bluewave

Updated for the new all-time October record high temperatures across the region.

20 stations in the East US broke or tied their all-time record high October temperature today.

All the more extreme when you consider that the previous latest 95 of the season at JFK was on 9-11-83. First/Last Summary for JFK INTL AP, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year First Value Last Value Difference 1983 06-13 (1983) 95 09-11 (1983) 96 89 2010 06-24 (2010) 97 08-31 (2010) 97 67 1973 08-28 (1973) 98 08-30 (1973) 95 1 1948 - - 08-29 (1948) 96 - 1969 05-29 (1969) 99 08-25 (1969) 97 87

Just had some very strong 30-40 mph gusts ahead of the storms here in SW Suffolk. The dried leaves were blowing all over the place. Only a few drops of rain as the bulk of the rain missed to my east.

New all-time October high temperature record of 94 at Newark. Less than 2 years after the February all-time record high of 80 in 2018.

You were one of the few cooler spots. Even the more rural HPN finished at +2.6 like EWR.

16 all-time October record high temperatures broken or tied today.

Looks like Syracuse also set a new all time October record high of 88 degrees. Time Series Summary for SYRACUSE HANCOCK INTL AP, NY - Month of Oct Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1963 87 0 2 1951 86 0 - 1950 86 0 - 1949 86 0

New all time record October high temperature in Cincinnati today.

September has shown one of the fastest rates of temperature increase across the region since 1981. The temperature has been rising at +1.3 degree F/ decade at LGA and +1.4 at Albany.

Updated for the 8th warmest September at LGA. 9...2019....LGA...8

September 2019 was a continuation of the 2010’s endless summer pattern. 9 out of 10 years featuring above normal temperatures. SEP....EWR...NYC...LGA 2019...+2.6....+2.4....+3.0 2018...+3.2...+2.7....+3.7 2017...+2.7...+2.5....+2.4 2016...+3.6...,+3.8...+4.7 2015...+5.2....+6.5...+5.0 2014..+1.6....+1.7....+1.3 2013...-1.0....-0.1.....-1.0 2012...+1.3...+0.8....+3.4 2011....+3.0..+2.0....+1.6 2010...+3.4....+3.1...+3.4

Another record breaking ridge.

70 degree Septembers have become the new normal around here. The first decade for LGA with 9 out 10 years finishing 70+. While the temperatures has been steadily rising throughout the year, the fall rise has been a little faster than the other seasons. So September has become like a 4th month of summer. Time Series Summary for LA GUARDIA AP, NY - Month of Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2005 74.9 0 2 2015 74.1 0 3 2016 73.8 0 4 2007 73.0 0 5 2018 72.8 0 6 2010 72.5 0 7 2019 72.3 1 8 1998 71.6 0 9 2017 71.5 0 10 2002 71.3 0 11 2012 70.7 0 - 2011 70.7 0 - 2004 70.7 0 - 1985 70.7 0 12 1983 70.6 0 13 2014 70.4 0 - 2008 70.4 0 14 1999 70.2 0

JFK just missed the record high today by a degree. WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL .................................................................. TEMPERATURE (F) TODAY MAXIMUM 81 215 PM 82 1948 71 10 76 MINIMUM 68 415 AM 44 2000 56 12 58 AVERAGE 75 63 12 67

Only if you are a cold and snowy weather lover living around Montana.

I can’t remember the last time we saw a nearly 4 SD PNA drop at the end of September.

One of the warmest and driest Septembers across the US with a tiny area recording their greatest September snowstorm.

Great research and forecast from Elsner back in 2008.

