bluewave

Yesterday looks like it will be our last 90 degree day potential for a while. Canadian high pressure builds back in behind Dorian. Then another one in about a week passes by to our north. This has been a very persistent pattern since late August. We’ll have to see if the warm spots can sneak in more 90 degree potential in mid to late September between the big Canadian highs.

Looks like the 11th 89 degree day of the year at LGA ties for first place. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link.shtml?choice=Klga Time Series Summary for LA GUARDIA AP, NY - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature = 89 Missing Count 1 2016 11 0 - 1995 11 0 2019 11 119 2 1991 8 0 3 2015 7 0 - 2013 7 0 - 1994 7 0 - 1959 7 0 - 1943 7 0 4 2018 6 0

Typo. 7th place should read 2008. 3.387....2012-9-17 4.155....2007-9-18 4.165....2016-9-10 4.286.....2019 4.344....2011-9-11 4.433....2015-9-9 4.586....2008-9-19 4.615....2010-9-21  4.656....2018-9-23  4.665....2017-9-13

I saved them.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Special Marine Warning National Weather Service New York NY 445 PM EDT Wed Sep 4 2019 The National Weather Service in Upton NY has issued a * Special Marine Warning for... Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 NM... Fire Island Inlet to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 NM... * Until 515 PM EDT. * At 444 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing waterspouts was located over Barnum Island, moving east at 35 knots. HAZARD...Waterspouts, wind gusts 34 knots or greater, and small hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Waterspouts can easily overturn boats and create locally hazardous seas. Small craft could be damaged in briefly higher winds and suddenly higher waves. * The severe thunderstorm will be near... Jones Beach around 450 PM EDT.

12z NAM forecast soundings for later have another day this week with tornado potential.

One of the largest NSIDC daily extent losses for the month of September on the 4th. The 112 k daily drop moves 2019 into 4th place. The late August stall followed by accelerated losses is a first for the post 2007 Arctic. It shows how volatile the Arctic pressure patterns have become. ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/seaice_analysis/Sea_Ice_Index_Daily_Extent_G02135_v3.0.xlsx 3.387....2012-9-17 4.155....2007-9-18 4.165....2016-9-10 4.286.....2019 4.344....2011-9-11 4.433....2015-9-9 4.586....2008-9-19 4.615....2010-9-21 4.656....2018-9-23 4.665....2017-9-13

This is a closer video of the tornado and its aftermath.

Historic Labor Day heat in Denver.

A photo of the tornado out in Eastern Suffolk. https://mobile.twitter.com/ryanhanrahan

We haven’t missed an opportunity for heavy rains in recent times.

While 2017 was our warmest October on record at +7.2, Newark only made it to 86 degrees.

Larger 97k drop yesterday puts 2019 into 5th place for lowest annual daily NSIDC extent. 3.387....2012-9-17 4.155....2007-9-18 4.165....2016-9-10 4.344....2011-9-11 4.419....2019 4.433....2015-9-9 4.586....2018-9-23 4.615....2010-9-21 4.656....2018-9-23 4.665....2017-9-13

2018 and 2015 will go into the record books as the only Labor Days to reach 95 degrees this decade. Newark 9-3-18....95 9-4-17....82 9-5-16....86 9-7-15....95 9-1-14....92 9-2-13....83 9-3-12....78 9-5-11....85 9-6-10....80

Only 1 less 70 degree minimum this summer than last year at LGA. But a wider spread between last year at other stations like ISP. Time Series Summary for LA GUARDIA AP, NY - Jun through Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Missing Count 1 2006 63 0 2 2010 62 0 - 2005 62 0 3 2012 61 0 4 2018 59 0 5 2019 58 0 6 2016 57 0 - 2015 57 0 7 2013 54 0 8 1999 51 0 9 2007 50 0 - 1988 50 0 - 1966 50 0 10 2017 49 0 - 2002 49 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Jun through Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Missing Count 1 2018 34 0 2 2016 32 0 - 1988 32 0 3 2013 31 0 - 2010 31 0 4 1999 30 0 5 2002 29 0 - 1980 29 0 6 2015 28 0 7 2005 27 0 8 2006 26 0 9 2012 25 0 - 1995 25 0 - 1994 25 0 - 1969 25 0 10 2019 24 0 - 2011 24 0 - 2003 24 0

