bluewave

It was the coldest November at JFK since 1996. Just behind 2012 and 5th coldest overall. Time Series Summary for JFK INTL AP, NY - Month of Nov Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1976 40.7 0 2 1967 41.1 0 3 1996 42.4 0 4 1962 42.5 0 5 2019 43.3 0 6 2012 43.6 0 7 2018 44.3 0 - 2002 44.3 0

November continued to be the only fall month during the 2010’s able to generate any cold around here. This was the coldest one of the decade for the area. It was also the 3rd cold November in a row. The decade finishes with 6 colder than normal Novembers to 4 above normal. 2010’s November temperature departures Nov....EWR...NYC...LGA 2019...-4.0....-3.8.....-3.7 2018...-3.1....-3.3....-2.7 2017...-.0.7....-1.1....-0.3 2016...+2.9...+2.1...+4.1 2015...+5.2...+5.1...+5.0 2014...-2.9....-2.4....-2.9 2013...-2.4....-2.4....-2.8 2012...-3.5....-3.8....-3.2 2011..+4.1...+4.2...+3.8 2010..+0.5....+0.2...+1.1

I have no idea where the band may set up. But the forecast soundings have very steep mid level lapse rates and elevated TT’s. So it’s possible somebody gets thunder if that IVT sets up. So many moving parts with this event that it may come down to nowcast time on Monday.

Yeah, IVT’s are notorious for going from nothing to a heavy dump within a few miles. Almost like summer convection.

Models won’t be able to pin down that band location correctly this far out. Almost looks like an IVT which always changes form run to run.

Yeah, you can see how the models have been shifting for days on the P-type , locations, amounts, and temperatures. It’s enough to make some forecasters want to move to a warmer climate without P-type issues.

That’s for sure. All dependent on location. Hopefully, the uncertainty gets conveyed in the forecasts. Get ready for nowcast time.

This one has big bust potential written all over it with so many moving parts.

The exact dry slot placement is always a wild card with these close low set ups.

The coldest NYC has been reach this decade for a DJF average was 2014-2015. It was the only winter to average below freezing during the 2010’s at 31.4 degrees. But it wasn’t close to 1976-1977 which was 28.4 degrees. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1917-1918 25.7 0 2 1880-1881 26.5 0 3 1903-1904 27.3 0 4 1919-1920 27.4 0 - 1874-1875 27.4 0 5 1872-1873 27.7 0 6 1904-1905 28.1 0 7 1935-1936 28.3 0 8 1976-1977 28.4 0 - 1884-1885 28.4 0 - 1882-1883 28.4 0 9 1892-1893 28.5 0 10 1887-1888 28.6 0 11 1878-1879 29.0 0 12 1933-1934 29.1 0 13 1871-1872 29.5 0 14 1922-1923 29.8 0 15 1962-1963 29.9 0 - 1885-1886 29.9 0 - 1876-1877 29.9 0 16 1947-1948 30.0 0 - 1886-1887 30.0 0 - 1883-1884 30.0 0 17 1894-1895 30.2 0 18 1977-1978 30.3 0 19 1969-1970 30.5 0 - 1944-1945 30.5 0 20 1911-1912 30.7 0 21 1958-1959 30.8 0 - 1870-1871 30.8 0 22 1993-1994 31.1 0 - 1934-1935 31.1 0 23 2002-2003 31.2 0 - 1967-1968 31.2 0 - 1909-1910 31.2 0 24 2014-2015 31.4 0 - 1921-1922 31.4 0 25 1898-1899 31.5 0 26 1939-1940 31.6 0 27 1960-1961 31.7 0 - 1916-1917 31.7 0 - 1906-1907 31.7 0 - 1900-1901 31.7 0 28 1913-1914 31.9 0 - 1901-1902 31.9 0

Yes, I just posted that in the climate change forum with all the charts included. The changes to the MJO have become a big part of our 2010’s weather patterns. It shows what we already figured out. The MJO has been spending more time in the Maritime Continent phases due to the rapid SST warming of the Indio-Pacific warm pool.

This November will be remembered for the 4th coldest 8th through 18th on record in NYC. Last year was the 4th coldest 14th through 24th. Outside of February 2015, out coldest periods have been compressed into intervals generally less than 2 weeks long. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Nov 8 to Nov 18 Missing Count 1 1933-11-18 35.6 0 2 1873-11-18 37.3 0 3 1869-11-18 38.7 0 4 2019-11-18 39.1 0 5 1976-11-18 39.5 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Nov 14 to Nov 24 Missing Count 1 1880-11-24 30.7 0 2 1873-11-24 34.3 0 3 1882-11-24 35.9 0 4 2018-11-24 36.8 0 5 1933-11-24 37.3 0

Yeah, this is a record breaking 500mb dipole pattern between the West Coast and Gulf Coast.

Great view of the record breaking storm and supercharged Pacific jet stream.

