bluewave

MJO 5-7 are the strongest phases for WPAC typhoon development. So LAN's RI is no surprise given the recent record MJO 5 for October.

Looks like the Black Hills area will live up to its reputation for big temperature swings this week. A welcome back to the board to our friend Dakota. RAPID CITY KRAP GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 10/21/2017 0000 UTC FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192 SAT 21| SUN 22| MON 23| TUE 24| WED 25| THU 26| FRI 27| SAT 28 CLIMO X/N 61| 30 73| 41 63| 31 66| 39 72| 36 48| 24 52| 30 58 31 56

5 years after Sandy and some Long Beach residents are still not back in their homes yet. http://www.fios1news.com/longisland/local-hurricane-sandy-long-beach-recovery-5-years-later-oct-13-2017#.WeklDChM4lI

Very rare to see 100+ degree heat for SOCAL in late October.

Yeah, Biloxi had 22 feet of storm surge with Katrina. The closest the Northeast has come to that was 17 feet with the the 38 hurricane in Rhode Island.

The silly #Miami heat record I’m most ready to end- over 20 months since the low has dropped below 50 at MIA. Keeps growing day-by-day toopic.twitter.com/4HBp0Xgpdo 9:05 AM - 13 Oct 2017

Yeah, it's only a matter of time before either EWR or LGA has the first 80 degree average summer.

Check out how big the margin was in Miami for the new record number of 80 degree minimums. I guess this may make some of the LGA area posters jealous. Miami has had 70 days at or above 80 for lows. Previous record was 45 days in 2010 7:44 PM - 11 Oct 2017

September finished just below 5 million sq km near the long term trend line. Or about 1 million sq km below 2006 which was the last summer with such a strong polar vortex over Arctic. Strongest Arctic summer polar vortex since 2006

Record warmth in January before the February blizzard.

Several stations had their warmest 2nd half of September on record by 2-3 degrees.

Congrats!

September 2017 was another top 10 warmest month around the area. EWR...10...LGA...8...JFK...7...BDR...8...ISP...4

Record shattering 2016-2017 water year ends today, with the Northern Sierra 8 Station Index more than 6" higher than previous record! #cawxpic.twitter.com/uTyyJ333Tw 12:55 PM - 30 Sep 2017

Jose provided some great swells for the surfers in Lido Beach.

The last time we had a decent wet pattern here in September was way back in 2011. Pretty impressive dry streak the last several Septembers. The lack of major summer heat in places like Long Island prevented the dry conditions from getting worse than they were this summer. But NNJ did much better in the rainfall dept than Long Island this summer.

Dry conditions expanded west into NY and PA in the latest US drought monitor update yesterday. http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx Northeast Another week of mostly dry weather, accompanied by late-season warmth, led to the introduction of abnormal dryness (D0) in several areas. In addition, moderate drought (D1) persisted in eastern Maine, while dryness was expanded to include the remainder of coastal New England. By September 24, the U.S. Department of Agriculture reported that topsoil moisture was 77% very short to short in Maine, along with 46% in Vermont and 40% in West Virginia. Through September 26, month-to-date rainfall totaled just 1.04 inches (33% of normal) in Elkins, West Virginia, and 0.77 inch (24%) in Massena, New York.

We got really lucky with Gloria. There was an 8-9 foot storm surge along the LI South Shore which hit right near low tide. The actual tide levels were similar to Irene which had a 4-5 surge at high tide. The biggest story with Gloria was the power outages with some shoreline apartments and houses getting their roofs blown off in Suffolk.

Amazing how fast #Maria deteriorated now that it has crossed 30N into #Jose's cold wake pic.twitter.com/bgqm5uwLqz 5:41 AM - 25 Sep 2017

Dozens of water rescues at Long Beach yesterday with this combination of summer in late September and the strong rip currents. http://www.fios1news.com/longisland/Dozens rescued from Long Beach waters after getting caught in rip currents #.WcjxaihM4lI There were dozens of water rescues at the beach in Long Beach on Sunday despite warnings about rough waters and rip currents. “It's the rip current from the hurricane that are out in the ocean, and the people should not be in the water when the lifeguards are not on duty,” Assistant Chief Long Beach Fire Department Rick Digiacomo said. Though lifeguards were not on duty since it is after Labor Day, many of them were at the beach to help Long Beach Fire Department with rescues. While the water was good for surfers, many said the waters were dangerous for the average swimmer. “There’s a lot of undertow. These are hurricane waves, needless to say, they are very unassuming because it looks calm. But in actuality, there’s a tremendous pull on the water, you can get crushed in the water as we saw,” said Theodore Sampieri of St. James. Long Beach fire officials say it’s best for all to stay out of the water when there are no lifeguards on duty.

It's the combination of wind damage and flash flooding that makes this a really difficult recovery for Puerto Rico.

Even with the strongest summer polar vortex pattern since at least 2006, NSIDC extent still finished 8th lowest. Our most favorable years now for sea ice retention are still significantly lower than the most hostile years pre 2005.

The NWS in San Juan just put out a chart showing the deluge there. https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSSanJuan/status/910983698597777409/photo/1

Yeah, the short term rainfall rate for Maria was off the charts. That 1970 event happened over 6 days. http://www.floodsafety.noaa.gov/states/pr-flood.shtml Another case of a slow moving tropical depression, resulting in rainfall over multiple days across the island, set the stage for the devastating floods of October 1970. The focus of the rainfall core shifted from day to day, but some areas experienced copious amounts of rainfall on consecutive days, causing rainfall amounts that could be measured in feet. The highest total over those 6 days was 38.42 inches at Jayuya and 41.68 inches at a station near Jayuya. Jayuya had a 24 hour total of 17 inches.

You have to wonder if that 37.9" rainfall at Caguas is a new record for 24-36 hrs in Puerto Rico. https://waterdata.usgs.gov/pr/nwis/uv/?site_no=50999961&PARAmeter_cd=00045