bluewave

July 23rd was the last 1.00”+ rainfall event for all 5 of our major climate stations at the same time. We have a chance with the the storm system on Wednesday. Just need the rapidly deepening secondary to track close to the area. Should be a brief cool down behind the storm. Then the SE Ridge builds and above normal temperatures return.

Storm finally pulling away. Sun just came out here.

The one day NSIDC extent figure is in a virtual tie with 2012 as of October 11th. 2019...4.998 million sq km....2012...4.964 Five day average difference is a little greater. 2019...4.959...2012....4.684 This is only the second time that the sea ice extent was still below 5 million sq km as late as October 11th.

Root for the wetter Euro Wednesday if you finally want to see a good soaking rain. It tracks the rapidly deepening secondary low right across our area. Could also be wind issues if the stronger Euro solution verifies.

So far this is the driest first half of fall for several of our stations. Just about every storm since the end of August underperformed on rainfall. FRG has had less than 1.00”of rain since September 1st. Time Series Summary for LA GUARDIA AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation Sep 1 to Oct 11 Missing Count 1 2019-10-11 1.69 0 2 1997-10-11 1.77 0 3 1982-10-11 1.84 0 4 1941-10-11 1.97 0 5 1948-10-11 1.99 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation Sep 1 to Oct 11 Missing Count 1 1982-10-11 1.28 0 2 2019-10-11 1.38 0 3 1997-10-11 1.42 0 4 1986-10-11 1.63 0 5 1965-10-11 1.80 0 Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation Sep 1 to Oct 11 Missing Count 1 2019-10-11 0.80 4 2 2013-10-11 0.90 0 3 2007-10-11 2.40 0 4 2001-10-11 2.41 2 5 2016-10-11 2.64 0 Time Series Summary for SOMERSET AIRPORT, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation Sep 1 to Oct 11 Missing Count 1 2016-10-11 1.17 0 2 2019-10-11 1.20 1 3 2014-10-11 1.66 0 4 2017-10-11 1.88 2 5 2007-10-11 2.48 0

Great display of sea foam today at Nantasket Beach.

The super typhoon recurve should produce a more Niña-like firehose Pacific Jet pattern like we saw last winter. We may have to look to the MJO further out in time to reinforce or change this pattern.

Looks like a record 6 SD jet streak for this time of year north of Japan with the super typhoon recurve. So expect a very active and changeable pattern next few weeks. This could eventually end up pumping the SE Ridge for some late October warmth.

The storm has been taking on more subtropical characteristics the last few hours. Convection has almost completely wrapped around the center. An eye has become more visible now. a

Today probably had the best waves of the year in Long Beach.

At the 5.46 ft moderate coastal flood level in Freeport now. The highest tide of the last few years was right around the 6.0 ft low end major. https://waterdata.usgs.gov/ny/nwis/uv?site_no=01310521

Looks like widespread moderate with some localized low end major possible. Could be close to the highest levels of the last 2 years across the South Shore back bays. http://hudson.dl.stevens-tech.edu/sfas/

That’s ok. It looks like our old friend the Pacific firehose jet will be making a come back next few weeks. So maybe something for everyone with such a fast flow.

Last week was the greatest 24 hr temperature drop for the month of October. April 2003 was the 3rd biggest 24 hr drop of all-time behind January 2014 and 1978.

One of the best days for surfing this year in Long Beach.

We had our largest October temperature drop last week.

Impressive stall in sea ice extent gains this week. It allowed 2019 to pull a little closer to 2012. NSIDC extent

Models struggled with forecasts for this storm from the start. It could only get so far west with such a major storm over the Plains. Not much spacing between the two storms.

I guess getting sunny nor’easter conditions is par for the course in a dry pattern.

I think people are going to be surprised to see the clear skies and sun early this morning on Long Island.

There was a a drier area between the NYC and Eastern LI bands.

Your area is often close to the sharp cutoff in precipitation when the track of the low is so far to the east. Like a rainfall version if 1-25-15.

The lows have been warmer outside the city so far this month relative to the means. POU...Max...+1.5...Min...+4.3...Avg...+2.8 HPN...Max...+3.9..Min...+4.2...Avg....+4.0 LGA...Max...+4.0...Min...+1.7..Avg....+2.8 NYC...Max...+4.3...Min...+2.2..Avg....+3.3

A 50 or 60 mile precipitation adjustment from 24-36 hrs out is within the margin of error for most storms. We mainly notice it since the population is so high here. Most of the time these shifts go unnoticed out in the Plains or Rockies where there is so much space between the smaller towns.

The minimum temperature departures this month have actually been higher outside NYC. POU...Max...+1.5...Min...+4.3...Avg...+2.8 HPN...Max...+3.9..Min...+4.2...Avg....+4.0 LGA...Max...+4.0...Min...+1.7..Avg....+2.8 NYC...Max...+4.3...Min...+2.2..Avg....+3.3