bluewave

The Pacific basin SST anomaly configuration has shifted from this time last year. Will this continue through the fall? Is it enough of a shift to weaken or divert the firehose Pacific Jet? Stay tuned....

Our big jump in summer dewpoints coincided with the global moisture surge following the 15-16 super El Niño. 2017 was our coolest summer of the last 4 years. But the dewpoints were still very high. So it’s anyone’s guess when we’ll see a less humid summer again. https://mobile.twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1163204080568819712

Today will be our last 90 degree day potential for a while before the pattern changes. Looks like the record -NAO/-AO limited the number of 90 degree days this year. So we will finish with fewer 90 degree days than several other warm seasons this decade. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 2019 22 132 2018 36 0 2017 22 0 2016 40 0 2015 35 0 2014 15 0 2013 25 0 2012 33 0 2011 31 0 2010 54 0

Gorgeous photo of the rainbow after the storms.

Newark gusted to 45 mph. Strongest winds on that warned storm are near Jersey City now.

2019 is at the 10th lowest NSIDC extent as of 8-20. 3.387....2012-9-17 4.155....2007-9-18 4.165....2016-9-10 4.344....2011-9-11 4.433....2015-9-9 4.586....2018-9-23 4.615....2010-9-21 4.656....2018-9-23 4.665....2017-9-13 4.734....2019

This summer is another example of dewpoints on the rise. Another 75+ dewpoint day around the area. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=76&network=NJ_ASOS&station=ACY&season=summer&varname=dwpf&year=1893&hours=0-23&dpi=100&_fmt=png

The Atlantic finally becoming more active. Chantal is one of the furthest north developing tropical cyclones. But not a surprise given the warmest SST departures further north off the East Coast like we have seen in recent years. https://mobile.twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1164009256544133123 Chantal was named at 40.2°N - the highest latitude named storm formation location for an Atlantic tropical cyclone since Alberto in 1988

It looks we’ll probably finish August with under 10 days reaching 90 degrees. The Septembers that followed this pattern since 2010 usually featured 0 to 3 days reaching 90 degrees at Newark. Missing count column has the number of September 90 degree days. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 2019 3 2018 14 4 2017 2 3 2016 13 5 2015 13 5 2014 2 3 2013 3 1 2012 7 2 2011 4 0 2010 11 6

Doesn’t look like anything too impressive at this time as the high will still be east of New England near the end of the month. Maybe a few warmer days before the next cold front and high moves in first week of September. But September is usually good for a few more 90 degree days.

No big heat or humidity for a while after this week. The WAR and Bermuda high gets replaced by the high over SE Canada. So we get into a NE to E flow from the Canadian Maritimes.

Moderate to heavy downpour here in SW Suffolk with the sun out.

People leaving the beach at Coney Island as thunderstorms quickly develop.

Yeah, several hours of lower dewpoints with the wind shift and storms before rebounding back to 75+.

Caldwell away from the onshore flow almost made it to 95 degrees today. Caldwell FAIR 94 70 45 VRB6 29.96F HX 100

100 degree heat index now in Stony Brook. Stony Brook N/A 88 77 70 SE3 N/A HX 100

Heaviest rainfall just missed to my east last night. But still picked up .5 to .75. 8/18/2019 8:00 AM NY-SF-129 Brightwaters 0.5 NNE 1.27 0.0 | 0.00 0.0 | 0.00 NY Suffolk

Very impressive to see this with a non-tropical cyclone event. https://mobile.twitter.com/SteveBowenWx/status/1162901150695383041 This has gone a bit under the radar, but parts of Florida's Big Bend has seen estimated rain totals of 25+ inches since August 15. Remarkable for a non-tropical cyclone event! #FLwx

Heat indices will quickly rise as we get more sun with dewpoints 75+.

Mild winters and humid summers have been the new normal following the global temperature jump in 15-16. It will be interesting to see how long it takes for another cold winter and less humid summer. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 2018-2019 36.3 0 2017-2018 36.2 0 2016-2017 39.3 0 2015-2016 41.0 0 2014-2015 31.4 0 2013-2014 32.9 0 2012-2013 36.8 0 2011-2012 40.5 0 2010-2011 32.8 0 2009-2010 33.8 0

12z Euro delivers big on tropical moisture levels from Sunday through Thursday. Every day has max dewpoints at 75 degrees and above. Scattered convection each day except Monday which it has as the hottest. The cold front finally arrives on Friday drying things out for a time. Areas that get the most frequent convection will probably have some impressive rainfall totals and flooding through Thursday.

Area near Bethpage picked up an inch with training cells. Street flooding probably beginning in the usual spots.

Yeah, these boundaries often produce with 75 degree or higher dewpoints.

The 12z NAM has heat indices approaching 100 Monday in NJ with the very high humidity. https://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/conussfc.php?run=2019081712&time=INSTANT&var=HTIDXF&hour=057

The high dewpoints are back. Looks like the 20th day this year at JFK with a 75 degree or higher dewpoint. This is the now the 3rd highest number of days on record. Just an amazing record breaking high dewpoint surge since 2016. Kennedy Intl PTSUNNY 79 75 87 NE6 30.03S