2nd highest average dewpoint summer for JFK and 3rd at ISP. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=76&network=NY_ASOS&station=JFK&season=summer&varname=dwpf&year=1893&hours=0-23&dpi=100&_fmt=png

73k daily drop on NSIDC extent as we move past the stall period with the extreme reverse dipole pattern. This puts 2019 into 6th place. 3.387....2012-9-17 4.155....2007-9-18 4.165....2016-9-10 4.344....2011-9-11 4.433....2015-9-9 4.516....2019 4.586....2018-9-23 4.615....2010-9-21 4.656....2018-9-23 4.665....2017-9-13

We’ll see if the warmer spots can sneak in a 90 degree reading ahead of the next cold front late Wednesday. That may turn out to be the warmest day here early this month.

We can say this fall is starting out much cooler than we experienced in recent years. Several big Canadian highs rolling by to our north at least through the 10th. No major 95+ heat which was common in recent years through the first 10 days of the month. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Highest Max Temperature Sep 1 to Sep 10 Missing Count 2018-09-10 98 0 2017-09-10 87 0 2016-09-10 93 0 2015-09-10 98 0 2014-09-10 95 0

August finishes with less warmth than last year. 7 out of the last 10 warmer than normal at EWR and NYC 6 out of the last 10 warmer than normal at LGA August....EWR....NYC....LGA 2019......+0.4.....+0.3.....+1.3. 2018.......+3.4.....+2.9.....+4.7 2017.......-1.8.......-1.2......-0.9 2016......+4.1......+4.0......+5.3 2015......+2.9.....+3.8.......+3.0 2014......-1.3......-0.7........-1.2 2013.....-1.1.......-0.6........-0.5 2012.....+1.8.....+1.5........+2.4 2011.....+1.1.....+0.1........-0.3 2010....+1.9......+2.2.......+2.3

It really is a very extreme pattern. We’ll just have to wait and see how things progress going forward.

It wasn’t able to figure out the more Niña-like pattern ahead of time. So the more Niño looking seasonal forecast didn’t work out. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/csi-enso-case-missing-central-pacific-rainfall

2019 moves into 7th place on NSIDC extent at 4.589 million sq km as the extreme reverse dipole relaxes. Just a bit above the 2007-2018 average daily minimum extent of 4.510. 3.387....2012-9-17 4.155....2007-9-18 4.165....2016-9-10 4.344....2011-9-11 4.433....2015-9-9 4.586....2018-9-23 4.589....2019 4.615....2010-9-21 4.656....2018-9-23 4.665....2017-9-13

The Euro seasonal from back in March did a nice job with the summer forecast. Warmth along the coasts with cooler in the middle. Really nailed the record heat signal for Alaska.

This August is another example of less warm is the new cool. Relatively low number of August 90 degree days for the 2010’s this month. JFK hasn’t reached 90 degrees since July 21st. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 2019 4 1 2018 14 0 2017 2 0 2016 13 0 2015 13 0 2014 2 0 2013 3 0 2012 7 0 2011 4 0 2010 11 0 Time Series Summary for LA GUARDIA AP, NY - Month of Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 2019 5 1 2018 16 0 2017 2 0 2016 10 0 2015 8 0 2014 1 0 2013 1 0 2012 6 0 2011 2 0 2010 11 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 2019 1 1 2018 5 0 2017 0 0 2016 7 0 2015 2 0 2014 0 0 2013 0 0 2012 0 0 2011 2 0 2010 4 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTL AP, NY - Month of Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 2019 0 1 2018 4 0 2017 0 0 2016 6 0 2015 6 0 2014 0 0 2013 0 0 2012 2 0 2011 2 0 2010 8 0