bluewave

My 3 favorite seasons for snowstorms this decade were 10-11, 15-16, and 17-18.

NYC needs a cold winter to have a shot at a 50” or greater snowfall season. But had its two greatest snowstorms on record during the warm 05-06 and 15-16 winters.

Cold winters have been tough to come by for the NYC Metro since the 15-16 super El Niño. Our last cold winter was 14-15. Mild winters and humid summers have been the recent dominant pattern. Be interesting to see how long it takes to deviate from this recent winter and summer regime. 2010’s winter temperature departures 09-10....below 10-11....below 11-12....above 12-13....above 13-14....below 14-15....below 15-16....above 16-17.....above 17-18.....above 18-19.....above

The record Pacific warming that began in 2013 has had a big impact on our weather patterns. The favored areas for cold have been the Upper Plains, Midwest, and Western Great Lakes. I think that is why the composite resembles several winter forecasts that have been released so far including the Weather Company and CPC. But you never really know for sure for each individual winter with all the volatility that we have seen. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=2

Yeah, the PMM increased further with the September update. All the seasonal models have another anomalously strong NP ridge this winter. But they disagree on the longitude of the strongest ridge axis. Makes a big difference for us if it is west based over the Aleutians or east based over NW Canada. Especially when it combines with whatever phase of the NAO we get. http://www.aos.wisc.edu/~dvimont/MModes/RealTime/pmm_current.pdf

Updated for the second breaking storm of the month. New October Record Low Pressures in New England https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/10/17/powerful-weather-bomb-socks-new-england-with-wind-gusts-mph-knocking-out-power-more-than-half-million/

You really wonder how this influence the tropical forcing pattern going forward since the rest of the Pacific is so different from 94-95. Will the MJO avoid the Maritime Continent 4-5 phases? If it does, then what will the interaction with the other drivers look like in creating our sensible weather?

Updated for 10-16-19 10-17....Norwich, CT...6.15”...numerous 3.00”+ amounts across the area https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201910171436-KOKX-NOUS41-PNSOKX

They usually release it in December.

The Arctic Ocean must have absorbed an impressive amount of heat over the summer. Current 5 day NSIDC extent as of 10-16 is 5.170 million sq km. Extent was 5.422 on 10-16-12. So the unusually slow extent gain pattern continues.

That Stony Brook gust was at 390 feet the roof of the hospital. That’s why it was higher than the other local gusts.

Technically we are ENSO neutral right now. But neutral patterns can alternate between characteristics of El Niño and La Niña. That’s why I use the term “like”. November in recent years has more of a similarity to March than the winter. Cold November....cold March.....Warm November....warm March

That westward shift in the warmest SST departures in the NPAC has been happening over the last month. Looks like it’s just reflecting the more Niña-like pattern. The strong ridge from north of Hawaii to the Aleutians will produce that kind of SST pattern. It will be interesting to see how all the competing factors interact to produce the November pattern and beyond. This is the first time that Niño 1+2 and 3 were so cool with near record +IOD levels for this time of year. The other question is how long will the late October -EPO pattern last? Does it have some staying power or will the ridge pull back to the Aleutians?

Plenty of volatility to this stormy pattern post super typhoon recurve. Continuation of a more Niña-like pattern next week. Big ridge north of Hawaii and fast Pacific jet. But that ridge is set to expand NE to Alaska turning the EPO negative day 8-10. -EPO In October is more Niño -like. So October may end with some colder than normal temperatures.

Finally our first 1.00”+ areawide soaking in a single event since July 23rd.

Numerous October record breaking low pressures across New England. It was only 2 years ago that several records were set.

Looks like the first sting jet damage reports coming in to our SW.

Gilgo Beach gusting to 46 mph now. https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=F3143&unit=0&timetype=LOCAL

Possible waterspouts south of Long Island now.

Very impressive super-res radar velocity images with the damaging winds moving up the Jersey Shore.

The Euro wind gust product is doing better than the other models. It had 60 mph gusts for that part of the Jersey Shore. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/new-jersey/gusts-3h-mph/20191017-0000z.html

First downed tree report of the event.

Beach Haven, NJ has SE gusts to 44 mph now.

The 12z Euro also has a sting jet like feature crossing Long Island around midnight.

Record breaking jet streak in the early part of the storm development.