bluewave

No surprise that the models are correcting warmer for Halloween from earlier forecasts. Looks like the warm spots can make it to 70 later on the 31st into early on the 1st. Low topped squall potential with gusty winds and heavy downpours early on the 1st. The SE Ridge continues to overperform.

Euro has our next shot at 70 around Halloween. w

Another new hurricane record to add to the list.

70 degrees now at LGA with breaks of sun. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link.shtml?choice=Klga

Looks like their wettest October of the decade. They pulled ahead of 1990 for 8 wettest October. Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER COUNTY AP, NY - Month of Oct Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 2019 7.18 4 2018 4.50 0 2017 4.99 0 2016 3.47 1 2015 4.07 0 2014 5.31 0 2013 0.86 0 2012 4.61 0 2011 4.90 0 2010 4.70 0

Lightning detection picked up lightning in Nassau.

Heavy thunderstorms on Long Island with the back edge coming through.

The heaviest downpours should come near the back edge early this afternoon. Thunderstorms developing now to our SW.

Yeah, the back edge of the cloud deck may be crossing eastern sections around sunset.

The HRRR has sun and 70+ in NJ by around 3 pm. Clearing a few hours later further to the east.

The warm and wet SE Ridge pattern rolls on. Many stations in Florida are experiencing their warmest October on record. We weren’t alone this month with the latest 95 degree heat on record.

Posters will be happy as long as we don’t get one in late December like 2013 and 2015. First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year First Value Last Value Difference Minimum 02-18 (2011) 10-22 (2012) 223 Mean 03-15 11-17 246 Maximum 04-13 (2015) 12-24 (2015) 282 2019 03-15 (2019) 77 - - - 2018 02-21 (2018) 80 11-02 (2018) 73 253 2017 02-24 (2017) 74 11-03 (2017) 76 251 2016 03-09 (2016) 82 11-03 (2016) 74 238 2015 04-13 (2015) 71 12-24 (2015) 71 254 2014 04-11 (2014) 77 11-24 (2014) 74 226 2013 04-08 (2013) 72 12-22 (2013) 71 257 2012 03-08 (2012) 72 10-22 (2012) 71 227 2011 02-18 (2011) 71 11-28 (2011) 72 282 2010 03-18 (2010) 71 10-28 (2010) 76 223

We get warm sectored later in the day after the rain ends. Deep SW flow and 850 mb temps around +15C. Best chance of 70 may be the usual warm spots in NJ.

Euro has a very wet and mild Sunday. Rainfall totals in the 1 to 2 inch range with highs near 70.

The record +IOD may be disrupting or interfering with the MJO. So other factors may play a greater role in our sensible weather. Such as the location of the perma-North Pacific ridge. The NP ridge has been helping to pump the SE Ridge in October. We’ll have to see how this evolves going forward.

It might be a good idea for the NCEP to discontinue these GFS OP runs beyond 240 hrs.

We saw the same cold bias with the snow and cold forecast for this week.

60 degree Octobers are becoming almost as common at LGA as 70 degree Septembers. Even EWR is at 60 this month with NYC not far behind. LGA....+2.1....61.2 EWR....+2.6...60.3 NYC....+2.1...59.9 Time Series Summary for LA GUARDIA AP, NY - Month of Oct Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 2019 61.2 6 2018 59.8 0 2017 65.5 0 2016 61.2 0 2015 58.4 0 2014 60.3 0 2013 60.9 0 2012 60.0 0 2011 58.3 0 2010 60.2 0 Time Series Summary for LA GUARDIA AP, NY - Month of Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 2019 72.1 0 2018 72.8 0 2017 71.5 0 2016 73.8 0 2015 74.1 0 2014 70.4 0 2013 68.1 0 2012 70.7 0 2011 70.7 0 2010 72.5 0

This says it all.

Yeah, the SST’s warm under the areas where the blocking ridges get stuck.The ridge axis keeps building near the Aleutians. So we get a persistent SE Ridge pattern. The warm SST’s and ridges probably enhance each other in the locations where they line up together.

Sunday is all about where the warm front stalls out. Euro PWATS are 1.75”to 2.00”.The record for the last week of October is 1.8”on the OKX sounding climo. We just don’t know yet where the axis of heaviest rains will set up.

Remarkably stable pattern when you average out the whole year so far. The 2010’s stuck weather patterns give new meaning to persistence forecasting. The big challenge this decade has been timing the shifts from one stuck regime to the next.

This persistent -PNA pattern resulted in a big shift west for the Pacific SST warm blob. It moved from near California to the Aleutians since Labor Day. This reflects a pattern with only transient cool downs before the SE Ridge reloads.

Yeah, it really depends on how the typhoon recurve and ET interacts with the pattern. We saw an opposite response with the Nuri recurve in November 2014. That eventually set new low pressure records in the Bering. NYC will get a mild response this time around. Rather than the -18 departure and 22 degree low in November 2014.

NSIDC put out a tweet about the new record departure.