LGA gusting to 46 mph now. LaGuardia Arpt PTSUNNY 49 31 49 NW31G46 29.74S

Looks like this may be one of our windier Thanksgivings since 1971. White Plains gusting to 40 mph now. Should see more widespread gusts over 40 later this morning into the afternoon with the steepening low level lapse rates. Enjoy your Thanksgiving. It will be much milder than the near record cold last year. White Plains MOCLDY 44 32 62 NW30G40 29 2018 11/22 28 17 0.00 4th coldest high, 2nd coldest low for Thanksgiving

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1764-4 Article Published: 27 November 2019 Twofold expansion of the Indo-Pacific warm pool warps the MJO life cycle Nature volume 575, pages647–651(2019)Cite this article Article metrics 23 Altmetric Metrics details M. K. Roxy, Panini Dasgupta, Michael J. McPhaden, Tamaki Suematsu, Chidong Zhang & Daehyun Kim Abstract The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the most dominant mode of subseasonal variability in the tropics, characterized by an eastward-moving band of rain clouds. The MJO modulates the El Niño Southern Oscillation1, tropical cyclones2,3 and the monsoons4,5,6,7,8,9,10, and contributes to severe weather events over Asia, Australia, Africa, Europe and the Americas. MJO events travel a distance of 12,000–20,000 km across the tropical oceans, covering a region that has been warming during the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries in response to increased anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases11, and is projected to warm further. However, the impact of this warming on the MJO life cycle is largely unknown. Here we show that rapid warming over the tropical oceans during 1981–2018 has warped the MJO life cycle, with its residence time decreasing over the Indian Ocean by 3–4 days, and increasing over the Indo-Pacific Maritime Continent by 5–6 days. We find that these changes in the MJO life cycle are associated with a twofold expansion of the Indo-Pacific warm pool, the largest expanse of the warmest ocean temperatures on Earth. The warm pool has been expanding on average by 2.3 × 105 km2 (the size of Washington State) per year during 1900–2018 and at an accelerated average rate of 4 × 105 km2(the size of California) per year during 1981–2018. The changes in the Indo-Pacific warm pool and the MJO are related to increased rainfall over southeast Asia, northern Australia, Southwest Africa and the Amazon, and drying over the west coast of the United States and Ecuador. Fig. 1: A twofold expansion of the warm pool. Fig. 2: Changes in the MJO life cycle. Fig. 3: Correlation between MJO phase duration and ocean–atmosphere conditions. Fig. 4: Changes in global rainfall in response to the changes in MJO phase duration. Extended Data Fig. 1 Typical life cycle of the MJO. Extended Data Fig. 2 Annual average period of MJO events. Extended Data Fig. 3 Warm pool area in multiple datasets and breakpoint analysis. Extended Data Fig. 4 Correlation between MJO phase duration and ocean–atmosphere conditions, without removing the trends.

Some of the cells crossing the Sound had small hail or graupel.

Yeah, thunderstorm now in Bergen County with the steep mid-level lapse rates.

Looks like the strongest winds tomorrow should be between 10am and 2 pm. Temperatures rising to 50 or higher will steepen the low level lapse rates. So that’s when wind gusts into the 40’s could occur. NEW YORK CITY-KENNEDY KJFK GFS MOS GUIDANCE 11/27/2019 1200 UTC DT /NOV 27/NOV 28 /NOV 29 /NOV 30 HR 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12 N/X 45 53 36 46 31 TMP 56 55 52 52 50 47 45 49 51 50 45 43 40 38 37 42 44 43 39 36 33 DPT 49 46 43 43 40 35 32 31 29 26 24 26 27 24 23 21 19 17 16 14 12 CLD OV OV BK BK BK BK BK BK BK SC FW CL CL CL FW FW FW CL CL CL FW WDR 17 18 22 26 28 28 29 30 32 33 34 33 34 34 33 34 33 34 33 34 34 WSP 09 15 19 21 24 23 19 23 26 24 20 19 15 14 13 14 15 14 14 13 11

NYC is currently the 2nd coldest December of the 2010’s behind 2012 and close to 2018. But we didn’t get the record November snowstorms of 2012 and 2018. The cold departures have been shrinking as the 17th was our last -10 day. That’s when we lost the Arctic air. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Nov Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2012 43.9 0 2 2019 44.0 4 3 2018 44.4 0 4 2014 45.3 0 - 2013 45.3 0 6 2017 46.6 0 7 2010 47.9 0 8 2016 49.8 0 9 2011 51.9 0 10 2015 52.8 0

2 years in a row making a top 10 snowiest November in Caribou.

Yeah, the cold minimums took the lead this month. NYC through 11-25 Max....50.5....-4.2 Min.....36.9....-5.4 Avg.....43.7....-4.8

Absolutely. Great day to get out and see the newly arrived snowy owls.

The first time Newark made it above 60 degrees since November 11th. https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=KEWR&table=1&num=168&banner=off Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 2019-11-01 62 2019-11-02 53 2019-11-03 55 2019-11-04 57 2019-11-05 61 2019-11-06 56 2019-11-07 59 2019-11-08 41 2019-11-09 41 2019-11-10 53 2019-11-11 61 2019-11-12 55 2019-11-13 35 2019-11-14 46 2019-11-15 52 2019-11-16 43 2019-11-17 43 2019-11-18 43 2019-11-19 50 2019-11-20 51 2019-11-21 55 2019-11-22 53 2019-11-23 46 2019-11-24 45 2019-11-25 54 2019-11-26 61 so far