bluewave

I am not sure that Manhattan was ever the greatest spot to radiate at night. It is a narrow island surrounded by water. So NYC probably always needed strong cold air advection to set record lows. I found this UHI study that was published 11 years ago with data through 2002. It found that UHI was already strongly established by around 1900. In addition, the UHI effect isn’t really that much stronger in Central Park than it was back then. They have a bunch of charts and graphs. http://www.theurbanclimatologist.com/uploads/4/4/2/5/44250401/gaffinetal2008nycuhiandtemptrends.pdf

The record colder minimums are really driving the departures this month in NYC. min temp departure....-6.9...max....-4.0.....avg....-5.5

We were more competitive with the late 1880’s on the number of freezes for NYC. This year tied the record of 5 days for the first 2 weeks of November. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature <= 32 Nov 1 to Nov 14 Missing Count 1 2019-11-14 5 0 - 1976-11-14 5 0 - 1933-11-14 5 0 - 1886-11-14 5 0 - 1879-11-14 5 0 - 1871-11-14 5 0 2 2004-11-14 4 0 - 1951-11-14 4 0 - 1926-11-14 4 0 - 1875-11-14 4 0 - 1873-11-14 4 0 - 1869-11-14 4 0

The cold came later last November. It was the 4th coldest 14th-24th on record for NYC. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Nov 14 to Nov 24 Missing Count 1 1880-11-24 30.7 0 2 1873-11-24 34.3 0 3 1882-11-24 35.9 0 4 2018-11-24 36.8 0 5 1933-11-24 37.3 0

This was the 14th coldest first 2 weeks of November in NYC. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Nov 1 to Nov 14 Missing Count 1 1873-11-14 40.4 0 2 1869-11-14 41.2 0 3 1875-11-14 41.8 0 4 1871-11-14 42.0 0 5 1976-11-14 42.3 0 - 1887-11-14 42.3 0 6 1878-11-14 42.4 0 7 1894-11-14 42.8 0 8 1933-11-14 43.2 0 9 1921-11-14 43.9 0 10 1962-11-14 44.1 0 11 1939-11-14 44.3 0 12 1917-11-14 44.5 0 13 1905-11-14 44.7 0 14 2019-11-14 44.8 0

Looks like this weekend may be our last shot at an Arctic air mass for a while. The EPS shifts the coldest air over to Asia as the Aleutian low intensifies and the -EPO relaxes. So any below normal temperatures should be more Pacific origin rather than Arctic. Maybe this Arctic relaxation will translate into a wetter pattern for us.

Cold and dry is the big story this month with the strong -EPO suppression. It’s a flip from the warm and wet in October and the warm and dry in September.

Beautiful sea smoke display today at Pensacola Beach. Record low of 29 at Pensacola going over the warm Gulf.

Yeah, November is our only month during the 2010’s with more record lows than highs. I used Newark since NYC would have had many more record highs if the thermometer was still on the castle instead of under the trees after the move around 1996. Newark ...daily record highs....daily record lows Jan....5...4 Feb....6...4 Mar...5...3 Apr...4....0 May..5...1 Jun...7...0 Jul...10...0 Aug...1....0 Sep...8....1 Oct...5....1 Nov..2....7 Dec..6....0 total...64...21

Yeah, more coastal flooding and beach erosion looks possible for that part of the coast. Not what they wanted to see following Dorian in September and Florence last year.

The most impressive feature in the forecasts going forward will be the pressure gradient along the East Coast. This could be one of the tightest pressure gradients of 2019. The Euro generates hurricane force wind gusts off the Carolinas this weekend.

I know that we have become accustomed to warning level snows by November 15th. But 8 out of 10 years during the 2010’s with at least a T of snow by November 15th is very impressive. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 15 to Nov 15 Missing Count 2019-11-15 T 3 2018-11-15 6.4 0 2017-11-15 T 0 2016-11-15 0.0 0 2015-11-15 0.0 0 2014-11-15 T 0 2013-11-15 T 0 2012-11-15 6.2 0 2011-11-15 5.2 0 2010-11-15 T 0

2 record lows in a row for NYC. It’s also is the 2nd earliest 23 degree reading on record. This is one of the few times that NYC has ever had 3 record lows in any single November. NYC recorded 2 record lows recently in 2017. NYC daily record lows 11/1 30 in 1885 30 in 1869 32 in 1925 11/2 30 in 1887 31 in 1965 31 in 1875 11/3 28 in 1875 30 in 1879 31 in 1912 11/4 25 in 1879 29 in 1951 30 in 1891 11/5 23 in 1879 29 in 1933 29 in 1878 11/6 27 in 1879 29 in 1871 30 in 1953+ 11/7 29 in 1930 30 in 1931 31 in 2012+ 11/8 29 in 2019 29 in 1886 30 in 1992+ 11/9 24 in 1976 27 in 2019 28 in 1971 11/10 25 in 2017 27 in 1914 29 in 2004+ 11/11 24 in 2017 28 in 1933 28 in 1926+ 11/12 25 in 2019 26 in 1926 27 in 1920 11/13 23 in 2019 24 in 1986 26 in 1911+

ISP was the only airport out of EWR-LGA-JFK- BDR to get above a trace of snow. https://twitter.com/iembot_okx?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author ISLIP NY Nov 12 Climate: Hi: 58 Lo: 33 Precip: 0.19 Snow: 0.1

Gorgeous sunset right now.

NYC will make a run on its coldest temperature on record by November 13th.These repeating patterns have been very impressive with the 2nd place finish and daily records in 2017. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Lowest Min Temperature Nov 1 to Nov 13 Missing Count 1 1879-11-13 23 0 2 2017-11-13 24 0 - 1986-11-13 24 0 - 1976-11-13 24 0 3 1920-11-13 25 0 4 1926-11-13 26 0 - 1911-11-13 26 0 - 1874-11-13 26 0 4 2019-11-13 27 2 - 1914-11-13 27 0 11/8 29 in 2019 29 in 1886 30 in 1992+ 11/9 24 in 1976 27 in 2019 28 in 1971 11/10 25 in 2017 27 in 1914 29 in 2004+ 11/11 24 in 2017 28 in 1933 28 in 1926+ 11/12 26 in 1926 27 in 1920 29 in 1894 11/13 24 in 1986 25 in 1920 26 in 1911+

Pretty impressive to see the frozen precipitation making it all the way down to the Rio Grande Valley on November 12th. This Arctic front really means business as it was 86 degrees there yesterday.

Steady light snow in SW Suffolk with the flake size increasing.

37 with the first snowflakes of the season here in SW Suffolk.

Some snowflakes mixing in now in Woodbury.

Snowing now down in DC as precipitation builds back in.

It shows how much snow extent there is at any given time. It is not meant to be a predictive tool. Right now we are near the top just as we were last November. It’s a reflection of the current record cold and snowy November regime.

Yeah, Wantagh just dropped 10 degrees from 54 to 44 in the last hour.

The Euro had 5-6”. But we are in an era of overperforming snowstorms when you are in the jackpot zone. The North American snow extent is right near the top as of the 11th for the period of record.