 4 32 2013-07-24 - 32 2006-08-08 5 31 1967-08-07

Really impressive to get two consecutive years with so many measurable rainfall days through August 9th. The only rainfall extreme that hasn’t occurred for us yet is a 10”+ day. We saw this in August 2014 at Islip and Long Beach in August 2011. But there is still time for something like that to happen with the right set up during this run. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Precipitation >= .01 Jan 1 to Aug 9 Missing Count 1 2018-08-09 98 0 - 1950-08-09 98 0 2 2019-08-09 97 0 3 1916-08-09 96 0 4 2003-08-09 95 0 - 1938-08-09 95 0 5 2008-08-09 93 0 - 1996-08-09 93 0

We haven’t missed an opportunity for flash flooding or severe since July 11th. Parts of the area are close to 10” over the last 30 days. It will all come down to where the warm front stalls and waves of low pressure track next week. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation Jul 11 to Aug 8 Missing Count 1 1988-08-08 9.95 0 2 2019-08-08 9.34 0 3 2003-08-08 9.20 0 4 1948-08-08 8.69 0 5 1961-08-08 8.68 0

NSIDC extent held steady on August 8th. 2019 has fallen behind 2012 by 134 k during the period of the Great Arctic Cyclone. 2019 needs an average daily loss rate of 123k next few days to hold even with 2012 by the 11th. NSIDC extent    Date....2012......2019....2019 difference 8-4......5.990.... .5.762.....+228k lead 8-5......5.768......5.596.....+172k lead 8-6......5.632......5.510......+122k lead 8-7......5.467......5.388......+79k lead  8-8......5.256.....5.390......-134k behind 8-9......5.088 8-10....5.118  8-11....5.021

Next organized storm system Tuesday into Wednesday. It may come with a few waves of low pressure. Good temperature gradient along the stalled out warm front. Mid 90’s to near100 to our south. Areas right under the track could get another good soaker plus severe. So the exact track will be important.

I am seeing that gorgeous light show to my west. The lightning is really well defined with the lack of haze.

It has been an amazing dewpoint surge since 2016. This was the first July with an average dewpoint over 70 degrees for JFK. Last year was the first such occurrence in August.

Updated for a 3.21 max in Livingston TWP, NJ. 2 NNE LIVINGSTON TWP 3.21 700 AM 8/08 COCORAHS

Large 122k daily drop in NSIDC extent . 2019 needs an average daily decline rate of 92k next 4 days to remain even with 2012 by the 11th. NSIDC extent    Date....2012......2019....2019 difference 8-4......5.990.... .5.762.....+228k lead 8-5......5.768......5.596.....+172k lead 8-6......5.632......5.510......+122k lead 8-7......5.467......5.388......+79k lead  8-8......5.256 8-9......5.088 8-10....5.118  8-11....5.021

Yesterday was the 18th day this year with a 75 degree or higher dewpoint at JFK. First time ever with 4 consecutive years of 17 or more days. JFK also set a new daily rainfall record for 8-7 of an 1 inch. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=161&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=JFK&var=max_dwpf&dir=aoa&thres=75&month=all&year=2019&dpi=100&_fmt=js

1.63” now for the day in Wantagh. http://www.nysmesonet.org/weather/meteogram#network=nysm&stid=want 6 hours: 1.43″ 1 day: 1.63″

Heaviest downpour here along the South Shore since July 23rd. Wantagh at .75 on the day so far.

2019 needs an average NSIDC daily decline rate of 98k next 5 days to be even with 2012 on the 11th. NSIDC extent   Date....2012......2019....2019 difference 8-4......5.990.... .5.762.....+228k lead 8-5......5.768......5.596.....+172k lead 8-6......5.632......5.511......+121k lead 8-7......5.467 8-8......5.256 8-9......5.088 8-10....5.118 8-11....5.021

2014 to 2018 was the first time NYC went 5 consecutive summers with no June or July 50’s. LGA has a 11 year streak going. White Plains has a 17 year streak continuing above 50 degrees. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Lowest Min Temperature Jul 1 to Aug 31 Missing Count 2018-08-31 62 0 2017-08-31 60 0 2016-08-31 61 0 2015-08-31 63 0 2014-08-31 61 0 2013-08-31 59 0 Time Series Summary for LA GUARDIA AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Lowest Min Temperature Jul 1 to Aug 31 Missing Count 2018-08-31 64 0 2017-08-31 61 0 2016-08-31 66 0 2015-08-31 64 0 2014-08-31 63 0 2013-08-31 62 0 2012-08-31 63 0 2011-08-31 62 0 2010-08-31 64 0 2009-08-31 61 0 2008-08-31 60 0 2007-08-31 58 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER COUNTY AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Lowest Min Temperature Jul 1 to Aug 31 Missing Count 2018-08-31 53 0 2017-08-31 56 0 2016-08-31 54 0 2015-08-31 57 1 2014-08-31 54 1 2013-08-31 53 0 2012-08-31 54 0 2011-08-31 56 1 2010-08-31 53 1 2009-08-31 54 0 2008-08-31 51 0 2007-08-31 52 0 2006-08-31 54 0 2005-08-31 57 0 2004-08-31 54 0 2003-08-31 53 0 2002-08-31 53 0 2001-08-31 49 0

One of the more impressive cloud to water lightning displays south of Jones Beach this summer.

