bluewave

Some recent rainfall reports from NJ Somerset County... Somerville 1.73 in 0901 AM 05/23 CWOP Middlesex 1.63 in 0845 AM 05/23 IFLOWS Blackwells Mills 0.96 in 0905 AM 05/23 CWOP ...Sussex County... 0.7 NE Flatbrookville 1.22 in 0900 AM 05/23 HADS

So far a quick 1-2 inches of rain under the heaviest bands of training thunderstorms.

Radar estimates of 1.00 inch of rain in the last hour with the training thunderstorms near SMQ.

The new HRRR v4 has been doing pretty well this spring. It has areas that get 1-2” under the best banding. But areas outside the main bands will get less.

Euro has first 1-2” rain event since mid-April tonight into Saturday.

There had been a June cool pocket over the Northeast since the super El Niño in 2015-2016.

The last below normal AMJ was in 2003. 2020 39.1 40.1 48.0 50.4 57.2 M 2003 27.5 30.1 43.1 49.8 58.7 68.4

The MJO is only spending a brief period in the warm phases next week. So it quickly returns to the cooler 8-1 phases to start June. This is pretty much opposite of what happened from mid-December through March.

Cool onshore flow continuing into early next week. Then we transition to a warmer 80+ pattern away from the shore. The warm up is followed by the next cool down to start June.

15th negative departure day this month in NYC. TEMPERATURE (F) TODAY MAXIMUM 68 MM 93 1996 72 -4 71 MINIMUM 46 MM 40 1907 55 -9 56 AVERAGE 57 64 -7 64

If you have Verizon FIOS, then just go to on demand search and type In American Experience. It will be the most recent episode. You Tube also has it.

Mr. Tornado was one of the best Meteorology documentaries of the last few years. It’s available on demand if you missed it. https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/films/mr-tornado/

50s along the South Shore. CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS Jones Beach N/A 52 N/A N/A S8 N/A Wantagh N/A 59 46 63 S8 N/A

Record lows this morning at ISP and JFK. It was the 2nd latest last freeze on record at FOK. Frost/Freeze Summary for WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Season Length 2002 05-22 (2002) 32 10-15 (2002) 31 145 2016 05-20 (2016) 32 10-11 (2016) 31 143 2008 05-20 (2008) 31 10-07 (2008) 31 139 2003 05-19 (2003) 32 10-03 (2003) 29 136 2000 05-16 (2000) 30 10-09 (2000) 32 145 2013 05-15 (2013) 32 10-19 (2013) 32 156

This cool pattern since early April really dropped the SST departures to our east. Unusual to see them colder than normal for a change.

It probably is a piece of the puzzle some years. But we were wet during the summer in 2018 with that record WAR. 2017 was a little cooler than average with higher dew points. But a dry summer in the rainfall department. A good chunk of the summer rainfall in 2014 was with that 1000 year deluge over just a few hours. And we can’t forget the record breaking rainfall during the summer of 2011.

Even with the record high dew points since 2016, the only wetter summer than average at Islip was 2018. The lower dew point summers from 2010 to 2014 were wetter. Go figure... JJA average rainfall 11.68” Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Jun through Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 2019 10.64 0 2018 12.94 0 2017 9.41 0 2016 5.25 0 2015 7.27 0 2014 18.82 0 2013 13.21 0 2012 18.54 0 2011 17.02 0 2010 7.67 0

Euro maintains the easterly flow for at least the next week. So coastal sections will continue to be the coolest part of region. Friday into Saturday will probably the only days with some actual rain.

Record rainfall continuing over the Great Lakes. https://weather.com/storms/severe/news/2020-05-05-great-lakes-record-levels-april

Looks like Newark has a shot at top 10 driest May unless we get a heavy rain event near the end of the month. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of May Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 1964 0.52 0 2 1939 0.78 0 3 2020 0.81 13 4 1941 0.98 0 5 1935 1.01 0 6 2005 1.21 0 7 1965 1.23 0 8 1977 1.31 0 9 1986 1.41 0 10 1962 1.46 0

That 1962-1966 drought was the most intense since the 1600’s. The 1966 record heat was at the end of that historic dry period. Our climate has become much wetter and humid since then. https://seaandskyny.com/2012/04/29/trees-tell-the-story-of-500-years-of-nyc-drought-history/

Newark has only reached 70 degrees or higher on 9 days since March 1st. This is the 4 lowest number of days on record through May 18th. Big reversal from years like 2010, 2012, and 2015. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Max Temperature >= 70 Mar 1 to May 18 Missing Count 1 1966-05-18 4 0 2 1978-05-18 7 0 3 1967-05-18 8 0 4 2020-05-18 9 0 - 1997-05-18 9 0 5 1968-05-18 10 0 - 1940-05-18 10 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Max Temperature >= 70 Mar 1 to May 18 Missing Count 1 2012-05-18 29 0 - 2010-05-18 29 0 2 1985-05-18 28 0 - 1977-05-18 28 0 3 1945-05-18 26 0 4 1981-05-18 24 0 - 1976-05-18 24 0 5 2015-05-18 23 0

A great push of spring migrants finally arrived with the warm front late last week. It took a while to get a favorable SW flow for migration.

Probably a better chance of needing the heat than AC next several days. Coastal sections could see 30 to 40 mph easterly gusts on Tuesday. Interior sections should drop into the 30’s early on Thursday.

The continuing IO standing wave may mean that this doesn’t follow the typical developing La Niña playbook. We currently have record SST’s in the Indian Ocean. Typical La Niña summer forcing pattern closer to Maritime Continent Seasonal forecast further West IO forcing