bluewave

The forecast strength of the TPV is near record levels for this time of year. That’s why the models have such a strong +AO rise coming up.

Looks like 2019 will go out with the prevailing stuck weather pattern. Storm track corrects warmer from the initial day 10 forecast. So it’s fitting that this year will end on the mild and wet side. New 120 hr Old 240 hr

Same to you and your family. We can have a back and forth without any hard feelings.

All that information has been posted in the climate change forum.

You don’t get to pick and choose which scientific fields you think are hoax.

Yes you did. Go back and see how life was before the scientific revolution.

The temperature rise is extremely rapid for such a short period of time. Calling science a hoax is never a good idea. That kind of world outlook is straight out of the dark ages.

Temperatures in rural NJ are rising at the same rate as NYC. https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/national/climate-environment/climate-change-america/ New Jersey may seem an unlikely place to measure climate change, but it is one of the fastest-warming states in the nation. Its average temperature has climbed by close to 2 degrees Celsius since 1895 — double the average for the Lower 48 states.

This looks more like LA with the smog trapped under the inversion.

November and March have been our only reliable cold departure months in a sea of annual warmth. Notice how they have had a similar departure relationship. Maybe some aspect of the background forcing state is behind this unusual pairing? The only year this decade the relationship didn’t work was 16-17. The years that they were both warm like 09-10, 11-12, and 15-16 were among the warmest on record. NYC Season...Nov....Mar 19-20.....-3.8 18-19.....-3.3.....-0.9 17-18.....-1.1.....-2.4 16-17.....+2.1....-3.3 15-16.....+5.1....+6.4 14-15.....-2.4.....-4.4 13-14.....-2.4......-4.8 12-13.....-3.8......-2.4  11-12....+4.2.....+8.4 10-11.....+0.2.....-0.2  09-10....+3.4.....+5.7

But the rural, suburban, and urban temperature departures are similar.

We know that warming can be an uneven process. But this late month warmth is an interesting feature. You would think that the warmest temperatures for NYC would occur earlier in the month. The average NYC high on 12-1 is 48 and 39 on 12-31. NYC had 5 years from 2011 to 2018 with the monthly highest temperature occurring between the 21st and 31st. It used to be uncommon for NYC to have its warmest December temperature beyond the middle of the month. NYC highest December temperature dates after the 20th 12-21-18....61 12-27-16....60 12-24-15....72 12-22-13.....71 12-21-11.....62 tie with earlier dates

What does consider the source mean? This holiday week warming is a widespread story. It’s not just localized to a small area.

CWG did a nice story on this a few weeks back. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/12/16/winter-holidays-are-warming-rapidly-mid-atlantic-northeast/ The winter holidays are warming rapidly in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast The week leading up to Christmas is warming twice as fast as the rest of the winter in many East Coast cities.

This has nothing to do with urbanization. POU had exactly the same +16 high temperature departure as NYC yesterday. Data for POUGHKEEPSIE AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Max Temperature Departure 2019-12-23 54 16.3 2019-12-24 M M Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Max Temperature Departure 2019-12-23 57 16.3 2019-12-24 M M

Almost difficult to keep up with all these record breaking rainfall events.

The high temperature reached 57 degrees in NYC on Monday. This warmth right before Christmas has become really pronounced since 2001. NYC has gone 17 out of the last 19 years reaching 55 or warmer in the week before Christmas. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Highest Max Temperature Dec 18 to Dec 24 Missing Count 2019-12-24 57 1 2018-12-24 61 0 2017-12-24 55 0 2016-12-24 58 0 2015-12-24 72 0 2014-12-24 58 0 2013-12-24 71 0 2012-12-24 56 0 2011-12-24 62 0 2010-12-24 40 0 2009-12-24 39 0 2008-12-24 58 0 2007-12-24 61 0 2006-12-24 59 0 2005-12-24 55 0 2004-12-24 59 0 2003-12-24 56 0 2002-12-24 60 0 2001-12-24 58 0

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-05978-1 Ocean heatwaves will become more frequent and extreme as the climate warms, scientists report1 on 15 August in Nature. These episodes of intense heat could disrupt marine food webs and reshape biodiversity in the world’s oceans. Scientists analysed satellite-based measurements of sea surface temperature from 1982 to 2016 and found that the frequency of marine heatwaves had doubled. These extreme heat events in the ocean's surface waters can last from days to months and can occur across thousands of kilometres. If average global temperatures increase to 3.5 °C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century, as researchers currently project, the frequency of ocean heatwaves could increase by a factor of 41. In other words, a 1-in-100-day event at pre-industrial levels of warming could become a 1-in-3-day event. Marine heatwaves have already become more long-lasting, frequent, intense and extensive than in the past,” says lead study author Thomas Frölicher, a climatologist at the University of Bern in Switzerland. He adds that these changes are already well outside what could be expected on the basis of natural swings in Earth’s climate: the study’s analysis determined that 87% of heatwaves in the ocean are the result of human-induced global warming. Going global Scientists have studied heatwaves on land for decades. But it wasn’t until researchers faced episodes of extreme heat in the ocean in the past several years that they started paying more attention to the issue at sea. Those episodes included the massive warm water ‘blob’ in the northeastern Pacific Ocean that killed off sea otters (Enhydra lutris) in Alaska and sea lions (Zalophus californianus) in California, and disrupted fisheries off North America from 2014 to 2015. They also included the massive 2015–16 El Niño that ravaged coral reefs around the world. The emphasis on marine heatwaves is really motivated by the recognition that the same kinds of extremes can happen in the ocean as on land,” says Noah Diffenbaugh, a climatologist at Stanford University in California. He adds that this latest study takes global perspective on these regional issues. The study provides a useful framework for disentangling short-term temperature spikes from long-term warming trends in the oceans, says Kris Karnauskas, a physical oceanographer at the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences at the University of Colorado Boulder. He says that marine heatwaves could be the result of natural temperature swings that become more extreme owing to a warming ocean. Or they could be a signal that global warming is changing how the ocean functions — thus altering the likelihood and intensity of marine warming events. Frölicher says current models suggest that more frequent and intense ocean heatwaves are largely a result of warming oceans. And now, he and his team are working to develop models that can explore marine heatwave trends and their ecological impacts at local and regional levels. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0383-9

The ensemble means don’t have much skill beyond day 6-10. So reliable model themes start to emerge right around day 8-10. Leaning too heavily on day 11-15 model output usually ends in disappointment.

The forcing came right back to the Maritime Continent as the IOD returned to neutral.

All the models now show the mild Pacific pattern continuing into at least the start of January. The fast Pacific Jet continues to be a dominant theme. This has been our new stuck weather pattern going back to last winter.

That’s why it can be difficult making monthly or seasonal forecasts in weak ENSO regimes. December cold in New England is typically something we see during La Ninas. December to date Recent La Niña composite cold in New England

Sometimes the long range can be more difficult to figure out with multiple areas of weak forcing. Almost impossible to guess which area will tip the scales in one direction or the other. That forcing and Pacific Jet can make the difference in the location and strength of the NEPAC ridge.

The Pacific Jet continues to make headlines.

Have to wait for the CFS best forecast range near the last few days of the month. It doesn’t have much skill before that. Notice the variation in the December forecasts during late November.