2010 EWR....Apr...Max...#4...92...May....Max...#5...95...Jun...#5...98...Min...#1...80...Jul...Max...#4...103...Min..#3...Aug...Min...#4...79...Sep...Min..#4...76 NYC...Apr...Max...#2...92..Jul...Max....#3....103....Min....#4....81...Sep....Max....#5...96....Min....#2...78 LGA...May...Max...#4...94...Jun...Min....#5....78...Jul...Max...#3....103...Min...#3...84...Aug...Min...#4...81...Sep...Min...#1...81 JFK... BDR... ISP... 2011 EWR...Feb...Max...#5...71....May...Min...#5...71....Jun...Max....#1...102....Jul...Max...#1...108..Min...#1....86 NYC....Jul...Max...#2...104...Min...#1...84 LGA...Jun...Max...#5...97...Jul...Max...#2....104...Min...#2...85...Dec...Min...#4....55 JFK... BDR... ISP.... 2012 EWR...Jun...Max...#4...99...Min...#2...79...Jul...Max...103...#4 NYC...Jun...Min...#2...79 LGA...Feb...Min...#3...50...Mar..Min...#4...56..Apr...Min...#5...65...Jun...Max...#4...98...Min...#3...80 JFK... BDR... ISP.... 2013 EWR...May...Min...#4...72...Jul...Min...#3...82...Sep..Min...#5...75....Oct...Max....#5...89...Dec...Max...#4...71....Min...#3...57 NYC...May...Min...#2...75...Jul...Min...#2...83...Sep...Max...5....96...Min....#3...77....Dec...Max...#3...71...Min...#2...61 LGA...May...Max...#5...93...Min...#4...76...Jul...Max...#5...100...Min...#1....86...Sep...Max...#4...94...Min...#5...77....Dec...Max...#5...69 JFK... BDR ISP 2014 EWR...Sep...Min...#5...75...Oct....Min....#4...69 NYC...Sep...Min...#3...77 LGA...Sep...Max...#5...93...Min...#3...79 JFK... BDR... ISP.... 2015 EWR...Jul...Min...#5...80....Sep...Max...#4...98...Min...#5...75....Nov....Min....#3....64....Dec...Max...#4...71...Min...#1...59 NYC...Jul...Min...#3...82...Sep...Max...#4...97....Min...#4...76...Nov...Min....#2...66...Dec...Max...#2...72...Min...#1...63 LGA...Jul...Min...#4...83...Sep...Max...#5...95...Nov...Min...#2...65...Dec...Max...#2...72...Min...#1...59 JFK... BDR... ISP... 2016 EWR...Mar..Max...#5...82...Min...#4...59...May...Max...#4...96....Min....#5...71....Jul...Min...#5...80...Aug...Min...#3...80...Sep...Min...#2....78 NYC...Mar...Min...#2...63...Jul...Min...#5...80...Aug...Min...#4....81...Sep...Min...#5...75 LGA....Mar...Max...#5...78...Min...#1...62...Jul...Min...#5...82...Aug...Min...#2...84...,Sep...Max...#5....93....Min...#5...77 JFK... BDR... ISP.... 2017 EWR...Feb...Max...#3...74...Min..#2...53..Apr...Min...#5...65...May....Min...#2....74....Jun...Max...#4...99...Min...#4...77...Oct...Min...#1...73 NYC....Jan...Max...#5...66....Feb...Min...#1....58...May...Min...#2...75...Jun...Min...#4...77...Oct...Min...#2...72 LGA....Jan...Max...#2...68...Feb...Max...#4...70...Min...#2...53...Max...#4...88...Min...#5...65...May...Max...#1...97...May....Min...#1...80...Jun...Max...#1.....101..Min...#3...80...Oct...Min...#3...71 JFK.... BDR... ISP... 2018 EWR...Feb...Max...#1...80...Min...#1...56...Aug...Min...#5...78...Sep...Max...#4...98...Min...#2...78...Oct...Min...#3...70...Nov...Min...#2...65 NYC....Feb...Max...#1...78....Min...#2...55....Sep...Min...#3...77....Oct....Min...#3...71 LGA...Feb...Max...#1...79....Min...#3...50...May...Max...#5...93....Min...#5...71...Aug...Min...#2...84...Sep...Min...#2...80...Oct...Min..#3...71...Nov...Min...#4...63 JFK... BDR... ISP.... 2019 EWR..Jul...Min...#5....80...Oct...Max...#1...96 NYC...Jul...Min...#3....82...Oct...Max...#2...93 LGA....Jul...Max...#5...100...Min...#4....83...Oct...Max...#1...95 JFK....Jul...Min...#3...80...Oct...Max...#1...95 BDR...Jul...Max...#3...99....Min...#3...77...Oct....Max....#2...87 ISP.....Apr...Min...#5....56....Jul...Max...#5....99...Min...#2...79....Oct...Max....#1...89 2020 EWR...Jan...Max...#3....70....Min...#5....48 NYC....Jan...Max...#3....69 LGA....Jan...Max....#3....67 JFK....Jan....Max...#3....Min....#4....47 BDR...Jan....Max...#1...69 ISP....Jan....Max...#2....68....Min....#3....50

The expansion of the flash drought continues in the East. A top 3 driest September for several local stations to date. After record rainfall since February 2018, you knew that we would eventually flip to dry for a period if time. Time Series Summary for LA GUARDIA AP, NY - Month of Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 2005 0.39 0 2 1941 0.62 0 3 2019 0.64 2 4 1951 1.01 0 5 1980 1.16 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTL AP, NY - Month of Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 1959 0.87 0 2 1965 0.96 0 3 2019 1.10 2 4 2007 1.11 0 5 1982 1.15 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 2019 0.61 2 2 1985 0.81 0 3 1986 0.82 0 4 1965 1.01 0 5 1982 1.12 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER COUNTY AP, NY - Month of Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 2009 0.60 0 2 2019 0.71 2 3 2014 0.75 2 4 1948 1.13 0 5 1986 1.15 0

The update looks great. The record high for Newark today is 87. Looks like they made it to 86. MAXIMUM 86 259 PM 87 2014 72 14

Islip still in 1st place for driest September with just 3 days to go. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 2019 0.61 3 2 1985 0.81 0 3 1986 0.82 0 4 1965 1.01 0 5 1982 1.12 0

Notice the much greater amplitude of the Arctic pressure pattern swings since 1990. This would seem to match the 2009 corals study.The record summer Arctic dipole pattern from 2007 to 2012 and new lowest extent. Rapid reversal in 2013 and 2014. Then stronger dipole anomalies in 2016 and 2019. Continuation of the long term Arctic sea ice decline with very choppy volatility from year to year. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/01/090113101200.htm Swings In North Atlantic Oscillation Variability Linked To Climate Warming Anthropogenic (human-related) warming does not appear to be altering whether the NAO is in a positive or negative phase at multi-decadal time scales,” said WHOI paleoclimatologist Konrad Hughen. “It does seem to be increasing variability. Clearly, this has implications for the future.” “As temperatures get warmer, there’s potential for more violent swings of the NAO — the phases becoming even more positive and even more negative,” Hughen added. “If the NAO locks more into these patterns, intense storms will become more intense and droughts will become more severe.”

A new satellite era record for so far east in the Atlantic.