Serious flash flooding in Baltimore. https://mobile.twitter.com/SoniaDasgupta?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author FLOODING IN BALTIMORE | Numerous WJZ viewers sent in videos and photos of cars up to their hoods in water. One sent a photo of a man on the roof of a vehicle needing to be rescued

There’s a new definition of a summer cool down during the 2010’s. EWR, LGA, JFK, and NYC have a few days with highs in the 80’s and lows in the 60’s. Less warm is the new cool.

This is one of those days when the ocean temperature is warmer that the air temperature at the beach. SST’s continue in the upper 70’s without any August major heat. More fuel for high dewpoints and heavy rains around the region. STATION/POSITION TIME SKY/WX TEMP WIND PRES VSBY WAVE AIR SEA DIR/SP/G HT/PER (UTC) (F) (DEG/KT/KT) (MB) (MI) (FT/S) NY Harb Entrance 1850 75 77 170/ 8/ 10 1011.0 2/ 9 20 S Fire Island 1850 75 78 190/ 2/ 4 1011.3 2/ 9 Great South Bay 1815 75 80 CALM / 4 N/A 23 SSW Montauk P 1850 72 10/ 8/ 10 1011.5 3/ 8 15 E Barnegat Li 1830 79 N/A 2/18 Hudson Canyon 1850 78 79 80/ 4/ 6 1011.0 3/ 8 Jones Beach N/A 75 N/A N/A S6 N/A Breezy Point N/A 75 N/A N/A S10 N/A

US Hurricane landfalls have been more backloaded since 2014. More October landfalls than JJA combined since 2014.The Joaquin 1000 year floods trough interaction in 2015 isn’t included since there was no landfall. But plenty of flood damage. https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/E23.html 2010 None 2011 Aug NC, 1 1 952 75 Irene 2012 Aug LA, 1 1 966 70 Isaac 2012 Oct * NY, 1 1 942 65 Sandy 2013 None 2014 Jul NC, 2 2 973 85 Arthur 2015 None 2016 Sep FL, NW1 1 981 70 Hermine 2016 Oct * FL, NE2; GA, 1; SC, 1; NC, 1 2 963 85 Matthew 2017 Aug TX,S 4 4 937 115 Harvey 2017 Sep FL,SW 4,SE 1 4 931 115 Irma 2017 Oct LA 1, MS 1 1 983 65 Nate 2018 Sep NC 1 1 956 80 Florence 2018 Oct FL, NW 5; I-GA 2 5 919 140 Michael

We’ll probably have to rely on these convective events for our rainfall chances a while longer. Some hints from the EPS weeklies that the tropics will become active in September. https://mobile.twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1158519860537651201 ECMWF weekly guidance FINALLY suggests a relaxation of the sinking branch over the Atlantic after September 10th. This could coincide with an increase in tropical cyclone activity across the basin.

That’s what it’s looking like.

Large 166k daily drop in NSIDC extent. We are entering the big decline week when 2012 pulled ahead of all other years. This was during the period of the Great Arctic Cyclone. NSIDC extent  Date....2012......2019....2019 difference 8-4......5.990.... .5.762.....+228k lead 8-5......5.768......5.596.....+172k lead 8-6......5.632 8-7......5.467 8-8......5.256 8-9......5.088 8-10....5.118 8-11....5.021 No let up in sight for the continuing record dipole pattern.

The steam makes a return for Wednesday. Mid 70’s dewpoints coupled with PWATS around 2.00”. Plenty of high octane juice for heavy convection.

https://mobile.twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1158565610860814338 Just a warning about using one of my (really) old maps that still circulates. NCEP CFSR reanalysis has a significant problem after March 2011 when the model switched from T382 to T574. This creates a mismatch if you compare months before & after. Only use the JRA-55 or ERA5. https://mobile.twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1157318343482888192 July 2019 average temperature was 16.77°C and is hottest month in instrumental record maybe tied with July 2016 by a hundredth of a degree. Regardless of the significant figures, the Earth was quite warm overall last month.

Dewpoints already on the rise ahead the Wednesday night heavy convection potential. Euro has another surge into the mid-70’s on Wednesday,